前言
Foreword to
2018年9月，笔者曾经写了一篇<<我是如何投资数字货币的>>的文章，介绍了笔者本人在投资数字货币上的一些认知。原文链接：随着时间的推移，后面对原文进行了一些补充和修改，形成1.1版本。原文链接：https://www.chainnode.com/post/335435
In September 2018, I wrote an article < < > how I invested in digital currencies; > and I gave some information on my own perception of investing in digital currencies. Link to original text: over time, some additions and changes to the original text were made to become version 1.1. Link to original text: https://www.chainnode.com/post/335435
这次是基于1.1版本的基础上再次补充内容，作为笔者本人对投资数字货币的进一步总结。本文全文超9000字，阅读时间约需要20分钟。
This is a new addition based on version 1.1, which will serve as a further summary of my investment in digital currencies. The full text of the paper is over 9,000 words and will take about 20 minutes to read.
1. 要善于学习
1. Be good at learning
工欲善其事，必先利其器。在参与或进入某个行业时，我们应该先要了解该行业的基本情况和学习该行业的相关知识，提高自己对该行业的认知，用知识武装自己的头脑。不要在对一个行业完全不了解的情况下，贸然投资该行业，这会大概率造成投资错误，从而导致投资失败。
When we join or enter a business, we should first learn about it and learn about it, raise our awareness about it, and use it as a tool for our minds. Don’t invest in an industry without knowing it at all, which is likely to cause investment mistakes, leading to investment failures.
同样，在投资数字货币前，我们需要对数字货币有所了解，建议先读一下《如何投资数字货币》这本书的第1篇--基础知识篇（1-8章），对什么是数字货币，数字货币有哪些主要的币种，数字货币的一些基本概念（如钱包、私钥、公钥、地址等），如何拥有获得数字货币等这些基础知识有一定的掌握后，才开始进入该投资领域。并且在刚开始的时候，只用很少的资金进行尝试。一边尝试投资数字货币，一边不断总结经验教训，不断积累自己的投资经验和实力。同时，在投资数字货币的过程中，还要不断地学习数字货币知识和日新月异的区块链技术。“币圈一日，人间一年”。数字货币这个领域发展和变化是非常快速的，只有保持不断学习，你才能跟上数字货币的时势发展。
Similarly, before investing in digital money, we need to have an understanding of digital currency, and it is suggested that we begin with the first part of the book How to invest in digital currency – the basics (chapters 1 to 8), what is digital currency, what are the main currencies of digital money, some basic concepts of digital currency (such as wallets, private keys, public keys, addresses, etc.), how to acquire basic knowledge of digital money, etc., before we get into the field.
2. 集思广益，同时要有自己的判断
2. Brainstorming, while at the same time having its own judgement
除了自学以外，还需要增加自己对数字货币认知的广阔度，可以多关注数字货币的币圈各大媒体，如巴比特。无论你是数字货币的初学者，还是资深的老韭菜，巴比特上都有适合你看的文章，包括各类入门教程，各类币种介绍，以及各个详尽的项目分析，基本上覆盖了各种的阅读需求。
In addition to self-learning, there is a need to increase the breadth of their knowledge of digital money, focusing more on the major media outlets of digital money, such as Babbitt. Whether you are a beginner of digital money or a senior stubble, Babbit has articles suitable for you, including various introductions, various currency presentations, and detailed project analyses, covering a wide range of reading needs.
除了从外部接收知识以外，更重要的是要有自己的分析和判断。别人的文章可以作为自己参考的依据，但不能人云亦云，盲目相信别人的观点，哪怕一些币圈大佬的言论。要知道，再厉害的人，对未来的判断也不是百分之一百准确的。大部分的时候，有资深阅历和优秀分析能力的人的确会比一般人看得更远，分析结果会更客观准确。但有时候，他们也会有失手的可能。若是能在别人分析的基础上，加上自己的思考和判断，不但操作起来会更有把握，目标会更明确，而且也有利于个人能力的提高。
In addition to receiving knowledge from outside, it is more important to have its own analysis and judgment. Others’ articles can be used as a basis for their own reference, but not for their own consideration, but for their blind belief in other people’s views, even in the words of some big money circles. You know, the judgment of the future is not 100% accurate. Most of the time, people with high-level experience and excellent analytical skills do look further ahead and the results are more objective and accurate.
3. 人们对项目的共识程度
3. Level of consensus on the project
一个区块链项目是否能成功，我认为至少有3个因素很重要：
The success of a block chain project is, in my view, important in at least three factors:
a) 共识度
(a) Level of consensus
b) 应用前景和商业模式
b) Application prospects and business models
c) 技术
(c) Technology
共识度，也就是人们对项目的接受和认可程度。一个项目如果不能被人们接受和认可，用户数量就很难发展起来，项目就难以推广。单有共识度不够，如果没有雄厚的技术支撑或技术创新，这个项目很难去帮助人们去解决实际问题。除了要有共识度和技术，项目还需要有可执行的商业模式，能解决现实中的问题或人们生活中的痛点，有真实的落地应用，并能实现项目的持续盈利，为项目的不断发展和推进提供动力。
In addition to consensus and technology, the project needs an implementable business model that addresses real-life problems or pains in people’s lives, allows real-life applications and provides incentives for the project to evolve and move forward.
