吴军 ?第228封信丨美第奇之城佛罗伦萨（上），兼谈如何欣赏文艺复兴前后的绘画
Wu Jun? 228th letter from the city of Medici, Florence, on how to enjoy the painting before and after the Renaissance.
今天我们来聊一个旅游的话题，我最喜欢的意大利小城佛罗伦萨。今天的佛罗伦萨只是一个十几万人的小城，但是它在人类历史上的地位却非常重要，因为文艺复兴从那里开始，而欧洲近代文明又始于文艺复兴。因此，那里是意大利最有文化底蕴的城市。当然，这些已经成为了历史，不过对我来讲，那里今天依然是最悠闲，最浪漫的地方。
Today we come to a topic of tourism, my favorite Italian town, Florence. Today Florence is just a small city of 100,000 people, but its place in the history of humanity is very important, because the Renaissance began there, and Europe's recent civilization began with the Renaissance. So, it's Italy's most cultural city. Of course, it's history, but it's still the most leisurely and romantic place for me today.
佛罗伦萨的繁荣始于中世纪。那时欧洲名城罗马早已没有了往日的辉煌，它当时不仅破落不堪，而且充斥着贫穷和犯罪，但在中世纪人们的精神世界里，罗马依然占据着重要的地位，因为支配着人们（包括国王们）的思想的教皇在那里。
Florence’s prosperity began in the Middle Ages. The European town of Rome, which had long been without the glory of the past, was not only devastated but also full of poverty and crime, but in the spiritual world of the people of the Middle Ages, where the Pope, who dominated the minds of the people, including the kings, still held a prominent place.
当欧洲各国的王室之间或者民间发生争议时，也常常请出罗马教廷来调停，洗雪冤情。于是人们依然从欧洲各地络绎不绝地赶往罗马，而大部分人都会路经托斯卡纳地区阿尔诺河畔的一个小镇，在镇上一边休整，一面找律师办理去罗马教廷处理公事必需的手续，并找银行家兑汇罗马认可的货币。
When disputes arise between princes or between citizens in Europe, the Holy See is often called upon to mediate and settle grievances. So people continue to travel from all parts of Europe to Rome, and most of them pass through a small town on the Arnault River in the Tuscany region, rest on the side of the town, get lawyers to deal with the formalities necessary for official business in the Holy See, and send bankers to exchange the money approved by Rome.
久而久之，这个小镇就发展成中世纪意大利文明的一个标志性城市—— 佛罗伦萨，并且成为了欧洲当时的金融中心和纺织业中心。之后，它成为了可以和威尼斯、罗马相抗衡的城邦共和国。
For a long time, this town grew into a landmark city of medieval Italian civilization -- Florence -- and became the European financial centre of the time and the centre of the textile industry. After that, it became a city republic against Venice and Rome.
在13世纪末到14世纪初，佛罗伦萨出了一位了不起的人物——但丁。人们通常理解的但丁是一个文豪，他被誉为是旧时代的最后一位诗人，也是新时代的第一位诗人，他的传世之作《神曲》为今天的大众所知。这部作品沐浴着新时代的曙光，洋溢着人文主义的光芒。
From the end of the 13th to the beginning of the 14th century, Florence came out with a remarkable figure — Dante. The usual understanding is that Dante is a man of manhood, that he is known as the last poet of the old and the first poet of the new era, and that his legacy is known to the public today. This work is filled with the dawn of the new era and the glow of humanism.
但丁还是一个情圣，他在阿尔诺河畔的廊桥上遇到了他永恒的爱人贝雅特丽齐，那时小姑娘才8岁，但丁就爱上了她。若干年后，但丁再次遇到她时，她21岁，已为人妇，但丁怅然不已。又过了3年，贝雅特丽齐24岁就病逝了。但丁想了她一辈子。在《神曲》中贝雅特丽齐是引导他的使者。
Dante was also a lover who met his eternal lover, Beatriz, on the porch bridge on the Arnault River, when the young girl was eight years old and Dante fell in love with her. A few years later, when Dante met her again, she was 21 years old, and she was a woman, but she was still alive. Three years later, Beatriz died of illness at the age of 24.
我常想，世界上没有比但丁和贝雅特丽齐那样的邂逅更为浪漫的了。因此在一个雨天，在阿尔诺河畔，我伫立在古桥上良久，想着但丁和贝雅特丽齐，想着我在退休后，就去佛罗伦萨陪伴他们。
I used to think that there was no more romantic encounter than Dante and Beatriz. So on a rainy day, on the Arnault, I stood on an ancient bridge, thinking about Dante and Beatriz, and thinking about me retiring, I went to Florence to accompany them.
