比特币（BTC）的价格在过去三个月中已经从$ 3,600上涨到$ 9,700，上涨了170％。尽管经历了三个月的巨大复苏，但一系列基本因素表明，近期内可能会再次出现上升趋势。
Bitcoin prices have risen from $3,600 to $9,700 over the past three months, an increase of 170%. Despite a three-month recovery, a series of fundamental factors suggest that there may be another upward trend in the near future.
比特币可能出现高涨的三个原因是：
There are three reasons why Bitcoin is likely to rise:
1、外汇流出增加
1, foreign exchange outflows increased
2、矿工收入获得支持
2, miners receiving support
3、长期持有BTC的所谓“骗子”或投资者数量增加
当比特币从交易所的流出增加时，表明投资者正准备长期持有BTC。
When Bitcoin outflows from the exchange increased, this indicated that investors were preparing to hold BTC on a permanent basis.
通常，交换用户出于将BTC发送到个人钱包的目的而撤出比特币，这种趋势通常表明用户在可预见的未来交易比特币的意愿较低。
Typically, exchange users withdraw from Bitcoin for the purpose of sending BTC to their personal wallets, a trend that usually indicates a lower willingness on the part of users to trade bitcoin in the foreseeable future.
比特币交易所流出量的下降与矿工收入的恢复相吻合。在最新的哈希率难度调整之后，随着矿工通过挖掘产生更多的比特币，现有的矿工正变得越来越有利可图。
The decline in Bitcoin exchange outflows coincides with the recovery of miners’ income. After the latest difficult adjustment to the Hash rate, existing miners are becoming increasingly profitable as miners generate more bitcoins through excavation.
如果开采比特币的运营成本下降，那么短期内为主要采矿中心出售更多比特币的需求也可能减少。BTC的流出部分可能来自矿工。
If the operating costs of extracting bitcoin fall, the need to sell more bitcoin to major mining centres in the short term may also decrease.
可验证的链上数据显示，矿工出售的比特币数量少于过去一周。在过去的7天中，矿工开采了约6,694 BTC，数据显示他们卖出了6,384 BTC，净库存为310 BTC。
The verified data on the chain show that miners sold fewer bitcoins than they had in the past week. Over the past seven days, miners mined about 6,694 BTC, showing that they sold 6,384 BTC, with a net inventory of 310 BTC.
比特币矿工的销量低于过去一周的水平。资料来源：ByteTree
Bitcoin miners sell less than they did in the past week. Source: ByteTree
一位名叫拜占庭将军的加密货币交易商写道：
An encrypted money dealer by the name of General Byzantine wrote:
外汇流出量持续上升。矿工收入正在寻找支持。矿工越来越拥护。因此，即使图表看起来并不十分令人兴奋，我也不知道空头认为巨大的抛售压力将来自何处。
Foreign exchange outflows continue to rise. Miners are looking for support. Miners are becoming more and more supportive. So, even if the chart does not look very exciting, I don't know where the empty belief is that the pressure to sell will come from.
总体而言，矿工们一直在减少比特币交易，并减轻了现货价格的抛售压力。比特币市场上卖方的减少和长期交易者的持续增加相结合，增加了持续反弹的可能性。
Overall, miners have been reducing bitcoin transactions and reducing the selling pressure on spot prices. Combined with the decline of sellers and the continued growth of long-term traders in bitcoin markets, this increases the likelihood of a sustained rebound.
短期内比特币将出现新的上升动力阶段的预测主要基于以下假设：矿工在未来几个月内不会出售太多BTC。但是，BTC价格的急剧变化和开采BTC的困难可能很快导致趋势变化。
Forecasts of a new upward phase in the short term are based mainly on the assumption that miners will not sell too many BTCs in the coming months. However, the dramatic changes in BTC prices and the difficulties in extracting BTC may soon lead to a change in trends.
2020年第三季度强劲反弹的理想情况将要求比特币价格保持稳定在10,000美元以上，并且矿工每天出售的BTC数量继续下降。
The ideal scenario for a strong rebound in the third quarter of 2020 will require the price of Bitcoin to remain stable at over $10,000, and the number of BTCs sold daily by miners will continue to decline.
如果发生这种情况，则意味着随着投资者和矿工的信心增强，比特币的价格突破了多年阻力，从而有可能形成适当的长期牛市。
If this happens, it means that, as investor and mine confidence increases, Bitcoin prices break through years of resistance, making it possible to form an appropriate long-term cattle market.
加密货币交易所的比特币储备跌至12个月低点，表明投资者正在积累BTC。
The amount of bitcoin reserves on the encrypted currency exchange fell to a low of 12 months, indicating that investors were accumulating BTC.
根据glassnode的数据，加密货币交易所的比特币储备降至12个月低点。据报道，BTC从Coinbase 大量流出。
According to data from Glasnode, the reserve of bitcoin on the crypto-currency exchange fell to a low of 12 months, and BTC was reported to have run out in large quantities from Coinbase.
