比特币产量减半 价格或不受影响

　　众多比特币参与者关于7月9日全球比特币产量减半的预测或许早了那么一点点，北京时间2016年7月10日0点46分比特币第420000个区块被挖出。新区块比特币产量正式由25比特币减半为12.5比特币。比特币每四年减产一次，这是自2012年11月28日以后比特币第二次产量减半，总量2100万枚的比特币，已经被挖出了1575万枚比特币。截至截稿时间，火币网交易平台显示比特币近期横盘震荡，比特币走势并未如人们所预期出现大涨大跌。

Bitcoin production is officially halved from 25 bitcoins to 12.5 bitcoins. Bitcoins are cut by half every four years, the second time by 21 million bitcoins since 28 November 2012, and 157.5 million bitcoins have been excavated. As of the time of the cut-off, the pyrotechnic platform shows a recent tremor of Bitcoins, and the movement of bitcoins is not as steep as expected.

　　7月8日，清华大学五道口金融学院互联网金融实验室、新浪科技与中国比特币交易平台火币网联合出品了《2014-2016全球比特币发展报告》（以下简称《报告》），火币运营副总裁朱嘉伟在解读报告时认为，除非比特币有重大利好信息，如应用上的推进，比特币减半不大可能会使比特币出现暴涨行情。

On 8 July, Qinghua University’s five-lant Finance Institute’s Internet Finance Laboratory, Xinwa Technology and China’s Bitcoin trading platform’s Signal Network produced the Global Bitcoin Development Report 2014-2016 (hereinafter referred to as “the Report”), which was read by Vice-President Chu Jia Wei, who considered that, unless Bitcoin had significant good information, it was unlikely that the halving of Bitcoin would lead to a surge in Bitcoin unless it was applied.

　　2009年至2012年，比特币经历了第一次减半。在比特币的第一个减半周期内，比特币的价格从零上涨到最高30美元。对此朱嘉伟认为，推动价格上升的，是人们对比特币价值的认可，而不是供应量的变化。回顾比特币第一次产量减半时的价格走势，前后半个月时间之内，比特币并未出现大涨行情而是一直横盘震荡。

In the first halved cycle of Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin rose from zero to a maximum of $30. In this case, Jojavi argued that the price rise was driven by a recognition of Bitcoin’s value, not by a change in supply.

　　根据朱嘉伟对《报告》的解释，比特币作为一种“去中心化”的电子货币，其发行是一件公开透明的事情，它的价值取决于人们对算法和系统的认可。在这样的机制下，所有比特币系统的参与者都可以对这个变量做出预判和应对，这就导致产量对价格的影响能够被提前消化。因此，比特币价格的波动有其可预测性。

According to Chu's interpretation of the Report, Bitcoin as an “decentralized” electronic currency is issued in an open and transparent manner, and its value depends on acceptance of algorithms and systems. Under such a mechanism, all Bitcoin system participants can prejudge and respond to this variable, leading to an earlier digestion of the impact of production on prices.

　　火币网交易历史数据显示，比特币价格自2015年1月至9月一直处于低位徘徊，价格一度下探至900人民币。10月开始上涨至今，6月17日最高价一度达到5179.99人民币，涨幅惊人。不可排除产量减半一定程度上也是此次比特币上涨的因素之一，在产量真正减半之前价格已经提前做出反应。

The history of the gun-net trade shows that bitcoin prices have been at a low level since January to September 2015 and that prices have for some time fallen to RMB 900. The rise since October has reached a peak of RMB 5179.99 on 17 June, an alarming increase. To a certain extent, halving production is also one of the factors behind the increase in bitcoin, and prices have responded well in advance of the real reduction of production.

　　另据《报告》显示，2015年，火币网贵宾用户中女性比例为10%，而在2016年这一比例升至15.63%。会上一位女士表示，她名下有多个比特币交易账户，火币网上线时这位女士便已经成为注册用户。“中国大妈”这一称呼已经在投资圈内赫赫有名，她们动辄就疯狂“吸金”，又或者频繁出入于股市交易大厅实盘操作。此轮比特币暴涨亦不能忽略“中国大妈”们的能量。

According to the Report, in 2015 the proportion of women among the number of VIPs in the gunnet rose to 15.63% in 2016. One woman stated that she had several bitcoin trading accounts and that the woman had become a registered user when it was online.