中世纪末的佛罗伦萨政治并不清明，直到一个家族的异军突起，一方面他们努力维系了各种力量的平衡，另一方面善待平民，发展科学和艺术，让佛罗伦萨面貌一新。这就是历史上最富传奇色彩的家族——美第奇家族，没有他们，就没有米开朗基罗、达·芬奇和拉斐尔，就没有伽利略。虽然文艺复兴还会有，欧洲还能走出中世纪，但是形态一定不是历史上这个样子的。
Florence’s politics at the end of the medieval century was not clear, until a family of dissidents broke out, trying to maintain a balance of forces on the one hand, and to be good to the civilian population, to develop science and art, and to give Florence a new face. That was the most legendary family in history – the Medicis – without them there would be Michelangelo, da Vinci, and Rafael, and there would be no Galileo.
在佛罗伦萨，除了体会浪漫的廊桥，第二个要去看的地方是科西莫·美第奇宣告文艺复兴开始的圣母百花大教堂（图2）。
In Florence, in addition to the romantic ridge, the second place to go is the Cathedral of Notre Dame, where Cosimo Medici announced the beginning of the Renaissance (figure 2).
科西莫·美第奇算是个富二代，但是绝不是纨绔子弟，他在25岁时继承了家族的财富，不仅要让美第奇家族走上政治前台，而且要通过给佛罗伦萨留下点东西而名垂青史。科西莫小时候常常到佛罗伦萨一个宏大的建筑那里去玩耍，那是一座没有完工的大教堂，有上百年历史，当时城里没有一个老人说得清这座教堂是从什么时候开始修建的，因为在这些老人的父辈甚至祖辈记事时起，它就已经在那里了。
Cosimo Medici is a rich, second generation, but not a dude who inherited the wealth of his family at the age of 25, not only by bringing the Medici family to the forefront of politics, but also by leaving something for Florence. As a child, Cosimo used to go to play in a big building in Florence, an unfinished cathedral, with hundreds of years of history, when no old man in the city could say when it was built, because it was there when the elders’ fathers and even their ancestors remembered it.
佛罗伦萨人是虔诚的天主教徒，他们要为上帝建一座空前雄伟的教堂，它长达150多米，完成时高达110多米。但是，以当时欧洲人所掌握的技术，没有人能够给这么大的，内部没有支撑的大教堂装上顶，于是每逢下雨这里就成了一个大水塘。
The Florencens are religious Catholics who want to build an unprecedentedly magnanimous church for God, 150 metres long and 110 metres long. But, with the technology that the Europeans had at the time, no one could give such a big, unsupported cathedral to the top, and every time it rains, it becomes a great water pond.
科西莫从小看到的就是这番景象，他长大后，希望能把这个大教堂的顶给装上，让这座有史以来最大的教堂成为荣耀他们家族的纪念碑，可这又谈何容易。整个工程持续了14年，中间一波三折， 我在《文明之光》中详述了它的建造过程，限于篇幅，这里就不赘述了。
This is what Cosimo saw when he was a child, and when he grew up, he wanted to put on the roof of this cathedral, making the largest church ever a monument to their family’s glory. The whole project lasted 14 years, with a three-fold drop in the middle, and I detailed its construction in The Light of Civilizations, limited to space, and that's not much to say here.
最后是科西莫和开创文艺复兴的建筑大师布鲁内莱斯基一起合作将整个教堂完成，这座教堂前后正好修建了140年。那一年是1436年，标志着文艺复兴的开始。在教堂完工时，佛罗伦萨的市民潮水般涌向市政广场，向站在广场旁边的乌菲兹宫顶楼的科西莫祝贺。直到今天，这所教堂依然是全世界第四大教堂。
And finally, Cosimo and Brunereski, the architect of the Renaissance, worked together to complete the entire church, which was built around 140 years ago. That year, 1436 marked the beginning of the Renaissance.
既然讲到了乌菲兹宫，这是佛罗伦萨第三个要去的地方（它是美第奇家族的官邸，今天是世界著名的乌菲兹博物馆，Uffizi Museum），里面收藏着大量的文艺复兴甚至更早期的艺术品以及古希腊、罗马时期的雕塑。其中以波提切利的《维纳斯的诞生》、米开朗基罗的《圣家族》以及达·芬奇的《三王礼拜》最为出名。
When it comes to the House of Ufiz, this is the third place to be in Florence (the residence of the Medici family, and today the world-renowned Uffizi Museum, Uffizi Musium), which contains a vast collection of Renaissance and even earlier works of art, as well as ancient Greek and Roman sculptures. Among them is the birth of Venus in Poticelli, the Holy House in Michelangelo, and Da Vinci’s Trinity.
在文艺复兴时期大规模供养艺术家的是科西莫的孙子，被称为“豪华者”的洛伦佐·美第奇。他所发现、培养和资助的一大批艺术巨匠中，包括波提切利、达·芬奇和米开朗基罗等人。更重要的是，他对欧洲人文主义的诞生和发展产生了重要的影响。
During the Renaissance period, large-scale support for artists was given to the grandson of Cosimo, Lorenzo Medici, known as “the luxuryr.” He discovered, cultivated and financed a large number of art giants, including Poticelli, Da Vinci, and Michelangelo, among others. More importantly, he had an important impact on the birth and development of European humanism.
