价格疲软之际，比特币或将在本周五迎来诞生十五年来的第四次“减半”。这一事件将成为币圈近期最受关注、最具影响力的头条新闻。
At a time of weak prices, Bitcoin, or its fourth “half” in 15 years of existence this Friday, will become the most interesting and influential news in the currency world in the near future.
不熟悉比特币网络运作的人可能会有一些疑问：什么是“减半”，什么时候会发生，为什么有必要，以及它可能对比特币价格产生什么样的影响?
Those who are not familiar with the operation of the Bitcoin network may have some questions: what is “a reduction by half”, when will it happen, why is it necessary, and what impact it may have on bitcoin prices?
什么是“减半”? 有何必要?
What is “half” and what is necessary?
所谓“减半”，就是矿工通过挖矿获得的奖励“减半”。每当比特币区块链产生21万个区块时，比特币区块奖励都会减半。
The so-called “50-per-cent” is the “50-percent” of the incentives that miners get through mining. Every time the Bitcoin block chain produces 210,000 blocks, the Bitcoin block incentives are halved.
目前，在挖矿竞赛中获胜的矿工将获得6.25块比特币的奖励，减半后，奖励将降至3.125块。
At present, the miners who won in the mining competition will receive an incentive of 6.25 bitcoins, which will be reduced by half to 3.125.
比特币的创造者Satoshi Nakamoto设计比特币时就确定了固定供应量，使其有别于美元等法定货币。根据比特币协议代码中的规则，比特币总量只能有2100万个。比特币专家认为，最后一块比特币预计将在2140年前后被挖出。
Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, designed Bitcoins in such a way as to distinguish them from legal currencies such as the United States dollar. According to the rules in the Bitcoins protocol code, the amount of bitcoins is only 21 million. Bitcoins experts believe that the last bitcoins are expected to be dug up around 2140.
每当矿工成功挖出一个新区块，就会获得一定数量的比特币奖励，这些奖励旨在激励矿工为比特币网络提供算力。
Whenever miners succeed in digging out a new block, they receive a certain amount of bitcoin incentives designed to motivate miners to provide arithmetic for the Bitcoin network.
矿工们就像是比特币网络的守护者，他们不仅要竞争计算资源，还肩负着维护系统稳定运行的重任。每一笔交易都需要经过矿工们的验证确认，只有获得足够多矿工的认可，交易才能最终写入区块链，成为永久的记录。
Miners are like guardians of the Bitcoin network, not only competing for computational resources, but also bearing the burden of maintaining a stable system. Each transaction needs to be certified by the miners, and only if there is enough approval from the miners can the transaction eventually be written into the chain of blocks and become a permanent record.
比特币初期，矿工只需在笔记本电脑上运行软件节点即可获得比特币。但随着竞争日趋激烈，矿工现在必须使用强大的计算机，耗费大量能源方能保持竞争力。
In the early days of Bitcoin, miners had to run software nodes on laptops to get bitcoins. But, as competition intensified, miners now had to use powerful computers, consuming a lot of energy to remain competitive.
比特币的设计初衷之一，就是要成为一种通缩资产，即随着时间推移，其价值会不断增加。因此，为了让比特币成为通缩资产，矿工获得的比特币奖励必须随着时间推移而减少，从而限制比特币的总供应量。
Bitcoin was designed to be a deflationary asset, whose value will increase over time. Thus, in order for Bitcoin to become a deflationary asset, the bitcoin incentives received by miners must be reduced over time, thus limiting the total supply of bitcoins.
FOREX.com和City Index全球研究主管Matt Weller在给MarketWatch的评论中表示：
In their comments to Marketwatch, Matt Weller, Global Research Manager for FOREX.com and City Index, said:
“减半”的主要目的是控制比特币供应，创造通缩的经济环境。通过放缓新比特币的产生速度，假设需求保持稳定或增加，减半有助于维持稀缺性，提升加密货币的价值。
The main objective of “50-per-cent” is to control the supply of bitcoins and create a deflationary economic environment. By slowing the pace of production of new bitcoins, reducing them by half would help to maintain scarcity and increase the value of encrypted currencies, assuming that demand will remain stable or increase.
“减半”何时发生?
When does “50-50” happen?
