1.为什么经济危机导致金本位制崩溃?
2.国际现货黄金的回顾历程
3.疯狂的比特币究竟是神还是鬼？长文分析比特币的投资价值
4.2022年黄金会跌还是涨？
黄金是一种特殊商品.它是在长期的商品交换过程中,在众多商品中游离出来固定充当一般等价物的商品.黄金作为货币,在世界市场上可以购买任何商品.黄金具有体积小价值大和容易分割久蒇不坏的自然属性,是最好的货币材料.黄金不仅本身有价值,而且充当衡量其他商品价值大小等五大职能.黄金是财富的化身和代表.黄金作为货币,它的价格也是由自身的价值决定的,并受供求关系的影响.黄金是稀有金属,生产黄金要耗费大量的人类劳动,劳动生产率提高很慢,所以国际市场上黄金价格相对稳定,尤其是在实行金本位的时候更是如此.现在世界各国虽然不以黄金为唯一储备,但都还储备黄金.纸币是代表黄金执行流通手段职能的.纸币发行量若超过或少于流通中所需的金属货币量,从而引起纸币贬值或升值,物价持续上涨或下跌,这就是所谓通货膨胀或通货紧缩. 国际上的价格是以美元/盎司来计算的，1盎司=31.1035克，把美元兑换成人民币是按美元价格÷31.1035×美元兑人民币汇率=人民币/克。你所看到的国际价格可能是错误的。可能到上面查看一些价格。网上收购的黄金都是以交易所为参考，然后按成色来定价格的。
Gold is a special commodity... it is a commodity in the long-term commodity exchange that moves out of its value to fix commodities that serve as general equivalents... gold is a currency... gold is a currency whose production is rare and expensive for human labour... gold is the natural attribute of any commodity on the world market... gold is the best monetary material... Gold is not only valuable in itself, but also serves as a five function of measuring the value of other commodities... Gold is the moor and representative of wealth... gold is a currency whose price is determined by its own value and is influenced by the supply and demand relationship... Gold is a rare metal, whose production is expensive for human labour and labour productivity is very slow, so that the price of gold on the international market is relatively stable, especially when gold is in place... Gold is now the only reserve, but it is now the sole reserve, but it is also the currency of gold.
参考资料： {\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D}Strong, strong, strong, strong, strong, strong, strong, strong, strong, strong, strong, strong.
1914年第一次世界大战时，全世界已有59个国家实行金本位制。金本位制具有如下特点：（1）黄金在国际交往中充当国际货币，各国中央银行汇票持有的国际储备资产大部分是黄金，黄金是国际货币制度的基础。金币可以自由铸造、自由兑换及自由输出入；（2）两国之间货币的汇率由它们各自的含金量之比--金平价（Gold Parity）来决定，例如一个英镑的含金量为113.0015格林，而一个美元的含金量为23.22格林，则:
At the time of the First World War in 1914, 59 countries throughout the world had a gold-based system. The gold-based system had the following characteristics: (1) gold served as an international currency in international dealings, and the bulk of the international reserve assets held by central bank bills were gold, which was the basis of the international monetary system. Gold coins were freely forged, freely convertible and freely exported; (2) the exchange rate of the currencies between the two countries was determined by their respective gold content ratios - Gold Parity, such as a pound sterling containing 113.0015 Greens and a dollar containing 23.22 Greens.
1英镑=113.0015/23.22=4.8665美元
Pound1 = 113.0015/23.22 = $4.8665
只要两国货币的含金量不变，两国货币的汇率就保持稳定。当然，这种固定汇率也要受外汇供求、国际收支的影响，但是汇率的波动仅限于黄金输送点（Gold Point）。黄金输送点是指汇价波动而引起黄金从一国输出或输入的界限。汇率波动的最高界限是铸币平价加运金费用，即黄金输出点（Gold Export Point）；汇率波动的最低界限是铸币平价减运金费用，即黄金输入点（Gold Import Point）。（3）具有自动调节国际收支的机制。当外汇收支出现逆差，黄金外流时，如果中央银行的黄金储备明显减少，会导致货币供给紧缩的效应，进而使物价下降，这将会提高本国商品出口的单键能力并抑制进口；同时紧缩也会使利率上扬，引起资本流入。在这种机制的作用促使国际收支恢复平衡。反之亦然。
As long as the gold content of the two currencies remains constant, the exchange rate of the two currencies will remain stable. Of course, the fixed exchange rate will also be subject to foreign exchange demand and demand and the balance of payments, but exchange rate fluctuations will be limited to the gold point (Gold Point). The gold point is the line that triggers the export or import of gold from a country as a result of exchange rate fluctuations.
随着金本位制的形成，黄金承担了商品交换的一般等价物，成为商品交换过程中的媒介，黄金的社会流动性增加。黄金市场的发展有了客观的社会条件和经济需求。在“金本位”时期，各国中央银行虽都可以按各国货币平价规定的金价无限制地买卖黄金，但实际上仍是通过市场吞吐黄金，因此黄金市场得到一定程度的发展。必须指出，这是一个受到严格控制的官方市场，黄金市场不能得到自由发展。因此直到第一次世界大战之前，世界上只有唯一的英国伦敦黄金市场是国际性市场。
With the formation of the gold-based system, gold has assumed the general equivalent of commodity exchanges, becoming the medium of commodity exchanges, and the social liquidity of gold has increased. The gold market has developed with objective social conditions and economic needs.
金本位制可以保证货币汇价的稳定，促进了国际贸易的顺利开展，由于国内货币发行受到中央银行所拥有的黄金储备的约束，不会出现过分的通货膨胀；对于国际收支也能起到调节作用。但同时金本位制也有其不利之处，最致命的缺陷是其赖以生存的基础不稳定.黄金存量的增长跟不上国内生产和流通的不断扩大以及社会财富的快速增长，国民经济的发展与货币基础的矛盾日益尖锐；其次是它往往使—国的国内货币政策取决于黄金流出还是流入，有可能出现由于黄金的流出，即使对外贸易收支已陷于逆差，仍不得不采取紧缩政策；或由于黄金流入而被迫采取膨胀政策的情况。20世纪初，第一次世界大战爆发严重地冲击了“金本位制”；到30年代又爆发了世界性的经济危机，使“金本位制”彻底崩溃，各国纷纷加强了贸易管制，禁止黄金自由买卖和进出口，公开的黄金市场失去了存在的基础，伦敦黄金市场关闭。一关便是15年，直至1954年方后重新开张。从1914年至1938年期间，西方的矿产金绝大部分被各国中央银行吸收，黄金市场的活动有限。此后对黄金的管理虽有所松动，但长期人为地确定官价，而且国与国之间贸易森严壁垒，所以黄金的流动性很差，市场机制被严重抑制，黄金市场发育受到了严重阻碍。
The gold system also has its disadvantages, and the most deadly shortcomings are its precarious subsistence base. The growth of gold stocks has not kept pace with the expansion of domestic production and circulation and the rapid growth of social wealth. The global economic crisis of the late 1930s has led to a complete collapse of the gold system, which has led to increased trade control, a ban on the free trade and import of gold, the loss of an open gold market, and the closure of the gold market in London 15 years after the first round of gold inflows.
一战后，1922年在意大利召开的世界货币会议上，决定采用“节约黄金”的原则.除美国实行金本位制外，英法实行金块本位制，其它国家多实行金汇兑本位制。”金块本位制的特点是：国内不流通金币，只发行代表一定重量黄金的银行券，银行券只能有限制地兑换金块。而金汇兑本位制又称“虚金本位制”，其主要特点是：银行券在国内不能兑换黄金和金币，只能兑换外汇。该国货币一般与另一个实行金本位制或金块本位制国家的货币保持固定的比价，并在后者存放外汇或黄金作为平准基金，从而间接实行了金本位制。实际上，它是一种带有附属性质的货币制度。当然，无论金块本位制或金汇兑本位制，都是削弱了的金本位制.很不稳定。而这种脆弱的制度经过1929年—1933年的世界经济危机，终于全部瓦解。
After the war, at the World Monetary Conference held in Italy in 1922, it was decided to adopt the principle of “gold savings”... In addition to the gold standard system in the United States, the British and French systems of gold tiles are in place in other countries, and the gold exchange system is in place in other countries.” The feature of the tile system is that there is no domestic circulation of gold coins, which only issue bank vouchers representing a certain weight of gold, which can only be converted to gold. In fact, it is a subsidiary monetary system. Of course, the principal features of the gold-exchange system are that bank bonds cannot be converted to gold and gold-denominated in the country, and only to exchange foreign currencies.
2. 布雷顿森林系时期（20世纪40年代至70年代初）
2. Bretton Woods period (from the 1940s to the early 1970s)
1944年，经过激烈的争论英美两国达成了共识，美国于当年5月邀请参加筹建联合国的44国政府的代表在美国布雷顿森林举行会议，签定了“布雷顿森林协议”，建立了“金本位制”崩溃后的人类第二个国际货币体系。布雷顿森林体系的核心是；(1)以美元为国际货币结算的基础，美元成为世界最主要的国际储备货币；(2)美元直接与黄金挂钩(制定了35美元1盎司的官方金价)，其它国家货币与美元挂钩，各国可按官价向美国兑换黄金；(3)实行固定汇率制，各国货币与美元的汇率.一般只能在平价1%上下幅度波动，各国央行有义务在超过规定界限时进行干预。至此，美元取得了等同于黄金的地位，成为世界各国的支付手段和储备货币。在布雷顿货币体制中，黄金无论在流通还是在国际储备方面的作用都有所降低，而美元成为了这一体系中的主角。但因为黄金是稳定这一货币体系的最后屏障，所以黄金的价格及流动都仍受到较严格的控制，各国禁止居民自由买卖黄金，市场机制难以有效发挥作用。伦敦黄金市场在该体系建立十年后才得以恢复。
In 1944, following intense debate between the United States and the United States, the United States invited representatives of the 44 Governments participating in the United Nations to meet in Bretton Woods, United States, in May that year, to sign the Bretton Woods Agreement, establishing the second international monetary system for humanity after the collapse of the “gold standard” system. At the heart of the Bretton Woods system was: (1) the United States dollar was the basis for international currency accounting, and the dollar became the world’s leading international reserve currency; (2) the dollar was directly linked to gold (the official value of $351 ounces had been established), while other countries’ currencies were tied to the United States dollar, and the dollar became a major player in the system; (3) the fixed exchange rate system, with the exchange rate of currencies to the United States dollar generally varying from 1 per cent to 1 per cent, and central banks were obliged to intervene when the specified threshold was exceeded.
布雷顿森林货币体系的建立，在战后相当一段时间内，确实带来了国际贸易空前发展和全球经济越来越相互依存的时代。但布雷顿森林体系存在着内在的缺陷，即它在美元作为主要储备资产，具有内在的不稳定性。因为只有靠美国的长期贸易逆差，才能使美元流出，使其他国家获得美元供应成为国际储备。但这样一来，必然会影响人们对美元的信心，引起美元危机。而如果美元保持国际收支平衡，就会断绝国际储备的供应，引起国际清偿能力的不足。
The establishment of the Bretton Woods monetary system did, for some time after the war, usher in an era of unprecedented growth in international trade and growing interdependence of the global economy. But the Bretton Woods system has inherent weaknesses, namely, its inherent instability in the dollar as a major reserve asset.
50年代后期，随着美国经济竞争逐渐削弱，其国际收支开始趋向恶化， 60年代美国深陷越南战争的泥潭，财政赤字巨大，美元的信誉受到极大的冲击。大量资本出逃，各国纷纷抛售自己手中的美元，抢购黄金，使美国黄金储备急剧减少，伦敦金价暴涨。
In the late 1950s, the balance of payments of the United States began to deteriorate as economic competition weakened, and the United States was mired in the war in Viet Nam in the 1960s, with a huge fiscal deficit and a huge blow to the credibility of the United States dollar. Large capital outflows led countries to sell dollars in their hands, to buy gold, and to a sharp decline in American gold reserves, and to a sharp rise in London’s gold prices.