很多人问我如何鉴别和判断欧洲绘画的年代。其实对18世纪以前的绘画，只要了解它们的题材和表现方式就不难判断。我把13世纪到18世纪的绘画概括成“天上—天上人间—人间天上—人间”四个阶段。
A lot of people ask me how to identify and judge Europe’s drawings. It is easy to judge the drawings of the 18th century by knowing their subject matter and how they behave.
在文艺复兴之前的几个世纪里，几乎所有的绘画题材都是宗教题材，即使在文艺复兴的初期，这种题材仍占多数。不过，文艺复兴前和文艺复兴时期的宗教题材，在绘画的表现形式上有非常大的差别。
In the centuries leading up to the Renaissance, almost all of the drawings were religious, and even in the early years of the Renaissance, they were still in the majority. However, the pre-Renewal and the Renaissance of the Renaissance are very different in their manifestations.
文艺复兴前，人性非常受压抑，神在人们的心里是至高无上的，人是神的奴隶。这种心态表现在绘画中时，你会看到所有神的表情都十分严肃，甚至略显呆滞。从艺术水平来讲，那时的绘画水平还不如三千多年前古埃及画家的水平。
Before the Renaissance, human nature was very repressed, and God was supreme in people's hearts, and man was a slave to God. When this mentality is expressed in paintings, you see that all the faces of the gods are very serious and even somewhat dull. At the level of art, the level of painting at that time was not as high as that of an ancient Egyptian painter more than 3,000 years ago.
因此，那样的画放在教堂里，无法让教徒产生神圣的感觉。当时为了区别神和人，画家的做法是在神的头上都画上一圈圣光。细致的画法是把这一圈圣光画成金色的光芒，而简单的画法则是用一个细细的金圈代表圣光（后期作品的特点），如下图。总之，这个时期的绘画，无论从题材还是到手法，都是宗教性的，我把这个时期描绘为“天上”。
So it's not a sacred feeling to put it in a church. In order to distinguish between God and man, the painter did it by drawing a circle of light on the head of God. The detailed drawing was to paint the circle of light in gold, while the simple drawing was to use a fine circle of gold to represent the light (characteristics of later works), as follows. In short, the drawings of this period, both in subject matter and in hand, were religious, and I described the period as “the sky”.
图 3 杜乔《圣母子荣登圣座》（局部） 中世纪绘画，注意圣光
Chart 3 The Holy Virgin of Ducho. Medieval drawings. Attention to the Holy Light.
到了文艺复兴初期，虽然绘画在题材上有所突破，可这种压抑的心情在绘画中依然到处可见，人是难得一笑的。这个时期最有代表性的绘画作品，就是波提切利的名画《维纳斯的诞生》，这幅画取材于古希腊传说中的美神维纳斯诞生在贝壳里的故事。
By the early days of the Renaissance, although the painting had made a breakthrough in the subject matter, the stressful mood was still widespread in the drawings, and it was rare for people to laugh. The most representative painting of this period was the painting by Botticelli, " The Birth of Venus ", which was drawn from the ancient Greek legend of the birth of Venus in the shell.
很显然，绘画题材和《圣经》已经没有了关系，波提切利在画中表现了女性曼妙的身体，使它成为历史上诸多表现维纳斯的绘画中最著名的一幅。但是，从维纳斯的表情上，我们能够看到一丝忧郁，这是早期文艺复兴绘画的普遍特点，也是那个时代人们心灵的写照。在波提切利同时期创作的另外一幅画作《春》（Allegory of Spring）中， 依然可见这种忧郁的表情。
Obviously, the painting has nothing to do with the Bible, and Botticelli displays a woman's beautiful body, making it the most famous painting in history of Venus. But, from the look of Venus, we can see a melancholy, which is a common feature of the early Renaissance painting and a reflection of the minds of the people of that time. In another painting that Boticelli produced at the same time, the Spring is still visible.
图 4 波提切利《维纳斯的诞生》
Figure 4. Botticelli, The Birth of Venus.
但是，到了米开朗基罗时代，绘画作品中这种忧郁的特点已经看不到了，因为人们的生活开始走出中世纪的黑暗，艺术家们要表现的是人文主义思想，而不是宗教。虽然很多画家还是采用圣经题材，其实只是借助《圣经》中的人物表现人间的生活，这时的神已经凡人化了。
But by the time of Michelangelo, the melancholy features of the drawings were no longer visible, because people’s lives began to come out of the darkness of the Middle Ages, and artists had to express humanistic ideas rather than religion. Although many painters used Bible subjects, it was only by using people in the Bible to express human life, and God had become human.
米开朗基罗的《圣家族》就很好地表现了这种特点。在这幅画中，不仅中世纪时加到神头顶上的那个神圣的光环不见了，而且这些神都变成了人的形象。无论是耶稣的养父约瑟，还是圣母玛利亚，都是人间慈父慈母的形象，而耶稣则是我们生活中常见到的那种可爱的“大胖小子”。不看这幅画的标题，我们会以为这是一个普通家庭的全家福。顺便说一句，拉斐尔的绘画也是这个特点。
Michelangelo's Holy House is a good example of this. In this painting, not only is the sacred halo that was added to the head of the gods in the Middle Ages gone, but these gods have become human images. Whether Jesus's adopted father, Joseph, or the Virgin Mary, is an image of a loving mother and father, and Jesus is the sweet "Big Boy" that is common in our lives. Without looking at the title of this painting, we will think that it is an ordinary family. By the way, Rafael's drawings are also a feature.
