我解释一下我为什么买了一点QDII海外债基金

资讯 2024-07-13 阅读:44 评论:0
来源:雪球App,作者: 青春的泥沼,(https://xueqiu.com/1062883669/145481125)最近行情大家也都知道,尤其是前一阵欧美金融机构为了流动性,抛售一切,黄金、比特币这种公认的“避险资产”也暴跌,中国现在来...
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来源:雪球App,作者: 青春的泥沼,(https://xueqiu.com/1062883669/145481125)

最近行情大家也都知道,尤其是前一阵欧美金融机构为了流动性,抛售一切,黄金、比特币这种公认的“避险资产”也暴跌,中国现在来看,当下是疫情影响较小的国家,中国A股、港股和海外美元债券都被抛售。

In recent times, it has become clear to everyone, especially the previous wave of U.S. and U.S. financial institutions that sold everything for liquidity, and the well-known “risk-free assets” of gold, bitcoin, China is now a less affected country, and China's A shares, Hong Kong shares and overseas dollar bonds have been sold.

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Welcome to Focus: Pitching Dog

海外美元债券基金净值一个月跌幅接近20%,以至于有些基金投资者都很无奈:

The net value of overseas United States dollar bond funds fell by almost 20 per cent a month, to the point that some of the fund's investors were helpless:

本来买了债券基金是稳健理财,结果一个月跌了20%,谁也接受不了。

The bond fund, which had been bought, was prudent, and as a result, it fell by 20 per cent a month and no one could accept it.

所以我上周买了两笔,很多人不理解,说我咋买这种“垃圾”品种。

So I bought two last week, and a lot of people don't understand how I buy this kind of junk.

我说一下:

I said:

一、现金流

i. Cash flow

我先从自身说起,抛开自身说别的都很虚。

I'll start with myself and leave myself out of everything else.

我觉得我目前仓位适中,五六成仓位还可以,买了两笔QDII债券基金,不影响我现金流,下周如果没有意外,我还会继续买一些。

I think I'm in the middle of a warehouse, 50 or 60 percent of a warehouse, two QDII bond funds, without affecting my cash flow, and I'll buy some more next week if there's no accident.

我本身很强调现金流,大家也知道我最近让大家抄底时候把握节奏,我没有和很多人一样早早就抄底打光子弹,我从现金流角度来说我觉得我可以接受。

I've been focusing my own attention on cash flows, and I've been told that I've been allowed to keep the pace when you've been doing it, and I haven't done it as early as many people have, and I think I can do it from the point of view of cash flows.

二、总有人是错的

II. Someone's always wrong.

你说同一个企业发的债券,国内五六个点,六七个点,国外就要十六七个点,我是不信啊,关键是现在海外市场,国内企业发行面值为100元的债券,交易价格都在七八十元,折价再算上本身的利息,收益率20%的很多啊。

I don't believe you're talking about the same firm issuing bonds at five or six points, six or seven points in the country, and 16 or seven points abroad.

你说是股票我信,股票因为两地不能互通互转,溢价没法平抑,比如AH溢价长期存在,但是债券有到期日总会兑付啊。

You said it was a stock, because the shares were not interchangeable and the premium was not even, like the AH premium was long-standing, but the bonds were paid on maturity.

同一个企业的债券,两地上市交易,收益率差价这样大,总有至少一个是错的:如果企业经营好,那么债券利率应该很低,如果企业经营不好,那么债券利率应该很高,一方高一方低,总有人是错的,至少有一方是错的。

Bonds of the same enterprise, which are traded on both sides of the market, and the difference in yield is so large that at least one is wrong: if the business is well run, then the bond rate should be low, if the business is not well run, then the bond rate should be high, one side low, one side is always wrong, at least one side is wrong.

我甚至极端认为可能两方都错了:国内因为钱多,流动性充裕,拆借利率很低,所以债券被抢购,国外因为流动性不足,金融机构抛售资产,导致债券没人要。

I think it's even possible that both sides are wrong : domestic bonds are bought because money is good, liquidity is good, interest rates are low, foreign bonds are bought, financial institutions sell their assets, so no one wants them.

三、国内投资者在买入

iii. Domestic investors buying

我上周不是买了两笔海外我第一笔是上周二买,周二其实已经开始反弹了,周三、周四也是涨,有人就说泥沼老师,你是短线高手。。

I didn't buy two of my first overseas purchases last Tuesday, but Tuesday actually started to bounce, and Wednesdays and Thursdays rose, and some say you're a short-line master.

我很无奈,我要是短线高手就怪了。

I can't help it. It's weird if I'm a short-line expert.

不过说实话,美元债确实最近开始反弹了,比如网上有人专门统计一下美元债情况(数据来源:美元债跟踪)。

To be honest, however,

又比如最近基金公司也看到QDII债券的机会了,现在QDII额度这样紧张,基金公司开始发QDII债券基金了。

For example, recently, the Foundation saw a chance to see QDII bonds, and now the QDII line is so tight that the Foundation has started issuing QDII bond funds.

上周大成基金结束了一只QDII债券基金的发行,2亿多资金,认购人数只有858户,人均二三十万。

Last week, the QDII Bond Fund ended the issuance of a QDII bond fund, with more than 200 million funds, with only 858 subscriptions, or 2.3 million per capita.

人均二三十万,你觉得中国普通投资者会人均二三十万买基金?

2,300,000 per person, and you think average Chinese investors will buy 2,300,000 per person?

可以推定里面应该有大资金认购。

It can be assumed that there should be large funds for purchase.

而且大成这个海外债券基金的基金经理至少认购了50万。

And the fund manager of this offshore bond fund has at least half a million.

而中银基金、富国基金下周又要新发QDII债券基金了,都看到中资海外债券是一个机会了。

And the Sino-Sino-Golden Fund, the rich country fund, will be issuing a new QDII bond fund next week. It's an opportunity to see Chinese overseas bonds.

最后我说一下:

Finally, I say:

本文不构成投资意见和建议,只是我最近买了两笔,很多人问为什么?尤其不理解我买一个近一月跌了百分之二十的基金。

This paper does not constitute investment advice and advice, except that I recently bought two, and many people ask why. In particular, I do not understand that I bought a fund that dropped 20 percent in almost a month.

本文我解释一下为什么我买了?请勿据此操作,不过如果没有特殊情况,我还会买一些。

I'll explain in this paper why I bought it? Please don't do it, but if there's no special case, I'll buy some.

我还是坚持一个观点:疫情不稳,行情不稳。

I still maintain the view that the epidemic is unstable and unstable.

疫情在扩散,行情肯定还会反复,各位注意好现金流。

The epidemic is spreading, and it's going to go on and on and on and on and on.

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