为了抑制金价上涨，保持美元汇率，减少黄金储备流失，美国联合英国、瑞士、法国、西德、意大利、荷兰、比利时八个国家于1961年10月建立了“黄金总库”，八国央行共拿出2．7亿美元的黄金，由英格兰银行为黄金总库的代理机关，负责维持伦敦黄金价格，并采取各种手段阻止外国政府持美元外汇向美国兑换黄金。60年代后期，美国进一步扩大了侵越战争，国际收支进一步恶化，美元危机再度爆发。1968年3月的半个月中，美国黄金储备流出了14亿多美元，仅3月14日一天，伦敦黄金市场的成交量达到了350～400吨的破记录数字。美国再也没有维持黄金官价的能力，经与黄金总库成员协商后，宣布不再按每盎司35美元官价向市场供应黄金，市场金价自由浮动，但各国政府或中央银行仍按官价结算，从此黄金开始了双价制阶段。但双价制也维持了三年的时间，原因是美国国际收支仍不断恶化，美元不稳；二是西方各国不满美国以已私利为原则，不顾美元危机拒不贬值，强行维持固定汇率。于是欧洲一些国家采取了请君入瓮的策略，既然美国拒不提高黄金价格，让美元贬值，他们就以手中的美元兑换美国的储备黄金。当1971年8月传出法国等西欧国家要以美元大量兑换黄金的消息后，美国于8月15日不得不宣布停止履行对外国政府或中央银行以美元向美国兑换黄金的义务。1973年3月因美元贬值，再次引发了欧洲抛售美元、抢购黄金的风潮。西欧和日本外汇市场不得不关闭了17天。经过磋商最后达成协议，西方国家放弃固定汇率，实行浮动汇率。至此布雷顿森林货币体系完全崩溃，从此也开始了黄金非货币化的改革进程。但从法律的角度看，国际货币体系的黄金非货币化到1978年才正式明确。国际货币基金组织在1978年以多数票通过批准了修改后的《国际货币基金协定》。该协定删除了以前有关黄金的所有规定，宣布：黄金不再作为货币定值标准，废除黄金官价，可在市场上自由买卖黄金；取消对国际货币基金组织（IMF）必须用黄金支付的规定；出售国际货币基金组织1/6黄金，所得利润用于建立帮助低收入国家优惠贷款基金；设立特别提款权代替黄金用于会员国与IMF之间的某些支付等等。
In order to contain the rise in gold prices, maintain the exchange rate of the United States dollar and reduce the loss of gold reserves. In the late 1960s, the United States further expanded the war, the balance of payments worsened and the dollar crisis erupted again. During the half-month of March 1968, the United States gold reserves began to flow more than $1.4 billion, the central bank of Italy, the Netherlands and Belgium established a “gold master bank” in October 1961. The central bank of the Group of Eight paid $270 million in gold, with the Bank of England acting as the agent of the gold bank, maintaining the London gold price and using various means to prevent foreign governments from using the dollar to convert gold to the United States.
在这一时期黄金价格一直受到国家的严格控制，国家对黄金市场的介入干预时有发生，黄金市场仅是国家进行黄金管制的一种调节工具，难以发挥市场资源配置作用。市场的功能发挥是不充分的。
Gold prices have been strictly controlled by the State during this period, and State intervention in the gold market has occurred at times. The gold market is merely a regulatory tool for the State to regulate gold, and it is difficult to fulfil its role in allocating resources to the market. Markets are not functioning adequately.
3. 黄金非货币化时期（20世纪70年代至今）
3. The period of demonetization of gold (from the 1970s to the present)
国际黄金非货币化的结果，使黄金成为了可以自由拥有和自由买卖的商品，黄金从国家金库走向了寻常百姓家，其流动性大大增强，黄金交易规模增加，因此为黄金市场的发育、发展提供了现实的经济环境。黄金非货币化的20年来也正是世界黄金市场得以发展的时期。可以说黄金非货币化使各国逐步放松了黄金管制，是当今黄金市场得以发展的政策条件，但同样需要指出的是，黄金制度上的非货币化与现实的非货币化进程存在着滞后现象。国际货币体系中黄金非货币化的法律过程已经完成，但是黄金在实际的经济生活中并没有完全退出金融领域，当今黄金仍作为一种公认的金融资产活跃在投资领域，充当国家或个人的储备资产。
As a result of the international demonetization of gold, gold has become a freely owned and freely traded commodity, moving from a national treasury to an ordinary household, with a significant increase in liquidity and an increase in the scale of the gold trade, thus providing a realistic economic environment for the growth and development of the gold market. Gold demonetization has also been a period in which the world’s gold market has been developing for 20 years.
当今的黄金分为商品性黄金和金融性黄金。国家放开黄金管制不仅使商品黄金市场得以发展，同时也促使金融黄金市场迅速地发展起来。并且由于交易工具的不断创新，几十倍、上百倍地扩大了黄金市场的规模。现在商品实物黄金交易额不足总交易额的3％，90％以上的市场份额是黄金金融衍生物，而且世界各国央行仍保留了高达3．4万吨的黄金储备。在1999年9月26日欧洲15国央行的声明中，再次确认黄金仍是公认的金融资产。因此我们不能单纯地将黄金市场的发展原因归结为黄金非货币化的结果，也不能把黄金市场视为单纯的商品市场，客观的评价是：在国际货币体制黄金非货币化的条件下，黄金开始由货币属性主导的阶段向商品属性回归的阶段发展，国家放开了黄金管制，使市场机制在黄金流通及黄金资源配置方面发挥出日益增强的作用。但目前黄金仍是一种具有金融属性的特殊商品。所以不论是商品黄金市场，还是金融性黄金市场都得到了发展。商品黄金交易与金融黄金交易在不同地区、不同市场中的表现和活跃程度有所不同。
Today’s gold is divided into commodity gold and financial gold. In a statement by the Central Bank of Europe’s 15 countries on 26 September 1999, it was reaffirmed that gold remains a recognized financial asset. Thus, we cannot attribute the development of the gold market solely to the result of the demonetaryization of gold, nor treat the gold market as a mere commodity market.
为什么经济危机导致金本位制崩溃?
布雷顿森林货币体系的运转与美元的信誉和地位密切相关，到20世纪60～70年代，美国深陷越南战争的泥潭，财政赤字巨大，国际收入情况恶化，美元的信誉受到极大的冲击，爆发了多次美元危机。大量资本出逃，各国纷纷抛售自己手中的美元，抢购黄金，使美国黄金储备急剧减少，伦敦金价暴涨。为了抑制金价上涨，保持美元汇率，减少黄金储备流失，美国联合英国、瑞士、法国、西德、意大利、荷兰、比利时八个国家于1961年10月建立了黄金总库，八国央行共拿出2.7亿美元的黄金，由英格兰银行为黄金总库的代理机关，负责维持伦敦黄金价格，并采取各种手段阻止外国政府持美元外汇向美国兑换黄金。
The operation of the Bretton Woods monetary system was closely linked to the credibility and status of the dollar. By the 1960’s and 1970’s, the United States had been mired in the Vietnam war, fiscal deficits had worsened, international revenues had deteriorated, the credibility of the dollar had been severely affected, and a number of dollar crises had broken out.
60年代后期，美国进一步扩大了侵越战争，国际收支进一步恶化，美元危机再度爆发。1968年3月的半个月中，美国黄金储备流出了14亿多美元，仅3月14日一天，伦敦黄金市场的成交量达到了350～400吨的破记录数字。美国再也没有维持黄金官价的能力，经与黄金总库成员协商后，宣布不再按每盎司35美元官价向市场供应黄金，市场金价自由浮动，但各国政府或中央银行仍按官价结算，从此黄金开始了双价制阶段。但双价制也维持了三年的时间，原因是美国国际收支仍不断恶化，美元不稳；二是西方各国不满美国以已私利为原则，不顾美元危机拒不贬值，强行维持固定汇率。于是欧洲一些国家采取了请君入瓮的策略，既然美国拒不提高黄金价格，让美元贬值，他们就以手中的美元兑换美国的储备黄金。
In the late 1960s, the US further expanded the war, the balance of payments worsened, and the US dollar crisis erupted again. During the half-month of March 1968, US gold reserves flowed more than $1.4 billion, reaching a record value of 350-400 tons in the London gold market on just one day, on 14 March.
当1971年8月传出法国等西欧国家要以美元大量兑换黄金的消息后，美国于8月15日不得不宣布停止履行对外国政府或中央银行以美元向美国兑换黄金的义务。1971年12月以《史密森协定》为标志美元对黄金贬值，同时美联储拒绝向国外中央银行出售黄金，至此美元与黄金挂钩的体制名存实亡。
When in August 1971 news came out that Western European countries, such as France, were going to exchange large amounts of gold for dollars, the United States had to announce on 15 August that it would cease its obligations to foreign governments or central banks to convert gold to the United States in United States dollars. In December 1971, the Smithsonian Agreement marked the depreciation of the dollar against gold, while the Federal Reserve refused to sell gold to foreign central banks, so that the dollar-to-gold system was in existence.
1973年3月因美元贬值，再次引发了欧洲抛售美元、抢购黄金的风潮。西欧和日本外汇市场不得不关闭了17天。经过磋商最后达成协议，西方国家放弃固定汇率制，实行浮动汇率制。至此布雷顿森林货币体系完全崩溃，从此也开始了黄金非货币化的改革进程。但直至1976年国际社会间才了达成了以浮动汇率合法化、黄金的非货币化等为主要内容的“牙买加协定”。从法律的角度看，国际货币体系的黄金非货币化到1978年才正式明确。国际货币基金组织在1978年以多数票通过批准了修改后的《国际货币基金协定》。该协定删除了以前有关黄金的所有规定，宣布：黄金不再作为货币定值标准，废除黄金官价，可在市场上自由买卖黄金；取消对国际货币基金组织（IMF）必须用黄金支付的规定；出售国际货币基金组织1/6黄金，所得利润用于建立帮助低收入国家优惠贷款基金；设立特别提款权代替黄金用于会员国与IMF之间的某些支付等等。
Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system in March 1973, the process of de-monetization of gold has begun. But it was not until 1976 that a “Jamaican agreement” was reached among the international community, with floating exchange rate legalization, non-monetization of gold, etc. The non-monetization of gold in the international monetary system had to be closed for 17 days. From a legal point of view, the non-monetization of gold in the international monetary system was not formalized until 1978. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved by a majority in 1978 the revised International Monetary Fund (IMF) Agreement, which eliminated all previous provisions on gold and declared that gold would no longer serve as a currency-setting standard, abolished official gold prices and allowed free trading of gold on the market; eliminated the requirement that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) must pay gold; sold 1/6 of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), whose profits would be used to establish a concessional loan fund to help low-income countries; created SDRs to replace some payments between Member States and the IMF.
布雷顿森林体系崩溃以后，国际货币基金组织和世界银行作为重要的国际组织仍得以存在，并发挥重要作用。
Following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank continued to exist and play an important role as important international organizations.
