要说所有币种里面，最为特殊的一个，比特币毫无疑问的当属第一。
In all currencies, the special one, bitcoin, is undoubtedly number one.
它是所有币的祖师爷， 区块链的开创者，市值与价格最高者，减半后价格不降者，最多交易所支持者，大多数人都知道好却没买的……
It's the grand master of all the coins, the founder of the block chain, the highest market value and pricer, the lowest price after half, the biggest supporter of the exchange, most people know it's good but not bought...
最近比特币的手续费激增到了5美金开外，导致BTC的手续费收入一度占到了整个区块收入的接近20%，而之前的绝大多数时间，手续费占比只有1%-5%之间，区块奖励仍旧是矿工收入的主要来源。
The recent surge in bill charges in Bitcoin to $5, which led BTC to earn nearly 20% of the revenue for the block as a whole at a time when the majority of the time before
看看其他几个主流币种，ETH热火朝天的在进行ETH2.0的准备仪式，阶段0即将上线，BCH刚刚进行了一次重要的硬分叉升级， BSV以平均每天一个的新应用疯狂探索使用场景；波卡，Filecoin摩拳擦掌准备主网上线……
Look at several other mainstream currencies: ETH is on the verge of the ETH 2.0 preparatory ceremony, phase zero is about to go online, BCH has just made an important hard fork upgrade, BSV is exploring the use of the scene with an average of one new application per day; BSV, Filecoin, Filecoin rubbing hands to prepare the main online line...
似乎只有BTC，笑看你们折腾来折腾去，我自稳坐钓鱼台，不动如山。
It seems like it's just the BTC, laughing at you tossing around, and I'm sitting on a fishing table and I'm not moving as fast as a mountain.
不信，看看这张对比图：
I don't believe it. Look at this comparison:
2018年5月 - 2020年5月价格对比
May 2018 - May 2020 price comparison
几乎所有的主流，都风光不再，唯有BTC，依旧独孤求败。
Almost all of the mainstream is gone, and the BTC is still the only one who wants to lose.
然而这次减半，也让比特币的网络安全模型再次引起人们的关注，毕竟，比特币之所以如此值得让人信赖，跟他过去10年从未有过“宕机”，或是“双花”之类无比安全健壮的去中心化系统有关，而维护这个系统强健的人，就是我们“可爱的矿工”。
This time, however, the halving of Bitcoin's cyber-security model is another source of concern. After all, Bitcoin is so trustworthy that he has never had a “breathing machine” in the last 10 years, or an incredibly safe decentralized system such as a “double flower”, which is being maintained by our “cute miners”.
但正如亚当斯密那只看不见的手所描述的那样“我们期望的晚餐并非来自屠夫、酿酒师或是面包师的恩惠，而是来自他们对自身利益的特别关注”，比特币系统的安全，同样是来自矿工对于利益的追逐。而这里的利益，在过去10年内，绝大多数，来自于区块奖励。
But as Adam Smith's invisible hand described, “we expect dinner not from the butcher, the brewer or the baker, but from their special interest in their own interests”, the security of the `strong' bitcoin system, and the pursuit of the interests of the miners. And the interests here, over the last 10 years, are mostly from block awards.
于是乎有人开始担心 - 到了2140年，区块奖励没有了？到时候比特币的安全，谁来维护呢？
So someone started to worry -- by 2140, the block reward was gone? By then, who's gonna keep Bitcoin safe?
这个问题乍一听，似乎有些杞人忧天，毕竟2140年还有120年，现在去担心120年之后的事情，是不是有些“太早”了？说句不好听的话，到时候比特币安不安全，咱们基本上都看不到了…
At first sight, there seems to be a problem. After all, 120 years in 2140, and now you're worried about 120 years later, is there a "too early"? If it's bad, then bitcoin's not safe, and we can't even see it...
然而作为人类历史上如此重要的一个“伟大发明”，站在现在去展望或者说担心100年后的事，也并非毫无意义，不然为何会有“百年大计”这一说？或者说，我们把时间提前100年，看看够得到的2040年，在经历5次减半之后的BTC，可能会发生什么？
But as a “great invention” so important in the history of mankind, it's not meaningless to stand now and look forward to, or worry about, a hundred years later. Why else would there be a “100-year plan”?
