稳定币市场一直是公众关注的焦点。去年，各大合规稳定币的集体诞生与上所可谓是打响了推翻USDT垄断的第一枪，但如今来看成效并不大，甚至可以宣告阶段性失败。
Stabilizing the currency market has been the focus of public attention. Last year, the collective birth of the major compliance-stabilizing currencies was described as the first shot at the overthrow of the USDT monopoly, but today it has not worked much, even to declare a gradual failure.
为什么更为合规与安全的稳定币无法击败危机重重的USDT？新兴稳定币的机遇在哪里？未来稳定币市场又将形成怎样的格局？链捕手(ID：iqklbs)希望通过本文给大家带去更多思考，并欢迎大家共同探讨。
Why can’t a more compliant and secure stable currency defeat a crisis-ridden USDT? Where is the opportunity for a new stable currency? What will the future shape of a stable currency market?
作者/胡韬
Author/Hushu
未经授权，谢绝转载
Unauthorized, no reprints.
随着本轮大热行情的到来，5月以来USDT遭遇的信任危机几乎烟消云散。
With the advent of this round of enthusiasm, the crisis of trust experienced by the USDT since May has almost dissipated.
以5月14日交易量为例，USDT的交易量达到2157亿元，超出其他所有稳定币交易量30倍以上，过去半年USDT新发行数量也超过其他所有稳定币总和，这说明尽管USDT存在严重问题众所周知，但它在全球加密货币行业的统治地位仍然相当强悍，其他稳定币所产生的实质冲击与影响很小。
In the case of transactions on 14 May, USDT's volume amounted to US$ 2157.7 billion, more than 30 times the volume of all other stable currency transactions, and the number of new USDTs issued over the past six months exceeded the sum of all other stable currencies. This suggests that, despite the well-known serious problems of the USDT, its dominance in the global crypto-currency industry remains strong and the real impact and impact of other stable currencies is minimal.
同时，TUSD、GUSD、USDC等新兴稳定币试图挑战USDT统治地位的行动尽管有一定进展与成果，但从行业整体形势来看，这些行动已经基本宣告阶段性失败。
At the same time, initiatives such as TUSD, GUSD, USDC and others that seek to challenge the dominance of the USDT, despite some progress and results, have largely declared a gradual failure in terms of the overall industrial situation.
01
阶段性失败
将时间拨回去年10月15日，由于市场恐慌情绪USDT的价格一度跳水13%，彼时GUSD等新兴稳定币刚拿到纽约监管部门的执照，顺势集中登陆Coinbase、币安、火币等交易所。
The time was set back to October 15th, when new stabilizers, such as GUSD, had just obtained a licence from the New York regulatory authority to focus on the Coinbase, Co-Ann, and other exchanges, owing to a 13 per cent jump in the price of the market panic USDT.
当时链捕手撰写的《将USDT赶下铁王座》一文中写到，这意味全球主流交易所陆续向新兴稳定币打开了大门，使得新兴稳定币有机会与USDT在同一个维度上进行竞争，成为稳定币历史上的重大突破。但如今来看，这个判断还是过于乐观了。
As the chain catcher wrote in the article " Bringing down the Iron Throne ", , opened the door to emerging stable currencies, giving the new stable currency the opportunity to compete with the USDT at the same dimension as a major breakthrough in the history of stabilizing the currency.
部分主流稳定币发行与交易情况（数据统计于coinmarketcap）
Some mainstream stabilization of currency issuances and transactions (data in coinmarkcap)
大半年以来，这些新兴稳定币的确做了很多富有成效的工作。由于USDT向来备受诟病的问题就在于安全性，其中包括USDT发行方是否存在超发、美元储备金是否足额等问题，因此各大新兴稳定币几乎都在合规与安全层面大做文章，试图让用户相信自家稳定币更加安全，进而使用自家稳定币。
These new stabilizers have indeed done a lot of good work for most of the past six months. Since the issue of USDT’s vulnerability has always been security, including whether there has been overhang on the USDT issuer, and whether the dollar reserves are fully available, the major new stabilizers are almost always working at the compliance and security levels, trying to convince users that they are safer and use their own steady currency.
