- 在共享经济中，构筑多方间的信任：Airbnb这样的P2P住宿网站已经开始通过构建私有房产的公共市场来转型整个旅馆业。但是其发展受到诸如对安全（顾客）和财产损坏（房主）的顾虑的限制。通过构建一个安全防干扰的系统来管理电子化的认证信息和声誉，我们认为区块链可以帮助加速P2P住宿业的发展，直到2020年会产生30-90亿美元的增量收入机会。
- 通过分布式市场改造美国的电力产业：今天，消费者依赖由公用事业中心化生产的能源。随着屋顶太阳能和大容量电池技术的出现，个人将可能成为分布式的能源供应者。我们相信区块链能被用来促进个人在分布式网络上进行安全的能源交易，而他们之间并无现存关系——每年25-70亿美元的机会。
- 减少承保产权保险的交易成本：房屋的所有者再购入或再融资他们的房产需要负担大量的交易费用，包括产权保险，因为产权搜索流程需要耗费大量人力。随着商业流程的改变，区块链可以减少产权保险的保费，单是美国因为减少了错误和人力耗费而产生的成本节约就可达20-40亿美元。而在新兴市场，一个土地登记系统也可以帮助减少交易和融资成本。
- 优化现金证券的清算和结算：尽管如股权这样的证券的交易成本相对低廉，但多达10%的交易都会受限于各种错误，导致人工干预和交易结算时间延长。通过应用区块链技术到现金证券的清算和结算——特别是股权、再回购协议和杠杆贷款——我们预计，通过更短、甚至是定制化的结算窗口，全球的本行业将节约110-120亿美元的费用、运营成本和资本支出。虽然我们在本文中不会深入讨论，但区块链也有可能削减大量的涉及外汇交易、大宗商品和场外衍生品交易的额外成本。
- 促进反洗钱和“知晓客户”合规性的效率：用区块链存储账户和支付信息可以标准化一个账户的数据结构，因此会增强数据质量，减少被错误划归“可疑”交易的数量。一个抗干扰的记录也可以更顺畅地知晓客户并展示与反洗钱规定的合规性——产生30-50亿美元的成本节约。
（我们会阐明一个基于区块链的、去中心化的能源市场是什么样子——而它将于现有的公用事业模型有何区别——在【第24页】。）
(We'll clarify what a decentralised energy market based on block chains would look like — and how it would differ from existing utility models — in [p. 24].
我们预计在接下来的2年中见到早期技术原型，2-5年后见到有限度的市场应用，而5-10年内会有更大范围的市场接受度。我们相信聚焦客户的共享经济和社交媒体企业会在更短的时间内开始实施基于区块链的身份与声誉管理系统。在资本市场上，我们预计在接下来2年内见到早期的原型产品，但范围有限、参与者数量也有限。更广泛的市场接受度可能需要10年时间，这是基于所需的监管和诸如美国现金证券市场这样的大规模市场上众多的参与者数量。
We expect to see early technological prototypes in the next two years, limited market applications in 2 to 5 years, and wider market acceptance in 5 to 10 years. We believe that the shared economy and social media enterprises that focus on their clients will begin to implement block-based identity and reputation management systems in a shorter time frame. In the capital markets, we expect to see early prototypes in the next two years, but with limited scope and limited number of participants. Broader market acceptance may take 10 years, based on the required regulation and the large number of participants in large markets such as the US cash securities market.