国际现货黄金的回顾历程
在19世纪后半期，主要货币的价值由金价决定，固定汇率制度建立在这个基础之上。第一次世界大战导致国际金融秩序的紊乱，从而使得金本位制度崩溃。在战争之后，英国和美国一起，准备恢复金本位制度。到了1928年，金本位体制建立起来，参与者的数量还超过从前，达到40多个国家。但是，随后的经济大萧条又削弱了国际金融合作的基础，金本位体制很快再一次崩溃。\r \r 金本位制\r “19世纪的后25年是在金本位基础上建立的国际货币体系不断扩展的最好见证，它以各国货币的固定国际汇率将世界上主要国家联系起来，因而可能是一种比以往任何体系都更稳定的体系。[1]”英国是从1821年开始实行金本位的货币制度，德国在1871年采用了金本位、荷兰是在1873年紧随德国之后，瑞士和比利时是在1878年采用的金本位制度。法国虽然朝着金本位制度方向发展，但是它保持着金银复本位制。1879年，美国开始用黄金固定美元的价值，1897年俄罗斯和日本支持采用黄金，而奥匈帝国实际上也是支持金本位制度的。可以看出，作为国际货币体系形式的金本位制度在1900年以前已经在全球范围内扩展。金本位体系被认为是国际货币安排和国际收支调整的特别体系。\r \r 虽然对金本位体制下自动调节的解释在不同的国家有一些不同，但是原理基本一样。出口国接受外币支付，因为不愿意持有外币，所以，他们就将其转换为黄金，然后再把黄金拿到国内银行转换成国内货币。这样，有国际收支赤字的国家将面临黄金净流出，有国际收支盈余的国家将面临黄金净流入，因为黄金提供了一个基础——所有国内货币在需求上都可以转变为黄金——这将决定每一个国家的货币盈余。调节过程被认为是随之而来的。国际收支逆差，导致外汇汇率上涨超过黄金输出点，从而黄金外流。在这样的情况下，央行黄金储备减少，导致货币流通量减少，从而通货紧缩，物价下降，价格下降之后提高商品在国际市场上的竞争能力，从而使得输出增加，输入减少，国际收支恢复平衡。当国际收支发生顺差，那么外汇汇率下跌低于黄金输入点，从而黄金流入，导致货币流通量增加，带动物价上涨，从而使得输出减少，输入增加，这样国际收支恢复平衡。\r \r 但是在实践中，调节很少是自发的。国家常常不按照理论上的规则来调节其经济。经常项目的顺差不是依靠贸易来进行调整，而是通过利率机制，通过资本项目来弥补差额。比如，当国际收支逆差所造成的黄金流失和国内货币供应减少时，通过提高市场利率，从而引起套利资本流入该国。当出现黄金流失的时候，英格兰银行通过提高再贴现率，这就使得伦敦金融市场利率水平的上升，从而加快国际资本流入。总之，处于贸易顺差的工业化国家在发展中国家大力投资，巨额资本转移的效果掩盖了发展中国家的赤字。贸易顺差国家发现不用调节国内经济适应金本位制就能够保持其地位。国际收支的赤字在短期内可以通过提高国内利率加以掩饰。金本位制在第一次世界大战前之所以能够相对稳定地从英国扩展到世界其他国家，进而演化为一种国际货币体系，这是与英国在世界经济中的霸权地位相互联系的。英国自18 世纪60 年代工业革命开始，到19 世纪中期，已经成为世界工厂以及世界贸易金融中心。从1760 年到1820年，英国的工业生产总值约占世界工业生产的50 % ，对外贸易占世界贸易总额的27 %。随着英国银行业的不断发展，对外放贷业务日益活跃。到19 世纪中期，伦敦已经成为世界金融中心，英镑实际上作为世界货币充当着各国贸易结算的主要支付手段和储备货币。在大多数工业化强国于19 世纪70 年代实行金本位制之前，英国已利用自身强大的经济实力使大量黄金流入了本国。更为重要的是，英镑在这一过程中成为一种等同于黄金的国际货币，在雄厚实力和自由贸易政策的支持下，英国的对外贸易在当时占据了绝对领先的地位，而国际贸易的扩大也使英镑的国际信誉逐步建立起来，而在英镑国际化的过程中，伦敦也成为当时世界上独一无二的国际金融中心。\r \r 金本位制本身就存在一些问题。它会带来极高的资本流动性，巨大的私人资本流量以及外汇的投机攻击。在战争的压力下，世界经济的结构变化加上普遍的国内经济和政治危机，金本位制将无法顺利发挥作用。\r \r 经济萧条\r 工业化以来，经济危机出现过许多次。有学者认为具有周期性的特点。英国是世界上最先进行工业革命的国家，也是世界上率先实现工业化的国家。曾经在1825年爆发过第一次经济危机。美国工业化始于19世纪20年代，较英国晚了半个多世纪。1865年美国南北战争结束后，废除了奴隶制，经济取得了突破性的进展，并于19世纪70年代赶上了英国。从历史角度考察，美国先后分别于1825年、1837年、1847年、1857年、1866年、1873年、1882年、1890年、1900年、1907年、1920-21年、1929-33年、1937-38年、1948-49年、1957-58年、1969-70年、1974-75年、1980-82年、1990-91年多次发生过经济危机。但是只有两次危机是较大的。一次是1857年的经济危机，一次是1929-1933年的经济危机。\r \r 1914-1918年的第一次世界大战，是人类历史上的一次浩劫。欧洲是这次战争的主战场，英、德、法、俄等国家为争夺霸权互相拼死厮杀，元气大伤，唯独美国在战争中增强了经济实力和军事实力。就连当时头号投资大国英国也欠美国41亿美元的债款。美国已由战前的债务国变成资本主义世界的主要债权国和国际金融中心，同时，美国也从战前的工业大国之一跃为资本主义世界名列首位的经济大国。经济的扩张创造出信心和期望心理，结果使美国的股市持续上涨。股市价格平均一年上涨18％，1926年3月到1929年10月间涨了一倍以上。但是这是泡沫经济，终于股市大崩盘。实体经济在1929年的夏季开始走上下坡路。汽车生产从1929年6月开始下挫。农产品价格从1929年到1932年跌50％。崩盘导致人们争相追求流动性，债主急于把借出去的钱收回来，持有股票的人则急于脱手。这个过程中，订单和贷款取消了。通货紧缩散布到脆弱的商品市场与耐用消费品工业。银行开始接二连三的倒闭。破产的银行从1929 年的659 家增至1930 年的1352 家，到1933年情况仍然十分严重，破产加上停业整顿和改组的银行高达4004 家，占银行总数的28.2 %。与此同时，工业企业开工率迅速下降，1932 年制造业的开工率由1929 年的约80 %降到了42 %，其中最严重的行业如炼钢业同期从88. 5 %降到19. 5 %，从而造成经济的大萧条[2]。 \r 这次经济危机是世界经济发展史上最严重的大萧条。1929到1932年间，美国的全国产出下降32％，工业产量的降幅接近一半。失业率从1929年的3.1％上升到1932年的23.6％[1]。1929-1933年大危机是资本主义世界历时最长、损失最大的一次经济危机。在这次危机中，大批企业破产倒闭，成千上万的劳动者失业，自由市场体系彻底崩溃。罗斯福为了挽救危机在美国实行新政，开创了混合经济的新时代。
In the second half of the nineteenth century, the value of the major currencies was determined by gold prices, and the fixed exchange-rate regime was established on that basis. The first world war led to the disruption of the international financial order, resulting in the collapse of the gold standard. In the aftermath of the war, the United Kingdom and the United States, together, prepared to restore the gold standard. By 1928, the gold standard was established, with more participants than before, reaching more than 40 countries. However, the subsequent economic depression weakened the basis of international financial cooperation. \r \r the gold standard \r the second quarter of the nineteenth century, the second quarter of the gold standard, the second quarter of the gold standard, the second quarter of the century, the second quarter of the world, the second quarter of the century, the second of the world, the second quarter of the world, the second quarter, the second of the world of the gold, the second of the gold, the second of the gold, the second of the gold, the second of the gold, the second of the gold, the second of the gold, the second of the second century, the second of the gold, the second of the second of the second century, the gold, the second of the second of the second century, and the second half, the second half, the second of the second half, the second half, the second of the second of the second of the second half, the second of the gold, the second of the second half, the second of the second of the second of the second of the second half of the second half of the second century, the second half, the second half of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second half of the second of the second half of the second half, the second half, the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second half, the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second of the second half of the second of the second of the
疯狂的比特币究竟是神还是鬼？长文分析比特币的投资价值
黄金30年的牛熊历程（资料）
30 years of gold cow bear journey (information)
1967年11月18日，英镑在战后第二次贬值；1968年3月17日，“黄金总汇”解体；1969年8月8日，法郎贬值11.11%。
On 18 November 1967, the pound sterling depreciated for the second time after the war; on 17 March 1968, the “gold sink” dissolved; and on 8 August 1969, the franc depreciated by 11.11 per cent.
1971年8月15日，美国总统尼克松发表电视讲话，关闭黄金窗口，停止各国政府或中央银行持有美元前来兑换黄金。美元挣脱黄金的牢狱，自由浮动于外汇市场。
On 15 August 1971, President Nixon of the United States made a televised speech, closing the gold window and stopping governments or central banks from holding dollars to exchange gold. The dollar broke out of the gold prison and floated freely on the foreign exchange market.
1972年这一年，伦敦市场的金价从1盎司46美元涨到美元。
In 1972, the price of gold in the London market rose from US$ 46 per ounce to US$ 46.
1973年，金价冲破100美元。
In 1973, the price was 100 dollars.
1974年到1977年，金价在130美元到180美元之间波动。
Between 1974 and 1977, gold prices fluctuated between $130 and $180.
1978年，原油飙涨达一桶30美元，金价涨到244美元。
In 1978, crude oil skyrocketed to $30 a barrel and gold prices rose to $244.
1979年，金价涨到500美元。10月，美国通胀率冲破12%。
In 1979, gold prices rose to $500. In October, inflation in the United States broke 12 per cent.
1980年元月的头两个交易日，金价达到634美元，美国财长米勒宣布财政部不再出售黄金，之后不到30分钟金价大涨30美元达715美元，元月21日创850美元新高。美国总统卡特不得不出来打压金市，表示一定会不惜任何代价来维护美国在世界上的地位，当天收盘时金价下跌了50美元。
On the first two trading days of the month of January 1980, the gold price reached $634, and US Secretary of State Miller announced that the Treasury would no longer sell the gold, and less than 30 minutes later the gold price rose by $30 to $715, and on the 21st of the month it was 850 dollars. US President Carter had to come out to press the gold market, saying that he would do anything to preserve America’s position in the world, and that the gold price fell by $50 at the time of the cut-off that day.
1980年2月22日，金价重挫145美元。
On 22 February 1980, the gold price was severely reduced by $145.
当代首次黄金大牛市宣告结束，时间长达12年。 金价从1968年的35美元涨到1980年的850美元的12年间，每年有30%的获利率。1980年黄金投资额达1兆六千亿美元，已超出只有1兆四千亿美元的美国股票市值。而在1959年，黄金的投资额仅是美国股票市值的五分之一。
The gold price rose from $35 in 1968 to $850 in 1980, at an interest rate of 30% per year. In 1980, gold investment amounted to $1.6 trillion, exceeding the market value of only $1.4 trillion in US equities.
1981年，金价每盎司的盘势峰顶是599美元。到了1985年，盘势降到 300美元左右。1987年，美国股市崩盘后，黄金价格触及486美元的峰顶后便一路下滑。
In 1981, gold peaked at $599 per ounce. By 1985, it fell to around $300. In 1987, after the collapse of the United States stock market, gold prices fell all the way to a peak of $486.
1988 年至1999年的有关黄金市场的评论：
Comments from 1988 to 1999 on the gold market:
1988年2月8日：上周五每盎司金价以439美元收市，令黄金好友捏一把冷汗，因为金价支持点正好在此水平，技术分析告诉我们，此水平一旦跌破，金价就如入无支持之境，要跌至什么价位才能企稳，技术派已不敢肯定，艾略特理论的指示是180美元。
8 February 1988: Last Friday, the market was collected at $439 per ounce of gold, giving gold friends a chilling sweat, because the gold price support point was at that level, and the technical analysis tells us that once this level falls, the gold price becomes unsupportive, what price it takes to stabilize, and the technologists are no longer sure that the Elliott theorizing directive is $180.
1988年8月20日：既然投资者忧虑经济衰退迟早来临，那么黄金是不应忽略的投资工具。在30年代股市大崩溃时，最有代表性的金矿股 Homestake的股价从1929年的7美元上升至1932年的46美元(期间道指跌幅达90%)。
20 August 1988: Since investors worry about a recession sooner or later, gold is an investment instrument that should not be overlooked. When the stock market collapsed in the 1930’s, the most representative gold-mining unit, Homestake, rose from $7 in 1929 to $46 in 1932 (a 90% drop in its index for the period).
1989年2月1日：金价从1980年1月20日的历史高位850美元计，到 1988年年底，美元金价已跌去52%。在这十年内，美国的通胀率升幅共达 90%，以低通胀率见称的日本也在20%的水平，而黄金的这段走势说明它没有抗拒通胀的能力，黄金应从“保值商品”上除名(有意思的是，若以日元计，这十年的金价跌幅最厉害，达75%。)。
1 February 1989: Gold prices fell by 52% from the historic high of $850 on 20 January 1980 to the end of 1988. During the decade, inflation rose by 90% in the United States, and 20% in Japan, known for its low inflation rate, while the trend in gold suggests that it has no capacity to resist inflation and that gold should be removed from “value-added commodities” (it is interesting to note that in the Japanese yen, the decade’s gold price fell by 75%).