不少进入币圈的人都可能会想到这么一个问题，既然比特币的代码是公开的，为什么我就不能稍微修改一下比特币的参数或改进一下代码，自己发行另一个“比特币”呢？没错，你确实能发行自己的“比特币”，但这个问题的本质在于，你自己发行的“比特币”究竟能获得多大的共识呢，也就是能获得多少人的认可呢。如果只能获得少数人的认可，意味着你自己发行的“比特币”只能在这少数人的范围内使用，无法大范围流通，这样的“比特币”也就没有什么价值了。而比特币作为数字货币的鼻祖，占有首发优势，在一开始没有其它数字货币和它竞争时，自然就更容易被人们认可和接受。这就像远古时代，还没有法定货币的时候，人们一开始是以物易物的方式来换取自己需要的东西。由于没有一个中间的介质作为衡量标准，有些物品又难以分割，导致以物易物的方式很不方便。于是后来人们就会以一些好看珍贵的贝壳或石头作为中间的介质来买卖物品，也就是货币的雏形。这些好看珍贵的贝壳或石头，一方面数量上不会泛滥；另一方面，对于当时的生产技术来说，它们也是不容易仿制和生产的。在当时找不到更好的替代品之前，这些好看珍贵的贝壳或石头就是最好的选择，因而容易受到人们的认可和接受，从而形成共识。
A lot of people entering the currency circle may think of a problem like that. If the bitcoin code is open, why can't I just slightly modify the bitcoin parameters or improve the code, and issue another bitcoin yourself? Yes, you can issue your own bitcoin, but the essence of the problem is that it is more likely to be accepted and accepted when there are no other digital money and it competes. Like in ancient times, when there is no legal currency, people start to buy what they need in the form of easy goods. In the absence of an intermediate medium that can only be used on a large scale, such a bitcoin is of little value.
对于共识程度这一点，我们要给予足够的关注。对该数字货币的共识程度，可以从下面几个方面来分析：
We need to pay enough attention to this degree of consensus. The degree of consensus on the digital currency can be analysed in the following ways:
a) 人们对该数字货币的信仰。
(a) The belief of the people in that digital currency.
b) 人们对该数字货币的应用前景的看法。
(b) Views on the prospects for the application of the digital currency.
c) 该数字货币的诞生时间的长短
(c) The time of birth of the digital currency
d) 人们对该数字货币的接受认可程度和使用人群范围
(d) Level of acceptance and use of the digital currency by the population
e) 该数字货币的流通程度，世界各国对该数字货币的态度，金融机构对该数字货币的接纳态度
e) The degree of circulation of the digital currency, the attitude of the countries of the world towards the digital currency and the attitude of financial institutions towards the acceptance of the digital currency
以上几点其实是互相渗透，相互影响的，并不是独立割裂的。
These points are, in fact, permeating and influencing each other, and are not separated from each other.
我们以比特币BTC和比特币现金BCH为例来说明一下。我们知道，比特币BTC和比特币现金BCH总量都是2100万个，它们的价格和市值却是相差甚远。BTC市值1200亿美元，BCH市值120亿美元，相差了10倍。究其原因，主要是：
Let's take the example of Bitcoin BTC and Bitcoin's cash BCH. We know that Bitcoin BTC and Bitcoin's total cash BCH is 21 million, and their prices and market values are very different. BTC's market value is $12 billion, and BCH's value is $12 billion, which is 10 times different.
BTC：2009年诞生，到现在约11年。比特币是加密货币历史上的第一个突破，运用了密码学、共识机制、点对点网络。作为第一个数字货币，并经过11年的发展，已经获得全世界范围内最多的人的认可和使用。
BTC: Born in 2009, about 11 years ago. Bitcoin was the first breakthrough in the history of cryptography, consensus mechanisms, point-to-point networks. As the first digital currency, and after 11 years of development, it has been recognized and used by the largest number of people in the world.
BCH：2017年诞生，到现在约1年。BCH作为BTC的分叉币，在技术上对BTC进行了改进(比如：区块容量提升。比特现金将区块容量提升至8MB,而比特币的区块容量为1MB。而根据BitcoinABC的公告，比特现金区块容量将调整至32MB。提升区块容量之后，显然可以使得BCH在特定时间内记录更多的交易)，虽然技术上更先进，但终究相对BTC来说，还是年轻。人们对它的认可和接受需要一个过程。
BCH: Born in 2017, about a year ago. BCH, as a BTC forklift, has technically improved BTC (e.g. block capacity increases. Bit cash raises block capacity to 8MB, while Bitcoin's block capacity is 1MB. And, according to Bitcoin ABC's announcement, bit cash block capacity will be adjusted to 32MB.
另外，2018年12月，比特币期货正式推出。这意味着比特币已经获得了部分金融机构的认可，并让其流通性给予了便利。
In addition, in December 2018, Bitcoin futures were officially introduced. This means that Bitcoin has been recognized by some financial institutions and has facilitated its circulation.
