比特币行业第一桶金：挖矿机的风险和疯狂

ASICME的创始人是校内网联合创始人杨曜睿，这个从想买挖矿机买不到看到商机的人，开始了比特币的掘金路。

The founder of ASICME, Mr. Yang Xiaoyin, co-founder of the campus network, who had never been able to buy a miner to see a business, began the gold-digging road in Bitcoin.

这样的卖家已经开始越来越多，但是否能出货，还得依靠芯片商是否发货。

The number of such vendors is increasing, but the ability to deliver depends on whether or not the chip dealer delivers the goods.

半年一大变 风险和疯狂并存

six months of changing risks and madness

问过两个从业人士，半年后市场如何？答曰，不知道。那半年后挖矿机核心靠什么？答曰，不好说。

Asked two practitioners about the market in six months? Answer, no. What's the core of the miner in six months? Answer, it's hard to say.

这是一个绝对风险的市场。现在的三家芯片商明年说不定就是五家，现在的性能第一明年可能就会被淘汰。要记住上面说到的那个博弈，你要获得超过别人的挖矿效率，你就需要领先平均性能的强大挖矿机。而技术是每天在变的。

This is an absolute market of risk. Now the three chip dealers are probably five next year, and they're going to lose their performance in the first year. Remember that game, if you're going to get more efficient than others, you're going to need to get ahead with a powerful miner with average performance. And technology is changing every day.

甚至有人拿摩尔定律来说挖矿机行业，只不过摩尔定律的时间是18个月，而挖矿机的变化可能是三分之一的时间。

Even the Moor Law is used to refer to the miner industry, although the Moor Law is 18 months old, and the change in the miner may be one third of the time.

变数如此大的市场意味着什么？创业运营的风险绝对是第一位。如何管理库存、消化升级，如何接触市场，都没有一个绝对的标准。好在等着用机器的人很多，毕竟晚一天开始挖矿，就晚一天获得财富。

There is no absolute criterion of how to manage stocks, digest and upgrade, and how to access markets. There are plenty of people waiting to use machines, after all, to start digging later, and to get wealth one day later.

这是一个疯狂的行业，这也有一个绝对的风险。最大的风险是政策。虽然比特币已经有了五年的时间，但之前没有对全球货币有直接的冲击并没有收到监管，各国也没有相应的对策。但按照比特币的梦想，这就是在挖金子，而国家的政策直接决定其价值。如果统一取缔，这就将是挖矿者的南柯一梦。

This is a crazy industry, and there is an absolute risk. The biggest risk is policy.

好在这个梦足够美好，不少人愿意做。更巧的是，越多的人愿意做，这个梦成真的可能性越大。

It's good that this dream is beautiful enough for a lot of people to want to do it. What's more, the more people want to do it, the more likely it is that it will come true.

挖矿机行业也有一个本身的风险，随着挖矿难度越来越高，机器升级速度下来，获得超过别人性能矿机的难度增加，挖矿机会变得不再好卖。这是否还是一个好生意呢？好在ASICME等对比特币着了迷的团队都表示，离机器升级速度达到瓶颈还有几年的时间，挖矿机这只是第一桶金，看好比特币行业的长期发展，未来就打算围着比特币干了。

The miner industry also has its own risks. As it becomes more difficult to dig, the machine upgrades down, it becomes more difficult to acquire more than others’ performance machines, and the opportunity to dig is no longer good. Is this a good business? For a few years, according to teams that are fascinated by bitcoin, such as ASICME, the machine is only the first barrel of gold, looking at the long-term development of the bitcoin industry and planning to do it around bitcoin.