最近,投入一部分精力到AI+DePIN賽道,有種感覺,這會是推動這一輪牛市的價值敘事主升浪,老DeFi協議,NFT、新銳公鏈,以及不少底層技術創新都在往DePIN方向靠攏,接下來,分享幾個我的思考邏輯:
Recently, a part of the effort has been devoted to the AI+DePIN track, and there is a feeling that this will be a boost to the value story of this round of cattle, the old DeFi deal, the NFT, the new sharp public chain, and a number of bottom-level technological innovations, all in the direction of DePIN, to share some of the logic of my thinking:
1) 如何理解DePIN的概念,簡單來說,傳統的CePin伺服器、感測器、通訊網路等實體設施網路要運作需要依賴AWS、阿里雲等中心化算力叢集服務,對許多中小企業而言投入成本太高。
1) How to understand the concept of DePIN and, in short, how traditional CePin servers, sensors, communication networks, etc., need to rely on centralized computing services such as AWS, Ali Clouds, etc., to operate the network, which is too costly for many small and medium-sized businesses.
DePIN就是利用區塊鏈Token激勵手段,讓一些擁有「硬體設備」的用戶,可以建立實體設備大規模協作關係,構成有服務能力的基礎設施網絡,讓一些中小企業可以無需可訪問並以經濟實惠的方式利用網路資源。
DePIN uses the sector chain Token to motivate users who have "hardware" systems to create a large-scale physical infrastructure network that allows small and medium-sized businesses to access Internet resources without need and in a cost-effective manner.
2)有人說,這不就是FileCoin、奇亞、Arweave等上一輪牛市「硬體設備挖礦」敘事嗎?沒錯,但不全是,這一輪牛市新增加了「AI」變數。
2) It is said that this is the last round of "hardware mining" in FileCoin, Chia, Arweave, etc.? Yes, but not all, this new round of cattle adds an "AI" variable.
去中心化儲存有需求,但並非強剛需的需求,會參雜一些偽需求,比如:數據存儲訪問,雖然可以解決存儲需求,但因網絡分佈是構造和節點效率運行的不穩定,導致一些在線視訊、遊戲等即時性強需求應用場景落不了地。
To centralize the demand, but it is not a compelling demand, there are a number of false demands, such as data storage interviews, which, while addressing storage needs, cause some of the immediate demand surges in video, video games and so forth to be lost because of the unstable structure and node efficiency of the network.
AI場景帶入後,AI大模型訓練會是一個很剛性的需求,我諮詢了一些做AI模型訓練的中小型AI公司,對AWS這種伺服器硬體成本配置成本,對中小型AI公司不友善。
When the AI scene was brought in, the AI model training was a very rigid demand, and I consulted a number of small and medium-sized AI companies that were training on the AI model, and were not friendly to small and medium-sized AI companies for the hardware costs of servers like AWS.
若DePIN能讓GPU等供應鏈雲端服務或調動全網的硬體設備,來構成基礎設施網絡,大模型訓練,分散式機器學習,資料儲存驗證挖礦、分散式推理等等方向都會產生強需求。這一輪DePIN,若能隨風起,主要還得靠AI賽道的驅動,這個過程一開始也會存在一些靠一紙PPT敘事的項目,但長線來看能落地的項目都不會太差。
If DePIN is able to enable the GPU and other supply chain cloud services or to adapt Web-wide hardware to form a basic network, model training, decentralized machine learning, data storage to verify mining, decentralized reasoning, etc., there is a strong demand. This round of DePIN, which is driven mainly by the AI track, will also have a PPT-based project at the outset of the process, but the long line does not look so bad.
3)大概率,AI+DePIN會承接上一輪DeFi Summer的角色,成為這一輪牛市的價值敘事主升浪。這就解釋了為啥BTC漲完會是MeMe漲,而大家期待的老DeFi卻沒啥動靜,無論說炒新不炒舊也罷,還是上一輪DeFi落地預期差造成的車包袱過重,關鍵還是缺少一個能帶動場內和場外資金混合連結的敘事機會。
3) It is likely that AI+DePIN will take over the role of DeFi Summer in the last round, and become the owner of this round. This explains why the BTC rises to Meme, while the old DeFi that we all expect is not moving, whether it's new or not, or whether the last round of DeFi's defaults have resulted in a heavy load of car bags, or the lack of an opportunity to talk about a combination of in- and out-of-the-field funds.
毫無疑問,上一輪牛市NFT透過藝術家數位市場的重塑,帶入了傳統用戶和資金,這一輪牛市AI+DePIN或許會扮演類似的角色。
There is no doubt that the NFT of the last round of cattle, which may have a similar role to play, brought traditional users and money through the reshaping of the artist's digital market.