尽管技术上BCH比BTC更先进，但BTC是数字货币的鼻祖，具有先发优势，处于龙头地位不可替代，经营时间更长，传播范围更广，造成大家对BTC和BCH达成的共识程度不同，从而导致人们对BTC和BCH认可的价格不同。
Although technically BCH is more advanced than BTC, BTC is the nominee of a digital currency, has the pre-eminence, has the status of a leader, has a longer operating time and has a wider reach, resulting in different levels of consensus on BTC and BCH, resulting in different prices recognized by BTC and BCH.
4 看应用前景和商业模式
4 See application prospects and business models
一个数字货币是否有价值，其中一个重要的方面，是看其是否有好的应用前景和商业模式以及人们对该数字货币是否有较高的共识程度。其中，商业模式是笔者比较看重的。商业模式，包含了项目如何落地，如何盈利等一系列项目运作问题。没有完善的盈利途径，一个再好的项目也是无法维持不下去的。一个项目只有形成经济闭环，除了有项目支出，也有项目收入而且能有盈余，这个项目才能持续向前发展。
One important aspect of the value of a digital currency is to see whether it has good application prospects and business models, and whether there is a high degree of consensus on the digital currency. Among them, the business model is more important to me. The business model encompasses a range of operational issues, such as how the project is landed and how it is profitable.
一个数字货币对应的应用前景，是否是热门和有前途(如是否是针对行业内的热切需求或存在问题，是否是能解决人们生活工作上的痛点。对于同一个痛点，是否已经存在着解决该痛点的一个或多个的落地应用；如果有，它们的市场地位分别是怎样)，对数字货币的价值影响是十分重要的。当今的一些热门应用，如人工智能、 物联网、大数据、云计算等。试想一下，如果一个数字货币是用于一个冷门应用，关注者和使用者都不会太多，其价值又能如何体现呢。一个好的数字货币，一般都有好的落地应用。另外，越容易落地的区块链应用，其数字货币越容易被认可，价值也容易形成，如比特币(价值存储)、狗狗币(打赏小费文化)。相反，越复杂的，难于实现的，或实现周期很长的，价值形成的难度就越大，相对的风险也越高。再次，我们要注意到一点，每个细分领域，头部效应是非常明显的。很多时候，同一领域的第一名和第二名差距会比较大，更不用说排名第三或更后的了。对于处于龙头地位的领头羊，更值得我们去关注和投资。举个例子，例如无人机领域，大家提起无人机很多时候就会联想到大疆这个无人机企业，而对于无人机领域的老二老三们，可能很多人都不一定知道是哪个企业，关注度是远远不及老大的高。所以如果有多个数字货币的应用前景是类似，一般选居于龙头地位的数字货币。
The value of a digital currency is important. Some of today’s popular applications, such as artificial intelligence, networking, big data, cloud computing, etc., are hot. If a digital currency is used for a cold-door application, neither interested nor user, and if so, how can its value be expressed. A good digital currency, usually well-placed, has one or more applications; if so, the market position is different, and the value of the digital currency is very important.
对于数字货币的应用前景，我个人最看好的金融领域方面的应用。我们看看比特币，比特币就是为了对抗金融危机所带来的货币超发而诞生的，并实现了价值存储和转移的功能。另外一个例子就是瑞波币，也是金融领域方面的应用。而对于以太坊，它也有金融领域方面的一个重要应用，就是Defi(Decentralized Finance，去中心化金融)。当然，其它领域的数字货币并不是不好，而是金融应用领域方面的数字货币的涨幅是相对比较大的。
Another example is Riboche, which is also an application in the area of finance. For Ether, it also has an important application in the area of finance, namely Defi. Of course, other areas of digital currency are not bad, but rather relatively large increases in digital money in the area of financial applications.
5. 看采用的技术和共识算法
5. Look at the technology and consensus algorithms used
不同的数字货币，背后所采用的技术和共识算法也不尽相同。共识算法越简单，越容易让人明白，越容易获得人们的共识。例如比特币，采用的是pow共识算法，虽然在一定程度上浪费了电力，但却让人们易于理解和乐于接受，共识也容易达成，其高安全性也是有目共睹！所谓大道至简，也是有其一定的道理。当然，也不是复杂的算法就不好，只是让人们理解和接受的成本会更高。但复杂的算法也有其有用的地方。例如比特币，虽然算法简单，但其较长的交易确认时间(约10分钟产生一个区块，交易需要经过6个区块才能完全确认，即至少1小时)，使其应用范围比较狭小，不适合应用用于现实生活中的快速支付。相反，一些共识算法相对复杂，但交易效率却更高。如比特股，使用DPOS共识算法，交易确认时间就大大缩短(在部署11个见证人的情况下，每3秒产生一个区块，经过7个区块即可确认交易，也就是不到1分钟就能完全确认)。EOS在比特股的基础上，使用DPOS和拜占庭容错算法，使得出块的速度提升至0.5秒。目前，应用更前沿的区块链技术DAG(Directed Acyclic Graph，有向无环图)的公链也出来了，交易速度会更加快。
Different digital currencies have different technical and consensus algorithms. The simpler the consensus algorithms are, the easier to understand, the easier to gain common understanding. For example, Bitcoin uses the pow consensus algorithm, which, although wasted to some extent, is easy to understand and accept, and the greater security is easy to achieve.
