现在的加密市场，就像乍暖还寒的北方初春，突然有那么几天热得要命，等你刚减了衣服，马上跟上几天冷得要死，没有及时加衣的人甚至要被这气温的忽上忽下折腾地生了病。
Now the encryption market, like the warm and cold beginning of the northern spring, is suddenly so hot that when you just lose your clothes, it's so cold that you keep up for a few days, and people who don't put their clothes on in time are sick even when they get caught up in the heat.
老话儿说得好，春捂秋冻。春天的人，刚刚从冬天的寒冷中过来，还不能突然适应，稍微穿暖一点儿，宁热勿冷，避免节节攀升的气温突然杀个回马枪，感了风寒。
That's the old saying. Springs are freezing. People in spring, coming from the cold of winter, can't get used to it. It's a little warmer. It's cool.
减衣如加仓。
Wear less like a silo.
刚刚过去这一轮，3万刀以下，那是严冬。时间上自2022年6月份起，至2023年10月份止。
Just past this round, under 30,000 dollars, it's a harsh winter, starting in June 2022 and ending in October 2023.
3万刀到6万多刀，乃至于突破了2021年前高，时间上2023年10月份至今2024年4月，马上就要产量减半，这是刚刚冬去春来，步入了冷热相交的初春。
Between 30,000 and 60,000, and even as high as 2021 years ago, between October 2023 and April 2024, production was about to be halved in the early spring of the winter.
蒌蒿满地芦芽短，正是河豚欲上时。
The cassava is so short that it's when the dolphins want to go up.
减衣要慢慢地减，加仓要慢慢地加。别一看到气温蹭地上去了，中午晌儿的大太阳照着，户外一活动，就要流汗，于是便一把脱了外套和毛衣，直接穿起了短袖T恤。更有甚者直接脱个精光，一个猛子扎到仍然刺骨的海水里去游泳。这就很容易着凉。
The clothes have to be reduced slowly, and the load has to be increased slowly. Not as soon as you see the temperature going up, the sun is shining at noon, and the outdoors are sweating, so you take off your coats and sweaters and wear your short-sleeve t-shirts. And then you take off your skin, and you get a strong one and you can swim in the sea that's still thorny. That's easy to cool.
不必焦虑，不要急躁。春天已经来了，夏天还会远吗？
Don't worry, don't hurry. Spring's here. Is summer far away?
极目远眺，在BTC（比特币）的前方，蜿蜒崎岖的，只有一条路，那就是向上。
Out of sight, in front of the BTC, there is only one road, and that is up.
挫折是暂时的，而胜利是必然的。
Frustration is temporary, and victory is inevitable.
上小学的娃儿问我“信念”这个词是什么意思。我说，信念的意思就是你坚定地相信，一定会成功，一定会取得胜利。
The boy in primary school asked me what the word "belief" meant. I said that faith meant that you firmly believed in success and victory.
偶然看到有人谈论黄金和BTC的比值（汇率）。目前BTC/t.oz（金衡盎司）大约是 $2384 / $63400=0.0376。这个汇率的历史极值是0.028。时间点想必大家也能猜到，正是2021年的两个小牛顶附近，即2021年4月和11月。
By chance, some talk about the ratio of gold to BTC (exchange rate). The current BTC/t.oz (Golden ounce) is about $2384/$63400 = 0.0376. The historical polar value of this exchange rate is 0.028. The point of time, as you can imagine, is just around two calf peaks in 2021, in April and November 2021.
上图中，紫色虚线便是过去近15年来黄金和BTC的汇率走势。两个红色箭头，指出了2021年4月和11月两次到达历史新低。在过去，如图中黑色箭头所指示的那样，每次该汇率重新跌破此前极值点，就会引发一波BTC的暴涨，从而将汇率推到一个新低的水平。
In the above figure, the purple dot line represents the trend in the exchange rates of gold and BTC over the past 15 years. The two red arrows, pointing out that they reached a historical low twice in April and November 2021. In the past, as indicated by the black arrows in the figure, each time the exchange rate fell back to its previous polar point, it triggered a wave of BTC surges, pushing the exchange rate to a new low level.
