又稱擴張率,它是在對各個經濟指標迴圈波動進行測定的基礎上,所得到的擴張變數在一定時點上的加權百分比。
Also known as magnification rate, is the percentage of rights added to the economic indicator on the basis of the extended variables at a given point in time.
其中:DI(t)為t時刻的擴散指數;Xi(t)為第i個變數指數在t時刻的波動測定值Wi為第i個變數指標分配的權數;N為變數指標總數;I為示性函數;j為兩比較指標值的時間差。
第一步:首先計算各指標各年月距環比發展速度,然後消除季節變動和不規則變動影響,從而使各指標序列比較穩定地反映迴圈波動。
Step 1: First, calculate the monthly distance of each indicator at , and then remove the effects of seasonal and irregular movements by making the indicator sequences more stable to reflect circular movements.
第二步:將每個指標各年月距環比發展速度與其比較基期的發展速度相比,若當月值大,則為擴張,此時I=1;若當月值小,則為收縮,此時I=0;若兩者基本相等,則I=0.5。
Step 2: Compare each indicator with
第三步:將這些指標升降應得的數值相加,即得出“擴張的指標數”,即在t時刻擴張的變數個數。
第四步:以擴張指標數除以全部指標數,乘以100%,即得擴散指數(DI)。
(1) Determination of stages and direction
①0<DI(t)<50%:經濟向擴張方向運動,經濟系統運行於不景氣空間後期;
10< DI(t)< 50%: Economic Growth Campaign, does not operate ;
②50%<DI(t)<100%:經濟運行於景氣空間,經濟狀況發生重大轉折,隨著DI(t)向100%不斷逼近,經濟越來越熱;
250%< DI(t)< 100%: have made a major turnaround in the weather space and the economy has become more intense as DI(t) continues to approach 100%;
③100%>DI(t)>50%:經濟處於景氣空間後期,經濟系統處於降溫階段;
④50%>DI(t)>0:經濟運行發生重大轉折,經濟系統處於全面收縮階段,進入一個新的不景氣空間前期。
Forty-five percent & gt; DI(t) & gt; 0: There has been a major turnaround in economic operations, with the economic system at the full , entering a new pre-disturbing period.
(2)擴散指數在每一個階段停留的時間代表經濟波動在此階段的擴散速度,時間越長,擴散越慢。它在某一點的值,代表經濟波動擴散的程度和範圍。
(3)利用先行擴散指數、同步擴散指數和滯後擴散指數可預測和監控經濟運行。
(4) It is possible to study the relationship between waves and the synchronous spreading curve.
One wave of motion is basically corresponding, and the wavelength is basically the same.
②同步擴散指數曲線的峰值比經濟總量的峰值平均先行四分之一周期長度左右。
The peak of the 2 synchronous spreading index curve is about .
③經濟總量的峰值基本上和同步擴散指數曲線的景氣下轉點相對應。
Deficiencies in spreading the index:
不能很好地反映出經濟的上升和下降的程度,而只能反映上升或下降的方向及轉折位置。
Therefore, there is a need for other methods to be used in conjunction with the spreading index.
假設某工業生產指數包括四個生產部門,計算時權數均為1/4,當月和上月的生產情況如下表所示。
部門 | 本月產量(![]() | 上月產量(![]() | 本月較上月變化(I) |
甲 | 11 | 12 | 0 |
乙 | 40 | 38 | 1 |
丙 | 60 | 50 | 1 |
丁 | 70 | 70 | 0.5 |
則擴散指數為:
And the spread of the index is as follows:
DI= ×100=62.5
上式表明,本月與上月相比多數部門的生產是上升和持平的,即生產處於擴張期。
The above shows that the production of most departments this month was up and flat compared to the previous month, i.e. is in the expansion period.
- ↑ 黎詣遠,程衛平.經濟監測與經濟預警[M].湖南科學技術出版社,1997年11月第1版
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