在80年代，黄金无息成本的弱势凸现。因为在70年代，债券及银行利息都低于通胀率，也就是“负利率”，这时黄金无息可以忽略不计，到了80年代，债券和其他固定利息的投资工具所提供的收益高于通胀率，令黄金的魅力骤然失色。
In the 1980s, the weakness of the interest-free cost of gold was highlighted. Because in the 1970s, bonds and bank interest were lower than the inflation rate, or “negative interest rates”, gold was negligible, and in the 1980’s, bonds and other fixed interest investment instruments provided higher returns than inflation, ravaging gold.
1989年2月13日：名画和古董与金银一样是无息产品，为什么前者在80年代的价格大涨？原因是物以稀为贵。名画和古董往往是独一无二的，而金银能不断生产。
13 February 1989: Famous paintings and antiques, like gold and silver, are non-interest-free products, and why did the former soar in the 1980s? Because things are so precious. Paints and antiques are often unique, and gold and silver can be produced on an ongoing basis.
1989年11月15日：金价从9月中旬的350美元回升至11月14日的391.5美元收市，两个月升幅达11%，令“金甲虫”兴奋不已，但往上已难有作为。
15 November 1989: Gold prices recovered from US$ 350 in mid-September to US$ 391.5 on 14 November, rising by 11 per cent in two months, making “gold beetles” excited but hard to make up.
1989年12月9日：金价在11月27日见427美元之后，市上传出苏联大量抛售黄金的消息，令市场价格大幅波动。事实上，在过去十多年中，作为世界第二大黄金出产国的“苏联卖金”传闻，对下降的金价发挥了巨大作用。
9 December 1989: After the gold price was seen at $427 on 27 November, news of a massive sale of gold by the Soviet Union caused large fluctuations in market prices. Indeed, over the past 10 years, rumours of “Soviet gold sales” as the world’s second largest gold-producing country have played a significant role in the decline in gold prices.
金价确实与通胀率无关。1981年，美国通胀率上升8.9%，当年金价却大跌32%；1986年通胀率跌至1.1%，但当年金价上升19%。
Gold prices did not have anything to do with inflation. In 1981, inflation in the United States rose by 8.9 per cent, while it fell by 32 per cent; in 1986, inflation fell to 1.1 per cent, but it rose by 19 per cent.
1990年5月24日：市场出现18.7吨(每吨为二万七千盎司)黄金的沽盘，是美国清盘官将申请破产的储贷银行及财务公司所持黄金集中推出，金价大跌，推低至360美元。
24 May 1990: A market of 18.7 tons of gold (of 27,000 ounces per ton) was used by the United States clearing officer to concentrate the gold held by the loan banks and financial companies applying for bankruptcy, which fell sharply to the price of $360.
1990年7月12日：1989年新产黄金加上旧金翻碎金整合(铸成金条)等来源，黄金总供应量为二千七百二十三吨。在需求方面，首饰用去一百三十八吨、电子业用了一百三十八吨，金币消耗量一百二十三吨，其他(主要为实金持有者)购进了六百五十一吨。
12 July 1990: The total supply of gold was 27,723 tons in 1989 from sources such as the new production of gold and the consolidation of old gold with the folding of gold (a gold line). On the demand side, jewellery was used for 138 tons, electronics for 138 tons, gold coins for 123 tons, and others (mainly real money holders) for 651 tons.
首饰金的需求占了黄金总供应量的67%，而且1989年的首饰用黄金较 1988年的约一千五百吨增长了23%。尽管如此，金价仍是不振。1988年，各国央行买卖黄金出现净购额285吨，1989年则为净卖额二百五十五吨。
The demand for jewellery accounts for 67% of the total supply of gold, and in 1989 there was a 23% increase in jewellery use compared to about 1,500 tons in 1988. Still, the price of gold was weak. In 1988, central banks bought 285 tons of gold, compared to 255 tons in 1989.
由于冷战式微，黄金作为政治保险效用也消失了，无利息还得付仓租的黄金恐非精明的投资人所选。
As a result of the cold war microscopic nature, the utility of gold as a political insurance has also disappeared, and gold riskier investors have chosen to pay rent without interest.
1990年9月5日：伊拉克入侵科威特，金价从370美元反弹至417美元，又往下打回383美元。由于美国财赤日趋严重，美元汇价摇摇欲坠和全球信贷危机呼之欲出，金价长期看有向500美元的“颈线”靠拢的趋势，一旦升至 500美元，最低升幅可令金价见700 美元，中间数为850美元，最高可见1000美元。
5 September 1990: Iraq invaded Kuwait and the gold price rebounded from US$ 370 to US$ 417 and returned US$ 383 to the bottom. As a result of the increasing wealth of the United States, the price of United States dollars shaky and the global credit crisis, there is a long-term trend towards a “circle line” of US$ 500, with a minimum increase of US$ 700 and a median of US$ 850, up to US$ 1,000, once it rises to US$ 500.
1991年1月12日：21世纪是“现金为王”，这与70年代末80年代初的“现金是垃圾”，简直天壤之别，黄金已成为“一沉百踩”的商品。但金价仍有可能凌厉反弹。
12 January 1991: The twenty-first century was “cash is king,” which was quite different from “cash is garbage” in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s, when gold became a “one-hundred-stamp” commodity. But gold prices are still likely to rebound.
1991年6月13日：金银一齐上升，却有不同的理由。盎司白银价在3 月曾跌至4美元以下，不及其最高价的十分之一，原因是大家以为白银供过于求。但5月中旬，美国一家机构认为白银恰恰是求过于供，1991年白银产量为四亿八千一百万盎司，需求则达五亿九千万盎司。于是白银大幅上扬，最高见4.美元。走势派指出，白银好淡的分水岭在4.22美元，已进入上升轨道。
But, in mid-May, a United States agency thought that silver was too much to supply, and in 1991 it was 481.1 million ounces, and that demand was 590 million ounces. So the silver stock rose sharply, with the highest figure being $4.4 dollars.
至于黄金，则是穷极思变。大部份机构投资者组合已没有黄金，美国大规模互惠基金Kemper上月解散属下的黄金基金。买卖黄金矿股票的华盛顿Spokane证券交易所宣布暂时停业，等等。人们终于开始反向操作，令金价反弹。
Most institutional investor portfolios no longer have gold, and the US large-scale Reciprocal Fund Kemper dissolved its gold fund last month. The Washington Spokane Stock Exchange, which deals in gold mines, announced a temporary suspension, and so on.
还有一个“恐惧指数”也有意思。美国的一位投资顾问根据美联储存金时价与美元(M3)供应量的关系，制成一项恐惧指数。五月底盎司金价360.75 美元，美联储存金二亿六千一百九十万盎司，M3发行量为四十亿七千六百万，等于每百美元含金值226美元，这便是恐惧指数2.26，它已接近尼克松在1971年宣布取消金本位创下的恐惧指数2点的纪录。美元含金量2.26%，意味着其余97.7%美元都是无中生有靠美国政府信用支持，而美国政府负债累累，这97.74美元全是借贷而来。于是，人们抛美元买黄金。恐惧指数的最高点是10点，正在1980年黄金历史天价时。
An investment consultant in the United States made a fear index based on the current value of the United States Federal Reserve deposit against the supply of the United States dollar (M3). At the end of May, the ounce value was 360.75 dollars, the US Federal Reserve was 260,900,000 ounces, and M3 was issued at $4.776 million, equal to $226 per $100, the gold value of which was 2.26, which was close to the record point 2 in Nixon’s 1971 announcement of the elimination of the gold standard. The dollar, 2.26 per cent, meant that the remaining 97.7 per cent of the dollar was unsupported by the credit of the United States Government, and that the US Government’s debt was overstretched.
1994年10月8日：英国著名的裁缝街的西装，数百年来的价格都是五、六盎司黄金的水准，是黄金购买力历久不变的明证。盎司金价若突破396美元，下一个目标是406美元，此关一破，黄金牛市便告诞生，可看1200美元。
8 October 1994: For hundreds of years, the price of five or six ounces of gold in the well-known British tailors’ street suit has been evidence of the constant purchasing power of gold. If the ounce of gold breaks through $396, the next target is $406, and once it breaks down, the Golden Cow City will be born at $1,200.
1996年2月5日：上周五盎司金价一度升达418.5美元，打破了1993年高价409美元，技术专家认为，此关一破，金价有机会破445美元。
5 February 1996: Last week's five ounces of gold rose to $418.5, breaking the 1993 high value of $409, which, according to the technical experts, was a break-up and an opportunity to break the price of $445.
各国央行不但卖金，而且租金。卖金方面，最高的是1992年卖了六百吨，1995估计为三千吨。金商看淡未来金价，因此设法向储存大量黄金的中央银行租金，租期三年至五年不等，然后在市场沽出。对金矿主而言，这不过是把三五年后的产金以当前价格卖出，等于把未来利润先行兑现，而央行则“盘活”了资产。据英伦银行12月上旬公布的数据，仅伦敦金商就向央行租借一千五百吨。
For gold miners, this is merely selling three or five-year-old gold at the current price, which amounts to cashing future profits, while the central bank “cooks” its assets. According to data released by the Bank of England in early December, London gold merchants alone leased 1,500 tons of gold from the central bank.
若不算央行和售金，其它早已供不应求。1995年和1994年其金产量差不多，同为二千七百八十七吨，而消耗量在四万吨水平，黄金赤字在一千一百吨至一千二百吨之间。
If central banks and gold sales were not included, the supply of other goods would have been in short supply. In 1995 and 1994, its gold production was similar, at 27,877 tons, while its consumption was 40,000 tons, with a gold deficit ranging from 1,100 tons to 1,200 tons.
1997年7月8日：西方各中央银行有秩序地消减黄金储备。资料显示，荷兰央行直接沽金，比利时铸造金币变相售金，瑞士央行计划分期出售约值五十亿美元黄金，建立“大屠杀黄金”，以示该国二次大战期间大做纳粹生意的悔意。上周四，澳洲公布今年上半年陆续卖出约值十七亿美元的黄金，虽然售金量不大，却占该国黄金储备的三分之二，说明不再把黄金视为主要货币和储备。澳洲居南非、美国之后，是世界第三大产金国。
8 July 1997: Western central banks cut gold reserves in an orderly manner. According to data, the Dutch central bank is selling gold directly, Belgium is casting gold, and the Swiss central bank plans to sell gold in instalments worth about $5 billion, creating “holocaust gold” to show remorse for the country’s Nazi business during World War II. Last Thursday, Australia announced that it was selling around $1.7 billion worth of gold for the first half of the year, which, though modest, accounted for two thirds of the country’s gold reserves, suggesting that gold was no longer considered the main currency and reserve.
结果，盎司黄金美元价在370至400美元之间徘徊约两年之久，上周四突然在纽约市场急挫，周五伦敦跌至324.75美元，为1985年以来的最低水平。
As a result, the dollar price of ounce gold hovered between $370 and $400 for about two years, and the sudden collapse of the New York market last Thursday fell to $324.75 on Friday in London, the lowest level since 1985.
1998年3月24日：每盎司金价在1月9日跌至278.7美元的最低价，昨在294美元水平徘徊。黄金盛极而衰，其市价已低于平均生产成本每盎司315美元，世界有一半金矿亏本，相继停工势所难免，这令过去二年出现新出土黄金供不应求，所提炼的黄金供应比需求少约一千吨，只是由于央行抛金及民间藏金在金价前景看淡之下纷纷沽出，以致金价下挫之势未能扭转。
24 March 1998: On 9 January, the price of every ounce of gold fell to the lowest price of $278.7, hovering yesterday at $294. Gold has fallen, its market price has fallen below the average production cost of $315 per ounce, and half of the world’s gold mines have been lost and successive cuts in gold production have been inevitable. This has led to a shortage of fresh gold in the last two years, and the proposed gold supply is about 1,000 tons less than the demand, just as the central bank’s gold drops and the popular treasures are pouring out under the prospect of gold prices have not been reversed.
加拿大御金道金矿计划大规模铸造“创世纪金币”，计划用一千吨至二千五百吨黄金造此币。如果计划落实，将是耗金量最大的金币铸造，因为以往南非克鲁格兰金币一共耗金一千四百吨，1986年日本裕仁金币用金量一百八十二吨，1991年明仁金币用金六十吨。对黄金市场而言，这是一大利好。2012年各国央行售金量是八百二十五吨，“创世纪金币”将可完全消化。
The Canadian Royal Gold Artefact gold mining scheme, which massively forges the Genesis Gold coin, plans to make it with 1,000 to 2,500 tons of gold. If implemented, it would be the gold coin that used to consume the largest amount of gold, amounting to 1400 tons in South Africa, 1,82 tons in 1986 and 60 tons in 1991 in Japan. This would be a great advantage for the gold market. In 2012, central banks sold 825 tons of gold, and the Genesis Gold coin would be completely digested.