有人曾表示担心。担心美元如果真的不行了，那么BTC岂不是无法计价了？
Some people have been worried. Are you worried that if the dollar doesn't work, the BTC won't be able to count?
这种思维，简直就和担心“没了企业家，那么岂不是没人给打工人发工资”，或者“没了地主，那么岂不是没人把地租给农民耕种”一样脑袋生锈。这种人的脑袋里，非得有一个“皇帝”不可。
It's just like worrying that, “Without entrepreneurs, no one pays the workers” or “without landlords, no one rents the land to farmers to cultivate it.” This kind of person has to have an emperor in his head.
没了张屠户，还吃带毛猪？
Without a butcher, you want to eat with a pig?
AI要颠覆上层建筑，而不是经济基础。你看看，黎巴嫩都搞出来世界上第一位AI（人工智能）总统了。AI都正式当总统了，离取代企业家和经理人还远吗？
AI's going to destabilize the upper buildings, not the economic base. Look, Lebanon's got the world's first AI president. AI's officially president. Is it far from replacing entrepreneurs and managers?
关键是，这个AI不能是“中心化”的，即不能被一个幕后老板或者单一利益集团所控制，它必须是“去中心化”的，代表整体的利益，而不能只代表某个利益集团或某个人的特殊利益。
The point is that this AI cannot be “centralized”, i.e. it cannot be controlled by a behind-the-scenes owner or a single interest group, but it must be “decentralized”, representing the interests of the whole, not just the special interests of an interest group or of a person.
就像BTC。BTC不代表矿工集团的单方面利益，不代表开发者们的单方面利益，也不代表任何一个单一群体的单方面利益。BTC代表的，是整个BTC生态全体参与者的整体利益。
Like BTC. BTC does not represent the unilateral interests of a mining group, the unilateral interests of developers, or the unilateral interests of any single group. BTC represents the overall interests of all BTC ecological participants.
曾有企业家朋友扬言说，未来AI要淘汰全部的底层劳动者，届时他这样的老板们则有AI给他们不眠不休地干活，爽歪歪。依我看，这实在是属于资产阶级立场的胡思乱想。我敢大胆地推测，就算等到AI全面取代和消灭整个企业家及其代理人阶层的时候，可能掏粪工、清洁工和水管工都还不会失业。
A friend of an entrepreneur once threatened that the future AI would eliminate all the workers from the bottom, and that at that time the owners of his kind would have AI working with them in their sleep. In my opinion, this is a conundrum of bourgeois thinking. I dared to assume that even when AI completely replaced and eliminated the entrepreneurs and their proxies, it might not be unemployed.
人类迟早发现，在统御全局和战略决策上面，人不如计算机。
Sooner or later, human beings find themselves worse than computers in global and strategic decision-making.
在货币政策问题上，美联储的几个老头一开会，就决定全世界的命运。我相信，他们几个人类的决策，一定比不上BTC这样不受任何人干扰的计算发行。
When it comes to monetary policy, some of the Fed’s old men meet to determine the fate of the world. I believe that their few human decisions cannot be compared to BTC’s undisturbed calculations.
美元衰退是历史的必然。这符合天道。没有什么东西，能够不盛极而衰。
The dollar recession is a historical necessity. That's the way it is. There's nothing to lose.
当世界习惯了几十年的价值参照物衰退的时候，各种法币、各类资产，势必要重新寻找价值锚点。
When the world is accustomed to decades of decline in value comparators, it is necessary to look for value anchors in various currencies, types of assets.
美元的锚是什么？
What's a dollar anchor?
1971年布雷顿森林体系解体前，美元的锚是黄金。有多少黄金，才能发行多少美元。
Before the break-up of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the United States dollar was anchored in gold. How much gold could be released.
布雷顿森林解体后，美元的锚是什么？有人说是石油。甚至编造出石油美元的说法。
What was the anchor of the dollar after the break-up of the Bretton Woods? Some say it was oil. They even made it up.
但是，显然，石油美元和黄金美元根本不是一个意思。黄金美元，是按照黄金的储备量来决定美元的发行量。石油美元，却是强制只有美元才能购买石油。
But, obviously, oil dollars and gold dollars do not mean anything at all. Gold dollars determine the distribution of dollars based on gold reserves. Oil dollars impose that only dollars can buy oil.