不同的数字货币，因其应用不同，所采用的技术也不一定相同。但其技术是否先进，算法是否容易让人接受，我们可以把它作为判断一个数字货币是否有前景和价值的依据之一。
Different digital currencies, because of their different applications, do not necessarily use the same technology. But whether their technology is advanced and their algorithms are easy to accept, we can use it as a basis for judging whether a digital currency is promising and valuable.
目前来说，共识算法主要有以下几类
At present, consensus algorithms are mainly of the following categories:
a) POW，工作量证明，去中心化程度最高，安全性和公平性最好，但效率低，能耗高
(a) Pow, the workload proves that the most centralized, safe and fair, but inefficient and energy-intensive
b) POS，权益证明，去中心化程度低于POW
(b) POS, certificate of entitlement, decentralisation below Pow
c) DPOS，委托权益证明，出块节点相对集中，中心化程度相对较高
(c) DPOS, commissioning certificate, relative concentration of point out and relatively high degree of centralization
d) Ripple共识算法
d) Ripple Consensus Algorithm
e) DAG，有向无环图
(e) DAG, with no ring map
还有其它的一些共识算法，就不一一列举了。
There are other consensus algorithms that are not always enumerated.
6. 看白皮书和开发计划
6. Read the White Paper and the Development Plan
一个靠谱的项目，一般都有它自己明确的发展方向和实现目标，以及应用前景。比如这个项目要做什么，解决什么问题，分几个阶段实现，什么时候做到什么程度，这些都应该明确地展现在该项目的白皮书和开发计划书中。如果一个项目的白皮书和开发计划书只是泛泛而谈，甚至是东凑西凑从其它项目的白皮书的内容拼凑而来的。这时候，应该对该项目提起警惕，提防该项目是否是空气项目，它发行的数字货币是否是空气币，是否只是为了骗钱割韭菜。
If a project’s white paper and development plan are merely general in content, or even a collection of white papers from other projects. At this point, caution should be exercised as to whether the project is an air project, whether or not the digital currency it issues is an air currency, and whether it is just a cheap cut.
一个靠谱的项目，还要有一个靠谱的盈利模式。我们要分析它的盈利模式是否可行，是否可持续。在项目发展的初期，项目不一定要马上盈利。但随着项目的深入发展，没有可行持续的盈利模式，在没有外部资金补充的情况下，项目很可能会因为缺乏资金来源而无以为继，导致项目夭折。所以，从中长期看，可行持续的盈利模式，对于一个项目来说，必不可少。
But as the project evolves further, there is no viable and sustainable profit model, and without external replenishment, projects are likely to fail due to lack of financial resources. So, in the medium and long term, viable and sustainable profitability models are essential to a project.
对于项目的开发进度，如果该项目是代码开源的，可以到上传代码的网站上看看代码的更新情况，留意一下代码的更新速度和提交代码的人员数目，可以在一定程度上验证项目是否在开发。如果你是一个程序员，又能看懂里面的代码，那就更容易了解项目的进展了。比如知名的EOS项目，它就是一个代码开源项目。如果该项目代码不开源，作为一个负责任的开发团队，至少也要定期对外发布项目开发进度报告，让大家了解开发进度。如果连这个都没有，就真的要小心了。不少知名的项目都会在git.com这个网站上开源代码。如：
If the project is open-sourced, the project can be updated on the uploading site, keeping in mind the speed with which the code is updated and the number of people who submit the code, it can be verified to some extent. If you're a programmer and you can read the code inside, it's easier to understand the project's progress. For example, a famous EOS project is a code open-source project. If the project code does not open and, as a responsible development team, at least, a regular external progress report on the development of the project is published. If you don't even have it, you really need to be careful. A number of well-known projects will open their source code on the git.com site.
当然，也有一些项目大部分的代码是抄袭其它项目的，只是做了一些无关紧要的修改，这个是需要注意的。另外，有些项目开发进度报告也只是不断地写一些忽悠的东西来搪塞投资者，这也是需要注意的。
And, of course, there are some projects whose codes are largely copying other projects, with minor modifications that need to be noticed. Also, some of the project development progress reports are just constantly writing up things to block investors, and that is what needs to be noticed.
7. 看项目团队和社区
7. Look at the project team and the community
一个好的项目，需要一个强大的团队来实现和推广。特别是对于区块链这种新兴的技术的相关项目，有开发实力的技术人员对于团队而言，作用是非常重要的。没有开发实力的团队，对于吹得再好的项目，也无法实现。一般项目白皮书上都会对项目团队有所介绍。我们需要了解项目团队的组成，对他们的成员情况作基本的调查确认，确认这些成员是否真实存在，是否具备相关的资质和实力，是否真正参加了该项目的开发或推广，我们对这些都要一一辩清真伪。不要盲目相信项目白皮书上的内容。特别是对于一些有名人或币圈大佬站台的项目，我们需要了解清楚他们在项目中的工作和作用。不要以为有名人或币圈大佬站台的项目，就一定会成功。有时候，他们纯粹就是作为一个项目顾问挂个名而已，并没有实质参与到项目中去。对此，我们需要鉴别对待。有好的团队项目不一定会成功，没有好的团队项目一定不会成功。
We need to understand the composition of the project team, make a basic survey of their membership, confirm whether these members are real, possess relevant qualifications and strengths, and actually participate in the development or promotion of the project. We need to be clear about this. Don't blindly believe in the content of the project's white paper. For some projects with famous people or big money circles, we need to understand their work and role in the project.
