现在究竟是不是牛市，怎么感觉和熊市一样

比特币网络手续费回落至12聪/字节，以太坊链上gas回落至2gwei，均处于历史冰点，显示现在的生态活动非常冷清，链上活动陷入熊市状态，市场波动较小。

Bitcoin network fees fell to 12 hearing/bytes and gas to 2gwei on the Taiwan chain, all of which are at historical ice points, indicating that ecological activity is now very cold, chain activity is in the bear market state and market volatility is low.

现在的市场，说是熊市吧，比特币价格还在高位，并且减半的疯狂阶段大家还在想象；说是牛市吧，各项生态数据又处于冰点，山寨币们甚至都跌回熊市底部区间了，确实很纠结。

Now, the market is a bear market, bitcoin prices are still high, and half of the crazy phase is still being imagined; cattle is a cow market, ecological data is at an ice point, and the mountain coins are falling back to the bottom of the bear market.

最近的数据显示，市场表现依然平淡，BTC的链上移动也如以往一般，处于熊市状态。目前，投资者对现有价格的交易兴趣逐渐减弱，除了定投的个人和机构外，BTC价格已在当前水平震荡超过三个月。买入意向的投资者大多已经完成了交易，而卖出意向的投资者，包括那些恐慌或质疑的人，也已经离场。

Recent data show that market performance remains flat, and the BTC’s chain is moving as usual in the bear market. Currently, investors’ interest in transactions with existing prices is declining, with BTC prices shaking for more than three months at the current level, with the exception of individuals and institutions that have made offers.

当前市场上的投资者资金即便面对大跌也不会轻易撤出，除非有黑天鹅事件导致重大利空。因此，在没有明确的利好或利空消息出现前，价格可能会围绕当前支撑位进行宽幅震荡。毕竟，市场流动性较低，价格未出现突破，投资者情绪依然低迷。整体趋势仍主要受美联储主导，美国的宏观货币政策对市场的影响更为显著。

Investors’ financial resources in the current market will not be easily withdrawn, even in the face of a sharp fall, unless the black swan event leads to a major loss of profit. So, before there is any clear news of profit or profit, prices may be wide-banded around the current support position.

从数据看，链上活动指标（如活跃地址、交易和交易量）在 2021 年年中对比特币挖矿实施限制时，比特币网络上的活跃地址数量急剧下降，从每天超过 110 万个骤降至 80 万个。目前，比特币网络也正在经历类似的收缩，尽管市场势头强劲，活跃地址却在减少。

According to the data, the number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network declined sharply, from more than 1.1 million per day to 800,000, when the index of activity on the chain (e.g. active addresses, transactions and transactions) was restricted in mid-2021. At present, the Bitcoin network is experiencing a similar contraction, and despite strong market momentum, the number of active addresses is decreasing.

尽管美国现货 ETF 的流入量惊人，价格却停滞不前。通过比较 ETF 余额与其他主要实体，如 Mt. Gox 受托人（141k BTC）、美国政府（207k BTC）、所有交易所（230 万 BTC）和矿工（706k BTC）的余额，这些实体的总余额约为 423 万，占调整后流通供应量的 27%。

Prices have stagnated despite the alarming influx of current United States ETFs. By comparing the ETF balances with the balances of other major entities, such as Mt. Gox Trustees (141k BTC), the United States Government (207k BTC), all exchanges (2.3 million BTC) and miners (706k BTC), the total balance of these entities is approximately 4.23 million, or 27 per cent of the adjusted flow supply.

芝加哥商品交易所集团 (CME) 期货市场的未平仓合约在 2024 年 3 月达到 115 亿美元的历史新高后，稳定在 80 亿美元以上，这表明越来越多的传统市场交易者采用现货套利策略。这种套利结合了多头现货头寸的购买与溢价交易的期货合约头寸的做空，形成市场中性头寸。对冲基金的比特币净空头头寸在 CME 和微型 CME 比特币市场分别达到 63.3 亿美元和 9700 万美元，这表明现货套利交易结构可能是 ETF 流入需求的重要来源。

The Chicago Commodity Exchange Group (CME) open warehouse contracts stabilized at over $8 billion after reaching a record high of $11.5 billion in March 2024, suggesting that more and more traditional market traders are using spot arbitrage. This arbitrage combines the purchase of multiple spot positions with the futures contract position of the premium trade and forms a market neutral position. The hedge fund’s net emptiness position at the CME and mini CME bitcot markets amounts to $633 billion and $97 million, respectively, suggesting that the arbitrage structure may be an important source of demand for ETF inflows.

StarEx认为，现在行业内的生态活动确实很冷清，甚至和熊市的表现相当，ETF经过一轮大的资金流入后，资金流入放缓，净流入不再强劲，所以很难推动市场再涨一轮，市场交易量的活跃更多是存量资金通过衍生品市场进行套利，而价格进一步上涨需要非套利需求带来的有机买方来推动。

StarEx argues that ecological activity in the industry is now quite lax and even comparable to the performance of the Bear City, that it is difficult to push markets up again as the ETF slows down and net inflows are no longer strong after a major round of capital inflows, and that the dynamism of market transactions is more the arbitrage of stocks through derivatives markets, and that further price increases require organic buyers driven by non-arbitrary demand.

在美联储重大货币政策落地前，市场大概率都会维持震荡行情，涨多了跌，跌多了涨，直到大事件到来。

Prior to the fall of the Federal Reserve's major monetary policy, market rates were likely to sustain shocks, rise and fall, and fall until the big event.