到时候，每个区块的奖励，会从现在的6.25，降低到0.195个，比起完全没有区块奖励，其实已然差距不大。
By that time, the incentive per block will be reduced from the current 6.25 to 0.195, and there will be no difference between and the total absence of block incentives.
你猜，到时候会是怎样一个局面？
Guess what's going to happen?
01
猜想1：最简单粗暴的方式 - 暴涨
conjecture 1: the simplest and most violent way - skyrocketing
假设20年后链上TX和现在依旧保持接近的水平，那么比特币的价格从现在的一万美金，涨到30万美金，才可以保持矿工的收入与整个网络的安全性与现在持平。
Assuming TX on the chain remains close after 20 years, then the price of Bitcoin will rise from the current $10,000 to $300,000 to keep the miners' income at the same level as the safety of the network.
当然，在这种情况下，当比特币网络出现拥堵时，手续费的费用可能同样是一个吓人的数字。2017年比特币在接近2万美金时的手续费达到了20-30美金，使得一切小额转账失去意义，而30万美金的比特币，拥堵时刻的手续费可能会达到几百美金，使得几乎只有大额转账才有存在的意义。
Of course, in this case, when the Bitcoin network is crowded, the fee may also be a scary figure. In 2017, the bill for bitcoin was $20-30 when it was close to $20,000, rendering all small transfers meaningless, while $300,000 for bitcoins, which may be hundreds of dollars at the time of congestion, making almost a large transfer meaningful.
这种猜想下，比特币将会以完全“纯数字黄金”的形态所存在，拥有着黄金所拥有的许多特性 - 完善的期货交易，最为广泛的知名度与共识，抗通胀，以及 - 不方便使用……换句话说，在这种猜想下，比特币不是给你用的，而是单纯的作为资产投资/投机来使用。
Under this assumption, Bitcoin will be present in the form of completely “purely digital gold”, with many of the characteristics of gold - perfect futures trading, the widest possible visibility and consensus, anti-inflationary, and not easy to use... In other words, under this assumption, bitcoin will be used not as an asset, but simply as an investment/speculation of assets.
当然，这种猜想大概率不具备可持续性，毕竟按照同样的逻辑再往下推个几十年，当区块奖励只有0.01，甚至0.0001的时候，比特币的价格真的要到几百万，甚至上千万美金么？那市值得多大？不敢想不敢想...
Of course, the probability is not sustainable. After all, it's the same logic to push it down for decades. When the block reward is just 0.01, or even 0.0001, is it really worth millions, or even tens of millions of dollars? How much is it worth?
02
猜想2：闪电网络的普及+可能会有的缓慢扩容
这是相对来讲，笔者认为可行的一种路线，即，比特币在“数字黄金”与“数字现金”之间，做了一个平衡。
This is a relative route that I think is feasible, i.e. bitcoin makes a balance between “digital gold” and “digital cash”.
在这种路径下，闪电网络将会是实现此种猜想的重中之重，毕竟想要把1M区块的比特币用起来，单单依靠主链的体验肯定是完全不行，链下的闪电网络才是打开“使用”这道门的金钥匙。
Under such a path, the lightning network will be at the centre of such assumptions, after all, in order to use bitcoin from block 1M, the experience of relying solely on the main chain must be completely impossible. The flash network under the chain is the golden key to opening the door to “use”.
闪电网络发展至今接近3年的时间，在2019年初因为闪电网络火炬大火特火了一把，此后进入了“销声匿迹”模式，在过去一年里并没有取得太多进展，整个网络锁定的BTC依旧不足1千，远不及人们对其预期。
The lightning network, which has been growing for almost three years now, entered the “disappearance” model at the beginning of 2019 because of a flashlight on the network, and has not made much progress in the past year. The BTC, which is locked in the network as a whole, is still less than 1,000, far from what is expected.
去年年末，有研究人员专门发表论文，论述了闪电网络当前的经济激励模型，并指出“目前，闪电网络几乎没有为支付路由提供经济激励。较低的路由费用并不能充分补偿路由节点”。
At the end of last year, researchers devoted their papers to the current economic incentive model of the Lightning Network, noting that “the Lightning Network currently offers little economic incentive to pay for the route. Lower route costs do not fully compensate for the route node”.
