比特币暴涨——数字货币与挖矿机的前世今生

保密属性：比特币为加密货币，系统保证交易的安全性。同时比特币交易系统中的每个交易人员的信息仅仅为一些IP地址，并不会泄露任何个人信息，因此成为很多地下黑市的交易货币，各国贪官洗钱的途径。由于此二种需求的持续存在，比特币的暴涨成为必然。

Secrecy attributes: Bitcoin is an encrypted currency, and the system guarantees the security of transactions. At the same time, the information of each trader in the Bitcoin trading system is only a few IP addresses and does not reveal any personal information, making it a currency of many underground black markets and a means of laundering money by corrupt officials.

比特币类似于黄金的投资属性：大部分的比特币交易的目的还是作为收藏品保值，类似于黄金，绝大多数投资者并不会使用比特币作为货币去交易。

Bitcoin is similar to the investment attributes of gold: most of the Bitcoin transactions are still aimed at preserving their value as collections, similar to gold, and the vast majority of investors do not use bitcoin as a currency for trading.

期权出现：2017年12月11日，芝加哥期权交易所开始进行比特币期权交易。与曾经比特币交易缺乏足够丰富、安全的做空途径相比，此次期权的出现意味着安全的做空工具的出现。这种比特币投资衍生品的出现极大的提高了比特币的投资价值。期货价格快速上涨带动全球比特币现货市场价格拉升。

The advent of the options: on December 11, 2017, the Chicago options exchange started trading in bitcoins. Compared to the lack of a sufficiently rich and secure way to do bitcoins, the advent of the options meant that there was a safe, empty tool.

部分国家对比特币的支持：美俄日将比特币视为合法金融工具，加强监管的同时合规化比特币交易。委内瑞拉将比特币视为一种避险货币，在其石油产业高速下滑，通货膨胀率急速升高(现已达741%)的境况下，居民将比特币视为一种更加稳定，可靠货币类型。一些公司甚至已经开始了比特币支付。

Some countries support Bitcoin: the United States and Russia view Bitcoin as a legitimate financial instrument, strengthening regulation while complying with bitcoin transactions. Venezuela sees Bitcoin as a hedge currency, and, in the face of a rapid decline in its oil industry and a sharp rise in inflation (now 741%), residents view Bitcoin as a more stable and reliable type of currency.

ICO的禁止：Initial Coin Offering首次代币公开发行，具有与IPO类似的性质，是全新数字代笔进行募资的手段。但由于高风险，高泡沫，高不确定性，ICO已遭到各国叫停。ICO的禁止虽然对于数字货币的发展是一种阻碍，但是确实对现存数字货币巨头比特币地位的保障，可以说今后由个人发行的数字货币将很难取代比特币的地位。

The ICO’s ban has been suspended by countries because of high risk, high bubbles, and high uncertainty. The ICO’s ban, while an impediment to digital currency development, does guarantee the status of the existing digital currency giant Bitcoin, and it can be said that it will be difficult for individuals to issue digital currency to replace Bitcoin in the future.

比特币的潜在风险

Bitcoin Potential Risk

比特币做空工具的出现，可能导致大量做空订单。 在每一次市场大热的过后，每一种投资工具都会面临一定程度的市场回调，而突然出现的期权交易可能会引导持有者大量做空脱手比特币，导致其大幅下跌。

The emergence of a bitcoin as an empty tool could lead to a large number of empty orders. After every hot market, each investment instrument would face a certain amount of market rewinding, and sudden options transactions could lead its holders to do a lot of empty bitcoins, causing them to fall sharply.

各国对于比特币的不同态度 印度英国等国家对待比特币的态度较为模糊，并不加强监管却也不承认比特币的合法性，将比特币交易视作一种投资者自觉自愿投资并承担风险的行为。也有部分国家对比特币是加强监管甚至禁止的态度，如中国对于比特币交易的禁止， 韩国对于比特币期货交易的禁止等。

The attitude of countries toward bitcoin is more vague, with countries like India and the United Kingdom not strengthening regulation, but not recognizing the legitimacy of bitcoin, and treating bitcoin transactions as an act of conscious voluntary investment and risk-taking by investors. There are also some countries where bitcoin is more regulated or even prohibited, such as China’s ban on bitcoin and South Korea’s ban on bitcoin futures.