1999年7月6日：英伦银行周二以每盎司261.2美元售出二十五吨黄金，筹集得二亿九百八十万美元，这是英伦银行近二十年的首次拍卖，也是该行五次拍卖的第一次。自英国公布计划在未来三至五年出售其七百十五吨黄金储备的四百十五吨以来，金价已跌逾一成。消息宣布后金价随即跌破 260美元水平，达256.4美元，创下20年新低。
6 July 1999: On Tuesday, the Bank of England sold 25 tons of gold at $261.2 per ounce, raising $29.8 million, the first auction in the last two decades and the first in five auctions in the Bank of England. Gold prices have fallen by more than 10% since the United Kingdom announced plans to sell 45 tons of its 715 tons of gold reserves over the next three to five years.
黄金不会人间蒸发、磨损的“永恒价值”，为市场留下祸根。因为数千年来存世的黄金估计达十二万五千吨，其中约三分之一在各国央行的金库里，其余为私人藏金和首饰物。
Gold does not evaporate and wear away “forever” values, leaving the market with its roots. For thousands of years, gold is estimated to be 125,000 tons, about one third of which is in the vaults of central banks, and the rest are private treasures and jewellery.
一边是央行大肆抛售(瑞士央行也计划估售一千三百吨左右黄金)，另一方面金矿主开采数量有增无减。原因有二：第一是黄金单位生产成本下降， 1998年跌20%，每盎司平均美元生产成本只有206美元；第二是矿务公司已发展出“产铜为主产金为副”的生产模式，估计副产的黄金1995年占黄金总产量的9%，2005年将增至17%。黄金随黄铜而来，意味矿场愈来愈不会把黄金产量与价格挂构。
On the one hand, the central bank sold the gold at large (the Swiss central bank also plans to sell about 1,300 tons of gold), and on the other hand, gold miners are mining more and more. For two reasons: first, the cost of gold unit production fell by 20% in 1998, with an average dollar cost of $206 per ounce; and secondly, mining companies have developed a “copper-producing side” production model, estimated that by-product gold accounted for 9% of total gold production in 1995 and 17% in 2005.
有人已预估下世纪初金价见150美元，金价真的不知伊于胡底了。作为贷币商品甚至纯粹商品，黄金已失去“长期持有”的价值，这是投资者不得不承认和留意的。
Some have estimated the price of gold at $150 at the beginning of the next century, and the price of gold is no longer known. As a loan currency or even a mere commodity, gold has lost its “long-term holding” value, which investors have to acknowledge and pay attention to.
市场的供求与市场价格相互作用。
Market supply and demand interact with market prices.
从实际需求看，黄金是供不应求的，每年大约有一千吨的缺口。但各国央行的储备买卖却是追涨杀跌，让黄金市场变得求不应供。“黄金跌得愈低，官金出售的可能性愈大”的规律。随着黄金价格的上扬，从1982年的375美元涨到1987年股市崩盘后的500美元左右，就少有中央银行出售黄金。之后，黄金再次转势，到1992年时降到350美元左右，这段期间各央行总共兑清了五百吨黄金。从1992年到1999年，黄金跌到300美元以下，各国央行总共出售了三千吨左右黄金，一年约四百吨。各国央行最后发现敌人就是它们自己。只要中央银行持有的官金过剩，每次官金出售就会成为头条新闻，金价就会下跌，出售所得相应减少。
As gold prices rise, from $375 in 1982 to around $500 after the stock market collapse in 1987, less gold is sold by the central bank. After that, gold re-emerges to around $350 in 1992, with central banks making a total of 500 tons of gold. From 1992 to 1999, gold fell to less than $300, with central banks selling around 3,000 tons of gold, about 400 tons a year.
下跌的金价可能刺激了它的实际需求。1990年，用于首饰和电子工业的黄金比1980年高出50%以上，比1994年高出三分之一左右。单单用于首饰生产的黄金就比1850年高出一百倍，由于人口在此期间只成长了五倍，因此，平均每人的金饰消费增加了二十倍。
In 1990, gold for jewellery and electronics was more than 50 per cent higher than in 1980, or about one third higher than in 1994. Gold for jewellery alone was 100 times higher than in 1850, and as the population grew only five times over that period, the average human consumption of gold was 20 times higher.
1999年8月26日，每盎司金价跌至251.9美元，创下二十年来低位，在底部横盘两年后，于2001年再次发力上攻，到2003年年底为414美元，涨幅达60%。
On 26 August 1999, the price per ounce of gold fell to $251.9, a 20-year low, and again in 2001, two years after the bottom of the round, it was $414 by the end of 2003, an increase of 60 per cent.
2022年黄金会跌还是涨？
关于比特币，有点复杂，我们需要一点一点讲。
It's a bit complicated about bitcoin, and we need to talk a little bit.
比特币在2008年出自于中本聪之手，中本聪是个神秘人物，在网站上发布了比特币白皮书《比特币：一种点对点的电子现金系统》后，便销声匿迹，大有“昔人已乘黄鹤去，此地空余黄鹤楼。黄鹤一去不复返，白云千载空悠悠。”之意。中本聪的神秘，也同样造就了比特币之神秘，芸芸众生往往对于神秘的东西都有一种莫名的敬畏。如果说中本聪是你邻居家张大妈的儿子二狗子，上了大学读了博以后用计算机捣鼓出来的东西，你是不是对比特币的印象会大打折扣？
Bitcoin came out of the middle-blind hands in 2008, and he was a mysterious figure. After the Bitcoin White Paper "bitcoin: a point-to-point electronic cash system" was published on the website, he disappeared. Mostly, "The old man has gone on a yellow crane, and there are yellow cranes in the area." When the yellow cranes go back, the white clouds are emptied." The middle-brained mystery, too, created a bitcoin mystery.
比特币是一种数字加密货币，是计算机生成的一串复杂代码，新比特币可以通过预设的程序制造，名曰挖矿。所谓“挖矿”是用计算机解决一项复杂的数学问题，随后比特币网络会新生成一定量的比特币作为区块奖励。由于程序的限定，它的总数量将被永久限制在2100万个。另外，和法币不同，比特币是一种去中心化的设计，它没有一个集中的发行方，谁都能参与生产比特币。
Bitcoin is a digital cryptic currency, a complex code generated by computers that can be made of predefined programs, known for mining. The so-called “mining” is a computer solution to a complex mathematical problem, and the Bitcoin network will then generate a new amount of bitcoin as a block reward. Due to programme limitations, its total number will be permanently limited to 21 million. And, unlike French, bitcoin is a decentralized design, and it has no centralized issuer, who can participate in the production of bitcoins.
我们总结一下：比特币是一种虚拟货币，无中心发行机方，数量有限，可交易。
Let us sum up: Bitcoin is a virtual currency with no central distribution machine, limited in number, tradable.
为了搞清楚这个问题，我们需要先讨论些基本知识。
In order to be clear on this issue, we need to discuss some basic knowledge first.
第一个问题是：钱是什么东西？
The first question is: what is money?
其实世上本没有钱，孕育钱的母体是“交易”，也可以说“交易”是“货币”之母。在原始 社会 实现交换是通过以物易物的方式，比如我有一头牛换你两只羊，这时还远谈不上商品经济。后来随着农牧经济的发展，产生了 社会 生产的分工，自给自足以外，很多食品物资盈余了出来，交换的需求也越来越强。
In fact, there is no money, and the mother who gives birth to it is the "trade" or the "trading" is the mother of the "money." In the original society, the trade is done in the form of a trade-off, for example, when I have a cow for two sheep, and it is not much to talk about the commodity economy. As the agro-pastoral economy develops, there is a division of labour between social production and self-sufficiency.
以物易物有很多弊端，其一、一头牛可能并不是换两只羊，而是可以换两只半羊，但半只羊是无法交割；其二、你有牛，我有羊，你想要我的羊，但我可能并不想要你的牛，我想要的是张三的猪，但张三并不想要我的羊，也不想要你的牛，他想要李四的犁。
One or one of the cows may not be for two sheep, but for two and a half sheep, but half of the sheep cannot be cut; the second, you have a cow, I have a sheep, you want my sheep, but I may not want one of your cows, but Zhang San does not want one of my sheep, he does not want one of Li's ploughs.
由于以物易物太不方便了，人们就找那些稀有且易携带易保存的东西来作为交易的媒介。石头、贝壳、金属都充当过这种交易媒介，再到后来的金银、铜钱、纸币，钱就这样生成了。说白了，钱就是实现交易的工具，这是它的核心职能，这是它从母体里催生出来的缘由。
Because it's too easy to trade, people look for rare and easy to carry. Rocks, shells, metals all act as such, and then money comes from gold, copper, banknotes. Money is a tool to make a deal, and that is its core function, and that is the reason it was born out of the matrix.
当然，钱还有另外两大职能，计价方式和价值储存。计价单位是它的第二个职能，这也是作为交易工具的必要条件，一头牛2000元，一只羊1000元，我们就知道了什么是贵，什么是便宜，我们就知道了一头牛等于两只羊。人们常说的“存钱”是指价值存储手段，也是钱的第三个职能，我用一头牛换2000元，可我现在不想吃羊肉，我就会把这2000元存起来，等我想吃羊肉时再去买羊。但无论存多久，最终的目的都是希望买买买，存储只是在时间维度实现交换的递延。而货币也不是唯一的价值储存手段，聪明的人往往喜欢用非货币资产来存储财富。
Money, of course, has two other functions, price-based and value-storage. The unit is its second function, and it is a sine qua non for a trade tool: 2,000 dollars for a cow and 1,000 dollars for a sheep, and we know what is expensive and what is cheap, and we know what is equal to two sheep.
尽管货币在经济中有三种职能，其最核心的职能依然是交换的媒介，它是实现交易的工具。为了加深印象，我把定语去掉，然后多说几遍，“货币是工具，货币是工具，货币是工具，钱是工具，钱是工具，钱是工具。”
Although there are three functions of money in the economy, its most central function remains the medium of exchange, which is a tool for making transactions. In order to deepen my impression, I take the word out and say it several times, “Money is a tool, money is a tool, money is a tool, money is a tool, money is a tool, money is a tool.”
第二个问题： 社会 需要多少钱？
The second question: how much does society need?
钱是交易的媒介，钱是一种工具，作为工具，自然是够用就好。这就和我们吃饭用的筷子一样，筷子是吃饭的工具，它可以把菜送到你的嘴里，五口人用五双筷子就够了，顶多再加两双作为备用。
Money is a medium of trade, money is a tool, it's a tool, it's a tool. It's like the chopsticks we eat, chopsticks are a tool to eat, it can send food into your mouth, five chopsticks for five people, at least two more as a backup.
一个国家需要多少钱，取决于需要交易的商品数量和钱的使用效率，而并不是越多越好。这个想必是很容易理解的，我们简化一下这个模型演绎一番。比如一个封闭的世界只有3个人，他们是张三李四王五，有一天张三付了1000金换了李四一头牛，1000金到了李四手里，六个月后李四拿这1000金买了王五的两只羊，钱又到了王五手里，又过了半年，王五用这1000金买了张三三头猪，这1000金又回到了张三手里。这个封闭的世界里只有这1000金，一年之中这1000金使用了三次，被交易的商品为一头牛两只羊三头猪，总共价值3000金。假如这个封闭的世界中一年需要交易的商品只有这一头牛两只羊三头猪，一年的交易也只需要这三次，那这1000金作为媒介就可以满易的需求了。结论就是，一年中有3000金的商品需要交易，钱的使用效率为一年三次，那1000金的货币量就够了。
One country needs a lot of money, depending on the quantity of goods to be traded and the efficiency of the money, not as much as the better. This is easy to understand, and we can simplify the model. For example, there are only three people in a closed world, which is only three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three. Six months later, Li buys two, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three.