除了项目团队，项目的社区也非常重要。如果一个项目后面有一个强大和活跃的社区，那么对于该项目的推广和去中心化，以及人们对该项目对应的数字货币的共识程度，是很有帮助的。因为除了项目团队，社区里的人也可以参与项目的开发和推广，这样该项目的推动力就更大了。
In addition to the project team, the project’s community is very important. If there is a strong and active community behind a project, the project’s replication and decentralization, as well as the degree of consensus on the project’s digital currency, are helpful.
8. 看发行量和发行价，关注总市值
8. Focus on total market value by volume and value of issuance
判断一个数字货币的价格是否合理，除了要看该数字货币的价格以外，也要看它的发行数量和它的总市值。
The reasonableness of the price of a digital currency depends, in addition to the price of that digital currency, on the volume of its issuance and its total market value.
对于发行数量，需要了解它的总发行数量是多少，总数量是否是固定的。对于有些数字货币，总数量是固定的，有些却不是固定的。如比特币总量是2100万个，永不增发。但EOS总发行数量不是固定的。对于总发行数量不是固定的数字货币，还需要了解它的增发速度。
For the number of issuances, it is necessary to know whether their total number is fixed. For some digital currencies, the total number is fixed, while others are not. For example, the total number of bitcoins is 21 million, never increasing. But the total number of EOS issuances is not fixed.
中国有句话：物以稀为贵。对于相同价格的数字货币而言，数量越多，意味着总市值越大，需要支撑其价值的市场的资金需求就越大，其价格上涨的难度就越高。特别是对于一些应用前景不是非常好的数字货币而言，如果它的发行数量非常庞大，哪怕它的发行价格很低，从而导致它的总体市值比较高的情况，我们就要格外小心，不要以为它价格便宜就认为值得投资，关键还要看它的总市值。
The larger the number of digital currencies at the same price, the greater the total market value, the greater the demand for money in the market that needs to support its value, and the more difficult it is to increase prices. Especially for some digital currencies whose application prospects are not very good, if they are issued in very large quantities, even if their distribution prices are very low, and therefore their overall market value is higher, we need to be more careful not to think that their prices are cheap enough to justify investment, but also to look at their total market value.
在数字货币市场上，一般而言，如果一个数字货币的实际总市值越大，说明它的共识程度和人们对它的接受认可程度就越高，它获得的资金支持也就越大。因为只有广泛获得人们认可和接受的数字货币，才会有多的人购买和持有，从而获得更多的资金支持。看看总市值排名第一的比特币BTC，就很容易理解其中的道理了。
In the digital currency market, the greater the real total market value of a digital currency, the greater the degree of consensus and acceptance of it, the greater the financial support it receives. Because only a widely accepted and accepted digital currency will allow more people to buy and hold it, thereby gaining more financial support.
这里有一个可以查数字货币市场上总市值排名的网站： https://coinmarketcap.com/
Here's a site where the total market value of the digital money market can be ranked: https://coinmarkcap.com/
大家可以上去看看。下图是2018年9月中旬的总市值排名前10的数字货币
You can look up. The figure below is the top 10 digital currencies in mid-September 2018.
从另外一个角度来看，了解过经济学的人都会知道这么一个基本原理：价格是围绕价值上下波动的，是价值规律的表现形式。也就是说，从短期看，供求关系会影响价格，造成价格的波动；但从长期看，价值决定价格，价格最终会回归价值。在股市里，一个企业的好坏，有2个比较重要的指标：市净率和市盈率。市净率反映了一个企业的净资产，市盈率反映了一个企业的盈利能力。这2个指标对一个企业的整体估值是至关重要。当然，对一个企业的估值，涉及很多方面，如现金流，用户数量，应用领域，行业地位等。在这里，笔者只是想强调，如果一个上市企业的股价，如果它的估值是不错的话，其股价一般也是围绕其价值上下波动，其价值最终会反映在合理的股价上面。回到数字货币市场，一个数字货币的价格，应该也是围绕其价值上下波动。如果一个数字货币的价格过高，导致整体市值(数字货币的价格*数字货币的数量)超出其整体合理估值，该数字货币的价格最终会出现调整，直到整体市值和整体估值相当。从2017年火爆的ICO，再到2019年火热的IEO，不少数字货币项目的募集价格都出现明显的偏高，开盘时甚至可能会被人为地拉高好几倍甚至十来二十倍。但当后面价值回归时，价格就会迅速回落，最终一地鸡毛，打回原形。所以，当我们想参与一个数字货币项目的募集时，要先冷静地算一下该数字货币的当前市值，再评估一下该数字货币的整体估值(从应用前景，用户群体，人们的共识程度，对标的标的等多维度进行估值)。如果当前市值远高于整体估值，就要谨慎参与了。除非你保证你的动作够快，肯定不是接最后一捧的接盘侠，一定能赚一把就能全身而退。对于一些营销做得很好但实际上没有什么技术力量或落地应用的项目，也是要认真辨别，千万不要迷恋于吹得捧上天的项目白皮书。要知道，说和做，很多时候是两回事。
From another perspective, those who know economics are aware of a fundamental principle: that prices fluctuate around the value, and are the expression of the value pattern. That is, in the short term, supply-and-demand relationships affect prices and cause price fluctuations; in the long term, however, values determine prices and prices eventually return to value. In the stock market, there are two more important indicators: the net market rate and the market rate. If the net assets of an enterprise fluctuate, the market ratio reflects the profitability of an enterprise. These two indicators are essential for the overall valuation of an enterprise.