庞氏骗局的怀疑 市场上有多方声音怀疑比特币是继MMM之后的又一次庞氏骗局。所谓庞氏骗局，为以发展下线为途径，以下线加入时的“会费”完成上线投资的增值。显然比特币的实际价值与挖矿难度保障了其与庞氏骗局的区别。然而，比特币的暴涨确实存在经济泡沫的可能性，因此也存在瞬间破裂，所有投资全部清空的可能性。同时很多以传销为本质的山寨数字货币，如万福币，云金豆等会导致国家对数字货币的进一步禁止，从而影响比特币前景。

The Ponzi scheme has the suspicion that Bitcoin is a further Ponzi scheme after the MMM. The Ponzi scheme, the & ldquo; dues & & rdquo; the value added of up-to-line investment when the line is added, is a way of developing the bottom line. It is clear that the real value of Bitcoin and the difficulty of mining it secures a difference from the Ponzi scheme.

央行合法数字货币的发行 比特币的部分价值在于其区块链的应用，去中心化的安全性与加密程序的保密性质的确是作为安全可靠货币类型必不可少的特性。而区块链的交易方式也是银行今后发展的一大方向。然而，在把比特币列入全球合法货币，承认比特币合法性并鼓励其作为新型货币之外的另一种可能，便是国家用同样的技术创造各国自己的数字货币，掌控挖矿，确定其与实体货币汇率。正式合法数字货币的出现将会使得比特币退出明面交易的舞台。

In addition to including Bitcoin in the global legal currency, recognizing its legitimacy, and encouraging it as a new currency, it is possible that countries use the same technology to create their own digital currency, control mining, and determine their real currency exchange rates. The emergence of a formal legal digital currency would allow Bitcoin to step out of the face-to-face trading arena.

比特币拆分下的价值稀释： 比特币保值的其中一个因素便是其恒定数量为2100万个，避免了类似于货币加印所导致的通货膨胀。然而值得注意的是，虽然各国会通过增加发行稀释货币价值，但是货币的最小单位是固定的，如美元的最小交易单位为美分。比特币与普通实体货币不同的是，虽然总数固定，但可以无限再分。现在1BTC被分为一亿Satoshi(聪)。而今后每一聪也可被分成大量的更小单位，可以说即便比特币一直在增值，但其最小单位的价值可能反而会减小，其效果也会类似于增加货币发行。

One of the factors in the preservation of Bitcoins is its constant number of 21 million, avoiding inflation similar to that caused by the printing of currencies. It is worth noting, however, that, while countries may increase the value of diluted currencies, the smallest units of currency are fixed, such as the minimum transaction unit of the dollar, which, unlike ordinary entity currencies, can be split indefinitely, although the total is fixed. Now that 1BTC is divided into 100 million Satoshi (hear), it can be said that even if the bitcoins continue to add value, the value of their smallest units may be reduced and their effects similar to those of increased currency issuance.

比特币期货对比特币价格的影响

effect of bitcoin futures price on bitcoin

比特币期货的出现提高了比特币需求，但同时也为做空比特币提供了便利。

The emergence of the Bitcoin futures increased the need for bitcoin, but also facilitated the creation of empty bitcoins.

比特币期货的出现会引起比特币价格的剧烈波动，其走向未知。一方面，期货的出现将引导比特币作为主流投资的形象，会提高其吸引力和需求，增加其价值。另一方面，看跌比特币的投资者会真的利用期权进行做空，从而真的会引起比特币的大幅下跌。另一方面，现今比特币在本质上被视为一种受到圈护的特殊商品，其占据了不适用正常投资规则的独特空间，但比特币正规金融衍生品市场的出现可能会模糊界限，甚至使界限消失。即投资者可能以正常的方式和标准为比特币估值，在比特币投资价值的差异感瓦解后很可能出现崩盘。类似于日本股票衍生品出现对1990年日经崩盘的影响。或是类似于2005年之后，美国抵押贷款的衍生品被退出之后，如ABX指数等使卖空变得容易，导致2008年后市场恐慌的情绪愈演愈烈。

On the one hand, the emergence of futures will lead to the image of bitcoins as mainstream investments, increasing their attractiveness and demand, and increasing their value. On the other hand, investors who look down bitcoins will actually use their options to emptify them, thereby causing bitcoins to fall sharply. On the other hand, now that bitcoins are essentially seen as a special commodity protected by the normal rules of investment, they occupy a unique space that does not apply to normal investment rules, but the emergence of Bitcoins’ formal financial derivatives markets may blur and even disappear.