以上只是个极简模型，但任何复杂的理论都是由简单而生的，我们往往有时候沉迷于这茫茫噪杂的世界，而忘记了最本质的东西。“道生一，一生二，二生三，三生万物。” 每日匆匆奔走于万物之中，很容易身心疲惫，思维变成了从复杂到简单，颠倒了思考的顺序，而忘了道为何物。
These are very simple models, but any complex theory is born out of simplicity, and we tend to be obsessed with this world of discomfort and forget what is the essence of it. "Dao is born one, live two, two, three." Roughly running into everything, it is easy to get tired, to think from complexity to simplicity, to inverting the sequence of thinking, and to forget what it is.
一个国家需要多少钱，取决于需要交易的商品数量，和钱的使用效率。
The amount of money a country needs depends on the quantity of goods to be traded and the efficiency of the use of the money.
还是以上的封闭模型，我们做个衍化，假如这个封闭的世界里1000金变成了2000金，会发生什么？这时候一头牛的价格就从1000金变成了2000金，两只羊的价格也从1000金变成了2000金，三头猪的价格也从1000金变成了2000金，这个封闭世界并没有更富裕，财富依然只有这一头牛两只羊三头猪，可是这时张三李四王五都宣称他们拥有的财富从1000金增加到了2000金。这时商品价格的增长叫通货膨胀。
So what happens if the price of one cow goes from 1,000 to 2,000, the price of two sheep goes from 1,000 to 2,000, and the price of three pigs goes from 1,000 to 2,000, and the price of three pigs goes from 1,000 to 2,000. The closed world is not richer. The wealth of this cow is still just two sheep and three pigs, but then Wang Li and Five claim that they have an increase in wealth from 1,000 to 2,000.
说起通货膨胀，不得不提一下曾经人人都是亿万富翁的津巴布韦。有一种通胀叫津巴布韦通胀，那简直是超级超级恶性通货膨胀，一张面额1000万津巴布韦元的纸钞，只能换到1.5美元，而在津巴布韦买一只鸡要1300万津巴布韦元。
When it comes to inflation, one has to mention Zimbabwe, where everyone used to be a billionaire. There is an inflation called Zimbabwe inflation, which is a super virulent inflation, with a banknote of 10 million Zimbabwean dollars in exchange for only $1.50, while Zimbabwe buys a chicken for 13 million Zimbabwean dollars.
还是以上的例子，我们假设张三有铸币权，张三买了李四的牛，付出1000金，张三这时没钱了，于是张三开动印钞机又印了1000金，拿着1000金买了王五的两只羊，这时流通的货币变成了2000金，而物价变为了一头牛价格2000金，两只羊价格2000金，李四和王五每人手里1000金，这时李四想把自己卖给张三的那头牛给买回来，发现买不起了，1000金只能买半头牛了；王五也想把自己卖给张三的那两只羊买回来，但发现手里的1000金只能买回一只羊了。李四和王五手里的钱不值钱了，财富被有铸币权的张三无情的掠夺了。
In the same way, we assumed that Zhang San had the right to cast the coin, Zhang San had bought Li's cattle, paid 1,000 gold, Zhang San had no money, and then he had printed another 1,000 gold with his three-opening cashmarks, and bought two sheep from Wang 5 with 1,000 gold. The money in circulation turned into 2,000 gold, and the price turned into 2,000 gold from a cow, 2,000 gold from two sheep, 1,000 gold from each of Li's and Wang's five, when Li wanted to buy back the cow he sold to Zhang San and found that he could only buy half a cow; Wang also wanted to buy back the two sheep he sold to Zhang 3.
以国家为例，铸币权在央行手里，普天之下莫非王土，国家没有掠夺人民财富的动机，央行的印钞机也是相对节制的，印多少钱取决于GDP的增长和货币政策的松紧。
In the case of the country, where the right to cast the coin is in the hands of the central bank, where there is no incentive to plunder the wealth of the people, and where the bank’s printing machines are relatively modest, how much depends on GDP growth and monetary policy easing.
再重复一次，一个国家需要多少钱，取决于需要交易的商品数量，和钱的使用效率。而在一国正常的运转下，在常态下，在十几亿人的正常的经济活动中，钱的使用效率可以被认为是恒定的。所以我们通常可以说，一个国家需要多少钱，取决于需要交易的商品数量。
Once again, how much a country needs, depending on the quantity of goods to be traded, and the efficiency with which it is used. And, under normal operations, in normal times, in the normal economic activity of billions of people, the efficiency with which money is used can be considered constant.
我们再说一遍，一个国家需要多少钱，取决于需要交易的商品数量。GDP是什么？一国的GDP增长1%，可以粗略的认为一国多出了1%的需要交易的商品和服务，所以在无通胀的情况下，M2，即广义货币量也增加1%就可以了。
Again, how much a country needs to trade is dependent on the number of goods it needs to trade. What is GDP? A country’s GDP growth of 1 per cent can be roughly assumed to add 1 per cent to the goods and services it needs to trade, so without inflation, M2, i.e., an increase of 1 per cent in the size of the broader currency.
但一般来说，M2的增长率会略高于GDP的增长，因为适度的通胀对整个 社会 并没有什么坏处，反而会刺激经济的发展。我们知道通胀会导致大家手里的钱不值钱了，反过来就是物价上涨了；假如货币的增长少于GDP的增速，可能会导致通缩，通缩的意思是大家手里的钱更值钱了，反过来就是物价下跌了。可能有人会说物价下跌不是好事吗？我们可以买的东西就更多了啊，其实远没有这么简单，假如你开了个工厂，生产铁锹，原材料就是钢材，你和商店签了合同，一把铁锹卖20元钱，可以赚1元钱，这时你发现钢材在不断降价，这时一把铁锹可以赚2元了，你很开心，你想反正商店每年向你买的铁锹数量都是一定的，我何不过段时间再去买钢材，那时钢材应该会更便宜，那样我每把铁锹赚到利润就更多了，所以你给商店打电话“喂，老王啊，铁锹我晚两个月交货哈，没办法，体谅体谅”。所以通缩会导致大家消极生产，因为物价下跌意味着手里的钱会越来越值钱，所以大家倾向于把钱拿在手里，而不是去促成交易。再换个简单点的例子，如果房价一直在温和下跌，你还会着急买房吗？大家都会持币在手，等着房子跌得更低，越跌越不会买。反而是每次房价上涨时，大家争先恐后的买房。
But in general, M2 growth rates are slightly higher than GDP growth, because moderate inflation is not bad for the society as a whole, but stimulates economic development. We know that inflation leads to a priceless price for money, which in turn is higher; if money grows less rapidly than GDP, it may lead to deflation, which means that money is worth two dollars, which in turn is lower. You're happy that the price of iron that you buy from a store every year is lower. I'm not going to buy steel, I'm going to buy steel, I'm going to buy steel, I'm going to make it cheaper, and I'm going to sell it, and I'm going to make a profit for every iron, so you're going to call the shop, and you're going to buy two dollars, and you're going to buy two dollars, and you're going to buy it, and you're going to sell it, and you're going to lose it.
所以温和的通胀对经济的发展是有利的，通胀多少合适？一般认为1%-2.5%是相对不错的区间。每年物价上涨在2.5%以下被认为是不知不觉的通胀，无形间可以使大家感觉多赚了一些，因为提高物价可以使厂商多得一点利润，以刺激厂商投资的积极性，还可以使工人的平均工资也多一丢丢，刺激员工的积极性。而温和的通胀也不会导致 社会 动荡，温和的通胀能像润滑油一样刺激经济的发展，也就是所谓的“润滑油政策”。
So moderate inflation is good for economic development, and what is appropriate for inflation? It is generally assumed that 1-2.5% is a relatively good space. Price increases of less than 2.5% per year are considered unwitting inflation, and intangibles can make you feel a little more profitable, because higher prices can give producers a little more profit to boost their incentives to invest, as well as the average wages of workers to be lost and the workers to be motivated. And mild inflation will not lead to social unrest, and moderate inflation can stimulate economic development like lubricant oil, the so-called “lubricant oil policy.”
总结：一个国家需要多少钱，取决于需要交易的商品数量。钱发多了就会导致通胀，钱发少了就会导致通缩，而温和的通胀就像润滑油一样，是对经济的运转有利的。
Summing up: How much a country needs, depending on the number of goods to be traded. More money leads to inflation, less money leads to deflation, and mild inflation, like lubricant oil, is beneficial to the functioning of the economy.
第三个问题：为什么遇到如疫情这样的危机要印更多的钱？
The third question is: Why do you have to print more money in a crisis like the epidemic?
2020年是特殊的一年，新冠病毒突袭，武汉封城，全国人民随即进入了轰轰烈烈的抗疫之中，春节后第一个交易日A股大跌7.72%，央行立即施行了宽松的货币政策，向 社会 注入流动性。进入3月份，新冠病毒在欧美国家蔓延，道琼斯指数从28000点下挫到18000点，纳斯达克从9000多点下挫至6000多点，美联储随即启动了印钞机，甚至推出了无限量量化宽松政策。
The year 2020 was a special year, when the new coronary virus stormed the city of Wuhan, and the country’s population then entered a devastating epidemic, with the A share falling by 7.72% on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, and the central bank immediately imposed loose monetary policy to inject liquidity into society. In March, the new coronary virus spread across the countries of Europe and the United States, the Dow Jones index fell from 28,000 to 18,000, and the NASDAQ fell from more than 9,000 to 6,000, and the Fed launched a bank printing machine, even with an unlimited quantitative easing policy.
不止是今年，在2008年美国的次贷危机爆发之时，美联储也是通过印钞机重启了美国经济，后来迎来了浩浩荡荡的美股10年慢牛。
More than this year, at the time of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008, the Fed had restarted the United States economy through a banknote printing machine, which had subsequently ushered in a ravaging American stock of slow cows for 10 years.
大家有没有想过，为什么每次危机来临，经济的救援总是先从印钞机开始？钱为什么能解决这些问题？
Have you ever wondered why every time a crisis strikes, economic relief always starts with a cash printing machine? Why can money solve these problems?
上一个问题我们说道，一个国家需要多少钱取决于要交易的商品的数量和钱的使用效率。因为在常态下，一个国家的钱的使用效率可以看作是恒定的，所以我们简化表述为一个国家需要多少钱取决于需要交易的商品数量。说到这里，可能已经有小伙伴发现了印钞这个问题的答案，秘密就在我们刚刚说的这句话之中，“在常态下，一个国家的钱的使用效率可以看作是恒定的。” 是的，在常态下，在常态下。2008年的次贷危机和今年的疫情冲击，这属于非常态，当经济秩序、金融系统受到外部冲击时，钱的使用效率会急剧的下降，这时钱突然不够用了。
In the last question, we say how much a country needs to depend on the quantity of goods to be traded and the efficiency with which money is used. Because the efficiency of the use of money in a country can be regarded as constant in a normal way, we simplify it to say how much a country needs to depend on the volume of goods to be traded.
我想这是相对比较容易理解的事情，只不过很多人可能没太想过这个问题。
I think that's a relatively easy thing to understand, except that a lot of people may not have thought too much about it.
我记得欧美疫情蔓延时，有个朋友问过我一个问题，这个问题是“黄金不是避险资产吗？为什么美股大跌，黄金也跟着大跌？不是说乱世买黄金吗？”
I remember a friend who asked me a question when the epidemic spread in Europe and America: "Isn't gold a hedge asset? Why does the stock of the United States fall, and the gold falls? Isn't that the world buys gold?"
我是这样回答的，简单一点说，当你由于某个事件恐慌时（比如疫情），你会怎么做？答案是抢口罩，抢消毒液，去超市抢日用品和食品。大家都这么做，就会造成口罩和消毒液的流动性危机，口罩和消毒液不够了，这时口罩和消毒液就会涨价。这个说的是商品市场。
So I say, simply, what do you do when you panic because of an event (e.g. an outbreak? The answer is to grab masks, disinfectants, go to supermarkets to grab daily goods and food. Everyone does so in a way that causes a liquidity crisis with masks and disinfectants, and there is not enough masks and disinfectants, and then the masks and disinfectants are priced. This is the commodity market.