而除了众所周知的“容易导致中心化，经济机理模型不理想，安全性不如主链，无法支持大额交易”等问题之外，闪电网络还有一个很大的限制，那便是1M大小的区块限制。
In addition to the well-known issues of “the ease of centralizing, the poor economic mechanism model, the insecurity of the main chain, and the inability to support large-scale transactions”, there is a significant limit to the Lightning Network, which is a block limit of 1M size.
我们想象一个相对极端点的场景，比特币20年后得到了广泛的普及，有10亿的用户，每天平均每人发送一笔交易。
We imagine a relatively extreme scenario that became widely available 20 years later, with 1 billion users sending an average of one transaction per person per day.
在1M的区块下，每区块大约可以包含最多3000笔交易，比特币10分钟一个块，每天能产出144个区块，可以包含最多大概43万笔交易 - 显然，这对于10亿用户来说杯水车薪，因此，必须依靠闪电网络才有希望。
Under 1M blocks, each block can contain a maximum of 3,000 transactions, one block in 10 minutes in Bitcoin, and a maximum of 144 blocks per day, with a maximum of approximately 430,000 transactions - apparently, for 1 billion users, it is only promising to rely on a lightning network.
然而问题来了，在第一次使用闪电网络的时候，是需要生成一个闪电网络钱包，并向这个钱包里转账，打开通道，支付矿工费用，等待主网确认，才能开始使用闪电网络。
The problem arises, however, when the lightning network was first used, it was necessary to generate a lightning network wallet and to transfer it to it, open access, pay for miners and wait for confirmation from the main network before it could begin to use the lightning network.
换句话说，如果真的有10亿人想要使用闪电网络的话，那么单单每个人打开一次通道，就需要10亿次TX，按照1M区块每天43万交易，每年1亿5千万的交易数量来算，单是10亿人开通道这事儿，就得6年才能处理完，期间还不能处理别的主链交易。
In other words, if one billion people really want to use the lightning network, it will take one billion TXs per person to open the tunnel, counting the volume of transactions at 1M block 430,000 per day, at 150 million per year, and it will take six years to open the channel alone, and it will not be possible to deal with other main chain transactions during that period.
所以要么在愿景上大幅减少用户数量，要么开始缓慢扩容，毕竟，BTC与BCH/BSV的主要分歧在于树莓派（个人电脑）可以掌握全节点，那么未来10-20年随着个人电脑存储，计算，带宽的提高，BTC缓慢扩容到2M,4M,8M甚至更高并不会太过意外，只要依旧符合个人电脑全节点要求即可。
The main difference between BTC and BCH/BSV, after all, is that the whole node can be captured by the strawberry pies (personal computers), so that the slow expansion of BTC to 2M, 4M, 8M and even higher will not be surprising over the next 10-20 years as personal computers are stored, calculated and bandwidth increases.
刚才的模型，如果区块大小达到8M，用户数量从10亿降低到一亿，是不是看上去感觉舒服很多，也现实了许多？
Did the model just appear to be much more comfortable and realistic if the size of the blocks reached 8M and the number of users dropped from 1 billion to 100 million?
当然，即便如此，也还得闪电网络到时候给力才行。
Of course, even so, the lightning network will have to be strong in time.
03
猜想3：增发 or 换算法 or 换共识
这些方式目前来看，存在的可能性很小。
For the time being, these modalities are unlikely to exist.
增发可能是解决区块减半的最容易方式，但几乎不会有人会这么干，毕竟总量恒定是大家对于比特币价值共识最为核心的要素，没有之一。但去年圆桌会议上一个以太坊社区的开发者提了一嘴，还是引起了整个圈子的渲染大波，未来几十年会不会再有人提？我想几乎是很肯定的，虽然依旧认为，这不太可能。
But last year’s round table, a developer of the community in the neighborhood raised a mouth, or caused the whole circle to rewrite, and no one will do it in the coming decades? I think it is almost certain, though it is not possible.