　　另一方面，比特币自诞生以来一直与黄金进行比较，但是目前比特币的应用十分脆弱，远不如黄金，加上比特币本身没有涨跌幅限制，所以一旦有比较重大的突发消息，比特币价格波动就会比较明显。根据《报告》中最新一次的抽样调查，火币网中有80.77%的用户交易比特币是为了短期盈利，通过差价赚取利润；有13.81%的用户将比特币当做避险资产，长期持有；还有1.26%用户是为了进行支付。用户短线交易，高抛低吸等赚取差价的交易行为一定程度上也会加大比特币的价格波动。因此，比特币日涨跌幅大于10%的情况也是屡见不鲜。

Bitcoin, on the other hand, has been compared with gold since its birth, but its current application is far less fragile than gold, and there is no limit on its own increase or fall, so that when there is a more significant flash news, bitcoin price fluctuations are more pronounced. According to the latest sample survey in the Report, 80.77% of users in the currency network traded bitcoins for short-term profit and profit through a margin; 13.81% of users used bitcoins as a hedge asset and held them for long periods; and 1.26% of users for payment.

　　比特币的发行机制是模拟黄金。朱嘉伟解释道，首先，黄金全球储量基本上恒定，所以比特币总量也是恒定的；其次，黄金开采的难度会随着时间的推移越来越难，比特币也是如此。因此，比特币又称为“电子黄金”。

Bitcoin’s distribution mechanism is a simulation of gold. Joji explained that, first, the global stock of gold is basically constant, so the amount of bitcoin is constant; second, the difficulty of gold mining will become more difficult over time, as will bitcoin. So, Bitcoin is called “electronic gold”.

　　但是比特币作为一种电子货币，其实际应用却有限，且在我国并不被央行认可作为一种支付手段。央行行长周小川曾经指出：“比特币更像是一种资产和收藏品，有点类似收藏的邮票，而不是支付货币工具。”近日召开的首届大数据金融论坛上，中国人民银行调查统计司司长盛松成也重提了“比特币不是真正的货币”这一观点。他表示：“只要国家这一社会组织形态不发生根本性变化，以国家信用为基础的货币体系就将始终存在，比特币以及其他虚拟货币就成不了一国的本位币，比特币实际上只是一种技术的运用，最多也就是一种资产，而不是真正意义上的货币。”

But the practical application of Bitcoin as an electronic currency is limited and is not recognized as a means of payment in our country. Central Bank President Zhou Xiaochuan once said: “Bitco is more of an asset and a collection of stamps similar to a collection of money, rather than a payment tool.” At the first major data finance forum recently held, the Director of the Statistics Division of the People's Bank of China, Xin Xin Song, also reiterated the view that “bitcoin is not a real currency.” He said: “As long as there is no fundamental change in the shape of the country's social organization, a monetary system based on national credit will always exist, and Bitcoin and other virtual currencies will not be a local currency of a country, and Bitcoin is in fact only a technical application, at best an asset, not a currency in the true sense.”

　　值得关注的是，有消息称我国已在数字货币关键技术及相关法律研究上取得了阶段性成果。央行正研究数字货币的多场景应用，争取早日推出央行发行的数字货币。据了解，未来的数字货币发行依然采取“中心化”方式，流动管理则毫不含糊借鉴区块链技术，实现对数据采集与对资金流向的实时追踪。鉴于此，比特币在我国的使用价值可能更多地依然来自赚取差价的投资价值，投资者不宜过度狂热，也要认清风险。

It is a matter of concern that there are reports that the country has achieved milestones in key digital currency technology and related legal research. The central bank is studying multiple scenarios for digital currency applications, with a view to the early launch of digital money issued by the central bank.