图 5 米开朗基罗《圣家族》
Figure 5 The Holy Family by Michelangelo
这个时代的画家，其实是通过宗教绘画反映出人文主义的气息，因此，这个时期我称之为“天上人间”。
The painters of this era, in fact, reflected the ethos of humanism through religious drawings, so this time I called it “the heavenly earth”.
到了文艺复兴中后期，画家开始抛开宗教和神话题材，直接反映人间美好的生活，这在包括威尼斯画派代表人物提香和丁多雷托（ Tintoretto），尤其是众多尼德兰画家的作品中大量可见。透过这些绘画，我们能感受到走出中世纪，历经文艺复兴时期和后来大航海时代，生活富裕起来的欧洲人，在享受着人间幸福生活的一面。因此，这个时期便是“人间天上”了。
In the late stages of the Renaissance, painters began to cast aside their religious and divine discourses and directly reflected the good life of the human race, as was evident in the work of the Venetian painters, Titoretto, especially the many Nedoretto painters. Through these drawings, we can feel that Europeans, who lived richly through medieval times, during the Renaissance and subsequent seafaring times, enjoy a happy life.
图 6 尼德兰画家马西斯《银行家和他的妻子》，反映人间美好的生活
Figure 6 Mathis, the Nedran painter, The Banker and His Wife, reflects a good life for the human being.
在文艺复兴后期，绘画题材愈加丰富，表现的内容和我们的生活愈加接近，绘画作品不仅表现人间美好的一面，也大胆鞭挞人性丑恶的一面。西班牙画家戈雅的许多作品就体现了这种早期的现实主义特点。因此，这一时期的绘画进入了纯粹的“人间”阶段。
In the late stages of the Renaissance, drawings were enriched, their content was closer to our lives, and their work represented not only a good face for the human being, but also an ugly face for the human being. Many of the works of the Spanish painter Goya reflected this early realism. As a result, the painting of this period entered a purely “human” phase.
图7 戈雅 的《1808年5月3日夜枪杀起义者》，反映现实生活
Figure 7 Goya's Shooting of Intifadas on the Night of May 3, 1808, reflecting real life
佛罗伦萨是一个非常值得细细品味的城市，我们一次讲不完，今天先说到这里，下周我们继续聊。
Florence is a city that deserves a great deal of fine taste, and we cannot finish this once, and we will start here today, and we will continue next week.
万维钢 ?答读者问丨相关性和因果性
Mandarin steel? Answer the reader's question about relevancy and causality.
万维钢
Man-Dive Steel
“知道去看什么”，其实就是一种“主观偏见”，也就是“人的分析和鉴别”。咱们以前在《人工智能，能婴儿乎》这期专栏里说过，人工智能不能做出任何主观选择。比如说用贝叶斯方法先做个猜测、或者搞变量分析先选择几个测量的变量 —— 这些猜测和变量的选择，全都得靠人。
“Know what to see” is actually a “subjective bias”, that is, an analysis and identification of people. As we said earlier in A.I.A., in the column of A.T.A., babyhood, we can't make any subjective choice. For example, using the Bayes approach to make a guess or make a variable analysis to select a few of the variables in the first place – the choice of these assumptions and variables depends on people.
说白了，就是人决定看问题的角度，大数据只能决定结果。就好比说赛马的关键指标是左心室大小，可是如果不是“人”提出来，机器根本想不到去测量左心室。给定一大堆指标，机器也许可以用回归分析的办法告诉你哪个指标最重要，但问题就在于这堆指标必须得先有个人去想出来，安排测量。
To be clear, big data can only determine the outcome when people decide to look at the problem. It's like the key indicator for a racehorse is the size of the left heart, but the machine would never have thought to measure the left heart had it not been for the "person". A whole bunch of indicators, the machine might have to tell you which of the most important indicators is a regression analysis, but the problem is that one has to figure it out first and arrange the measurements.
所以正如蔡晓利所说，大数据只是工具，必须得有一个人去“分析和鉴别”。人的这个能力，只能从经验中来，从“意会”中来，而不可能是一个机械化的判断。
So, as Choi Xiaoli said, big data is just a tool, and one has to be “analysed and identified”. This ability of a person can only come from experience, from an “opportunity”, not from a mechanized judgement.
万维钢
Man-Dive Steel
“定律（law）”是具有普遍性意义的，“规律（pattern）”只是个粗略的相关性。但是有相关性也不错。
The Law is universal, the Law is simple and relevant. But it's also good to have relevance.