这些措施包括获取监管牌照、定期发布审计报告、推出资金实时核实平台等，而且各方面数据都能证明这些新兴稳定币拥有足额的美元储备、不存在超发滥发，多方面表现远优于USDT，但现实情况表明更为合规安全的新兴稳定币仍然没能赢得用户的青睐。
These measures include the acquisition of regulatory licences, the regular issuance of audit reports, the launch of a real-time fund verification platform, etc., and data on all aspects attesting to the fact that these new stable currencies have full United States dollar reserves, do not have excesses and perform far better than the USDT, but the reality suggests that new stable currencies that are more compliant and secure still do not win user preferences.
虽然这些新兴稳定币得以在同一平台与USDT竞争，但它们的交易对数量始终相当有限，只拥有部分主流币种的交易对，亦始终不具有像USDT那样的交易专区，这一方面可能是因为新兴稳定币在影响力、流动性方面没达到交易所的要求，另一方面可能是稳定币发行方对交易所的「游说」攻势力度还不够。
Although these new stable currencies have been able to compete with the USDT on the same platform, their transactions have been quite limited in number, with only some of them in the mainstream currency, and they have not always had a trading area like the USDT, which may be due to the fact that the emerging stable currency does not meet the requirements of the exchange in terms of influence, liquidity and, on the other hand, to the fact that it may not be sufficient to stabilize the “lobbing” of the issuer against the exchange.
同时，各大交易所用户作为加密货币投资者，本身对风险具有较高的容忍度，大部分用户都会更注重便捷性、流动性等实际体验，且具有较强的交易习惯惯性，只有发生极端的群体性恐慌情绪才能令他们暂时性放弃USDT，而恐慌情绪逐步消散后又会继续回到USDT的怀抱。在这种情况下，只有那些对稳定币安全具有极端高度的要求或者发行方、做市商等利益相关者才会倾向于使用新兴稳定币进行交易。
At the same time, major exchange users, as encoded money investors, are themselves more tolerant of risks, most of them tend to focus more on practical experiences such as ease, mobility, and more business habits, and only extreme group panic can cause them to give up on the USDT temporarily, and then continue to do so once the panic has dissipated. In such cases, only stakeholders, such as distributors, market traders, and so on, will be inclined to trade with new and stable currencies.
前述种种原因的直接结果就是，各大新兴稳定币的用户量、交易量与流动性都远不如USDT，并且没有显著迹象显示有哪个稳定币有机会赶超USDT。
As a direct result of the above-mentioned reasons, the number of users, transactions and liquidity of the major emerging stabilizers are far lower than the USDT, and there is no significant indication that any stable currency has an opportunity to catch up with the USDT.
因此，在加密货币交易所战场上，USDT已经赢得稳定币竞争的阶段性胜利，但这并不意味其他新兴稳定币没有任何机会了。
Thus, on the battlefield of the crypto-currency exchange, USDT has won a phased victory in the competition for a stable currency, but this does not mean that other emerging stable currencies have no chance.
