比特币经历从牛市到熊市的反转，挖矿业也随之从狂热进入冰冻期。冬天会杀死一部分人，但会让活下来的更加强大。
（决定比特币挖矿是否盈利的三个核心要素为币价、算力和电费。图/视觉中国）
(The three core elements determining the profitability of Bitcoin mining are currency prices, arithmetic and electricity costs. Chart/Visual China)
《财经》记者 吴杨盈荟/文 宋玮/编辑
比特币矿业正在承受一场熊市危机。经历过2017年四季度比特币价格暴涨的疯狂，从2018年初开始比特币价格持续下跌，整个比特币矿业随之进入冰冻期。仅在2018年3月，比特币价格就从1万美元以上跌至7000美元以下。
After the crazy fourth quarter of 2017 when Bitcoin prices soared, the price of bitcoin continued to fall from early 2018, and the entire Bitcoin mine went into freezing. In March 2018 alone, the price of Bitcoin fell from over $10,000 to less than $7,000.
如果比特币价格跌破8600美元，大型矿场将面临亏本风险，全球知名投行摩根士丹利在2018年4月的一份研究报告中如此预测。
If Bitcoin prices fell by $8,600, large mines would be at a loss risk, as predicted by Morgan Stanley, a well-known global investor, in a study in April 2018.
散户矿工和大型矿场在这次熊市中受损最为严重。摩根士丹利分析师Charlie Chan和其团队研究了各类型比特币矿工的挖矿成本，测算出了散户矿工、大型矿场和矿机生产商的盈亏平衡点。研究发现，矿机生产商比大型矿场或散户矿工更有抵挡比特币跌价的余裕，只要比特币价格维持在5000美元左右便不会赔本。而大型矿场和散户矿工的盈亏平衡点分别为8600美元和1.02万美元——3月比特币的价格已经跌穿了这两个临界值。
broke out most severely in this bear city. Charlie Chan, a Morgan Stanley analyst, and his team studied the mining costs of various types of bitcoin miners, and measured the profit/loss points of bulk miners, large mines, and miner producers. Research found that miner producers were more resistant to bitcoins than large or scattered miners, as long as the price of bitcoins remained around $5,000.
比特币挖矿业形成了一条完整的产业链上下游，分别由矿机生产商、多级销售商、矿池和矿工构成。矿机生产商位于核心地位，其他各个环节都在围绕着矿机生产商构建商业模式。“你可以把矿机想成只能买多的A股。整个区块链行业全都围着比特币转，矿机也一样。”一名加拿大华裔矿场主告诉《财经》记者，“币价下跌，矿机当天价格也马上会跌。低位囤了矿机，币价上升机器价格上升，卖出就赚了。”
Bitcoin digs a whole industry chain up and down, with 决定比特币挖矿是否盈利的三个核心要素为币价、算力和电费。在比特币价格无可逆转地进入下行通道时，算力和电费成为事关矿场存亡的因素。谁能在算力和电费的竞赛中取得压倒性优势，谁就更可能在寒冬中存活，在下一个牛市到来时赚得盆满钵满。 从比特币诞生的2009年到现在，全网算力整整涨了300亿倍。算力的暴涨让单台机器的挖矿收益几乎每两个月就将近减半。如何跟全网的算力进行竞争，以挖到更多的比特币是这场死亡游戏中的一个关键赛场。 From the birth of Bitcoin in 2009 to the present, the full net was 30 billion times higher. The surge in arithmetic nearly halves the mine profits of a single machine every two months. How 币价和机器价格双重下跌，电价则成为了盈亏核心因素。电价相差1毛钱到2毛钱，甚至可以直接关系矿场的存亡。“矿机不值钱，挖矿收益跌近电费成本，就会比谁的电费便宜。如果5毛多电费的人必须赔本卖机器，3毛钱的电还是可以开机。”一名矿池创始人说。 The price of 除了市场波动，比特币矿业也面临着另一重寒冬。2018年1月2日，互联网金融风险专项整治工作小组下发文件，要求各地整治办综合采取电价、土地、税收和环保等措施，引导辖内企业有序退出“挖矿”产业。 In addition to market fluctuations, the Bitcoin mining industry faces another severe winter. On 2 January 2018, the Internet Financial Risks Task Force issued a document calling for a combination of electricity prices, land, taxes, and environmental protection measures to be implemented in various parts of the country, leading to the orderly exit of enterprises from the “mining” industry. “这个行业赚钱的时候太赚钱了，但熊市得还回去，有公司熊市一来亏9个亿，牛市赚10个亿也只能花1个亿。”该矿池创始人对《财经》记者说。 "This business is making too much money, but the Bear City has to go back, with the company Bear losing 900 million and the cow market spending only 100 million dollars." The founder of the pond said to the finance reporter. 疯狂的矿机“目前整个行业除了研究技术的，都是资本市场的玩法。”
比特币价格从2017年9月开始持续上涨，12月达到顶峰，短短三个月涨幅接近500％。根据CoinMarketCap的数据，一枚比特币价格从2017年9月的4000美元，11月就一度翻倍涨至8000美元，12月更是上涨到1.95万美元的超高峰值。随之而来的是矿机市场的疯狂。
Bitcoin prices have been rising steadily since September 2017 and peaked in December, with a short three-month increase of nearly 500%. According to CoinMarketCap, the price of a bitcoin has doubled from $4,000 in September 2017 to $8,000 in November and to $19.5 million in December.