获得相关性是获得因果知识的第一步，而且与我们的直觉相反，医学一直都是这么进步的。阿司匹林能治疗感冒，伟哥能解决勃起障碍，这些都是意外发现。辉瑞公司搞了个新药，原本是想治疗心血管疾病，发给受试者，疗程结束了，辉瑞要求受试者把剩下的药片还回来，受试者拒绝归还。受试者说，对心血管有没有好处我不知道，但是我发现一个意外的好处……这就是伟哥。甚至很多情况下，明明证明疗效显著的方法，在原理上长时间内解释不了。科学家至今仍然在研究阿司匹林的原理。
Obtaining relevance is the first step in gaining knowledge of causes and consequences, and, contrary to our intuition, medicine has always been so progressive. Aspirin can cure colds, Viagra can deal with erectile disorders, and these are all unexpected discoveries. Pfizer's new drug, originally intended to treat cardiovascular diseases, was sent to the testee, the treatment was over, Pfizer asked the testee to return the rest of the pills, and the testee refused to return them. The testee said, I don't know if there was any benefit to the cardiovascular vein, but I found an unexpected benefit.
其实很多科技进步都是如此。并不是事先理论上算好了再做实验，往往是意外发现相关性，先用起来再说。因果的事儿慢慢再说。
This is true of many technological advances. It's not theoretically done before experimenting, it's often accidental to discover the relevance, but to use it first. The cause and effect can be discussed later.
就算是今天，什么东西能致癌，什么东西对身体有什么好处，大量的这些“知识”，花了无数的钱搞的研究，发表了无数篇论文，全是相关性的知识 —— 而且相关系数还很低。
Even today, what causes cancer, what benefits the body, the amount of “knowledge”, the amount of money spent on research, and the number of papers published, all of which are relevant knowledge -- and the coefficients are very low.
科学家不知道花费了多大功夫，才算正式建立了“吸烟能导致肺癌”这个因果关系。能建立因果关系是很不容易的。能找到一个显著的相关性？你就偷着乐吧。
Scientists don't know how much effort it takes to formally establish the causality of "smoking causes lung cancer." It's not easy to create a causal relationship. Find a significant correlation. Go ahead and enjoy it.
相关性不等于因果性，这应该怎么去区分呢？如果存在相关性，那么就应该是对结果的一个影响因素，这也不属于因果吗？还是说一定要是根本原因导致的结果才能称为因果关系？请老师解惑。
Relevance is not the same as causality; how should it be distinguished? If it is relevant, it should be a factor in the outcome. Is that not cause or effect? Or must it be the result of the underlying cause in order to be called causality?
万维钢
Man-Dive Steel
建立因果关系最好的办法是大规模随机试验。有相关性，也可以互相之间毫无影响因素。比如说，冰激凌销量上升的时候，游泳淹死的人数也增加了 —— 这就是一个很强的相关性，但是二者之间没有任何因果关系 —— 它们都是被另一个因素，“夏天”，影响的。
The best way to build causality is a large-scale random experiment. There's a correlation, and there's nothing to do with each other. For example, when ice cream sales rise, the number of people swimming and drowning increases -- that's a strong correlation, but there's no causal connection between the two -- they're all affected by another factor, the summer.
可是话说回来，假设我是一个对“夏天”一无所知的人工智能政府官员，我根据这个相关性，一听说冰激凌销量在上升，就下令往海滩多派救生员做好准备，我这仍然是个科学决策。
But then again, assuming that I am an AI official who knows nothing about “summer”, based on this correlation, as soon as I heard that ice cream sales were rising, I ordered more lifeguards on the beach to be prepared, and I am still a scientific decision.
很多情况下相关性就足够了。
In many cases, relevance is sufficient.
万维钢
Man-Dive Steel
“斯多葛控制二分法”解决的是心理问题，是个“安心”之法，但并不是决策之法。
“Stoggy control dichotomy” solves psychological problems and is a form of “comfort” but not a method of decision-making.
如果只有一份希望，那到底要努力到什么程度呢？这是一个决策问题。咱们说得直接一点，如果这个家庭有好几个孩子，那么父母把全部资源都投入到这一个患病的孩子身上，恐怕就不是最佳选择。就算只有这一个孩子，也要综合考虑多种因素，比如说父母本身的幸福，似乎也应该考虑在内。我并不是说不爱孩子，如果我的孩子需要我牺牲生命，我绝对愿意 —— 但这里的意思是我们总要做个决策。不管怎么决策，最后决策的内容，也就是投入到这个孩子身上资源（包括时间和金钱），相信都是当前条件下所能做到的最多资源。
If there is only one hope, what is the extent of the effort? This is a decision-making question. Let's be direct, if there are several children in this family, then it may not be the best option for parents to invest all their resources on this sick child. Even if there is only one child, a combination of factors, such as the well-being of parents themselves, should be taken into account. I am not saying that I don't love children, and if my children need me to sacrifice my life, I would love it -- but this means that we always have to make a decision. Whatever the decision, the final decision, that is, to invest in the child's resources (including time and money), is the best that can be done under current conditions.
