近日，比特币价格突破60000美元，2月29日更是一度突破6.4万美元，近一个月涨幅超过40%。此轮比特币上涨动因在哪？未来走势如何？面临哪些投资风险？记者采访了业内专家。
多因素带动上涨
2021年11月，比特币攀上近6.9万美元的历史高峰后，受美联储开启激进加息周期、部分行业交易平台倒闭及监管趋严等影响，价格一路下滑，一度跌至1.6万美元的低谷。
Following the historic peak of almost $69,000 in Bitcoin in November 2021, prices fell all the way down to a low of $16,000, influenced by the Fed's start of a radical interest-added cycle, the collapse of some of the trade platforms in the industry and the tightening of regulations.
谈及近期比特币价格回升，数字资产交易平台OKX研究院高级研究员赵伟表示，在逐步消化美联储激进加息政策以及行业“黑天鹅”等事件后，比特币价格在2022年11月触底，市场情绪逐步企稳，比特币行情进入震荡修复通道。在此过程中，美联储降息预期升温、比特币现货ETF上市、增量资金入场等诸多利好叠加共振，使加密货币行业估值提升，助力比特币价格强势上涨。
Referring to the recent recovery in bitcoin prices, Zhao Wei, a senior researcher at the OX Institute of Digital Assets Trading Platform, said that, following the gradual digestion of the Fed's aggressive interest-raising policy and the industry's “black swan” events, the price of bitcoin had hit its bottom in November 2022, the market mood had stabilized, and bitcoin was entering a shock repair route. In the process, the Fed expected the increase in interest rates, the market for bitcoin current ETFs, and the surge in capital had a symbiosis that had led to an increase in the value of the crypto-currency industry, which was stronger than the price of bitcoins.
其中，比特币现货ETF的成功上市，降低了海外投资者参与门槛，提高了市场交易活跃度，成为推动本轮比特币走强的重要原因。今年1月11日，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）正式批准了包括贝莱德等机构在内的11只比特币现货ETF的申请。“这为机构投资者进入加密货币市场提供了合规途径，也为广大零售投资者带来了便利，进一步扩大了比特币的受众基础。”中国通信工业协会区块链专委会共同主席、香港区块链协会荣誉主席于佳宁表示，截至2月17日，美国比特币现货ETF第30个交易日净流入3.317亿美元，自1月11日以来的总净流入量为49.269亿美元。增量资金的进入，为比特币提供了强有力的支撑。
On 11 January this year, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially approved 11 Bitcoin spot ETF applications, including by Belet. “This provided institutional investors with access to the encrypted money market and facilitated the entry of a large number of retail investors, further broadening the audience base of Bitcoin.” The Co-Chair of the District Chain Committee of the China Communications Industry Association and Honorary President of the Hong Kong District Chain Association, Ganing, said that, as of 17 February, the US dollar’s 30th spot ETF had net inflows of $331.7 million, with a total net inflows of $4,926,900 since 11 January.
“今年春节期间，全球宏观经济发展回暖、市场对比特币即将到来的‘减半’行情保持乐观预期等，推动市场价格上涨。此外，加密货币市场的波动性在很大程度上受到金融衍生品和杠杆交易的影响，在市场参与者普遍使用高倍杠杆进行投资的环境中，短期快速拉升也有可能触发大量强制平仓，导致空头踩踏买盘急剧增加，从而加速了市场的上涨动能。”于佳宁表示。
“Global macroeconomic developments during this spring’s season, and the upcoming “50-per-cent” of the market’s “matched” market forecast, boosted market prices. Moreover, the volatility of crypto-currency markets was largely influenced by financial derivatives and leverage transactions, and short-term surges could trigger a large number of forced silos in an environment in which market participants generally use high leverage to invest.