在960万平方公里内，只有人民币才能买馒头。但我们不能说人民币的锚是馒头吧？
Within 9.6 million square kilometres, only RMB can buy buns. But we can't say that RMB anchors are buns?
石油美元，是一个构词法的障眼法。美元的锚不是石油本身，而是强制石油必须以美元结算的强制力 —— 美国对全世界的强制力，本质上，就是武力。武力本质是军力，军力本质是暴力。
Oil dollars are a barrier to the word. The anchor of the dollar is not the oil itself, but the force that forces oil to be settled in dollars -- the force of the United States against the world, in essence, force. Force is by nature military force, and force is by nature violence.
脱锚黄金的美元，从一个和平货币蜕变成了一个暴力货币。
The unincorporated gold dollar has been transformed from a peaceful currency to a violent currency.
黄金美元是和平的，因为黄金是和平的。黄金是和平的，因为黄金不能生息。
Gold dollars are peaceful, because gold is peaceful. Gold is peaceful, because gold cannot survive.
黄金不能自动增殖自身。金原子不能生出小金原子。黄金不能天然生息，因此它没有“租”。黄金没有“租”，也就没有暴力和剥削。
Gold does not automatically breed itself. Gold atoms do not produce small gold atoms. Gold does not produce natural rents, so it does not rent. Gold does not rent, and there is no violence and exploitation.
BTC也不能生息。1 BTC恒等于1 BTC。因此，BTC也是和平的，而不是暴力的和剥削的。（相反的，PoS代币的存币生息，终极意义就是暴力剥削，若无暴力可保证剥削，那么其价值必然衰落）
The BTC does not survive either. 1 BTC is always equal to 1 BTC. Thus, BTC is peaceful, not violent and exploitative.
BTC的锚从来都不是美元。只是因为现在大家拿美元换BTC，所以习惯上用美元来计价而已。BTC的锚是能量。这能量，最终来自于宇宙中的恒星。
BTC's anchor is never a dollar. It's just because you're using it for BTC now. BTC's anchor is energy. It comes from stars in the universe.
BTC锚定能量的方式，也完全不同于当年美元锚定黄金的方式。
The way in which the BTC anchors its energy is also completely different from the way in which the dollar anchored gold in that year.
当年美元锚定黄金，是把黄金保存在仓库中，据此发行等量的美元。问题就是，当黄金亏空，或者美元过量时，资产负债表就成为一纸谎言。换句话说，会计学根本就约束不了人性欲望和权力力量，资产负债表必然沦为谎言。信用背书的结局必定是信用破产。当1971年尼克松总统单方面宣布中止美元和黄金的兑换时，美元就踏上了信用破产的道路，一骑绝尘。
In other words, accounting simply does not restrain human desires and power, and the balance sheet must be a lie. Credit endorsement must end in credit failure. When President Nixon unilaterally suspended the exchange of dollars and gold in 1971, the dollar was on the path to credit bankruptcy.
BTC锚定能量的方式，不是把能量保存起来，却是把能量消耗掉。这样，能量还给宇宙，负熵注入BTC。这里没有资产负债表，也没有信用背书，也就压根儿不存在信用破产问题。（参阅教链2020.11.28文章《比特币永不破产》）
BTC anchors energy not by saving it, but by draining it. So, energy is returned to the universe, and negative entropy is injected into BTC. There is no balance sheet, no credit endorsement, and there is no credit bankruptcy.
所以，本质上讲，当我们谈论BTC的上涨时，其实我们谈论的是法币和其他资产（比如黄金）的跌落。
So, essentially, when we talk about the rise of the BTC, we talk about the fall of French and other assets, such as gold.
从BTC本位的角度讲，BTC从来就没有什么上涨。1 BTC永远是1 BTC。只不过，1美元所能兑换的BTC数量，越来越少，1盎司黄金所能兑换的BTC数量，也越来越少罢了。返回搜狐，查看更多
From BTC's perspective, BTC never went up much. 1 BTC is always 1 BTC. Only, the number of BTCs that can be exchanged for $1 is smaller and smaller and the number of BTCs that can be exchanged for 1 ounce of gold is smaller and smaller. returned to search for more
责任编辑：
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论