和任何新技术一样，在真实世界中应用区块链会涉及很多挑战。我们将某些最为严峻的挑战如下列出：
As with any new technology, there are many challenges involved in applying block chains in the real world. Some of our most serious challenges are listed below:
- 标准：我们预计会产生许多特殊许可制区块链来为一系列应用服务。为了获得广泛的应用，我们认为需要有技术标准来确保产业间有类似的技术应用——尤其是某些情况下多个区块链之间需要有互通性。
- 商业矛盾和商业流程差异：很多情况下，一个区块链数据库的好坏取决于构成其基础的数据和商业流程。如果出于商业流程或商业矛盾的原因，各方间不能达成共识，那么区块链的应用将极大地收到阻碍，甚至停滞不前。
- 隐私问题：商业交易应用分布式数据库会导致一个问题：机构之间是否愿意与对手共享信息。同样地，“声誉管理”的概念也会导致永久性声誉影响的顾虑。用户需要小心斟酌这些因素。
- 速度与性能：任何分布式数据库都天然地比中心化数据库慢，那么区块链是否适合高速、高容量的应用场景呢。尽管许多区块链变形产品都承诺增强性能，对商业应用而言这仍是个问题。
区块链独特的性质使得它不仅有潜力优化现有市场，也有能力重构市场和创造新市场。如下，我们总结了5个例子，特别展示了精选的正在现实世界中探索和赋能区块链的私有和上市企业。
The unique nature of the block chain gives it the potential not only to optimize existing markets, but also to reshape markets and create new ones. Here, five examples are summarized, in particular, of selected private and listed enterprises that are exploring and empowering the chain of blocks in the real world.
创造新市场
共享经济：住宿
Shared economy: accommodation
至2020年，30-90亿美元的美国市场订房费用增量
Increase in booking costs on the United States market of $3.0 to $9 billion by 2020
区块链能做什么
What does a block chain do?
简化身份和声誉管理。区块链可以安全地储存和整合用户的在线交易信息，并检查身份验证和支付认证的历史记录——使得各方建立信任更容易。这样的信息可以优化交易流程，增强历史记录质量。
Simplified identity and reputation management. Block chains securely store and integrate user information on online transactions and check historical records of authentication and payment certification - making it easier for parties to build trust. Such information optimizes the transaction process and enhances the quality of historical records.
精选赋能者：Airbnb, HomeAway, FlipKey, OneFineStay
Airbnb, HomeAway, FlipKey, OneFineStay
受到威胁者：酒店业
Threatened persons: Hotel industry
“创造性破坏”重构市场
智能电网
Smart grid
新的、价值25-70亿美元的美国分布式能源市场
New US distributed energy market valued at $2.5-7 billion
区块链能做什么
What does a block chain do?
为去中心化能源市场赋能交易能力。区块链可以连接本地的能源生产者（比如有太阳能板的邻居）与该地区的消费者，使得分布式的实时能源交易市场成为可能。一个区块链驱动的市场也能增强电网安全性、刺激智能电网科技的应用。
A block chain can connect local energy producers (such as neighbours with solar panels) to consumers in the region, making distributed real-time energy trading markets possible. A block chain-driven market can also enhance grid safety and stimulate the application of smart grid technology.
精选赋能者：TransActive Grid, Grid Singularity
Explicitly selected enabler: TransActive Grid, Grid Singularity
受到威胁者：公用事业公司
Threatened persons: utility companies
优化现有市场
房地产产权保险
Real estate property insurance
美国每年20-40亿美元的成本节约
$2-4 billion in cost savings per year in the United States
区块链能做什么
What does a block chain do?
增加效率、减少风险。用区块链记录房产信息，产权保险业者可以更轻松地获得清算一项产权所需的信息。而账本的抗干扰性可以帮助减少新兴市场的房地产欺诈问题。
Using block chains to record property information, equity insurers can have easier access to the information needed to liquidate a property right. And book resistance can help reduce real-estate fraud in emerging markets.
精选赋能者：BitFury, Factom/Epigraph
Explicit candidate: BitFury, Factom/Epigraph
受到威胁者：产权保险人
Threatened persons: equity insurers
现金证券（股权、再回购协议、杠杆贷款）
每年全球110-120亿美元的成本节约
Global cost savings of $11-12 billion per year
区块链能做什么
What does a block chain do?
缩短结算时间，节约对账成本。使用基于区块链的系统可以显著缩短交易的结算时间，甚至是从几天缩减到数小时。这也可以帮助减少全流程的资本需求、运营成本和托管费用。
The use of block-based systems can significantly reduce the settlement time of transactions, even from a few days to a few hours. This can also help reduce the capital requirements, operating costs, and hosting costs of the entire process.
