Mashable中文站 11月28日报道
美东时间周二,根据韩国CoinMarketCap数据,比特币价格继续攀升并一举突破1万美元关口。
On Tuesday, United States East Time, according to Korea's CoinmarketCap data, Bitcoin prices continued to climb and break the $10,000 threshold.
比特币的价格在最近几个月经历了一段超高速的上涨,其价格在不到3个月内上涨了3000美元至10000美元。据CoinMarketCap称,比特币的价格在2017年1月1日时还在1000美元左右,这意味着比特币的价格在今年上涨了10倍。
Bitcoin prices have experienced a hypervelocity rise in recent months, rising between $3,000 and $10,000 in less than three months. According to CoinMarketCap, the price of bitcoins was about $1,000 on 1 January 2017, which means that bitcoins prices have increased tenfold this year.
CoinMarketCap数据
然而,除了是一个巨大的心理关口之外,1万美元的价格对于比特币来说没有任何具体意义。比特币价格近期的上涨似乎并不是任何敏感的指标刺激造成的。
However, with the exception of a huge psychological juncture, the price of $10,000 has nothing to do with bitcoin. The recent increase in bitcoin does not seem to be the result of any sensitive indicator stimulus.
相反,去年11月取消一个有争议的“硬叉”,反而引起了公众的兴趣,机构投资者大量涌入似乎推动了比特币价格的大幅上涨。
On the contrary, the removal of a controversial “hard fork” in November last year attracted public interest, and the influx of institutional investors appears to have contributed to a significant increase in Bitcoin prices.
(所谓“硬叉”,是比特币和加密货币领域中的一种现象。在这种现象中,由于矿工或用户活动或规则的变化,迫使区块链中发生某些分歧。硬叉指的就是比特币区块的交易方式或“共识”发生改变的时候,没有进行升级的节点拒绝对已经升级过的节点生产出的区块进行验证,大家各自沿着自己的链向前走,自然而然就形成了不同的两个链。)
(The so-called “hard fork” is a phenomenon in the area of bitcoin and crypto-currency. In this phenomenon, changes in the activities or rules of miners or users force certain differences in the block chain. The hard fork point is when the mode of dealing or “consensual” of bitcoin blocks changes, the nodes that are not upgraded refuse to validate the blocks produced by the nodes that have been upgraded, and each follows its own chain, naturally forming two different chains.
但据欧美比特币报价平台Bitstamp数据,比特币价格仍然徘徊在9800美元-9900美元之间。
However, according to the Bitstamp data of the Euro-Meteco quotation platform, the price of the bitcoin still hovers between $9,800 and $9,900.
加密货币集体上涨
Encryption Currency Collective Rising
而且并非只有比特币的价格在上涨。所有加密货币的市值总和在周一突破了3000亿美元大关,所有10种最大的加密货币的价格都大幅上涨。第二大加密货币即以太币目前的市值已超过450亿美元,排在第三位的“比特币现金”(Bitcoin Cash)的市值站上了260亿美元。
And not only bitcoin prices are rising. The market value of all encrypted currencies together crossed the $300 billion mark on Monday, and the price of all 10 of the largest encrypted currencies rose sharply. The second-largest encrypted currency, the current market value in Chinese currency, has exceeded $45 billion, and the third “bitcoin cash” stands at $26 billion.
尽管市场异常繁荣,但并非所有人都能接受比特币。加密货币并没有跟上时代的步伐,网络缓慢而拥挤,导致交易费用飞涨,使得比特币无法支付。
Despite the extraordinary prosperity of the market, not everyone can accept bitcoin. Encrypted money does not keep pace with the times, and the network is slow and crowded, causing transaction costs to soar that bitcoin cannot be paid.
专家们指出,今年以来,比特币核心开发商与大型企业、交易所以及平台上的矿工之间的争吵对比特币来说并不是什么好事。所有各方都认为比特币应该升级,但他们从未就如何升级和何时升级达成共识。Segwit2x硬分叉可能是一种解决方案,但由于缺乏共识,它在发布前几天被取消了。
Experts noted that the bickering between the Bitcoin core developers and large firms, exchanges, and miners on the platform has not been a good thing since this year. All agreed that Bitcoin should be upgraded, but they never agreed on how and when to upgrade.
与此同时,比特币目前主要被视为一种价值存储,类似于数字黄金,这似乎足以推动比特币价格上涨。
At the same time, Bitcoin is currently seen primarily as a value deposit, similar to digital gold, which appears to be sufficient to boost the price of bitcoin.
新投资者担心错过机会
比特币价格在上周五(即黑色星期五)突破8000美元,周六继续大涨到9000美元,然后在周一突破1万美元。导致比特币价格的这一波强势上涨的主要因素是很多投资者尤其是新进投资者担心会错过比特币盛宴,于是蜂拥入市,从而带动比特币价格以巨量突破1万美元大关。
Bitcoin prices broke by $8,000 last Friday (black Friday), continued to rise significantly to $9,000 on Saturday, then broke by $10,000 on Monday. The main factor behind this surge in bitcoin prices was the crowding-in of many investors, especially newcomers, who feared that they would miss the Bitcoin feast, thus driving Bitcoin prices through the $10,000 mark.