当然，长远来看，比特币期货的存在是比特币交易稳定的一种保证，如若二者均价格透明且有稳定大量的参与者，显然将会推动比特币的合法化和“文明化”，也会促进各国对比特币相关政策的放宽，因此长期来看比特币货币的出现依旧对于比特币有正面的影响。

Of course, in the long run, the existence of bitcoin futures is a guarantee of the stability of bitcoin transactions, and the appearance of bitcoin in the long run will obviously have a positive impact on bitcoin if both are price-transparent and have a stable large number of participants.

二、挖矿行业的夕阳——以比特币挖矿为例

II, sunset in mining industry >mdash; — take Bitcoin as an example of mining

每一次比特币交易都需要被记录，而第一个记录的节点将会获得比特币的区块奖励，这就是比特币挖矿前线版本的解释。可以把每一次挖矿视作做一道难题，只有最快做出的矿机可以获得奖励。虽然比特币迎来了大幅暴涨，但特币挖矿产业却走入夕阳，其原因有以下几点：

Every Bitcoin transaction needs to be recorded, and the first node will be rewarded by bitcoin, which is the explanation for the bitcoin mining front. Each mining can be viewed as a challenge, and only the fastest-made miner will be rewarded. While bitcoin is on the rise, the Tetco mining industry is in the sunset for a number of reasons:

区块奖励减少：

由于对比特币总数的限制，根据比特币开源软件协议规定，每产生210000个区块，比特币的区块奖励减半。每一次挖矿都会耗费大量电力产生巨大成本，如果比特币的区块奖励不能弥补成本，将会有大量矿机停止挖矿，退出行业。现今区块奖励不断的折半，同时有部分矿机结合合作形成巨大的挖矿矿池，一旦某一矿池有把握占据半数的成功或更少，此矿池便会获得垄断地位，此后个体矿机将会退出挖矿游戏，由矿池一家独大，内分奖励。

Due to the limitations of the total amount of Bitcoin, the Bitcoin Open Source Agreement provides for a reduction of the Bitcoin block incentive by half for every 210,000 blocks generated. Each mining operation will cost a lot of electricity and, if the Bitcoin block incentive fails to cover the cost, a large number of miners will stop digging and leave the industry. Today, the block rewards continue to fall by half, while part of the miners work together to form a huge mining pond, which will gain a monopoly once a pond is sure to occupy half or less of it.

政策监管：

Policy regulation:

10月17日，根据俄罗斯通讯社TASS报道，俄罗斯总统普京和财政官员上周举行的一场会议中，俄罗斯监管者决定正式启动对比特币等数字加密货币的挖矿产业的监管。其他国家即便没有正式法规出台，但在监管比特币交易的同时，势必也会对挖矿产业进行监督。

On October 17, according to the Russian news agency TASS, in a meeting last week between Russian President Vladimir Putin and fiscal officials, Russian regulators decided to officially launch the regulation of the mining industry for digitally encrypted currencies, such as bitcoin. Other countries, even without a formal regulation, would have to monitor the mining industry while regulating bitcoin transactions.

挖矿难度不断加大：

Mining difficulties are increasing:

比特币的暴涨导致大量矿机开始加入，为了减速挖矿奖励，即降低系统target值，系统挖矿难度设置会快速上升。现已达近一周提升一次的难度。

The surge in Bitcoin has led to the entry of a large number of miners, and, in order to provide incentives to slow down mining, i.e. to lower the value of the system's target, the system's difficulty in mining will increase rapidly. It has now become difficult to raise it once a week.

电力耗费：

Electricity consumption:

挖矿是批量化运作，普通民居区满足不了供电，所以只能使用商电，而其电费远高于正常居民区用电。并且大量快速用电会吸引监管机构的注意力，也会对挖矿产生阻碍。

Mining is a bulk-quantized operation in which ordinary residential areas are unable to provide electricity, and therefore only use commercial electricity, which is much higher than electricity in normal residential areas. Large amounts of rapid electricity can attract the attention of regulatory agencies, and it can act as a barrier to mining.