這不代表老DeFi沒機會了嗎?非也,在我看來,這正是對傳統老DeFi一次重塑洗牌的機會:
Doesn't that mean old DeFi doesn't have a chance? Well, it seems to me that this is a chance for the old DeFi to remake the shuffle:
1.公鏈方面:上一輪DeFi過於受困於EVM環境,EVM- Compatible的敘事,讓鏈間的差異性越來越小,連動的可能性越來越大,但都在搞鏈Infra了,應用生態何時才能落地。
1. On the public chain: the previous round of DeFi was overstretched in the EVM environment, and the EVM-Compatile narrative made the difference between the chains less and more and more likely to be connected, but it was running a chain of Infra, and when should the habitat reach the ground.
因此,這一輪AI+DePIN率先要做的就是去EVM化,讓一些高性能鏈出頭,進而催生一些殺手級應用出現,例如: @solana 、Sui、Aptos等。尤其是SOL上本身就活躍著一批別樹一格的開發者力量,這一波AI+DePIN能不能冒頭直接決定了SOL在這一輪牛市的主流地位。
So the first thing to do with this round of AI+DePIN is to go to the EVM, get some high-performance chains out of the way and get some killer applications, such as: @solana, Sui, Aptos, and so on. In particular, the SOL itself is active in the power of a group of developers of different trees, and whether the wave of AI+DePIN can head directly to determine SOL’s dominant position in this round of cattle.
衝擊或超越以太坊的口號喊出來,能不能實現全靠SOL上邊AI+DePin敘事的落地了。最近,接觸了下@ionet_official 這類項目,估值已經很高了,但體驗了一下,有點意外,感覺會是引爆DePIN的一股潛在力量;
In the recent past, the value of the project @ionet_official has been high, but it's a bit of a surprise that it feels like a potential force to detonate DePIN.
2.DeFi協議方面:前陣子,Vitalik談了下AI+區塊鏈,核心其實引導了一個創業方向:AI+intent DeFi交易,顯然,能讓智能合約演化成超級智能合約,把降低用戶門檻,增加使用者互動體驗,降低使用者跨鏈交易磨損這些需求囊括進來,就是intent意圖交易真正想發力的方向。
2. DeFi agreement: In the early days, Vitalik discussed the AI+ chain, which actually led to a creative direction: the AI+intent DeFi deal, which clearly allows intellectual contracts to evolve into super-intellectual contracts, reduces user exposure, increases user interaction and reduces the demand for cross-chain transactions, which is the direction in which indents really want the transaction to work.
因此,老DeFI能不能快速推進intent交易模型+錢包前端等一系列的升級很關鍵,咬住此方向就可以併入AI+DePIN的主升浪敘事中而不用掉隊;這類DeFi創新的項目已經不少了,在此提醒下,Intent-centric的敘事並沒有結束,就差一款能夠結合AI且實際落地的項目出現了。
As a result, whether the old DeFI can quickly push into a series of upgrades, such as the indent trading model + the front end of the wallet, is critical, so that it can be bitten in this direction into the main wave of AI+DePIN without falling off the team; this type of DeFi has created a number of new projects, and this reminds me that the Indent-centric conversation is not over, and one item is just as close and realistic as it is to AI.
3.其他技術底層創新:其實現在的web3創新環境已經很成熟,web2的產品力和創新力早已滲透進來了,正因此出現了「模組化」、「鏈抽象」等一系列的敘事,而這些敘事目標都是要解決web3環境存留的鏈間互動效率低、協作成本高等問題。方向很不錯,但受困於老鏈的發展緩慢,這些微創新並沒有真正爆發潛力。
Other technological bottoms are new: the new environment of the Web3 is now mature, and the production and creativity of the Web2 are already embedded, as a result of which there is a series of "modelling" and "link abstract" conversations, all aimed at addressing the inefficient and costly interlinkage of the web3 environment. The direction is good, but the development of the older chains is slow, and these micronovaes have no real potential for explosion.
以ZK技術為例,大家都說ZK是終局,但現在ZK只是解決了主鍊和側鏈互動信任的問題,實際上ZK可以讓一切EVM及非EVM鏈實現互信資產轉移,ZK真正的價值發現還在未來。最近,有留意一個@ProjectZKM 的項目,ZK技術底層實現了多鏈互通,再加上其硬體加速這類DePIN設計,也很有可能在新一波DePIN敘事中找到關鍵卡位。
In the case of ZK technology, everyone says that ZK is the final round, but now ZK only solves the problem of trust between the chain and the chain. In fact, ZK allows all EVM and non-EVM links to be transferred, and ZK’s real value is still in the future. Recently, attention has been paid to a project @ProjectZKM, which has multiple links at the bottom of ZK technology, and the hard-to-hard DePIN design is likely to find a key in the new wave of DePIN.
以上。
Over.
Note:簡單闡述了幾個我認為AI+DePIN大有可為的思考邏輯,不一定全對,但我更多是本著價值投研和行業成熟演變趨勢的思維來推論,還沒有去添加二級市場炒作FOMO的情緒成分,以上內容,僅供參考,也歡迎拍磚,共同學習。
Note: A few of the logics that I think AI+Depin has much to think about, may not be all right, but I think more about the evolution of value investment and professional maturity, and I have not yet added the emotional component of the second-tier market FOMO, which is only for reference purposes, and welcome bricks and learning together.
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