一名新疆矿场主告诉《财经》记者，2017年7月他用1万元的价格买了一批矿机，运作半年之后的旧机器在12月被人以近3万元的价格买走。这一次卖出矿机的利润，接近他半年挖币赚得的收益。
A Xinjiang miner told the financial reporter that in July 2017 he had bought a batch of mine machines for $10,000, and that the old machine after six months of operation had been bought in December for nearly 30,000 dollars. 's profit from selling the mine was close to his six months of money digging.
市场最狂热的时候，矿机一天一个价格，市场里种种不理性行为接连发生。一名矿场主透露，有股东上午卖出机器，下午看到价格上涨又将机器买了回来，甚至机器都没来得及挪动，股东跟买家商量完回购后，直接将上涨差价给买家打去。
At a time when the market was hottest, the miner had a price of one price a day, and all the irrational behaviors in the market were repeated. A miner revealed that a shareholder sold the machine in the morning and bought it back in the afternoon when the price rose, even though the machine had not been able to move in time. After negotiating with the buyer to buy it back, the owner went straight to the buyer for the price difference.
全球数字货币挖矿占据主导地位的矿机为ASIC矿机，比特大陆占有70％－80％的ASIC矿机市场份额，这让它成为产业链中最有话语权的一方。比特大陆联合创始人詹克团在接受《商业周刊》采访时透露，比特大陆2017年营收约为25亿美元。一名接近比特大陆的人士告诉《财经》记者，实际营收只会更多。
Global digital money mining is dominated by an ASIC miner, with a 70-80-per-cent share of the ASIC miner market on Bitland, which makes it the most vocal party in the industrial chain. The Pitt co-founder, Jacques, in an interview with the weekly Business Journal, revealed that Bitland collected about $2.5 billion in 2017.
该人士透露，比特大陆不仅销售矿机，也有自己的矿池和矿场，但营收95％以上均来自矿机销售收入。
revealed that not only did Bitland sell miners, but also its own ponds and mines, but more than 95 per cent of the revenues from machine sales were collected.
尽管比特大陆宣称只从官方网站公开销售矿机，但由于矿机产能有限，市场供不应求，多级矿机分销商随之出现。
Although Bitcontinent claims to sell mine machines only publicly from official websites, multi-level mine distributors have emerged because of the limited capacity of the mine and the insufficiency of the market.
《财经》记者向多名矿场主了解到，矿机生产厂商的定价不变，矿机价格的波动从一级经销商开始。一级矿业销售商从生产商拿到矿机，每天根据币价报价，后面的每一级经销商依次加价100元-300元。“矿机信息不透明，很多人在中间环节分一杯羹。所以实际你购买的经销商是几级也不一定。”上述加拿大华裔矿场主说。
The Wirtschaftsprüfer has learned to many mine owners that the prices of mine producers are constant and the price of miners fluctuates from the first-tier dealer. First-level mining sellers get the mine from the producer, priced daily on the basis of the currency, and each of the next-level distributors increases the price by $100-300.
深圳华强北是矿机分销商聚集的地方之一。《财经》记者在深圳华强北赛格电子商城向多家矿机分销商了解到，前来购买矿机的客户来自全球多个国家，除中国外还包括俄罗斯、塞尔维亚等国家，这些国家电费相对便宜，比特币挖矿兴盛。这里的矿机销售商往往在深圳和香港都设有仓库，深圳面向国内客户发货，香港则面向海外客户发货。
‘Strong’ is one of the places where mine distributors gather. ‘/strang’ journalists in Shenzhen – North Seger Electronics City – learn to multiple miner distributors that customers come from a number of countries around the world, including Russia and Serbia, in addition to China and abroad, where electricity costs are relatively low and bitcoin digs are booming.