换算法么，两个可能性，一是哪天量子计算机真的可以破解比特币的Sha256，二是面临BCH/BSV对于算力争夺的力不从心，第一种情况下没毛病，第二种情况下，主动避战会成为“怂”的表现，作为老大，一旦漏了怯，也就离下面人上位不远了，所以无论如何，不太可能发生。
至于将共识机制改为POS，可能性更小，但不能说为零，毕竟，ETH就是这么做的。既然以太坊能做，比特币为什么不能做呢？尤其是2140年没有了节点奖励之后，逻辑上看，转为POS也不是完全不可能。 It is even less likely that the consensus mechanism will be changed to POS, but it cannot be said to be zero , after all, that ETH did. Why can't Bitcoin do it if it is possible to do it? Especially after the node reward in 2140, it is not logically impossible to convert to POS. 但不管怎么说，猜想3都有那么些无厘头的意味在里面，算是可能性最小的一种猜想。 But, in any case, conjecture 3 has all these incoherences, which are the least likely. 04 04 这可能是大区块党最为喜闻乐见的结局，毕竟，当初“分家”的时候，可不和平，虽然现在看似各走各的路，BTC电子黄金，BCH电子现金，BSV底层公链，然而都用SHA256的事实注定，三者不可能永远这样一直“和平共处”下去，对于算力的争夺，终有一天会达到白热化。 This may be the most pleasant ending of the Great Block Party, which, after all, was not peaceful at the time of the “separation” of the family, although it now appears to be a different path: 换句话说，当前三者的定位都还在初期，而20年后，相信都已经达到了自身路线的繁荣/鼎盛期，而若是假设三者均在各自路线上发展不错，会发生什么？ In other words, the three are still in the early stages, and 20 years later, it is believed that they have reached the boom/boom of their own course, and what would happen if all three were to develop well on their respective routes? 我想届时BCH也许已经达到GB级别的区块，上面充斥着大量将BCH作为现金使用的交易TX，以及通过SLP协议发行的Token TX （比如基于BCH SLP发行的USDT）。 I think that then the BCH may have reached its GB level, with a large number of transactions using BCH as TX in cash, and the Token TX (e.g. USDT based on BCH SLP) issued through the SLP protocol. 而BSV那边，可能区块早已扩充到了TB级别，上面充斥着大量DAPP用户产生的TX，以及各种支持小微支付的场景。 On the BSV side, it is possible that the blocks have been extended to the TB level, and are filled with TX generated by a large number of DAPP users, as well as various scenarios that support small payments. 那么显然，若是此种场景出现，BCH/BSV上的手续费收入将大大超过届时的区块奖励，占据矿工的主要收入来源，并随着区块的逐步增大呈递增趋势。反观另一端的BTC，即使黄金路线进入成熟期，在面临此情此景时必然面临一个困境，即（假设20年后BTC：BCH：BSV价格比依旧如现在一样）：链上TX手续费如果太高，则用的人会很少，整体区块收益必然落后两个大区块的同行，TX手续费低的话，1M的小区快打满也产生不了太多收益，区块收益依旧远落后于BCH/BSV。在区块补贴只有0.2的情况下，导致算力将不断往竞争对手处倾斜，直到达到一个三者新的算力/难度/价格/收益的平衡点。 If this scenario were to emerge, then it would be clear that the processing fee on 于是乎，此种猜想下唯一可以维持BTC相对于BCH/BSV王者地位的，必须是高涨的币价。或者换句话说，要维持算力不向BCH/BSV大量倾斜，必须保证BTC价格的增速>=两位竞争的对手（价格+链上TX）的增速，方可维持现在之地位。否则的话，只会看到BCH与BSV相对于BTC越来越趋近的价格与算力。 So, the only way to maintain BTC’s status vis-à-vis BCH/BSV kings is to have high currency prices. Or, in other words, to maintain arithmetic that does not tilt significantly toward BCH/BSV, 当然，这是建立在BCH/BSV两者路线成功的基础之上，就目前而言，其难度，都要比BTC安稳的做好数字黄金大的多。 This, of course, is based on the success of both the BCH/BSV route, which, for the time being, is much more difficult than BTC's sound digital gold.
猜想4：逐渐衰退？
guess 4: Decline?
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