02
新战场
交易所如今是稳定币最广泛的应用场景，但从更宽泛的范围来看，稳定币作为一种特殊的链上加密货币，其在公链链上具有更为广泛的应用场景，包括质押托管、去中心化交易、跨境支付、法币入金渠道等方向，但现今都处于非常早期的阶段。
Exchanges are now the most extensive applications of currency stabilization, but, on a broader scale, they are now at a very early stage as a special chain of cryptographic currency with a wider set of applications in the public chain, including pledge trusts, decentralized transactions, cross-border payments, and channels for French currency entry. 以跨境支付或预测市场为例，如果用户使用比特币、瑞波币等主流加密货币进行该类活动，但由于该类加密货币每日价格波动较大，用户的应得权益很容易造成缩水，因此用户需要一定时间内价值波动较小的货币来规避风险，稳定币则是最佳媒介。
In the case of cross-border payments or forecasting markets, where users use mainstream encrypted currencies such as bitcoin, ripoon, etc., for this type of activity, the user's entitlements can easily shrink because of the high daily price volatility of the type of encrypted currency, so that users need a currency with less volatile values over a period of time to avoid risk, and a stable currency is the best medium. 这意味着随着公链生态的深化发展，稳定币在公链领域很可能将迎来一阵发展机遇。而由于链上业务进展缓慢等客观原因，USDT虽然已经逐步从建立于比特币区块链上的OMNI层逐渐拓展以太坊、波场，但它在公链领域的市场占有率仍然很低。
This means that, as the ecology of the public chain deepens, stabilizing the currency is likely to open up opportunities for development in the public chain. For objective reasons, such as the slow pace of operations in the chain, USDT has gradually expanded from the OMNI layer, which is built on the Bitcoin block chain, to the Taiyea and the Band, but its market share in the public chain is still low. 与此同时，大量公链已经开始在稳定币方向加快布局。不过由于发行稳定币需要获取合规牌照、资金托管等复杂流程，需要发行方具有较强的金融综合能力，公链项目方选择独立发行会耗费大量精力，并不是明智的选择。因此，大部分公链都选择与USDC、PAX等既有稳定币合作，既简化发行流程，同时充分发挥稳定币在公链的作用。
At the same time, a large number of public chains have begun to accelerate their deployment in the direction of currency stabilization. But, because the issuance of stable currencies requires complex processes such as compliance plates, funds hosting, etc., they require greater financial integration on the part of the issuer. 例如，IOST近期推出稳定币iUSD，该稳定币解决方案主要基于USDC与TUSD，以助于数字资产在IOST区块链和其他网络上进行转移；本体4月底宣布Paxos将在其网络1亿美元的Pax代币，以提高用户对区块链技术的使用体验并使DAPP能够提供更多可落地的服务。此外，还有CyberMiles、OKChain等众多公链都已经公布相关稳定币计划。
For example, IOST recently introduced iUSD, a stable currency solution based mainly on USDC and TUSD to facilitate the transfer of digital assets on the IOST block chain and other networks; at the end of April, the body announced that Paxos would be using $100 million Pax in its network to enhance user experience with block chain technology and to enable DAPP to provide more landingable services. In addition, many public chains, such as CyberMilles and OKChain, have published their stabilization plans. 可以看出，各大公链都在积极争取合规稳定币进入其生态，完善其生态体系。未来，稳定币或许还会成为每条公链的必要基础设施，市场之广阔可见一斑。
shows that the major public chains are actively seeking compliance to stabilize the currency into their ecology and to improve their ecological systems. In the future, stabilizing the currency may also become the necessary infrastructure for every public chain, and the market is wide and visible. 但由于金融业务与公链本身的分散性，可能很难有某个稳定币在公链行业具有如同USDT在交易所那般龙头地位 ，但大概率会形成三五个不等的稳定币组成第一梯队，在推动公链业务的普及落地的同时，大幅变革稳定币现有格局。
However, because of the fragmentation of financial operations and the public chain itself, it may be difficult to have a stable currency in the public chain industry that is as prominent as the USDT in the exchange, but it is likely that three or five stable currencies will form the first echelon, significantly changing the current pattern of stabilizing the public chain while promoting its spread. 03
巨头入场
最近几个月，稳定币领域最为重磅的信息当属Facebook、摩根大通和三星等著名企业传出消息将进军稳定币，似乎稳定币已经同时成为一众科技巨头和金融巨头的关注焦点。