而决策都有风险。怎么面对这个风险，“斯多葛控制二分法”就有用了。家长能控制的，就是好好调研做出最合理的决策，然后好好执行这个决策。该花多少时间花多少时间，该拿多少钱拿多少钱。至于最后结果如何，那就是家长不能控制的 —— 所以不论如何都应该坦然面对。
And there's a risk to decision-making. It's good to be faced with this risk. Parents can control it by making the most rational decisions, and then by doing so. How much time it takes, how much money it costs. And the end result is that the parents can't control it -- so no matter what.
万维钢
Man-Dive Steel
我理解佛学说的“不二”，就是不要有分别心，不要给东西贴标签。你去买水果，面对一堆水果挑来挑去，卖水果的就问你挑什么？你说我要挑“好的” —— 卖水果的说：“哪一个不是好的？”
I understand the Buddha's saying, "No difference, no labeling." You go shopping for fruit, pick it up against a pile of fruit, ask the fruit seller what you want. You say I pick "good" -- the fruit seller says, "What's not good?"
这大约就是不二。谁是好人、谁是坏人？不同条件下表现不同而已。说“意会”就高级，“大数据”就低级，这就是“二”，就是分别心。说我对两个功夫都尊重，该用哪个用哪个，这就是“不二”。……这只是我对“不二”的理解。
That's about the same thing. Who's the good guy, who's the bad guy? It's different under different conditions. When you say "intuitive," you say "big data," it's lower, it's "two," it's different. When I say that I respect both kung fu, it's the same thing.
万维钢
Man-Dive Steel
这是对斯多葛派的常见批评，但斯多葛派并不是逆来顺受。最本质的区别在于，到底什么是“我不能控制的”？
This is a common criticism of the Stogs, but the Stogs are not counterproductive. The essential difference is, what is “I can't control”?
比如我雇了个帆船要出海，那么海上的天气状况，就是我不能控制的。天气不好，船夫说走不了，那我就只能等 —— 斯多葛哲学告诉我要乐呵呵地接受这个现实。
For example, I hired a sailboat to sail, and the weather at sea was beyond my control. The weather was bad, the boatman said I couldn't leave, and I had to wait -- Stogue Philosophy told me to be happy with that reality.
可是如果天气状况还可以，但是船夫欺负我，非说走不了，那就不行了 —— 我控制不了天气，但是可以在一定程度上左右船夫。
But if it's okay with the weather, but the boatman can't leave unless he bullys me -- I can't control the weather, but he can control it to some extent.
“逆来顺受”是自己完全被动，别人让怎么样就怎么样；斯多葛派则要求我们把精力全部用在能够积极主动的地方。
“Responsiveness” is one's own total passivity, as others let it be; the Stooges demand that we devote all our energy to places where we can be proactive.
大数据为啥预测股价没什么效果呢？是因为波动过于频繁，没法计量，还是因为过于复杂，变量太多，无法建模？
Why does big data predict stock prices have little effect? Is it because fluctuations are too frequent to measure, or because they are too complicated and too many variables to model?
万维钢
Man-Dive Steel
复杂也是一个原因，但还有更本质的原因。是因为预测结果会直接影响被预测的对象。索罗斯曾经打过一个比方。比如我说“今天会下雨”，这个预测对老天没什么影响，该下雨下雨该不下不下，老天不会在意我的预测。但是如果我对你说“你是我的敌人”，那就不一样了 —— 也许你本来不是我的敌人，你听了我这句话，就成了我的敌人。对股价的预测就属于后一种。
Complexity is also a cause, but there is a more fundamental reason. Because predictions can directly affect the object of predictions. Soros used to make a metaphor. For example, I said, "It's going to rain today," a prediction that doesn't affect God. It's supposed to rain. God doesn't care about my predictions. But if I say to you, "You're my enemy," it's different -- maybe you're not my enemy, and you listen to me, and it's my enemy. The projection of stock prices is the latter.
如果有金融机构对股价有很好的预测，那么他就会采取行动 —— 而他的行动会影响股价，别人再跟风而动，股价也就不是他之前预测的那个股价了。
If a financial institution had a good estimate of the stock price, he would have taken action -- and his action would have affected the stock price, and it wouldn't have been the stock price he had predicted.
所以在股市中，每个预测股价的数学模型都只能使用一阵子。用这个模型的人多了，这个模型就不好使了，你就得再研究新模型。但这也不是说任何模型都没用，有些模型在一定时期之内似乎是的确有用。
So in the stock market, every mathematical model that predicts the share price can only be used for a while. More people use this model, and it's not easy, so you have to study a new model.
咱们以前讲《未来简史》的时候提到历史学家本质上不可能预测未来，也是同样的道理。
It is the same thing that we mentioned earlier in the Brief History of the Future that historians are inherently incapable of predicting the future.
万维钢
Man-Dive Steel
这就和平常的科研项目是一样的，科学家弄了那么多科研结果，普通人怎么才能分享呢？我们至少可以多了解一些研究者从大数据中获得的有价值信息。
This is the same as normal research projects, where scientists get so much research, how can ordinary people share it? We can at least learn more about the valuable information some researchers get from big data.