不管怎么计算,比特币今年的表现都令人震惊。更重要的是,比特币价格的飞涨并不是昙花一现,而是得到了越来越多的主流采纳和大量交易量的支持。在过去的24小时里,比特币的交易价值总量超过了50亿美元。
More importantly, the surge in Bitcoin’s prices has been supported by a growing number of mainstream adoptions and large volumes of transactions. Over the past 24 hours, the value of Bitcoin’s transactions has exceeded $5 billion.
今年关于比特币的公告不断,这意味着这种加密货币正在得到广泛接受,也预示着它的价格即将大幅上涨。在主流分析师普遍开始关注和报道比特币之后,比特币对冲基金和机构投资者也出现巨大增长。
This year’s announcement of Bitcoin continues, which means that the encoded currency is being widely accepted and portends a sharp rise in its prices. After mainstream analysts have generally begun to pay attention to and report on Bitcoin, there has also been a huge increase in the number of hedge funds and institutional investors.
现在,比特币期货市场即将出现,比特币已经成为金融界的投资标的。不管他们是喜欢还是讨厌,大银行家们都无法在比特币面前保持沉默。
Now, the Bitcoin futures market is about to emerge, and bitcoin has become the subject of investment in the financial world. Whether they like it or not, large bankers cannot remain silent in front of bitcoin.
此外,投资加密货币的对冲基金也出现了爆炸式增长。早在8月份的时候,70家投资加密货币的新基金开始出现的消息登上了报纸头条。现在,120家基金投资加密货币的消息却连重要消息都算不上了。
In addition, there has been an explosive growth in hedge funds that invest in encrypted currencies. As early as August, news of 70 new funds that invest in encrypted currencies began to appear in the headlines.
比特币期货即将出现
Bitcoin futures are about to appear
比特币价格大幅上涨的另一个重要因素是,比特币期货很快将在主要监管市场上交易。全球最大的两个期货市场即芝加哥商品交易所(CME)和芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)将很快推出比特币期货。
Another important factor in the sharp rise in bitcoin prices is that bitcoin futures will soon be traded in major regulatory markets. The two largest futures markets around the world, the Chicago Commodity Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOE), will soon be rolling out bitcoin futures.
随着比特币被越来越多的机构所接受,网络被迫保持同步。随着价格的上涨,比特币的交易量也水涨船高。如图1所示,比特币每天的交易量都超过20亿美元。
As Bitcoin is accepted by a growing number of institutions, the network is forced to keep pace. As prices rise, the volume of Bitcoin transactions rises.
随着交易量的增加,比特币采矿也变得越来越有利可图。如今,矿工们每天收取的费用就超过150万美元,这还不包括区块奖励。如图2所示,随着市场的增加,采矿的回报也呈指数形式增长。
Today, miners charge more than $1.5 million a day, not including block incentives. As figure 2 shows, mining returns increase exponentially as markets increase.
接受率上升并非地区现象,而是全球性的
而且,这种接受率的增长并不是地区性的。从委内瑞拉到津巴布韦,从韩国到瑞士,增个全球社会都已经开始接受比特币。自比特币问世以来,国际交易量就一直在稳步上升。
From Venezuela to Zimbabwe, from South Korea to Switzerland, an additional global community has begun to accept bitcoin. International transactions have been rising steadily since Bitcoin came into existence.
当然,拥有更大技术访问权的地区的采用曲线是最一致的。例如下图显示的比特币的欧洲地区的采用率变化图,你可以看到,采用率一直在稳步增长,短期内猛增的现象并不常见。
Of course, the adoption curve is the most consistent in areas with greater access to technology. For example, the figure below shows a pattern of changes in the adoption rate in the region of Europe in bitcoin, as you can see, the rate of adoption has been increasing steadily, and a sharp increase is not common in the short term.
然而,几乎没有大众化技术的其他国家也在迎头赶上来。委内瑞拉就是一个很好的例子,随着博利瓦(委内瑞拉货币)的贬值,比特币的采用率呈指数形式增长。
However, other countries with few popular technologies are catching up. Venezuela is a good example, with the devaluation of Bolivar (Venezuelan currency), the rate of adoption of Bitcoin has increased exponentially.
全球采用率增长的部分原因是比特币ATM机的突然增加。现在平均每天都要增加4.8台比特币ATM机,而且这个数字只会继续增加,因为新的ATM公司仍在不断涌现。
The increase in global adoption rates is partly due to the sudden increase in the number of Bitcoin ATM machines. An average of 4.8 bitcoins per day are now added, and this number will only continue to rise, as new ATM companies continue to emerge.
这可能只是一个开始
在这些因素的共同作用下,比特币的价格突破1万美元也就不足为奇了。当然,随着采用率的继续上升,比特币的价格无疑会继续攀升。
Given the combination of these factors, it is not surprising that the price of Bitcoin has exceeded $10,000. Of course, the price of Bitcoin will certainly continue to rise as the rate of adoption continues to rise.
比特币最终会出现牛市还是熊市仍有待观察,但是从交易量来看,这里不仅没有泡沫,而且绝大多数公众开始认识数字货币。比特币价格突破1万美元看似一个里程碑,但这可能还只是一个开始。(编译/林靖东)
It is still to be seen whether Bitcoin will end up in cattle or bear, but not only is there no bubble in the trade, but most of the public is beginning to know the digital currency. Bitcoin has passed $10,000 as a milestone, but it may be just the beginning.
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