精选赋能者：Digital Asset Holdings, R3CEV, Chain.com, Australian Securities Exchange, itBit, Axoni, Ripple
Energeticists: Digital Asset Holdings, R3CEV, Chain.com, Australian Technologies Exchange, itBit, Axoni, Ripple
受到威胁者：托管银行和清算所
Threatened persons: Trust banks and clearing houses
（如果其他资本市场，如外汇交易、场外衍生品交易和大宗商品交易市场应用区块链，则会有更多的成本得到节约。）
(There would be additional cost savings if other capital markets, such as foreign exchange transactions, off-site derivatives transactions and the application of block chains in bulk commodity trading markets, were applied.
反洗钱合规性
每年全球30-50亿美元的成本节约
Global cost savings of $3-5 billion per year
区块链能做什么
What does a block chain do?
增加透明度和效率。用区块链储存账户和支付信息可以增强数据质量，减少被错误划归“可疑”交易的数量。
Increased transparency and efficiency. The use of block chains to store accounts and payment information enhances data quality and reduces the number of transactions erroneously classified as “suspicious” transactions.
精选赋能者：SWIFT与其它
Explicitly selected enablers: SWIFT and others
受到威胁者：特殊合规性软件商
Threatened persons: special compliance software provider
精选私有与上市企业资料
我们在【第81页】提供更具体的、针对正在研发区块链应用的私有企业的讨论。我们也特别介绍了数个正在驱动区块链发展的上市企业，包括澳洲证交所(ASX)、IBM、埃森哲、Visa、Mastercard、纳斯达克、纽约梅隆银行、道富银行、北方信托和Overstock.com
We provide a more specific discussion on private enterprises that are developing block chains. We also highlight several listed enterprises that are driving the development of block chains, including the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), IBM, Essenzhe, Visa, Mastercard, Nasdak, New York Melon Bank, Doo Fu Bank, Northern Trust and Overstock.com.
区块链是一种本质上全新的数据库技术，极其适合应对一些特定的挑战。过去，机构们使用中央数据储存系统来支撑交易流程和计算。但出于一些技术和安全因素，机构之间极少共享数据库。区块链是一种共享的分布式数据库，记录各方交易，增强透明度、安全性和效率。
Block chains are fundamentally new database technologies that are well suited to meet specific challenges. In the past, agencies used a central data storage system to support transaction processes and calculations. But, for technical and security reasons, databases are rarely shared among agencies. Block chains are a shared distributed database that records transactions between parties and enhances transparency, security and efficiency.
区块链可以按以下顺序解析：
The block chain can be interpreted in the following order:
区块链是：
一种数据库（数据库的备份由多个地点或节点保存）
a database (back-up of the database is maintained by multiple locations or nodes)
记录交易（两方或多方）
records transactions (two or more)
划归区块（每个区块包含交易细节信息，如卖方、买方、价格、合约条款和其它信息）
(each block contains details of the transaction, such as seller, buyer, price, contract terms and other information)
全网通过组合共同交易信息和特定两方或多方的独有签名加密验证。如果所有节点都写入同样的结果，交易就是有效的。
The transaction is valid if all nodes are included in the same result.
并加到之前交易的链条上（只要区块得到验证）。如果区块是无效的，节点间的“共识”会纠正不相容节点的结果。
and added to the chain of previous transactions (if blocks are authenticated). If blocks are invalid, the “consensus” between nodes corrects the result of incompatible nodes.
（区块链是一种共享的分布式数据库，记录各方交易，增强透明度、安全性和效率。）
(The block chain is a shared distributed database that records transactions between parties and enhances transparency, security and efficiency.
图表1：图解区块链上单个区块如何建立和验证。
Chart 1: How individual blocks are created and validated on the graphical block chain.