律所Baker Botts的技术合伙人Ali Dhanani表示，没人能确切说出“减半”何时发生，但在比特币区块链的第840000个区块完成后就会发生。
According to Ali Dhanani, a technical partner in Baker Botts, no one can say exactly when the “half” occurred, but it will happen when the 840,000th block of the Bitcoin block chain is completed.
根据blockchain.com的数据，截至周一晚间，比特币区块链已达到第839400个区块(还在增加)。Dhanani表示，如果平均每10分钟挖出一个区块，这意味着“减半”将在周一晚间后的4.3天发生，也就是美东时间周五晚上或周六凌晨。
According to Blockchai.com, by the end of the week, the Bitcoin block chain had reached the 839,400th block (which is still increasing). According to Dhanani, if one block is dug up every 10 minutes, this means that “half” will occur 4.3 days after the end of the week, that is, Friday night or Saturday morning, United States East Time.
每挖出210000个区块，矿工完成一个区块获得的奖励就“减半”。
For every 210,000 blocks that have been excavated, the incentive given to miners to complete one block is “half by half”.
过去，这平均需要四年左右。第一次减半发生在2012年11月26日，第二次在2016年7月11日，第三次在2020年5月11日。
In the past, this took an average of about four years. The first halving took place on 26 November 2012, the second on 11 July 2016 and the third on 11 May 2020.
此外据Weller统计，之前几次“减半”都发生在比特币牛市周期开始前几个月。
In addition, according to Weller, the previous “half-per-cent” occurred a few months before the start of the Bitcoin cattle cycle.
“减半”如何影响比特币价格?
How does “50-per-cent” affect bitcoin prices?
根据历史经验，减半对比特币价格的即时支撑有限。
Based on historical experience, the immediate support of halving the price of the bitcoin is limited.
据Weller介绍，理论上，“减半”对比特币价格的影响可能已经反映，因为大致日期已提前知晓。
According to Weller, theoretically, the impact of “half-per-cent” of the price of the bitcoin may already have been reflected, as approximate dates are known in advance.
但这次出现了新情况——以往比特币创下历史新高后，从未这么快就迎来减半。分析师认为本次“减半”可能是今年加密市场涨势的推手之一。
But this time there is a new picture – never so soon after the historic high of Bitcoin. Analysts believe that this “half” could be one of the driving forces behind this year’s boom in encryption markets.
除此以外，美联储暗示2024年降息，以及今年早些时候推出比特币现货ETF均影响了比特币的走势。
In addition, the Fed implied that the 2024 rate reduction and the introduction of the Bitcoin spot ETF earlier this year had affected the movement of Bitcoin.
比特币“减半”，矿商“躺枪”？
Bitcoin's half, miner's gun?
相较于比特币价格，到目前为止，“减半”似乎对Marathon Digital等比特币矿商的股价影响更大。
To date, the “50-per-cent” appears to have had a greater impact on the share price of a bitcoin miner such as Marathon Digital than the Bitcoin price.
Marathon Digital股价今年以来已跌逾36%，截至周一收盘为15.15美元。
Marathon Digital's share price has fallen by more than 36 per cent since this year, with a closing of $15.15 as of Monday.
其他矿商股价年初以来也经历了暴跌，包括Riot Platforms，2024年以来跌近45%，周一收于8.57美元。
Other miners have also experienced sharp declines in stock prices since the beginning of the year, including Riot Platforms, which has fallen by almost 45 per cent since 2024 and received $8.57 on Monday.
这很好理解，“减半”直接影响了矿工两大收入来源之一的挖矿奖励（另一大来源是交易费），然而，矿工的运营成本，如电费、设备费用等，并不会因为减半而降低。
It is well understood that “50-per-cent” directly affects mining incentives from one of the two main revenue sources of miners (the other being transaction costs), but the operating costs of miners, such as electricity, equipment, etc., will not be reduced by halving them.
这就意味着，如果比特币价格和交易费没有大幅上涨，以抵消奖励“减半”的影响，许多矿工可能会面临盈利困难。
This means that many miners may face profitability difficulties if Bitcoin prices and transaction costs are not substantially increased to offset the impact of the “half-per-cent” incentive.
本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。
This paper does not constitute a personal investment proposal. It does not represent a point of view. The market is at risk.
原标题：《币圈大事件！比特币减半，或在周五！》
Original title: The Big Currency Circle! Halve Bitcoin, or Friday!
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