三、数字货币

III, digital currency

数字货币是什么

What's the digital currency?

数字货币(digital currency)是电子货币形式的替代货币。数字金币和密码货币都属于数字货币(DIGICCY)。它不能完全等同于虚拟世界中的虚拟货币，因为它经常被用于真实的商品和服务交易，而不仅仅局限在网络游戏等虚拟空间中。数字金币实际上是一种实物货币形式，其存款以黄金而不是法定货币为单位计量。因此数字黄金货币的购买力波动和黄金价格相关。密码货币，Cryptocurrency，是不依托任何实物，使用密码算法的数字货币，比特币即为其中一种。以下讨论的其他货币类型也是这种密码货币。

Digital currency is an alternative currency in the form of electronic currency. Digital gold and cryptographic currency are digital money (DIGICCY). It cannot be fully equivalent to virtual currency in the virtual world, because it is often used in real goods and services transactions, not just in virtual spaces such as cyber games. Digital gold is actually a form of money in kind, whose deposits are measured in terms of gold rather than in legal currencies. So the purchasing power of digital gold currency is associated with gold prices.

较为普遍的除比特币外的其他数字货币

More common digital currencies other than bitcoins

面对比特币的暴涨，对准数字货币的资金大量涌向比特币。然而在分析一种数字货币是否存在超过比特币的投资价值时主要应分析其技术是否有革新，或其相同技术的质量是否超过比特币。但现今市场上的大部分数字货币均为基于比特币算法开发出的类似的数字货币，并无显著差异。并且在各国ICO的限制下，新型数字货币的出现已面临停滞。比特币的这主要竞品现有以太币(市值第二)，莱特币(市值第五)，详见上图。

In the face of the surge in bitcoins, money poured into bitcoins. However, in analysing whether a digital currency had an investment value in excess of bitcoins, it was important to analyse whether its technology was innovative or whether its equivalent was of greater quality than bitcoins.

其他具有投资价值的数字货币

Other digital currencies of investment value

比特币虽然一直突破新高，但是它的市值统治地位一直在下降，从2013年的90%的垄断地位，在今年七月达到低于40%的最低点，而后略有上浮。此次牛市开始，很多竞争币的价值开始被挖掘，而比特币则因为区块容量解决方案僵持不下的问题，导致开发停滞。但是比特币始终是吸引投资者进入这个市场的门面，市场扩大后，价值还是会继续上升，同时比特币也是与竞争币交易的一个重要配对，交易量很大，这对它的地位起了很重要的巩固作用。

Bitcoin’s market-market dominance has been declining from 90% of its monopolistic position in 2013 to below 40% of its lowest level in July of this year, and has risen slightly since then. The bull market began, with the value of many of the competing coins being excavated, while Bitcoin’s development stagnated by the block capacity freeze.

以下为主要数字货币市值占比图：

The market value of the major digital currencies is as follows:

个人认为，有潜力超过比特币地位，现阶段具有较大投资价值的主要有以下两种：

In the view of individuals, there are two main types of potential that may exceed the Bitcoin status and have a greater investment value at this stage:

以太币(ETH)

ETH

以太坊是一个智能合约平台，即在区块链的基础上搭建一个平台，用来给用户创建并运行智能合约。智能合约即(达到，触发预设条件时)自动执行的合约。以太坊的用处在于为客户创建区块链解决方案，避免从区块链开始的复杂技术过程。在区块链概念快速吸引大量投资者关注的情境下，以太坊的潜力不可限量。

Ether is a smart contractual platform that builds a platform based on a block chain to create and run smart contracts for users. Smart contracts are contracts that are automatically executed (when they meet, trigger, trigger predefined conditions). The usefulness of Ether is to create block chain solutions for clients, avoiding complex technological processes that begin with block chains. In a situation where the block chain concept quickly attracts attention from a large number of investors, the potential of Ether is unlimited.

以太币(ETH)便是在以太坊创建智能合约时用以支付使用费的代币(以太坊系统内的货币)。以太币与比特币属于区块链之下不同的领域，目标不同，没有直接的比较价值。

The Ethercopic currency (ETH) is the currency used to pay royalties (in the currency of the Etherm system) when creating an intelligent contract. The Ethercopic currency is a different area from that of Bitcoin under the block chain, with different objectives and no direct comparative value.