关于总市值的计算，存在2种计算方法：
With regard to the calculation of the total market value, there are two methods of calculation:
a) 按照总的发行量来计算，即：总市值=当前币价*总发行量
a) Based on total circulation, i.e. total market value = total issuance at current currency *
b) 按照当前流通量来计算，即：总市值=当前币价*当前流通量
(b) Based on current circulation, i.e. total market value = current currency * current circulation
以比特币为例，比特币的总发行量为2100万个，当前流通量约1800万个(即已经被挖出来被释放的数量)，约为
In the case of bitcoin, for example, the total circulation of bitcoin is 21 million and the current circulation is about 18 million (i.e., the number that has been excavated and released), approximately
以第1种计算，比特币的总市值=单个比特币价格 * 2100万
Total market value of Bitcoins = individual Bitcoins prices * 21 million
以第2种计算，比特币的总市值=单个比特币价格 * 1800万
Total market value of bitcoins = individual bitcoins *18 million in category 2
笔者个人而言，更喜欢用第1种计算方法来计算一个币种总市值。因为没流通的部分也是实实在在存在的部分，只是不能交易而已，所以不应该忽略掉。
Personally, I prefer the first calculation to calculate the total market value of a currency. Because the non-negotiable part is also a real part of the market, it cannot be traded, so it should not be overlooked.
当一个币还没有交易价格时，可以按该币种所在的项目或公司，按同一应用领域的对标公司来估值。比如，你刚成立了一间电商公司，可以思考电商领域方面的对标公司，如淘宝，京东等，按照它们在不同的规模和发展阶段的不同时期的公司估值来做参考。我们可以回头看一看，对于当初刚成立时的淘宝，没有什么用户使用，也没有多少人看懂其商业模式时，估值当然不会很高。但后面随着业务的改进和发展，以及用户数量的增加，公司估值就会大大提升。同一个公司，不同的发展阶段，公司的估值是差异巨大的。相比于现在市值4.10万亿(更新时间：2020/06/01)港元的腾讯，当年的腾讯差点就被马化腾以100万人民币卖掉了，有兴趣的同学可以看看这篇文章
When a currency has not yet been traded, it can be valued on the basis of the item or company in which it is located, and on the basis of the same appliance. For example, you have just set up an electric company that can think about companies in the field of electricity, such as Bao, Kyoutung, and so on, using their corporate valuations at different times in their different sizes and stages of development. We can look back on the fact that there are few users and few people who understand their business models. But the value of the company will increase considerably as business improves and develops and the number of users increases.
所以对于有潜力的币种，就需要考验你的眼力，是否能成为币圈的伯乐了。如果能在其爆发之前持有有潜力的币种，后面的收益就很可能不是简单的几倍十倍的收益了。像比特币，以太坊就是这样的例子。
So, for potential currencies, you need to test your eyes to become the circle of money. If you can hold potential currencies before they explode, then the gains that follow are probably not a few times as many as ten. As in Bitcoin, for example, in the Tails.
由于数字货币目前还没有广泛普及，总市值和传统的巨头公司比起来还相差很远，因而容易被庄家控盘操控币价，哪怕是市值最大的比特币，也一样存在着庄家。因此，即使一个币已经有交易价格，其交易价格价格也不一定能反映其真实的价值。对于我们普通投资者，需要评估一下该数字货币所在的项目或公司的合理估值，再根据该数字货币的当前总市值，来判断一下币价是否合理。如果币价偏高太多，可以择机卖出，或至少先把本钱部分的币卖出套现，保住本金。数字货币交易市场的风险比传统股票市场高多了，一下子短期暴涨暴跌50%以上也是时有发生，特别是对于那些小盘子的山寨币。如果我们能先保住本金，后面即使遇到暴跌也会定好多。
As the digital currency is not widely available, the total market value and the traditional giants are far apart from each other, making them easy to manipulate the currency price, even if it is the biggest bitcoin in the market. Thus, even if a currency already has a transaction price, the price of its transaction price does not necessarily reflect its true value. For our ordinary investors, there is a need to evaluate the reasonable valuation of the project or company in which the digital currency is located, and to judge whether it is reasonable on the basis of the current total market value of the digital currency.