你得知道去哪找 —— 搜索是个很好的技能，会阅读学术论文是个更好的技能。平时看看新闻，也很好。
You have to know where to look -- search is a good skill, reading academic papers is a better skill. You look at the news, and you look at the news.
你还得能判断可信程度 —— 贝叶斯方法（观点随事实发生改变）是个好办法。罗辑思维视频，去年有一期节目叫《我们到底该信谁》，就是说的这个问题。
And you've got to be able to judge the credibility -- the Bayesian method is a good way to do it. The idea video, last year's show called "Who Should We Believe"? That's the question.
李翔知识内参 ?比特币价格飙升的三个原因
Three reasons why the price of bitcoin has soared.
对，你没有看错，李翔知识内参貌似是免费了，至少这天是（和其他的免费试读不一样，是提供下载功能的）。喜大普奔。
Yes, you're right. Li Shang's knowledge seems to be free, at least this day (in contrast to the other free readings, it's a downloading function). Hei Da Ben.
3. 原来定义的东西会重新定义
3. What was originally defined will be redefined
科技 ?BAT ?人工智能
Technology? BAT? Artificial intelligence?
阿里巴巴集团董事局主席马云5月26日在中国国际大数据产业博览会上，谈论到同时期在乌镇发生的围棋国手柯洁对弈AlphaGo时说：“下围棋本来就在等对方下一步错棋我赢一把，结果对方机器从来不会下错棋，算得又理性又客观，还算得比你快，你想三步，它三百步都想好了，还永远不错棋，这有什么意思，把我们最快乐的东西剥夺掉，还侮辱我们一把。”他说，对AlphaGo，“我并不以为然，尤其中国很多公司，别再去搞Alpha Go这样的东西了，没有多大意义，你们可以做的事情实在太多了。”
The Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Alibaba Group, Mawin, at the China International Big Data Industry Fair on May 26, talked about the chess player, Koji, who had been playing in Utown at the same time, who said, “I don't think that it's important for Alpha Go, especially for many Chinese companies, to stop doing things like Alpha Go. It's not too much for you to do.”
之所以持有这样的观点，是因为马云认为， 人类没有必要去跟机器叫板谁更聪明。 “诞生石油之后我们一定要搞清楚，我们一定跑不过火车、飞机。从人类第一次发明计算机之后，我们就会预感，原来定义的这些东西将会重新定义。我们一定不可能在机器传统计算、储存、理性、持久度上胜过它。”
The reason for holding such a view is because Ma Huen believes that there is no need for human beings to speak to machines who are smarter than they are. “When oil is born, we must know that we can't run a train or a plane. From the first time we've invented a computer, we'll feel that the original definition of these things will be redefined. We'll never be able to beat the machine in terms of conventional computing, storage, rationality, durability.”
希望马云的高明这番开导能让柯洁听到。
I hope Ma Yun's brilliant leadership will make it possible for Koji to hear it.
我们不会和锤子比头硬，也不会和汽车比长跑，我们只会把他们当做让自己生活更美好的工具。
We will not be hard on hammers or long on cars, and we will only use them as tools to make our lives better.
4. 比特币价格疯涨的原因
4. Reasons for the skyrocketing prices of bitcoin
数字货币 ?科技 ?金融
♪ Digital currency ♪ technology ♪ finance ♪
从2017年年初到现在，比特币的价格已经上涨了130%，单枚比特币价格在5月24日达到2400美元。《财富》杂志作者杰夫·罗伯茨（Jeff John Roberts）说，比特币飙升有三个原因。
From the beginning of 2017 to the present, the price of Bitcoin has risen by 130%, with a single bitcoin price of $2,400 on 24 May. Jeff John Roberts, the author of Wealth magazine, says that there are three reasons why Bitcoin has soared.
第一个原因是，对数字货币的全球性需求在增加。像比特币这样的数字货币渐渐开始被投资者接受为一种新型资产。还有人认为数字货币就像黄金一样，可以在主权国家货币不稳定时实现保值。
The first reason is that the global demand for digital currencies is increasing. Digital currencies like Bitcoins are beginning to be accepted by investors as a new type of asset.
第二个原因是，2017年4月初，日本监管部门出台新规，开始将比特币视为银行体系的一部分，而不是一种未发货币。这引发了日本的比特币交易热潮。大量投资者把日元兑换成比特币。此外，中国投资者对比特币也很狂热。包括中国和日本在内的亚洲投资者也在推动比特币快速蹿升。
The second reason is that, in early April 2017, Japan’s regulators introduced a new regulation that began to treat Bitcoin as part of the banking system rather than as an undistributed currency. This triggered a boom in Japanese bitcoin transactions.
第三个原因是，很可能比特币正处在新一轮的炒作循环中。在过去比特币也曾有过暴涨、媒体大量关注和大跌的循环。在上涨周期中，看好比特币的人远远超过持反对意见的人。其中一个原因是，“真正了解数字货币的人寥寥无几，而其中大多数又都拥有大量比特币，这就造成持怀疑态度的人不是那么多。
The third reason is that bitcoin is likely to be in a new cycle of booming, media attention, and falling cycles in the past. In the uplifting cycle, the number of people watching bitcoin far exceeds the number of opponents. One reason is that, “There are very few people who really know digital money, and most of them have large amounts of bitcoins, which is not so many skeptics.