在资本市场上，各个参与者遇到恐慌会抢什么？答案是抢钱。因为怕自己的资金链断裂，因为该发的工资还得发，该还的债还得还，该付的房租还得付，不抢钱怎么行。钱怎么抢？就是拿手里的东西换钱啊。钱供不应求，钱的价格就会大涨，相对的表现就是大家的投资品价格就会大跌。钱陷入流动性危机，大家越抢不到，越恐慌，越要抢，宁可付出更高的代价。这和我们疫情时抢口罩是一个道理。
In the capital markets, the participants are scared of what to rob? The answer is to rob money. Because they fear that their money chains will break, because they pay their wages, they pay their debts, they pay their rent, and they don't steal their money. How do they rob money? The money is in exchange for money. The price of money will rise, and the price of investment will fall. The more money is in a liquidity crisis, the more panic, the more it will be, the more it will cost more.
为什么黄金这种避险资产也在跌？其实也是这个道理，现在大家缺的是钱，怕资金链断裂，公司要发工资还债，基金要应对大额赎回。卖什么换钱？手里有什么就卖什么啊！质量低的投资产品没人要，卖不出去，或者卖出去了也是极低的价格，割肉太狠，太心疼了。那卖什么呢？只能卖质量好的，至少打折轻一点，等危机过后再买回来，不至于亏太多。
Why is gold a hedge asset falling? That's the same thing. What's missing now is money, fearing a break in the money chain, the company's payback, and the fund's going to pay for it. What is sold in exchange for what is sold? No one wants anything, can't sell it, or sells it at a very low price, cut meat too hard, hurts. What is sold? It's good quality, at least a discount, and buy it back after the crisis is over.
讲到这里，我想为什么疫情期间要印更多的钱的问题大概已经清楚了。经济秩序和金融体系在遇到巨大冲击时，很多生意做不下去了，现金流入断了，但维持下去需要支出的钱却并没有少，企业和老百姓手里就需要储备更多的钱，以应对不时之需。这时大家就会抢钱，流动性好的资产的价格就会大跌，股市大跌又会加剧恐慌，从而形成踩踏。这时最好的方式就是增加钱的供应，所以印钱、降息、债务递延、免税等一系列政策都是在解决钱的流动性危机，帮助企业和老百姓脱困。
Here, I think the question of why more money should be printed during the epidemic is clear. When the economic order and financial system are hit by a huge shock, many businesses can’t do much, cash inflows are broken, but the money needed to sustain it is not too low, and businesses and the population need to reserve more money to meet their needs from time to time. That is when people rob money, the price of liquid assets falls, and the stock market falls further into panic, thus stepping on it. The best way to do so is to increase the supply of money, so that a range of policies, such as printing money, interest reductions, debt deferral, tax exemption, etc., are addressing the liquidity crisis of money, helping businesses and the population out of poverty.
钱也可以认为是经济运行的润滑油，当经济秩序受到冲击时，经济运行的摩擦成本急剧上升，润滑油突然就不够用了，这时释放流动性，注入润滑油是必须要做得事情，否则经济这台机器就会被烧坏，如果企业没有钱偿还债务、没有钱发工资，从而大量破产；老百姓领不到工资，困苦不堪；政府没有税收，公共服务停滞。这个国家可能会进入漫长的大萧条，从有序经济进入无序经济可能只需要几个月，而从无序建立起有序可能需要好多年。美国1929年的大萧条就是很好的例子。
Money can also be considered as a lubricant for the functioning of the economy, whose friction costs rise sharply when the economic order is hit and the lubricant is suddenly not enough. It is necessary to release liquidity and inject the lubricant, otherwise the economy’s machine will be burned down, and if businesses do not have the money to pay their debts and pay their wages, they will be heavily bankrupt; the general population does not receive wages, suffering; the government does not have taxes and public services stagnate. The country may enter a long depression, which may take only a few months from the orderly economy to the disorderly economy, and it may take many years to establish it. The US Great Depression of 1929 is a good example.
这个世界的价值来自于有序，企业的价值也来自于有序，机器的价值也来自于有序。企业的价值来源于合适的规章制度把合适的员工组织起来，通过合适的分工合作，利用合适的生产资料，生产出合适的产品，卖给合适的下游。这就是有序，正是因为有序，很多公司的净资产只有百亿，却可以撑起千亿的市值，因为这百亿的净资产通过有序的运营可以源源不断的创造财富。同样，机器的价值也来自于有序，仅仅一堆零件不能称之为机器。从无序到有序需要长时间的协调组织和调整，印钱救市就是为了防止从有序经济进入无序经济。美国大萧条之后，很多经济学家研究这段 历史 ，凯恩斯是其中的佼佼者，他提出当经济出现危难时，政府应该主动干预经济，防止经济进入无序状态，凯恩斯之后，只有金融危机，再无大萧条。
The value of the world comes from order, the value of businesses comes from order, and the value of machines comes from order. The value of an enterprise comes from the proper regulations that organize the right employees, work together through a proper division of labour, produce the right products, and sell them to the right downstream. It comes from order, precisely because, after the Great Depression in the United States, many companies have only 10 billion net assets, but they can sustain hundreds of billions of dollars in market value, because in times of economic distress, the net assets can generate wealth. Likewise, the value of machines comes from order, and just a bunch of parts cannot be called machines.
第四个问题：经过前面的铺垫，我们可以谈谈比特币为什么不能取代法币了？
Question number four: Through the pre-arrangement, we can talk about why bitcoin is not a substitute for French coins.
为了说明这个问题，我想把黄金的故事也快速过一遍。
To illustrate this, I would like to go over the story of gold quickly.
这句话是伟大的马克思所说，这句话如此精辟，以至于我的景仰之情如滔滔江水，连绵不绝！
That is what the great Marx said, and that is so fine that my sight is so full of love!
金银天然不是货币，这句话很容易理解，金银只不过是金属的一种，也是元素周期表中118个元素的其中之二。在盘古开天辟地时，它们就已经存在了，而这时女娲还没有造人，货币就更是无从谈起了。
Gold and silver are not natural currencies, and it is easy to understand that gold and silver are just one of the metals and two of the 118 elements in the table of elements. They already exist when the time has passed, and the money is impossible to talk about before the woman has made a man.
但是在 历史 发展的进程中，无论欧洲还是中华大地都不约而同的选择了金银作为货币。究其根本，这和金银天然的特性是分不开的。黄金作为金属，易延展，易切割，不易变质，开采成本高，数量有限。另外黄金天生高贵，这东西除了好看以外没什么其他用途，既不能制作生产工具，又不能作为生产材料，黄金是彻彻底底的**的身子，**的命。所以 历史 选择金银作为一般等价物，命也！
But in the course of history and development, neither Europe nor China chose gold and silver as a currency. At the root of this, it is inseparable from the natural nature of gold and silver. Gold is easy to extend, easy to cut, easy to deform, expensive to exploit, and limited in number. And gold is so precious that it can't be used for anything other than good-looking, neither as a means of production nor as a material of production, and gold is the life of a complete ** body. So history chooses gold and silver as a generic price, life!
2.纸币本是一张金银的收条
2. Banknotes are a receipt for gold and silver.
金银虽然天生丽质，是货币的天选之子。但金银携带起来还是不够方便，随着跨区贸易的发展，很多人把金银存到钱庄，钱庄就给这些人开个收条，今收到张三纹银一百两，张三拿着这张收条就可以从四川跑到山西，从山西的钱庄里把银两取出来，然后采购毛皮布料了。后来，大家觉得反正一百两纹银的收条到钱庄就能换一百两的纹银，换来换去挺麻烦的，很多商铺就直接接受收条作为货款了，慢慢地这些收条就流行开了，收条上也就不再署名字了，无论是谁拿着收条，都能到钱庄换钱。纸币就这样形成了，纸币是金银的影子，一百两的收条就有一百两的纹银。
Gold and silver, although natural, are the natural choice of money. But gold and silver are not easy to carry. As trade across the region develops, many people deposit the gold and silver to the money bank, and the money bank opens up a receipt for them. They now receive a silver one hundred taels of silver, and three picks it up from Sichuan to Shanxi, picks it out from Shanxi's money house, and then buys the fur. Then, it is thought that a silver and a silver and a silver and a silver and a silver and a silver and a silver and a silver and a silver and a silver and a silver and a silver.
3. 金本位制下的布雷顿森林体系
3. Bretton Woods system under the gold standard
二战结束的前夕，暴发户美国和老贵族英国组织一众小弟开始商量战后重建工作，各怀鬼胎的他们都把眼睛盯在了国际货币体系上。拥有国际货币的铸币权，这是多大的油水？英国搬出了大名鼎鼎的经济学泰斗凯恩斯，制定了“凯恩斯计划”，希望能从学术上震慑美国，让美国给点面子。但英国想多了，在现实面前装B不好使，学术不如腿粗，美国的“怀特计划”凭借美国拥有全球四分之三的黄金储备和强大的军事经济实力一举获胜。由于这次碰头会是在美国布雷顿森林举办的，所以这次拟定的国际货币体系又叫“布雷顿森林体系”
On the eve of the end of World War II, a group of American and old aristocrat British brothers began to talk about post-war reconstruction, each of whom had their eyes on the international monetary system. What kind of oil was it? Britain moved out of its famous economics, Tedo Keynes, to set up the Keynes Plan, hoping to deter America from academia.
布雷顿森林体系简要如下：美元与黄金挂钩，作为国际货币，35美元可兑换一盎司的黄金；其他国家货币与美元挂钩。
The Bretton Woods system is summarized as follows: the United States dollar is pegged to gold as an international currency and $35 is convertible to one ounce of gold; other national currencies are pegged to the United States dollar.
就这样黄金和美元紧紧地绑在了一起，美元成为了黄金的影子，有多少黄金就能发行多少美元。但是我们在第三章里讲过，需要多少货币取决于需要用这种货币交易的商品数量，所以神奇的事情发生了，由于黄金的数量是有限的，发行的美元远远不够市场交易的总需求。
So that gold and the dollar are tied together, the dollar becomes the shadow of gold, and the amount of gold that can be released is as much as the dollar. But, as we said in chapter III, the amount of money needed depends on the volume of goods that need to be traded in that currency, so the amazing thing is that, because the amount of gold is limited, the dollar that is released is far less than the total demand for market transactions.
那怎么办呢？美国的做法是去，美元不够就印呗，于是越来越多的美元流通到了市场上。随着美元越印越多，很多国家坐不住了，“你开动印钞机就把我们物美价廉的东西换走了，拿张纸糊弄鬼呢？你美国有没有那么多黄金啊？万一有一天这张纸不好使了可咋整？”于是乎很多国家开始拿美元去美国那换黄金，美国还是挺仗义的，你来换，我就换给你，谁让咱在布雷顿森林的碰头会上拍过胸脯呢。可是来换黄金的小弟们越来越多，美国慢慢也坐不住了，地主家也没有余粮了啊。1971年尼克松总统正式耍赖了，停止履行外国政府用美元兑换黄金的义务，从此美元与黄金脱钩，布雷顿森林体系崩溃。
What do we do? The American approach is to go, the dollar is not good enough, so more and more dollars are flowing into the market. As more dollars are printed, many countries can't sit.
4. 黄金与美元因爱生恨
4. Gold and dollar hate for love
美元与黄金脱钩以后，机缘巧合之下，美元盯上了石油，这段 历史 我们不做具体介绍，总之，在美国的霸权之下，石油作为国际贸易量很大的必需品必须要使用美元进行结算。另外，不是美元霸道，也是世界上其他的货币不争气，竟没有一种货币能叫板的，于是虽然布雷顿森林体系立的牌坊碎了一地，但美元依然是美元，国际贸易大多还是离不开它。没有了黄金的束缚，放飞自我的美元，令美国因祸得福！
After the dollar was decoupled from gold, the dollar, by chance, was on oil, and history, we didn't go into the details, and, in short, under the hegemony of the United States, oil had to be settled with the dollar as a vital requirement for international trade. And, not the dollar, but the rest of the world's currencies, there was no currency to call it, so, while the Bretton Woods system had broken down, the dollar was still the dollar, and international trade was mostly inseparable from it. Without gold, freeing itself of the dollar would be a blessing for the United States.
说完美元，再说黄金，自从与美元解绑后，黄金与美元因爱生恨，两者的走势呈现出了很强的负相关。美元跌，黄金涨；美元涨，黄金跌。过去几十年，黄金价格和美元指数的负相关关系平均位于70%以上。
After talking about the dollar and gold, gold and the dollar have shown a strong negative correlation between their movement and their hate for love since they were released from the dollar. The dollar has fallen, the gold has risen, the dollar has risen, and the gold has fallen. In the past few decades, the negative relationship between the price of gold and the dollar index has averaged more than 70 per cent.
