今天，币总看到BMAN的区块链熊市生存指南，传得很广，里面主要把比特币产量减半预计为下一次上涨的时间（2013、2017年大涨都是比特币产量减半的后一年），如果依据此判断，下次减半是在2020年，那么真正离开熊市要等到2021年了，那么2018到2020年，就是区块链寒冬了。
Today, the currency has seen the BMAN's guide to the survival of the chain bear city, which is mainly expected to reduce bitcoin production by half to the time of the next increase (the sharp increase in 2013 and 2017 is one year after the halving of bitcoin production). If, according to this judgement, the next half is in 2020, then the real exit from Bear City will be until 2021, and the period between 2018 and 2020 will be the winter of the block chain.
而币信超级君吴广庚也跟了评论，说了说此前的穿越牛熊的经历：“回顾历史的话，2014年下半年到2015年上半年是最难熬的，2015年下半年虽然币价低，但心里已经习惯了这种低迷，就不算难熬，至于2016上半年，币价跃跃欲试最容易丢掉筹码，2016年下半年守住了，2017年丰盛硕果就完整吃到了。”
And the comment was also made about the previous experience of crossing cattle bears: “Looking back at history, the second half of 2014 to the first half of 2015 was the hardest one, and it was not too hard for me to get used to it in the second half of 2015, even though the currency was low. For the first half of 2016, currency leaps were the easiest to lose. They were held in the second half of 2016, and the fruits were fully eaten in 2017.”
从去年比特币期货上市开始，传统金融通过合法渠道入行，夺权，开始给原来的老规则松松土了，当年老美是怎样用期货抓住黄金这头巨牛的尾巴的，现在就会用怎样的办法来驯服比特币。
Starting last year, when Bitcoin futures were on the market, traditional finance came through legal channels and took power, and the old rules were loose. How old America caught the tail of a giant gold cow with futures would now tame Bitcoin.
而今年，区块链熊市中的唯一希望，就是期货之后更为强大的基金：比特币ETF，要知道，ETF是美国高净值80后趋之若鹜的投资工具。
And this year, the only hope in the block chain bear is a stronger fund after futures: the Bitcoin ETF, knowing that the ETF is the investment instrument that the United States has moved after 80 years of high net worth.
目前，美国ETF产品总规模达到了3.7万亿美元以上，都是法币投资，不像现在的区块链市场，一大部分市值是靠春药USDT撑起来的，真正法币流通市值跟ETF相比，完全是小巫见大巫。
At present, the total size of ETF products in the United States amounts to over $3.7 trillion, with investments in French, unlike the current segment chain market, where a large part of the market is held up by the spring drug USDT, and where the real market value in French circulation is nothing less than the ETF.
比特币ETF的上市，一方面将使区块链市场走向大牛，另一方面，传统金融机构将夺取区块链世界的主权。
The listing of the Bitcoin ETF will, on the one hand, lead the segment chain market to cattle, and, on the other, traditional financial institutions will seize the sovereignty of the block chain world.
「ETF」
24位机构投资人反馈，全部支持比特币ETF上市！百分百的支持率！
Twenty-four institutional investors responded, all in favor of Bitcoin ETF listing! Percentage support!
币总挑选了一位比较有代表性的投资人反馈，翻译如下：
The currency has selected a more representative investor for feedback, translated as follows:
我支持比特币ETF的申请批准。因为这几个月媒体的报道，普通投资者们已经更好地理解了比特币的投资风险。而且，这个比特币ETF的风险，不会由小投资者来承担，这是因为每份ETF的价格高达25个比特币（15万美元左右），是不会吸引非合格投资人的。
I support the Bitcoin ETF’s request for approval. Because of media reports over the past few months, ordinary investors have gained a better understanding of the investment risks of Bitcoin.
这次，如果再次拒绝比特币ETF，意味着这些合格投资者们，要去找非法或者缺少法律约束的交易商来交易比特币了。另外，比特币和区块链技术有潜力从积极方面影响全球经济，所以，不扼杀它们，很重要。
This time, if the Bitcoin ETF is rejected again, it means that these qualified investors are going to trade Bitcoins with illegal or lawless traders. Moreover, Bitcoins and block chain technologies have the potential to influence the global economy positively, so it is important not to stifle them.
「熊市」
Bear City.
随着币市总市值的再度走低和新项目破发率的居高不下，再加上最近这波坑坑洼洼的挖矿交易所热潮再度掏空了市场上还可以活跃的ETH，行情步入2014年-2016年那样大熊市的论调开始流行起来。
With the renewed decline in the general market value of the currency market and the high rate of collapse of new projects, and with the recent evaporation of ETH, which is still active in the market, the rhetoric of the Great Bear began to prevail in 2014-2016.
（近期频繁上线的部分交易所）
(Recently frequented part of the exchange)
东叔是这类看法的主要代表，他把季节更替和比特币的四年减半周期结合起来，一直在社交网络中宣传着自己的币市季节周期论。其主要看法是，比特币减半当年为春天（如2012年、2016年），次年为牛市的夏天（如2013年和2017年），第三年为秋天（2018年即是），第四年为难熬的冬天（2015年和2019年）。
Uncle Dong, who is the main representative of this view, combines seasonal replacements with the four-year four-year cycle of Bitcoin and has been promoting his own currency seasonal cyclical theory on social networks. The main observation is that the halving of Bitcoin was in spring 2012 (e.g. 2016), the next summer in cattle (e.g. 2013 and 2017), the third in autumn (e.g. 2018) and the fourth in difficult winter (e.g. 2015 and 2019).
