原标题：
新华社华盛顿5月14日电 财经随笔：跳涨的比特币是多空棋局还是避险港湾
On May 14th, Xinhua's Washington, with money written: Do you think the skyrocketing bitcoin is an empty chess game or a safe haven?
新华社记者杨承霖
Xinhua News Agency journalist Yang Seung-jung
近来，尽管全球市场避险情绪浓厚，比特币却重现火热行情。13日，单枚比特币价格突破8000美元关口，跳涨的比特币是多空棋局还是避险港湾，这再次引发投资者的关注和猜想。
Recently, in spite of global market risk avoidance, Bitcoin has re-emerged. On 13, a single bitcoin broke through the $8,000 threshold, and whether the soaring bitcoin was a multi-air chess game or a safe haven again triggered investors’ attention and conjecture.
市场分析人士认为，本轮比特币上涨动力尚不明确，市场操纵和短期因素仍不排除。尽管一些加密货币的拥趸认为比特币是数字黄金，但鉴于其历史相对还很短暂，加上其大起大落的行情，能否成为新的避险资产目前还有待谨慎观察。
Market analysts argue that the momentum for this round of bitcoin rise is not yet clear, and market manipulation and short-term factors are not yet ruled out. Although some encrypted currencies have a tendency to consider bitcoin as digital gold, given its relatively short history, combined with its large ups and downs, it remains to be seen with caution whether it can become a new risk-free asset.
比特币逆势跳涨韧性增强
bitcoin inverted resilience
近期比特币涨势强劲，美国“比特币基地”公司数据显示，比特币价格自5月1日零时的5317.4美元一路波动攀升，14日曾一度冲高至8291.23美元，涨幅超过50%。
The recent strong growth in bitcoin, the United States & ldquo; the Bitcoin base & rdquo; company data show that Bitcoin prices have increased from $5317.4 at 0000 on 1 May to $829.23 on 14 days, a 50 per cent increase.
比特币的概念于2008年提出，并在2009年正式诞生。回顾过去，上一次比特币价格大幅跳涨发生在2017年底，单枚价格一度冲破19000美元。尽管当时也有朝美关系紧张等风险因素存在，但美股价格处于上行通道，而价格与股市同步上涨的比特币，并没有展现出避险资产所具备的“反向波动”特征。随后，比特币价格触顶跌落，大幅下挫直至跌破4000美元。可见，一年多以前的比特币市场投机特征相对更为明显。
The Bitcoin concept was introduced in 2008 and was officially born in 2009. Looking back, the last significant surge in Bitcoin prices occurred at the end of 2017, with a single price breaking by $19,000.
一直以来，比特币因价格波动幅度大而被投资者视为高风险资产，近期比特币却在市场风险不断累积膨胀的环境下“独领风骚”，因而有市场人士称其具备作为避险资产的功能。
Bitcoin has long been regarded as a high-risk asset by investors because of large price fluctuations, while recently Bitcoin has been in an environment of growing market risk & & & & & & & rdquao; thus marketers claim that it has a role as a hedge asset.
加密货币资管咨询公司Interchange联合创始人丹·赫尔德表示，比特币此番“复苏”显示出其在避险交易上的潜力。英国《金融时报》专栏作家杰迈玛·凯莉日前撰文称，相较近期下跌的其他风险资产，比特币逆势上扬的表现显示出其避险资产的特性。
Dan & Middot, co-founder of the encrypt currency consulting firm Interchange; Helde said that Bitcoin & ldquo; recovery & rdquao; and showed its potential for risk avoidance transactions. Jemima & Middot, a columnist in the British Financial Times; and Kelly’s recent writings that other risk-related assets that have fallen recently showed the characteristics of Bitcoin’s exposure to risk avoidance assets.
此外，本轮比特币上涨行情也比以往展现出更多韧性。知名加密货币交易所币安近日传出7000多个比特币遭遇盗取，但该消息并未显著削弱比特币价格涨势。相关专业机构人士表示，市场未对负面消息做出太大反应或许是“比特币寒冬”结束的关键迹象。
The recent theft of more than 7,000 bitcoins from a well-known encrypted currency exchange has not significantly weakened the price rise in bitcoins. According to the professionals concerned, the market has not reacted too much to negative news, perhaps & ldquao; bitcoin is cold & rdquao; key signs of closure.
投资者担忧存在价格操纵
然而，不少投资者和学者认为，此次价格上涨背后的深层原因尚不明确，多空博弈仍是比特币市场价格波动的主因，不排除存在市场操纵的可能，将比特币视作避险资产或许还为时尚早。
However, many investors and scholars argue that the underlying reasons behind this price increase are not yet clear, that multispace games remain the main cause of price volatility in the Bitcoin market, that market manipulation is not ruled out, and that it may be too early to consider Bitcoin as a hedge asset.
美国商品期货交易委员会前主席蒂姆·马萨德认为，没有人真正知道上涨的原因，操纵可能是一个因素，因为与其他市场相比，这个市场缺乏监管和透明度。
Tim & Middot, the former Chairman of the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission, argued that no one really knew the reasons for the increase and that manipulation could be a factor because of the lack of regulation and transparency of the market compared to other markets.
美国得克萨斯州大学金融学教授约翰·格里芬认为，操纵很可能是近期市场走势的背后原因。
John & Middot, Professor of Finance, University of Texas, United States; Griffin believes that manipulation is probably behind recent market developments.
老派投资者对于比特币尤其抱持怀疑态度。在5月初举行的2019年伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司股东大会上，长期秉持“价值投资”理念的沃伦·巴菲特将比特币称为“赌博机”。他说，比特币“从未生产任何东西”，但诞生比特币的区块链技术有“很大前景”。
Old-school investors were particularly skeptical about Bitcoin. At the 2019 Birkhshire-Hasaway Shareholders Conference in early May, long-standing & ldquo; value investment & rdquo; the conceptual Warren & Middot; Buffett called Bitcoin & ldquo; the Gaming Machine & rdquo; he said that Bitcoin & ldquo; never produced anything & rdquao; & ldquao; & & & & rdquao; & & rdquao;
对于接下来比特币的走势，分析人士预计比特币行情已引起投资者的兴趣。富拓外汇研究分析师卢克曼·奥图努加表示，比特币价格的“黄金交叉”已经出现。在投资分析中，这代表50日移动平均线与200日移动平均线形成交叉后进一步走高，意味着价格的短期走势强于长期走势，但真实行情仍需继续观察并得到市场验证。
For the next movement of Bitcoin, analysts expect that Bitcoin’s movement has attracted interest from investors. The foreign-exchange research analyst Lucman & Middot; Otunuga states that the price of Bitcoin & ldquo; the gold cross & rdquo; has already appeared. In investment analysis, this represents a further upswing after the 50-day average of movement and the 200-day average of movement, meaning that the short-term trend of prices is stronger than the long-term, but true implementation still needs to continue to be observed and validated by the market.
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