5. 比特币是数字黄金吗？
5. Is Bitcoin digital gold?
这次比特币大涨，很多人认为是黄金属性，因为美国大量印钞，世界势必走向弱美元周期，黄金在布雷顿森林体系崩溃以后，一直被认为是抗通胀的资产，而事实也的确如此。一般来说，美元强，黄金弱，美元弱，黄金强。所以这次，很多声音说比特币是数字黄金，大涨是因为美元的大放水。
This huge rise in bitcoins, many of whom consider it to be gold, because the United States printed a lot of money, the world is bound to move towards a weak dollar cycle, and gold has been considered an anti-inflationary asset since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, and it is true. Generally speaking, the dollar is strong, the dollar is weak, the dollar is weak, and the gold is strong. So, this time, many voices say that bitcoins are digital gold, and the increase is the result of the dollar’s massive flooding.
我同意现在的比特币上涨带有黄金属性，但是比特币真的是数字黄金吗？这句话我尚不敢苟同。
I agree with the gold attributes of the current bitcoin rise, but is bitcoin really digital gold? I do not yet agree.
黄金乃货币的天选之子，黄金无国界，不分种族，世界上的每一个人都喜欢黄金，每一个人都承认黄金的价值。然比特币不是，只有币圈的人由衷地承认比特币的价值，而那些炒币的人只不过是为了发财，博傻而已。
Gold is the natural son of money, gold without borders, and every person in the world likes gold without distinction, and everyone recognizes its value. But Bitcoin is not, but the only one in the currency circle recognizes the value of Bitcoin, and those who make it are just fools to make money.
黄金有其商品属性，其色泽美丽贵重，常被用于各种饰品，金项链、金戒指。然比特币没有这样的价值。
Gold has its commercial properties, its colours are beautiful and valuable, and is often used in a variety of ornaments, gold necklaces, gold rings. Bitcoin has no such value.
黄金市场是全球性市场，流动性强，如果你有黄金，不愁卖不出去。另外没有任何个人或财团有足够的资金能够操控全球黄金市场，因此黄金价格能够一直真实的反映实际的供求关系。然比特币市场不是，很多国家禁止比特币交易，比特币市场的流动性也很差，很多时候是有价无市，如果你手里有大量比特币，要迅速变现的话，恐怕不那么容易。
The gold market is global, mobile, and if you have gold, you can't sell it. No other individual or consortium has enough money to control the global gold market, so gold prices can always reflect real supply and demand.
各国央行都储备了大量黄金，可以用于调控国际收支和国际金价。各国政府对于黄金的态度也是作为价值储备的，如有战乱或国际动荡，很多法币在国际贸易中可能就买不到物资了，但黄金一定可以。我并不认为比特币有这样的天然属性。
The central banks have large reserves of gold that can be used to regulate balance-of-payments and international gold prices. The attitude of governments to gold is also a value reserve, and many French coins may not buy goods in international trade if war or international turmoil occurs, but gold does.
再说各国政府的态度，中国早就禁止了比特币，关闭了比特币交易市场。美国政府对加密货币市场也持谨慎态度，俄罗斯也不看好比特币，韩国拒绝承认比特币的合法地位。多国政府都提醒，虚拟数字货币风险很大，也是不法分子利用其进行、洗钱的工具，警告投资者谨慎投资比特币。总结就是大部分政府都不承认比特币的货币地位，而作为投资品来说，又提醒大家谨慎参与。
Moreover, China has long banned bitcoin and closed the bitcoin market. The US government is also cautious about the crypto-currency market, Russia is not interested in bitcoin, and South Korea refuses to recognize bitcoin’s legitimacy.
比特币的价值来源于共识，即一部分人认为其有价值，但这种共识的覆盖面还是太小了。黄金的共识为每一个国家，每一个人，比特币想达到这样的共识范围，太难太难。
Bitcoin’s value stems from the consensus that some people think it's worth, but its coverage is too small. The gold consensus is that every country, every person, bitcoin, is too difficult to reach.
我们为什么从货币讲到黄金，再一一对比它们与比特币的区别？因为我一直坚信，区块链只是比特币的形式，而其本质，在 历史 的长河当中肯定出现过。每次大家沉迷于泡沫的疯狂之时，总有一部分人说这次不一样，然而每一次都能在 历史 中找到影子。所谓的去中心化，黄金又何尝不是去中心化的？所谓的稀缺性，稀缺性的东西多了，17世纪风靡荷兰的郁金香何尝不是？
Why do we talk about gold from the currency and compare it to the bitcoin? Because I've always believed that the chain of blocks is just the form of bitcoin, the essence of which must have appeared in the rivers of history. Every time you get obsessed with bubbles, a part of you says it's different, but every time you find a shadow in history. Why not centralize it?
对的，郁金香的球茎，如果让我说比特币在本质上和 历史 上的那种东西最像？我肯定会说是郁金香的球茎。
Right, tulips' runners, if I say bitcoins are essentially and historically the most like of that kind of thing? I'm sure I'm gonna say tulips' runners.
我们看下它们的相似之处。
We look at their similarities.
1、一个神秘的故事
One. A mystery story.
16世纪中期，郁金香从土耳其被引入西欧，由于荷兰并不产郁金香，所以这种美丽的花带有了一种神秘的异域风情。而那株永远的奥古斯都因为一种病毒的感染而成为了当时的绝品，被拍卖出了天价。
In the middle of the 16th century, tulips were introduced from Turkey into Western Europe, and because the Netherlands did not produce tulips, this beautiful flower had a mysterious exotic style. The algus, which forever became the best product of a virus, was auctioned out.
2、一部分人的共识
II. PARTICULAR CONSULTATIONS
由于郁金香被引入欧洲，数量有限，因此价格极其昂贵。在崇尚浮华和奢侈的欧洲，很多达官显贵家里都摆有郁金香，作为观赏品和奢侈品向外人炫耀。郁金香是富人圈子里象征财富的共识。
Tulips are extremely expensive because they are introduced into Europe in limited quantities. In a rich and luxurious Europe, many high-ranking households have tulips that show off as visual and luxuries.
比特币运用了区块链技术，这种前无古人的分布式记账方式，让很多 科技 迷们成为了由衷的追随者。比特币代表了一部分人关于 科技 和 时尚 的共识。
Bitcoin has applied block chain technology, which is an ancient way of accounting, and has made a lot of tech fans followers. Bitcoin represents the consensus of a group of people about technology and fashion.
3、稀缺性
3. Scarcity
郁金香为什么稀缺？因为郁金香的原产地不在荷兰，而郁金香从下种子到培养出一个能开花的球根需要7-15年。或者靠球根每年开花后的分裂，由于当时培育技术并不过关，所以产量难以大量增加。
Why is tulips scarce? Because tulips do not originate in the Netherlands, and tulips take 7-15 years from the bottom seed to the cultivation of a flower-opening root of the ball. Or because the root of the ball splits every year, because the breeding technology was not closed at the time, it was difficult to increase production significantly.
比特币的稀缺性我们就不多言了，总共2100万个。
We don't have much to say about Bitcoin's scarcity, 21 million in total.
4、投机狂热
4. Speculatory fanaticism
彼时的荷兰，购买郁金香已经不再是为了其内在的价值或观赏之用，而是期望其价格能无限上涨并因此获利，郁金香变成了一种击鼓传花的博傻 游戏 ，很多人买郁金香，只不过是为了在价格更高时卖出去。
In the Dutch time, the purchase of tulips is no longer for their intrinsic value or appreciation, but rather for the expectation that their prices will rise indefinitely and thus profit, and tulips have become a game of dummies, and many people buy tulips just to sell them when prices are higher.
如今的比特币又何尝不是，真正认可比特币价值的人能有多少？有多少人买比特币是因为真正的喜欢？大部分人只不过是为了在价格更高时卖出去，获取巨额利益。
How many people buy bitcoin because they really like it? Most people just want to sell it at a higher price and get huge benefits.
我们讲投资，什么是投资？一种投资投的是机器厂房设备，这些未来能产生更多现金流的东西，因为它们可以真正的创造财富，即使你投的是股权股票，它们的背后也是机器厂房设备、知识产权劳力，这些都是可以创造财富的资产。一种投资投的是黄金、房地产，它们可以作为财富凝结下来，储备起来。
We talk about investment, what is investment? An investment is in machine equipment, something that will generate more cash flows in the future, because they can really create wealth, even if you invest in equity shares, behind them are machine equipment, intellectual property labour, assets that can create wealth. An investment is in gold, real estate, and they can be condensed and stored as wealth.
比特币投资投的是什么？我尚不清楚。下面是我列的一张总结的表格，有兴趣的可以对照一下。
What's the bitcoin investment? I don't know yet. Here's a summary table that I'll show you.
如果想投资，我建议投资些有价值的东西，是你真的认为它有价值，而且真的想拥有它。而不仅仅只是因为它在暴涨，你想以低价买进来，然后高价卖给下一个傻瓜。如果你真的认为10个郁金香球茎值一幢房子，你可以去换，只要你真的认为。如果你真的认为比特币那一串数字符号值30000美元，那你可以去换，心里假设比特币有一天价格一文不值时，你依然能如现在一样喜欢它就行。
If you want to invest, I suggest investing something valuable, because you really think it's worth it, and you really want to own it. It's not just because it's soaring, you want to buy it at a low price and sell it to the next fool. If you really think that 10 tulips are worth a house, you can change it, if you really think. If you really think that Bitcoins is worth $30,000, you can change it, assuming that Bitcoin will still like it one day when the price is worthless.
我觉得投资必须是真爱，你得真的认为它值，即使众叛亲离也毫不动摇。如果你真的笃定比特币是这样的，即使有一天全天下的人都在抛弃它时，你依然爱它，那对于你来讲它就是真的投资。
I think investment has to be true love, and you have to really think it's worth it, even if it's true. If you're sure that bitcoin is like this, you still love it, even one day, when people all over the world abandon it, it's true investment for you.
当然投机也不可耻，只不过投机的时候，请不要再提你的信仰，上床就上床，谈什么爱情？
Of course there's no shame in speculation, but when it comes to speculation, please stop talking about your faith, go to bed and talk about love.
一、2022年黄金会涨价吗涨幅不大。
First, will the price of gold rise in 2022 not so much?
1、其实在全世界疫情下，经济不增反降面前，黄金不会大涨。
1. In fact, in the face of the world's epidemic, gold will not rise sharply without economic growth or decline.
2、不过，每年临近春节前后的时候，黄金的价格却是是会涨一些，这个主要还是市场的需求变大导致的，不过大幅的涨基本还是不科学的。
However, the price of gold rises every year before or after the spring festival, mainly as a result of increased demand in the market, although the sharp increase is largely unscientific.
3、因此想要在2022年购买黄金的新人可以稍微再等等 预计在年中的时候，黄金的价格可以到一个合适的
Three, so new people who want to buy gold in 2022 can wait a little longer.
点，疫情的话要是慢慢好起来，之后的经济会恢复加速 黄金价格自然会下降。
Point, if the epidemic gets better, the economy will pick up faster, and the price of gold will drop.
二、2022黄金必跌吗跌的大概率较大。
Second, there is a greater probability that 2022 gold will fall.
1、2022年预期美联储加息的背景下，金价波动下跌相对比上涨更容易些，预计2022年第一季度金价将跌至1700美元。
In the context of the projected increase in interest rates of the Federal Reserve in 2022, it is relatively easier to fall in gold prices than to rise, and it is expected that gold prices will fall to $1,700 in the first quarter of 2022.
2、有专业机构表示:对现货黄金市场持看跌态度，预2022年黄金平均价格将低至1600美元，因此在2022年黄金跌的概率还是很大的，想要在这之前的购买黄金的小伙伴还是需要三思。
2. Specialized agencies have indicated that, with a declining attitude towards the spot gold market, the average price of gold is expected to be as low as US$ 1,600 in 2022, so that the probability of gold falling in 2022 is still high, and that the small partners who would like to buy gold before that point need to think twice.
总结:以上就是关于2022年黄金会涨价吗，2022黄金必跌吗白全部内容了，相信大家看完本文后也对黄金涨价否有了更多的了解，希望能帮到你。
Summing up: Are we talking about an increase in the price of gold in 2022 and a drop in the price of gold in 2022?
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