东叔的论调代表了不少币圈老人的看法。B哥上周在北京参加一次项目线下路演时，分别认识了一位2012年入场和2013年入场的老币民（虽然年纪都比B哥小，但对方入行早）。他俩都认为目前行情还没跌到底部，他们认为的底部是BTC跌到2000-4000美元，因此他们俩一位从1月开始已经处于空仓状态（抛售的节点是徐小平老师的振臂一呼），另一位已经处于暂缓加仓状态（因为他一直在买入，还没卖出过）。
Uncle Dong’s argument represents the view of a lot of seniors in the currency circle. When he was in Beijing last week, he met an old man who had entered in 2012 and 2013 (although he was younger than B, the other party had entered earlier). Both believed that the current deal had not fallen to the bottom, and they thought that BTC had fallen to $2,000 to the bottom, so that one of them had been empty since January (the node for the sale was Mr. Xiaoping’s vibrating arm) and the other was in a state of suspense (because he had been buying and had not sold).
认同由于区块链项目的缺乏落地和2017年市值已经增速过快，币市需要缓缓自己的节奏以等待区块链项目的市值与产生的价值相符，因此2018年下半年大概率为熊市。即使偶尔出现4月底5月初这样的反弹，也只会是很多币友减仓解套的时机而非反转为牛市。
Concurring that the lack of landings for block-chain projects and the fast-growing market value in 2017 require the currency market to slow its pace to wait for the market value of block-chain projects to match the value generated, the second half of 2018 is likely to be a bear market. Even an occasional rebound of this kind at the end of April and early May, it will only be a time for many of its friends to decelerate rather than turn to cattle.
「转机政策」
"Change policy."
虽然B哥没有经历过上波大熊市，但也知道熊市是难熬的，对于牛市时加了杠杆融资炒币结果没有及时止盈反而却被套住的币友更是如此。会有更多币民捱不住而割肉还法币，会有一些矿机厂商转而生产其他器械，甚至会有很多大佬甩出行业，一大波的交易所和币圈媒体的关停更是难免的了。
Although B did not experience the City of Big Bears, he also knows that the City is difficult, especially for his friends, who are trapped instead of putting up the cashier’s money when it comes to leveraging the market. There will be more people who can’t hold back and cut back their meat, some miners will turn to produce other instruments, and even a lot of big guys will dump out of the business, especially when a large wave of exchanges and currency media is shut down.
但也不是没有熊市缩短或提前结束的转机，以下几个方面若出现利好，则可能会加速此次牛熊之间的转换：
However, it is not without the possibility of a shorter or earlier ending of the City of Bears, which may accelerate the shift between cattle and bear if the benefits are positive:
政策面：中美贸易战愈演愈烈，导致全球不少资金跑进币市避险（就跟2013年的塞浦路斯经济危机一样）。尤其在外汇管制、房市流动性受限的我国，全球自由流通的USDT和BTC等数字资产完全可以成为避险人民币汇率持续走低的一个选择。
Policy front: The growing trade war between China and the United States has led to large amounts of global money running into currency markets (as was the case with the Cyprus economic crisis of 2013). Especially in my country, where foreign exchange controls and housing market liquidity are limited, digital assets such as the USDT and BTC, which are freely circulating globally, could well be an option for risk-free renminbi exchange rates to continue to decline.
资金面：继CBOE和CME之后，美国SEC通过了更多方便机构资金进入币市的通道，比如芝加哥期权交易所正在申请的比特币ETF和纳斯达克也上线了数字资产交易所。
Funding: Following CBOE and CME, the United States SEC has adopted additional channels to facilitate the entry of institutional funds into the currency market, such as the Bitcoin ETF and NASDAQ digital asset exchanges, which are being applied for by the Chicago Stock Exchange.
基本面：倘若后续EOS进入良性发展阶段和ZIL、ETH的分片技术进入实用，或者其他高TPS技术的可供使用，为killer Dapp的诞生积累了更多可能，使区块链这个概念从一个曲高和寡的小众口号成为普通人都可以体验到的创新生产关系模式。那么，届时币市的总市值就不会是一两万亿人民币，则至少是几万亿美元了。
Basics: If the follow-up EOS moves into a virtuous development phase and the sub-technology of ZIL, ETH, or the availability of other high TPS technologies, it builds up more possibilities for the birth of killer Dapp, making the concept of block chains a model of innovative productive relations that can be experienced by ordinary people from a small, twisted and weak slogan. Then the total market value of the currency will not be RMB 1.2 trillion, or at least several trillion dollars.
总之，我们既要做好接下来可能会熊近两年的准备（比特币下一次挖矿减半大概在2020年7月），但也可以抱着熊市可能会提前结束的美好期望。至于其他的，则是想尽一切办法和手段在这段大熊市中活下来。
In short, we have to be ready for the next two years (the next time bitcoin digs in half is probably in July 2020), but we also have the good expectation that Bear City will end early. As for the rest, we have to do everything we can to survive in this big bear city.
电科技（www.diankeji.com）是一家专注于全球TMT行业的领先资讯媒体。
Electronics and Technology (www.diankeji.com) is a leading information medium focused on the global TMT industry.
作为今日头条青云计划、百家号百+计划获得者，2019百度数码年度作者、百家号科技领域最具人气作者、2019搜狗科技文化作者、2021百家号季度影响力创作者，曾荣获2013搜狐最佳行业媒体人、2015中国新媒体创业大赛北京赛季军、 2015年度光芒体验大奖、2015中国新媒体创业大赛总决赛季军、2018百度动态年度实力红人等诸多大奖。
As the winner of today’s leading Qingyun Project, the 100+ Project, the digital annual authors of 2019, the 100th most popular in science and technology, the 2019 dog-searchers, the 2021st quarterly influence creators, the best industry media promoter of the 2013 search, the Beijing Quakers of the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition, the 2015 luminous experience award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship final season, the 2018-degree dynamic year Red Man, and many other prizes.
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