区块链：公共还是私有？
我们预计私有的、或是“许可制”的区块链会占据商业应用领域的主流。比特币使用的分布式账本是一个公共账本，可以由任何希望交易的人进行读取和写入，这样的公共交易工具非常适合互不认识的陌生个体。事实上，比特币账本的公共特性也是分布式数据库最吸引人和最新奇的功能。但对于许多大容量商业交易（比如，对手方之间进行的证券交易或供应链上的商业伙伴之间共享信息），信任已然建立——而且很多情况下他们更需要交易的隐私性。私有或“许可制”的区块链和公共区块链的逻辑是一样的，至少任何希望访问区块链的人都必须先被验明身份是否在一份预先验证市场ID列表上。我们认为商业区块链应用的绝大多数——尤其是资本市场——都会使用私有或许可制区块链。
In fact, the public features of the Bitcoin account are also the most attractive and up-to-date features of the distributed database. But for many large-volume commercial transactions (e.g. securities transactions between counterparts or information-sharing between business partners in the supply chain), trust has been established – and in many cases they need the privacy of the transaction. Private or “licensing” blocks and public block chains have the same logic, and at least anyone who wants to access the chain must first be identified on a list of pre-verification market IDs.
智能电网
9%
这是中心化电站和终端消费者之间的电力传输损耗占比。区块链将通过一个去中心化的实时能源市场连接本地生产者和消费者，减少长程传输需求，也就削减了中心化供应模型的固有缺陷。（【第24页】）
This is the ratio of electricity transmission losses between central power stations and end consumers. Block chains will connect local producers and consumers through a decentralised real-time energy market, reducing long-range transmission demand, thereby reducing inherent deficiencies in the centralized supply model. (p. 24)
浮动市场
16%
区块链会为美国现金证券市场减少的总成本占比。我们预计全球的资本市场都存在类似的成本削减机会。（【第45页】）
The block chain will represent a reduction in the total cost of the United States cash equity market. We expect similar cost reduction opportunities in global capital markets. [p. 45]
信任但要验证
30%
这是在美国房地产交易中，房产证明被认为“有缺陷”的比例，因此需要进行劳动密集的清算流程。区块链可以简化验证程序，减少相关的保险精算风险——也就会节省消费者保费约30%。（【第32页】）
This is the proportion of real-estate transactions in the United States where real-estate certificates are considered “defective” and therefore require a labour-intensive liquidation process. Block chains can simplify the certification process and reduce the associated actuarial risk - and save about 30% of consumer premiums. [p. 32]
产权保险人的运营成本：潜在节省达30亿美元
Operating costs of equity insurers: potential savings of $3 billion
客房服务
5亿
500 million
这是我们预计到2020年P2P住宿业会为全球本行业增加的每房晚供应数。区块链可以通过提供安全的身份和声誉管理加速其增长。
This is the number of nights that we expect the P2P accommodation industry to increase globally by 2020. Block chains can accelerate growth by providing secure identity and reputation management.
假阳性
99.9%
这是进行人工复查后，“可疑”金融交易最终被认定为误报的比例。其主要成因是糟糕的数据质量——而一个抗干扰的分布式账本正好可以弥补。（【第73页】）
This is the percentage of “suspicious” financial transactions that, after a manual review, are ultimately identified as misreported. The main cause is the poor quality of the data — and a distributed account book that is resistant to interference can be made up for it. [p. 73]
净节省
500亿美元
$50 billion
部分由区块链赋能后，再回购协议市场从中心化清算和净额结算中节省的资本开支。（【第56页】）
Partly by enabling the block chain, the repurchase agreement market saves capital costs from centralised liquidation and netting. (p. 56)
区块链案例分析1：声誉管理助益共享经济
区块链案例分析2：用区块链构筑分布式智能电网
区块链应用案例分析3：减少房地产产权保险交易成本
区块链应用案例分析4：资本市场——美国现金股票市场
区块链应用案例分析5：资本市场——再回购协议
区块链应用案例分析6：资本市场——杠杆贷款交易
区块链应用案例分析7：反洗钱和“知晓客户”合规性
本文节选自高盛公司报告《区块链：从理论走向实践》。
Excerpts from the Goldman Sachs report " Block chains: from theory to practice ".
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