严监管并未松动
随着比特币现货ETF上市交易，关于比特币“合法地位”的探讨逐步升温，有人认为这意味着海外主要市场对加密货币的态度开始软化，加密货币已经开始赢得与传统金融监管拉锯战的胜利。 With Bitcoin's spot ETF transactions on the market, the discussion of Bitcoin's “legal status” has been gradually warming, and it has been suggested that this has meant that the attitude of major overseas markets towards encrypted currencies has become softened and that encrypted currencies have begun to win the battle against traditional financial regulation. 事实并非如此简单。在比特币ETF批准上市交易后不久，美国证监会主席加里·根斯勒就表态称，尽管美国证监会已批准一些比特币现货ETF的上市和交易，但并未批准或认可比特币。比特币是一种投机性、波动性较大的资产。比特币现货ETF的获批将带来更多监管。投资者应该对比特币以及价值与加密货币挂钩的产品的风险保持谨慎。 Shortly after the Bitcoin ETF approved the listing, the Chairman of the US SEC, Gary Guensler, stated that, although the CSRC had approved a number of spot ETF listings and transactions, it did not approve or approve Bitcoins. Bitcoins was a more speculative and volatile asset. The approval of Bitcoins ETFs would bring more regulation. Investors should be cautious about the risk of comparison of the currency and products whose value is tied to encrypted currency. “比特币ETF获批并不意味着加密货币将会在短时间内取得突破性进展。”北京大成律师事务所合伙人、中国银行法学研究会理事肖飒认为，首先，ETF只是一种金融工具，并不会改变加密货币本身的性质。目前，世界各国普遍将比特币等加密货币视为一种特殊的金融产品或是特殊的虚拟资产，也陆续出台了针对比特币的监管制度，比特币ETF获批并不影响各国对直接持有、使用和交易加密货币的既有规范。其次，从规制加密货币投资风险来看，ETF与加密货币之间的影响和关系是单向传导的，ETF并不能反向影响加密货币，也就不能对加密货币的风险进行有效的规制。此外，比特币自身存在其他加密货币不能替代的特殊性，其他加密货币想要发行ETF相较而言更为困难。 “The approval of the Bitcoin ETF does not mean that the encoded currency will make breakthrough progress in a short period of time.” The partner in Beijing’s Dae-jung law firm and member of the China Council for Legal Studies of Banks, Xiao Xiao, argues that, first of all, the ETF is only a financial instrument and will not change the nature of the encrypted currency itself. Currently, countries around the world view encrypted currency, such as Bitcoin, as a special financial product or as a special virtual asset, and have introduced successive regulatory regimes for Bitcoin, and that the approval of the Bitcoin ETF does not affect the established norms of countries with respect to the direct holding, use, and trading of encrypted currency. 还有人关心，比特币ETF公开上市交易，我国大陆地区居民是否可以购买？事实上，我国对比特币等加密货币一直实行严监管。早在2021年9月，中国人民银行、中央网信办、最高人民法院等部门发布的《关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币交易炒作风险的通知》规定，“虚拟货币相关业务活动属于非法金融活动”“境外虚拟货币交易所通过互联网向我国境内居民提供服务同样属于非法金融活动”等。 There are also concerns about whether Bitcoin ETF is publicly traded and can be purchased by residents of our mainland region? Indeed, our country’s encrypted currency, such as bitcoin, has been subject to strict supervision. As early as September 2021, the Circular on Further Prevention and Handling of the Risks of Virtual Currency Transactions, issued by the People’s Bank of China, the Central Networking Office, the Supreme People’s Court, etc., provided that “the virtual currency-related operations are illegal financial activities” and that “the offshore virtual currency exchange provides services to residents of our country via the Internet is also illegal financial activities.” “这意味着，海外比特币ETF经销商不能向我国公民售卖相关金融产品，我国大陆地区居民也不得在大陆地区直接使用相关工具直接购买相关金融产品。”肖飒表示，总的来看，加密货币未进入主流市场这一事实并没有改变，建议投资者保持清醒头脑。 “This means that abroad the ETF distributors cannot sell the relevant financial products to our citizens and that residents of our mainland region are not allowed to use the relevant instruments directly to purchase the relevant financial products in the mainland region.” Shawn states that, on the whole, the fact that encrypted currency has not entered the mainstream market has not changed and suggests that investors remain sober. 