In recent months, the highest weight of information in the area of currency stabilization has come from prominent companies such as Facebook, Morgan Chase and Samsung, which seem to be at the same time the focus of attention on technology giants and financial giants. 作为连接加密货币世界和法币世界的重要枢纽，稳定币是加密货币领域潜在合规性最强的方向，也是落地性可能最大的方向之一，这些巨头看中稳定币实属情理之中。
As an important hub linking the world of crypto-currencys to the world of French-currencys, the stabilization of currencies is one of the most likely compliance directions in the area of crypto-currency and one of the most likely landings. 以Facebook为例，其发行稳定币将主要应用于在线支付、跨境转账、广告等场景，考虑到Facebook在全球拥有高达27亿用户，该举措必然会推动加密货币与区块链技术在前述人群的普及，并加速整个行业的发展。
In the case of Facebook, where the issuance of stable currency will be used mainly in online payments, cross-border transfers, advertising etc., given that Facebook has up to 2.7 billion users worldwide, the initiative will certainly promote the diffusion of encryption money and block chain technology among the aforementioned population and accelerate the development of the industry as a whole. 由于这类稳定币具有先天性的落地场景与巨头背书，可以对现有稳定币市场形成巨大颠覆，但这种颠覆还存在很大的不确定性。如果Facebook们所发行稳定币与USDT、TUSD等稳定币同样打通法币兑换，势必会被各大交易所一拥而上地争相上线，并带来一系列监管问题，而这显然是Facebook们不愿意看到的，大概率会采取特定技术手段加以限制。
Such stable currency landings and giant endorsements can cause huge disruptions to the existing stable currency market, but there is considerable uncertainty about such disruptions. If Facebook issues stable currency exchange rates in the same way as stable currencies such as USDT, TUSD, etc., it is inevitable that major exchanges will race to the line and bring about a series of regulatory problems, which Facebook apparently does not want to see, and which is likely to be limited by specific technical means. 因此，巨头们的稳定币将为稳定币市场带去更多活力与变数，但中短期来看很难对当前主流稳定币形成较大冲击，更像是一个平行市场，以各自不同的方式推动稳定币乃至加密货币行业的场景落地。
As a result, the giants’ steady currency will bring more dynamism and variables to the stable currency market, but in the short and medium term it will be difficult to make a greater impact on the current mainstream stable currency, more like a parallel market, which will contribute in different ways to the stabilization of the currency and even of the crypto-currency industry. 此外需要注意的是，大量非美元稳定币也在全球各地加速扩张，正如币安研究院最新报告《稳定币的演变》分析指出，诸如基于英镑、欧元、澳元的稳定币可以为法定货币非美元国家的投资者用户增加全球汇款渠道、对冲法定货币风险，因此在一定程度上会更受到部分当地用户的青睐。
In addition, it should be noted that a large number of non-United States dollar stabilizers are also expanding at an accelerated global scale, and, as the recent report of the Institute of Monetary Studies, Evolution of the Stability Currency Analysis, suggests, for example, that stable currencies based on the pound sterling, the euro and the Australian dollar can increase global remittance channels for investors in non-United States dollar countries and hedge currency risks, thus becoming somewhat more popular with some local users. 总的来看，稳定币们在交易所领域的战事已经初有结果，但交易所毕竟是加密货币领域的垂直方向之一，交易所之外仍有非常广阔的发展空间，而这正是新兴稳定币挑战USDT以及既有市场格局的新机遇所在。
Generally speaking, the battles of stable currencies in the area of exchanges are beginning to bear fruit, but the exchange is, after all, one of the vertical directions in the area of crypto-currency, and there is much room for development outside the exchange, which is where the emerging stability currency challenge USDT and the existing market pattern of . 后台回复「社群」，免费加入链捕手的知识星球，了解更多行业发展的细节、八卦等知识点。
Backstage responded to the ‘community’ and joined the knowledge planet of chain catchers free of charge to learn more about the details of business development, gossip, and so on. 本文首发于微信公众号：链捕手。文章内容属作者个人观点，不代表和讯网立场。投资者据此操作，风险请自担。 The article is written in the author’s personal opinion and does not represent the network’s position.
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论