9. 看技术分析指标
9. Look at the indicators of technical analysis
除了选择一个好的数字货币进行投资以外，低价买入，高价卖出，也是盈利的关键。通过一些技术分析指标，如成交量，均线，K线和MACD等技术分析指标，对于判断数字货币价格走势和未来的趋势，很有帮助，特别是对于一些短期的投资行为。世界上没有一种绝对准确的技术指标，技术指标提供给你的是一种概率，是一种未来可能出现的情况，我们只能作为参考，用于提高我们判断的准确性。无论是在股市还是币圈，虽然这些技术指标各有各的长处和适用情况，而且也有失灵的时候，但它们会让你操作起来更有把握。由于一个人的精力是有限的，所以笔者建议，技术分析指标只选2到4个就够了，如成交量，日均线，K线和MACD，KDJ。太多了反而会眼花缭乱，无暇顾及，从而扰乱了自己的思路。
In addition to the choice of a good digital currency for investment, low-price purchases and high-price sales are key to profitability. Technical indicators for analysis, such as stock markets and currency circles, are useful for judging trends in the price of digital money and future trends, especially for short-term investment behaviour. There is no absolute technical indicator, and a technical indicator is available to you as a probability, and we can only use it as a reference to improve the accuracy of our judgements. In stock markets and currency circles, although these technical indicators have their advantages and their application, and when they fail, they can make you operate with greater certainty. Given the limited energy of a person, I suggest that just two or four of the indicators for technical analysis are sufficient, e.g. transactions, average daily lines, Klines and MACDs, KDJ.
同时，我们需要注意的是，有些中心化的交易所，有些数据是可以通过交易所内部进行造假的，从而使技术指标失真，失去了它本身的参考价值。在这种情况下，就没必要再去参考技术指标了。前面也提到，数字货币的市值目前还不是很大，容易被庄家操控，通过左右手左右手互倒的方式构造虚假交易，这样也是会造成技术指标失真。因此，在数字货币交易市场，不用太过迷恋技术面分析。
At the same time, we need to note that some centralized exchanges, some of which can be faked through the exchange’s internal data, make technical indicators false and lose their own reference value. In this case, it is no longer necessary to refer to technical indicators.
总的来说，技术分析指标并不是百试失灵的，不同的人也喜欢使用不同的技术分析指标。不管怎样，通过技术分析指标，可以增加我们获得买卖胜算的把握，为我们的买入卖出提供依据。大家有空也可以看看《如何投资数字货币》的第2篇--交易投资篇，作进一步的了解。
In general, the indicators for technical analysis are not flawed, and different people prefer to use different indicators for technical analysis. In any case, the indicators for technical analysis can increase our chances of success and provide a basis for our buying and selling.
从笔者的分析偏好来说，是基本面分析为主，技术面分析为辅(主要是成交量，日均线，K线和MACD)。基本面不好的数字货币，即使技术面再好，往往只能短炒一波就完了。
As far as I am concerned, the basic analysis is largely based, supported by technical analysis (mainly transactional, solar, K-line and MACD). Poor basic digital currencies, even if they are better, tend to be short-lived.
10. 数字货币操作策略
10. Digital currency operations strategy
正如《如何投资数字货币》第3篇--投资理念篇 的第6章标题：鸡蛋不能放在一个篮子，我们不应该用全部投资的钱只买入一种数字货币，应该学会分散投资。如果我们把全部投资的钱都只买入一种数字货币，风险是极其巨大的。一旦该数字货币出现暴跌或崩盘，我们就可能血本无归了。当然，笔者也不建议太过分散地投资多种数字货币，因为一个人的时间和精力有限，投资数字货币的种类过多，必然无暇顾及，顾此失彼。笔者建议，关注2到5个币种，对一般人而言就已经足够了。
As in the sixth title of “How to invest in digital money” in book 3, “The concept of investment”: eggs cannot be placed in a basket, we should not buy only one digital currency with all the money invested, and we should learn to diversify. If we buy all the money invested in only one digital currency, the risk is enormous.
另外，从投资周期来看，笔者不建议频繁地买入卖出。操作太频繁，很容易乱了阵脚，扰乱自己的投资计划。可以一部分资金作长期投资，买入自己比较看好的数字货币并长期持有，比如笔者就比较看好比特币的长期投资价值，因为比特币总量是固定的，共识范围广，而且每隔四年产量减半。从抵御货币通胀的角度来说，是一个很好的投资标的(个人意见，不作为投资依据)。另一部分资金作短期投资，投资一些比较活跃的数字货币。一种比较保守的短期投资做法是，当盈利时，先把本钱部分进行获利止盈，不要太过贪心。这样后面的操作就能更加轻松，即使后面剩余的投资亏损了，甚至全部亏掉了，本金还在，总体没有亏损。
In addition, in terms of the investment cycle, I do not propose to buy and sell frequently. Too often, it is easy to mess up its own investment plans. Part of the money can be invested in the long term, buying into its preferred digital currency and holding it for a long time. For example, I prefer Bitcoin’s long-term investment value, because the amount of bitcoins is fixed, the consensus is broad, and production is reduced by half every four years. In terms of anti-currency inflation, it is a good investment target (personal opinion, not a basis for investment).
