比特币价格跳水惊魂

北京商报讯（记者 刘四红）继前一阵的强势上涨后，不到7日，比特币再迎来跳水惊魂。

The Beijing Business News (journalist Liu Xianghong) followed the previous surge and, less than seven days, Bitcoin came back to jump.

自北京时间12月11日凌晨5时开始，比特币价格开始上演大暴跌，至当日15时26分，价格接连跌破44000美元、43000美元和42000美元三道整数关口；短暂回调之后，12月12日凌晨4时，比特币价格再次跳水，接连跌破42000美元、41000美元，最低至40302美元，跌幅达8%。截至12月12日12时41分，据比特币行情网站非小号数据，比特币最新价格报41635美元，24小时跌幅1.09%。

Beginning at 5 a.m. on 11 December Beijing time, the price of Bitcoin began to fall sharply. At 1526 a.m. on that day, prices fell successively by $44,000, $43,000 and $42,000; after a brief return, at 4 a.m. on 12 December, the price of Bitcoin fell again, falling by $42,000, $41,000, down to $40302, down by 8 per cent. As at 1241 a.m., the latest price of Bitcoin was $41635, down by 1.09 per cent in 24 hours.

随着比特币价格大跌，众多投机者损失惨重，截至12月11日下午，全网爆仓人数近12万人，截至12月12日12时42分，爆仓事件仍在持续，最近24小时共有超5万人被爆仓，爆仓总金额达1.41亿美元。

With the sharp fall in Bitcoin prices, a large number of speculators have lost their lives. As at the afternoon of 11 December, the number of Internet-wide blasts had reached nearly 120,000. As at 1242 hours on 12 December, the blast had continued, with over 50,000 in the last 24 hours and a total of $141 million.

回望2023年以来全年走势，比特币回升态势明显，过去近一年中仅有5月、7月、8月处于下滑中，相较于2022年末在16000美元附近横盘震荡的交易价格，年内比特币涨幅接近150%。就在一周前的12月4日，比特币还曾延续上涨走势，盘中突破40000美元整数关口后接连涨破41000、42000美元。在业内看来，该轮上涨因素中，除了美联储结束加息周期的传导效应外，比特币现货交易基金（ETF）方面的动向受到关注。

Looking back at the year’s trend since 2023, it is clear that bitcoin has been on the rise for almost the past year, falling in May, July, and August, close to 150% in comparison to the price of a tremor of $16,000 at the end of 2022. Just a week ago, on 4 December, Bitcoin continued its upward trend, rising by $41,000 to $42,000 after breaking the $40,000 intell. In the industry’s view, in addition to the driving effect of the Fed’s end of the interest-added cycle, the movement of Bitcoin’s spot trading fund (ETF) was noticed.

而此次再遇暴跌，在业内看来，新一轮跌势或是对此前上涨行情的阶段性回调。正如一资深分析人士说道，“前段时间市场情绪整体向上，几乎达到了新的高点，如今的回调也是意料之中”。

And this time, in the industry, it seems that a new downward trend may be a step back from the previous upturn. As a senior analyst said, “The market moods of the previous period have been up, almost at a new high, and now they are expected to return.”

“其实比特币从理论上看，是和美元周期相反，和黄金价格周期同步，而当前美元正在从强势转向弱势，理论上利好比特币，但也要看到，比特币本身是一种信仰代币，又因为投机者较多而处在控盘状态，所以，比特币的上涨和下跌是有主导资金在进行操控的，也就是说比特币并非充分竞争的市场，价格也并不一定遵循市场规律。”浙江大学国际联合商学院数字经济与金融创新研究中心联席主任、研究员盘和林进一步分析。

“It is true that Bitcoin is in theory the opposite of the dollar cycle and synchronized with the gold price cycle, and that the dollar is now shifting from strong to weak and theoretically profitable to bitcoin, but it is also to be seen that Bitcoin is itself a proxy of faith and is in a state of control because of the number of speculators, so that Bitcoin's rise and fall are dominated by capital, that is, Bitcoin is not a fully competitive market and prices do not necessarily follow market patterns.” The Co-Director, Researcher and Forestry of the Centre for Research on Digital Economy and Financial Innovation of the United Business College of Zhejiang University further analysed it.

北京商报记者注意到，跟比特币保持统一趋势，其他币种也在近期出现暴跌行情，一众加密代币币种遭遇血洗，北京时间12月12日凌晨，以太坊跌幅达8%，莱特币跌逾4%，瑞波币跌逾6%。截至12月12日13时，以太坊报2222.6美元，24小时跌幅0.86%；莱特币最新报72.84美元，24小时跌幅1.14%。

According to a reporter from the Beijing Business Journal, the trend towards unification with Bitcoin has been marked by a recent sharp fall in other currencies, with a bloodbath of a group of encrypted token currencies, which fell by 8 per cent in the early morning hours of 12 December Beijing time, by more than 4 per cent in Leyco and by more than 6 per cent in Riboco. As of 12 December, at 1300 hours, it had dropped by 0.86 per cent on a 24-hour basis, and at $72.84 in Leitco’s latest report, by 1.14 per cent on a 24-hour basis.

“受宏观紧缩环境以及大型机构爆雷等因素影响，加密市场自2022年以来已历近两年的低谷期。但随着宏观政策稳定，有关比特币ETF批准的利好消息不断传出，叠加比特币减半周期临近，市场对加密资产的兴趣和看涨情绪正普遍上涨。但震荡行情下，币圈投资风险极大，普通消费者应避免参与。” 谈及近期市场表现，前述一资深分析人士进一步补充道。

But, with macro-policy stability, good news on the benefits of the Bitcoin ETF’s approvals continues to spread, with the cycle of halving the stacking of bitcoins approaching, and the market’s interest in and interest in encryption assets is generally rising. But, in the case of tremors, currency circles are highly risky, and ordinary consumers should avoid involvement.”

在业内看来，暴涨暴跌下持有合约的投机者爆仓的可能性比其他时间更容易发生。虚拟代币交易中涉及法律风险的地方也需要注意，虚拟货币交易行为不被法律所保护，参与风险极大。

In industry, it is more likely than ever that speculators with contracts will crash. Where legal risks are involved in virtual currency transactions, attention needs to be paid to the fact that virtual currency transactions are not protected by the law, and participation is highly risky.

盘和林称，加密代币的市场底盘是交易者，也就是投机，比特币的走势并没有那么好预判，所以，存在随机且无法预测，而对于交易者，大多数人注定是在比特币这个游戏中博弈，别人亏的，就是你赚的，此消彼长。所以，普通投资人需要对自己的风险承受力有个评估判断，认清之后再决定是否参与投资。

According to Chai-Lin, the market chassis of encrypted tokens is a trader, that is, speculation, and the movement of bitcoins is not so predictable, so there is a random and unpredictable pattern, and most traders are destined to play in the game of bitcoin, and others lose, and you earn. So, ordinary investors need to have an assessment of their risk tolerance and then decide whether to invest.