以太坊的这个智能合约平台，正在蓬勃发展，有很多很有潜力的项目。另外，一些全球500强企业、创业公司、学院、技术提供商也联合创建了企业以太坊联盟(EEA)Enterprise Ethereum Alliance。这些企业包括了微软、英特尔、bp、ING、三星、丰田等。目前以太币处于加密货币市值第二的位置。同时以太币非常适合作为比特币的对冲，与比特币同时持有，因为以太币交易速度快，交易成本小，暂时无类似于比特币的分裂风险。

In addition, a number of top 500 companies, start-ups, colleges, technology providers have joined forces to create the EEA Enderprise Enterprise Alliance. These include Microsoft, Intel, bp, ING, Samsung, Toyota, and others. They are now in second place in the market value of encrypted currencies. Tainotes are also well suited as a counterweight to Bitcoin and are held alongside Bitcoin because they are fast-trading and transaction costs are small, and for the time being do not pose the risk of splits similar to Bitcoins.

莱特币(Litecoin)

Litecoin

若说以太币适合长期持有，莱特币(Litecoin)则是此行情下不错的选择。

Litecoin is a good option in this case, if it is suitable for long-term possession.

如果是在短期内投资的话，莱特币会是一个值得考虑的对象，因为它已经激活了隔离验证，以后将会支持闪电网络。从技术角度看，莱特币已经从比特币的纯山寨品，成长为一个比特币技术发展的测试网络，也就是目前莱特币的技术发展已经超越了比特币。但是目前的价格仅为13年历史新高的一半。因此若比特币因为其技术桎梏或期权交易的开始而下跌，那么莱特币很可能是资金转移的一个风口。

If it were to invest in the short term, it would be worth considering, because it had activated isolation certification and would later support the lightning network. Technically, it had grown from a pure bitcoin brand to a testing network for bitcoin technological development, which now exceeds bitcoin. But the current price is only half as high as 13 years ago.

国家官方数字货币的发行

National Official Digital Currency Distribution

2017年10月17日，根据俄罗斯通讯社TASS报道，俄罗斯总统普京和财政官员的上周举行的一场会议中，俄罗斯监管者决定正式启动对比特币等数字加密货币的挖矿产业的监管。同时，俄罗斯拟推出国家数字货币CryptoRuble。

On October 17, 2017, according to the Russian news agency TASS, in a meeting last week between Russian President Vladimir Putin and fiscal officials, Russian regulators decided to officially launch the regulation of the mining industry for digitally encrypted currencies, such as bitcoin. At the same time, Russia plans to introduce the national digital currency, CryptoRuble.

2017年2月，中行数字货币方面取得了新进展。央行推动的基于区块链的数字票据交易平台已测试成功，由央行发行的法定数字货币已在该平台试运行，春节后央行旗下的数字货币研究所也将正式挂牌。

In February 2017, the middle-line digital currency made new progress. The block-based digital paper trading platform, promoted by the central bank, has been tested successfully, and the statutory digital currency issued by the central bank has been piloted, and the Digital Monetary Institute, under the central bank’s banner after spring, will be officially listed.

四、总结

IV, summary

比特币现阶段的主要价值为投资价值，其交易价值主要集中在违法的洗钱和黑市交易。同时由于近期暴涨有人工操控嫌疑，风险较大。另外，比特币作为一种非实体货币，一旦崩盘，投资者将血本无归，因而比特币投资应当谨慎选择。

The main value of Bitcoin at this stage is the value of the investment, which is concentrated in illegal money-laundering and black market transactions. At the same time, the risk is greater because of the recent surge, which is suspected of manual manipulation.

挖矿产业(包括比特币及其他数字货币)由于难度不断的加大，入局需更加谨慎。在数字货币正式得到大部分国家的承认及合法化之前，玩家应当更为理智的观望。

The mining industry (including bitcoin and other digital currencies) needs to be more cautious about entry due to increasing difficulties. Players should look more rationally before digital currencies are officially recognized and legalized by most countries.

（转载来源：微信公众号 线性资本  作者：陈俊杉）

(Reproduced from: Weibo Public & Linear Capital & nbsp; author: Jin Joon-sun)

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