风险不容忽视 Risks cannot be ignored 比特币价格走强，越来越多投资者开始关注，接下来比特币行情如何？是否会开启另一轮“牛市”？ The price of bitcoin is strong, more and more investors are looking at it. How's bitcoin coming? Will it open another round of the bull market? 对此，东吴证券研究团队认为，2024年比特币将迎来三重利好：“减半”、比特币生态崛起、美联储降息预期。其中，“减半”是比特币特有的发行机制，大约每4年比特币挖矿奖励将“减半”，这意味着比特币挖矿难度将增加、供应量将减少。最新一次“减半”将于今年上半年发生，从历史经验看，供应与需求的变化往往有助于比特币价格上涨。 In response, the East U Securities Research Group believes that the three-fold gain in 2024 will be “half” for Bitcoin, the Bitcoin ecological rise, and the Fed’s expectations of interest reduction. Among these, “half” is a unique distribution mechanism for bitcoin, with a “half” of the Bitcoin incentive to dig about every four years, which means that bitcoin will be more difficult to dig and fewer supplies will be available. 也有人持不同意见。“比特币‘减半’确实曾多次成为触发新一轮‘牛市’的催化剂，但仅依赖历史模式来预测未来市场走势存在一定局限性。”于佳宁认为，比特币每次“减半”的背景都不尽相同，且加密货币行业已比以前更为成熟和复杂，其他因素如宏观经济状况、政策调整和技术进步等，也可能对比特币价格造成更大影响。 There is also disagreement. “Bitcoin’s “half by half” did serve as a catalyst for triggering a new round of ‘Cow City’ on many occasions, but there are limitations to relying only on historical models to predict future market trends.” In Janin’s view, the background for every “half” of Bitcoin is different, and the crypto-currency sector is more mature and complex than before, and other factors, such as macroeconomic conditions, policy adjustments, and technological advances, may have had a greater impact on the price of Bitcoin. 自比特币问世以来，价格一路起伏不定，暴涨暴跌几乎是常态，市场面临的多重风险不容忽视。“风险是金融活动的内在属性，加密行业也不例外。当前加密货币市场仍面临宏观经济不确定性加大、行业‘黑天鹅’犹存以及监管政策尚未明朗等潜在利空因素。”赵伟表示。 “Risk is the intrinsic attribute of financial activity, and the encryption industry is no exception. The current market for encrypted money is still faced with such potential benefits as increased macroeconomic uncertainty, the persistence of the industry ‘black swan’ and the lack of clarity about regulatory policies.” “作为一种新兴数字资产，比特币价格波动受多种因素影响，包括市场情绪、宏观经济环境、技术创新、监管政策等。”于佳宁分析，各国对于加密货币的监管态度和政策正处于不断演变之中，任何新的监管措施都可能对比特币价格产生显著影响。同时，全球宏观经济环境的变化，如利率变化、通货膨胀率和国际贸易关系等，也可能影响比特币和其他加密货币的价值。此外，当前加密货币交易平台和钱包仍面临着黑客攻击和安全漏洞等风险。 “As an emerging digital asset, the price volatility of Bitcoin is influenced by a variety of factors, including market sentiment, the macroeconomic environment, technological innovation, regulatory policies, etc..” In Gyanning's analysis, countries' regulatory attitudes and policies towards encrypted currencies are evolving, and any new regulatory measures may have a significant impact on Bitcoin prices. 长远来看，包括加密货币在内的数字资产行业最终的出路还是要服务于实体经济，帮助传统产业转型升级、提质增效。“过去几年，不少主流数字资产取得较大成功，就是因为其在数字技术和产业应用等方面的创新，切实改变了实体行业痛点。”于佳宁表示，因此，数字资产行业未来发展趋势应是以数字科技创新为动力、以商业模式创新为表现、以应用场景扩展为本质。 In the long run, the ultimate exit for the digital asset sector, including crypto-currency, will be to serve the real economy and help to upgrade and increase the efficiency of the transformation of traditional industries. “A number of mainstream digital assets have been more successful over the past few years, thanks to innovations in digital technology and industrial applications that have effectively transformed the real industry’s pain spot.” In Janin, the future trend in the digital asset sector should therefore be driven by digital science and technology innovation, manifested in business models, and expanded application landscapes.
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