6月6日，各种媒体报道称Coinbase可能将其区块链情报部门Coinbase Analytics出售给美国国税局（IRS）和美国毒品管制局（DEA）。根据报告，交易所的BTC流出量激增。
On 6 June, various media reports reported that Coinbase might sell its block chain intelligence, Coinbase Analytics, to the United States Revenue Service (IRS) and the United States Drug Control Agency (DEA).
投资者撤出比特币作为预防措施
像其他任何受监管的交易所一样，Coinbase由于遵守美国的严格了解您的客户（KYC）政策而持有大量用户数据。据报道，BTC流出量激增，表明投资者担心交易可能导致其用户数据处于危险之中。
Coinbase, like any other regulated exchange, holds a large amount of user data because of US compliance with your customer’s (KYC) policy. The reported surge in BTC outflows suggests that investors are concerned that transactions may put their user data at risk.
但是，据报道，Coinbase 说 Coinbase Analytics不持有交易所的任何用户数据，而只是使用公开可用的用户数据进行操作。
However, Coinbase reportedly stated that Coinbase Analytics did not hold any of the exchange's user data, but only operated using publicly available user data.
大多数区块链分析公司会监控涉及欺诈或犯罪活动（例如安全漏洞和黑客攻击）的地址，以追踪非法资金的流向。
Most block chain analysis companies monitor addresses involving fraud or criminal activities (e.g. security loopholes and hacker attacks) in order to track the flow of illicit funds.
链上数据对于防止交易所非法交易的收益洗钱至关重要。像Chainalysis和Cyphertrace 这样的公司使用公共区块链数据来积极观察比特币等加密货币的可疑交易的动向。
Companies like Chainalysis and Cyphertrace use public block chain data to actively observe the movements of suspicious transactions in encrypted currencies such as bitcoin.
Coinbase提供的解释并没有阻止BTC离开交易所的钱包，据Whale Alert称，据记录有数百万美元的交易，从Coinbase钱包转移到未知钱包。
The explanation provided by Coinbase did not prevent BTC from leaving the purse of the exchange, and according to Whale Alert, millions of dollars of transactions were recorded and transferred from Coinbase wallets to unknown wallets.
外汇储备创历史新低是看涨信号
自2020年3月以来，比特币从加密货币交易所流出的数量持续增加，这表明投资者短期内出售其所持资产的可能性较小。
Since March 2020, the volume of Bitcoin outflows from encrypted currency exchanges has continued to increase, indicating that investors are less likely to sell their holdings in the short term.
Glassnode的研究人员说：
According to Glasnode researchers:
“交易所的余额刚刚达到2,310,466.600 BTC的1年低点。到2020年6月3日，观察到之前的1年低点2,313,098.855 BTC。”
“The balance of the exchange has just reached a one-year low of 2,310,466.600 BTC. By 3 June 2020, the previous one-year low of 2,313,098.855 BTC was observed.”
$ BTC交易余额。资料来源：Glassnode
$ BTC transaction balance. Source: Glasnode
一些投行分析师认为，对于BTC的中长期价格趋势而言，从加密货币交易所提取的提款是高度乐观的指标。
Some investment analysts consider withdrawals from encrypted currency exchanges to be a highly optimistic indicator of BTC's medium- and long-term price trends.
通常，当比特币进入累积阶段时，外汇储备下降。例如，在2019年初，BTC价格徘徊在4,000美元左右。随着比特币开始逐渐攀升至14,000美元，交易所的比特币余额大幅下降。
Usually, when Bitcoins enter the accumulation phase, foreign exchange reserves fall. For example, in early 2019, BTC prices hovered around $4,000. As Bitcoins began to climb to $14,000, the exchange's bitcoins balance fell significantly.
最终，由于投资者继续将资金转移到交易所以外，并且吸收了比特币矿工的每日抛售，最终购买需求有望超过抛售压力。
Ultimately, as investors continue to divert funds away from the exchange and absorb daily sales by bitcoin miners, the final purchase demand is expected to exceed the selling pressure.
如果比特币的交易余额在不久的将来没有增加，它将增加BTC进入适当积累阶段的可能性，这可能会使其建立多年牛市。
If the balance of Bitcoin's transactions does not increase in the near future, it will increase the likelihood that BTC will enter the appropriate accumulation phase, which may lead to its establishment of a cattle market for many years.
减少比特币的比特币储备，矿工出售BTC的销售以及机构采用率的增长的合流可能会激发加密货币市场的下一个上升趋势。加入挖矿大军吧，机会永远留给敢于挑战的人，给自己一个机会，不然你永远是二八原则里剩下的80%。
Reducing Bitcoin’s bitcoin reserves, selling BTC sales by miners, and the convergence of agency adoption rates may trigger the next upward trend in the crypto-currency market. Join the diggers, the opportunity will always be left to those who dare to challenge themselves, or you will always be the remaining 80% of the 28th rule.
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