另外需要注意的是，即使你看好一种数字货币，也要尽量避免在高位买入该数字货币，这样才能更好地获利。比较好的做法是右侧交易，即币价在谷底回升确认后再买入。当然这个需要很大的耐心和技巧，需要不断提高个人的能力和积累经验才能做得到。至于如何从技术分析的角度去判断谷底，笔者以前看过的黎航编写的<<股市操练大全>>里有比较详尽的介绍，大家可以借鉴一下。
It is also important to note that even if you look at a digital currency, the best way to be profitable is to avoid buying it in high places. The best way to do that is to buy it on the right, that is, to buy it when the price is confirmed at the bottom of the valley. Of course, it takes a lot of patience and skill. It requires constantly increasing individual capabilities and accumulated experience in order to be able to do it. As to how the bottom of the valley can be judged from the point of view of technical analysis < & lt; stock market drills & gt; & gt; there is a more detailed presentation that you can draw on.
买卖数字货币，切忌追涨杀跌。同时，正所谓“别人贪婪时我恐惧，别人恐惧时我贪婪”，当市场热度过高的时候，要保持清醒和冷静，适当减仓甚至离场，做到落袋为安，合理止盈，不要盲目持币。这样做是为了规避风险，预防币价的大幅度回撤。因为市场上盈利的人毕竟占少数，当大量的人都涌进这个市场时，会形成阶段性的超买，导致币价的非理性上涨。而这种超买是不可持续的，当达到一定程度时，资金供应跟不上需求时，就会形成资金链断裂，盈利的一方为了止盈，会迅速抛售手头上持有的数字货币，导致币价的快速回落甚至暴跌。当然，如果你是一个长期投资者并坚定看好某个币种，从短期的角度来说，如果不在乎短期的得失，长期佛系持币也未尝不可，这个视个人的投资偏好和策略而定。
It is also called “I fear when others are greedy, I fear when others are afraid”, and when the market is hot, stay sober and calm, properly reduce and even leave the market, make a reasonable stop to the surplus, and do not lose currency blindly. This is done in order to avoid risk and prevent a sharp fall in currency prices. After all, when the market is profitable, when a large number of people rush into the market, it creates a stage-by-stage overpurchase that leads to an irrational rise in currency prices. This overpurchase is unsustainable, when, to a certain extent, the supply of money is not keeping pace with demand, and the profit side quickly sells the digital money held in its hands to stop it, leading to a rapid fall or even a collapse in currency prices.
对于数字货币的币种配置，个人建议还是尽量关注总市值排名前10的数字货币。个人喜好是：其中，比特币占投资金额的50%左右，以太坊占20-30%，其它前10的数字货币占剩余部分。每个人的情况不尽相同，这个也是视个人的投资偏好和策略而定。
In terms of the currency allocation of the digital currency, the individual suggests that as much attention as possible be paid to the top 10 digital currencies in the overall market value. The individual prefers: of these, bitcoins account for about 50% of the investment, 20-30% in the Pacific, and the rest in the top 10. The situation is different for everyone, depending on the individual’s investment preferences and strategies.
最后，需要特别注意的是，如果没有很大的把握，个人的能力还没达到相应的水准，不要轻易使用杠杆去进行数字货币合约交易，那是相当危险的。一个不慎的操作，就有可能让你倾家荡产，欲哭无泪。即使你有9次合约交易操作对了，可能1次合约交易错了就足以令你资本归零。而且现在的数字货币合约交易所基本上还是中心化的交易所，用户的挂单操作交易所内部的人是一清二楚的，如果合约交易所要作恶，普通散户是很容易被交易所割韭菜。现实中，庄家们有时会通过暴力拉升或打砸现货的方式来造成合约爆仓，收割合约用户。
Finally, special attention needs to be paid to the fact that, without much certainty, individuals’ capabilities are not yet at the same level as they are, and that it is quite dangerous not to use leverage easily to trade in digital money contracts. An unbridled operation could lead to a loss of property and tears.
对于其它的投资理念和操作策略，《如何投资数字货币》第3篇里也有较好的阐述，这里就不累述了。
Other investment concepts and operational strategies are also better articulated in the third issue of How to Invest Digital Currency, which is not exhaustive here.
结束语
Concluding remarks
以上的各种观点和操作策略，是笔者在实际投资操作中的一些体验总结，不一定准确，也不一定适合所有人，毕竟每个人情况各异，操作策略也不尽相同。欢迎大家互相探讨，共同进步！
The above-mentioned ideas and operational strategies are a summary of some of my experiences in actual investment operations, which are not necessarily accurate or appropriate for everyone, after all, each and every one of them has different circumstances and different operational strategies. Welcome to each and every one of you to discuss and advance together!
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My twilight cloud web disk: https://share.weiyun.com/5qT0TvG
如果你觉得这篇文章写得还可以，请帮忙点个赞，谢谢！
If you think this article is okay, please give me a compliment. Thank you.
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Your encouragement, my motivation!
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