一份罕见的币圈研究报告：玩币无异于赌博

这还没完，瑞士金融研究所(SFI)最近的一项研究追溯了这一过程，证实加密货币就是赌场，玩币无异于赌博。

It's not over yet. A recent study by the Swiss Financial Research Institute (SFI) traced this process, confirming that encrypted money is a casino and that it is a gambling game.

来自瑞士洛桑大学(UNIL)的两位学者Luciano Somoza和Antoine Didisheim分析了瑞讯银行Swissquote（少数几家可以同时提供加密交易服务的受监管银行之一）的随机客户样本数据，在他们研究的77364个活跃账户中，约21%的账户在交易加密货币。

Two scholars from the University of Lausanne (UNIL) in Switzerland, Luciano Somoza and Antoine Didisheim, analysed random client sample data from Swiss Bank Swissquate (one of the few regulated banks that can also provide encryption services), and out of the 77364 active accounts they studied, about 21 per cent of the accounts were traded in encrypted currency.

他们发现，在2020年疫情爆发后，加密货币和股票价格“突然”开始变得高度相关，当时比特币与标普500之间的相关性从0跃升至近60%。

They found that, after the outbreak in 2020, crypto-currency and stock prices began to become “suddenly” highly correlated, when the correlation between bitcoin and pamphlet 500 jumped from zero to almost 60 per cent.

Somoza和Didisheim将此归因于散户投资者的激增。而一家名为Alphaville的机构不禁注意到，金融市场散户交易的激增通常发生在赌徒场地有限、赌场关闭、大多数体育赛事取消的时候。

Somoza and Didisheim attributed this to the proliferation of bulk investors. An agency called Alphaville noticed that the surge in financial market bulk trading usually occurs when gambling grounds are limited, casinos are closed, and most sporting events are cancelled.

调查覆盖到的加密货币投资者似乎确实具有赌博属性：

The encoded currency investors covered by the survey do appear to have gambling properties:

“通过观察持有加密货币的股票经纪人所青睐的股票，我们观察到他们对成长型股票和投机资产的强烈偏好。当经纪商开户一个加密货币钱包时，他们的整体投资组合风险更高，虽然年化回报率更高，但是以波动性为代价——夏普比率显著降低（年化-10.23%）。”

“Observing the shares favoured by stockbrokers holding encrypted currencies, we have observed strong preferences for growing stocks and speculative assets. When brokers open an encrypted wallet of money, their overall portfolio is at higher risk, albeit with higher annualized returns — at the expense of a significantly reduced Sharp ratio (annually 10.23%).”

这两位学者还发现，加密交易者最青睐的股票往往与加密货币价格相关度最高。因为这些投资者要么同时买入加密货币和投机性股票，要么同时卖出。

The two scholars also found that the stock most favoured by cryptographers is often the highest relative to the price of encrypted currency. These investors either buy encrypted money and speculative shares at the same time or sell them at the same time.

当这些交易员持有加密钱包后，他们开始更频繁地查看自己的加密货币账户。

When these traders hold encrypted wallets, they begin to view their encrypted currency accounts more frequently.

另外有趣的是，当这些投资者持有加密钱包时，他们交易股票的频率降低了，所以他们的非加密投资组合的表现得到了改善。

It is also interesting to note that when these investors hold encrypted wallets, the frequency with which they trade shares has decreased, so their unencrypted portfolio performance has improved.

如果假设1)频繁交易对散户投资者不利，2)偏好风险的投资着更有可能开设加密货币账户，这个结果是说得通的。如果投资者能够从加密货币中获得风险敞口，那么他们就不需要热衷于卖出Gamestop的看跌期权了。

If it is assumed that frequent transactions are not to the benefit of the bulk investors, 2) risk-oriented investments are more likely to open encrypted currency accounts, a result that makes sense. If investors get exposure to the risk from encrypted money, they don't need to be interested in selling Gamestop's options.

Somoza和Didisheim表示：

Somoza and Didisheim say:

平均而言，加密货币投资者交易的股票更多，但在打开加密钱包后交易的股票就少了。一种可能的解释是，投资者一旦交易加密货币，对股票的关注就会减少，因此交易频率也会降低。这一结果或许可以部分解释(在他们股票投资组合中)夏普比率较高的原因。

On average, encrypt money investors trade more shares, but less shares when they open their encrypted wallets. One possible explanation is that once investors trade in encrypted currencies, they have less interest in stocks, and therefore less frequency.

总而言之，调查数据“表明以加密货币为导向的散户投资者平均而言更穷、更年轻、更男性化、更活跃、更热衷于冒险”。

In summary, survey data “indicate that bulk investors who are encoded currency-oriented are, on average, poorer, younger, more male, more active and more adventurous”.

但也许，他们还有更多的钱可以浪费在这项赌博上。

But maybe they have more money to waste on this gamble.

可以说他们过得很开心，但也一直很穷。

"Strong" can say they had a good time, but they were always poor.

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