6. 波士顿&阿里巴巴：中国消费新群体
Boston & Ali Baba: China's new consumer group
报告 ?消费
Report? Consumption?
5月26日，波士顿咨询公司联手阿里巴巴，推出了一份关于中国消费趋势的新报告。报告中提到了现在 中国的三个新兴消费群体，分别是“潮男经济”、“银色经济”，还有“单身经济”。
On May 26, Boston Consulting, in conjunction with Ali Baba, launched a new report on consumption trends in China. The report refers to three emerging consumer groups in China today, namely, the tidal economy, the silver economy and the single economy.
1. 潮男经济。我们一般觉得女性才是购物的主力军，但这份报告发现，出生在80和90年代的男性和父辈不同，他们会翻看男性时尚杂志，愿意花钱来打理自己的衣着和发型，喜欢去健身会所和各种俱乐部。数据显示，中国男性消费者每年的平均开支已经超过了女性，就算是在护肤品的市场中，男性消费品的市场增幅也达到了24%。
1. We generally think that women are the main force in shopping, but the report finds that, unlike men and fathers born in the 1980s and 1990s, they look at men’s fashion magazines and are willing to spend money on their clothes and hairs and on gymnasiums and clubs. The data show that China’s average annual spending by male consumers exceeds that of women, and even in the skin-care market, the market for male consumer goods has increased by 24%.
2. 银色经济。指的是老年人的消费，报告发现，现在的老年人心态更年轻，更“不服老”，他们退休之后不愿意只是照看儿孙、养花读书，更愿意去过丰富多彩的晚年生活，比如培养新的爱好、出去旅游等等。拿老年人的旅游市场来说，从2012年到2015年增长迅速，平均年增长率超过了20%。
2. The silver economy. With regard to the consumption of older persons, the report found that older persons now have a younger mentality and a more “old age”: they do not want to take care of their children and grandchildren, raise flowers and study, and are more willing to go to a rich and varied life of later life, such as the development of new hobbies, travel, etc. The tourism market for older persons grew rapidly from 2012 to 2015, with an average annual growth rate of more than 20 per cent.
3. 单身经济。报告中提到，中国社会已经迎来了历史上最大的一波“单身潮”，35岁以上依然单身的人群比10年前涨了4倍多。报告认为，“一个人”会催生一种新的消费形态，很多企业现在都在为单身人群定制产品和服务，比如单人KTV、餐厅的单人座位、更小型的冰箱，还有更精致的小户型房子等等。
The report states that Chinese society has reached the largest wave of singles in history, with more than four times as many people over the age of 35 still single as 10 years ago. The report argues that “one person” can trigger a new consumption pattern, and that many enterprises are now customizing products and services for singles, such as single KTVs, single seats in restaurants, smaller refrigerators, and more sophisticated small-house houses.
7. 如何更好地进行日程管理
7. How to improve agenda management
时间管理
Time management
《快公司》网站上5月21日发表了一篇文章，就日程管理这个话题，采访了10位CEO。
On 21 May, the Express Company website published an article that interviewed 10 CEOs on the subject of agenda management.
初创公司Doist的CEO阿米尔（Amir Salihefendic）说：“ 比起应用程序，拥有一个靠谱的个人时间管理系统更重要。 这个系统要能帮助你分辨哪些任务比较重要，提醒你优先尽快处理，避免因为事情繁杂而感到不堪重负。所以，你要建立这样一个系统，而不是只用日程管理的app。”
According to Amir Salihefendic, the start-up company Doist, "It is more important than an application to have an individual time management system. The system will help you to sort out what tasks are important, reminding you of the priority of dealing with as soon as possible and avoiding being overwhelmed by the complexity of the matter.
其他CEO的建议还包括：1.任务清单尽可能简短紧急，比如在一张便签上写上几个今天必须完成的任务，这样就能避免任务一拖就是好几天。2.只处理自己记得的任务，一家高档床上用品公司的CEO说：“我通常都是尽量把事情记在脑子里，很少把要做的事情写下来。我一般不会忘记自己要做的事情，至少不会忘记自己该记住的事情。”3.优先处理那些大概永远不会出现在任务清单上的事情，比如，照顾好自己，保证充足的睡眠和良好的饮食，这是处理好所有事情最关键的任务。
Other CEO proposals include: 1. The list of tasks should be as brief as possible and urgent as , e.g. by writing on a handpick a few tasks that must be done today, so that the task can be avoided for several days. 2. Dealing only with tasks that you remember , a high-end bedware company CEO says: “I usually try to keep things in my head and rarely write down what is to be done. I usually don't forget what I have to do, at least not what I remember.” 3. Give priority to things that are probably never on the list of tasks, such as taking care of myself, guaranteeing adequate sleep and a good diet, which is the most critical task of dealing with everything.
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