2018年初以来，比特币市场出现了大规模的持续低迷，矿机也在短短半年时间里从狂热跌入严寒。
Since the beginning of 2018, the Bitcoin market has experienced a massive and persistent downturn, and the mine machine has also fallen from fanaticism to severe cold in just six months.
“矿工最怕在币价高的时候买矿机，买完币价跌了机器价也要跌。机器价格跳水，挖矿收益也变少了。”币印矿池联合创始人朱砝说。
"Minemen are most afraid to buy a miner when the price is high, and the price drops when the price falls. Machine prices jump, and the profits from mining are reduced." The co-founder of the coin-printing pond, Zhu Jing said.
比特大陆在2018年1月17日宣布限量发售A3矿机。出厂价定为2.08万元，国内外各发售6000台，一小时内即全部售罄。由于供不应求，1月底深圳华强北的A3矿机的价格最高被炒到4.5万元的高价。
The price of the A3 mine was set at $208,000 for sale, and 6000 each for sale within an hour. At the end of January, the price of the A3 mine in the north of Shenzhen was up to $45,000 for supply.
但随着比特币价格一路下行，从1月26日开始A3矿机的价格也大幅跳水，一天就能跌去1000元－2000元。有客户在1月底以4.5万元的高价购买了A3矿机，在2月初拿到矿机。拿到矿机三天后，比特大陆官网的A3矿机价格就跌到了7000多元。深圳华强北赛格电子商城的一家矿机销售商向《财经》记者透露，他认识的同行里已经有两家因为承受不住亏损只能关门。
But as Bitcoin prices went down, the price of the A3 mine fell by $1,000 a day, starting on January 26. Clients bought the A3 mine at a high price of $45,000 at the end of January, and got the mine in early February. Three days after getting the mine, the price of the A3 mine on the Bit mainland network fell to 7,000. A miner from North Seger Electronics City, Shenzhen, told a finance reporter that he already knew two of his peers who could only close down because they could't afford the loss.
受到比特币价格下跌影响，矿场也大规模削减工作的矿机。一名在新疆拥有5万台矿机规模的矿场主告诉《财经》记者，他正在以100台矿机下架90台的速度削减，目前已经将5万台矿机减少到1.5万台左右，且仍在继续。
A mine owner with 50,000 mining machines in Xinjiang told the WikiLeaks journalist that he was cutting down 90 of the 100 mines, and that he had reduced the number of 50,000 to about 15,000, and was continuing to do so.
“这个行业又没什么对冲的工具，只能尽快卖出以控制风险。”一位矿场主告诉《财经》记者，很多矿机客户在采购时存在杠杆，有的只需预付30％就能订机器，放大了收益也放大了风险。“目前整个行业除了研究技术的，都是资本市场的玩法。”他说。
"The industry has no hedge tools but to sell them as soon as possible to control the risks." A miner told the finance reporter that many of the miner's clients had leverage in purchasing, that some had only 30% prepaid to order machines, and that magnified the benefits and magnified the risks. : “As far as technology is concerned, the whole industry is a game of capital markets.” He said.
也有胆大的人试图在熊市借机抄底，抱币死守。“现在我币价都不看了，就是屯机器挖币，币价什么时候到1万元（人民币）什么时候再说。”一名拥有100多台矿机的河南矿工说，他一个月能挖50个ETH币左右。目前正在计划等显卡矿机跌破2000元时，再购买100台矿机。
There are also bold men who try to take advantage of it in the bear market and hold on to their money. “Now I don't even see the price, that's when the machine digs the money, when it comes to 10,000 yuan.” A Henan miner with more than 100 mining machines says he can dig about 50 ETHs a month. Plans are under way to buy another 100 when the card machine falls 2,000.
“币价每天都在变，挖矿现在按每天算利润根本没有用。说白了就是拿钱去赌的。” 该矿工说。
"The price of money changes every day, and mining is now useless as daily profits." The miner says.
算力困局
“矿机需求指数级增长，但产能没有指数级增加。”
从2017年到2018年，比特币价格经历过两次4倍-5倍的飞跃，矿机价格也随之出现过两次跃升。但仔细研究这两个阶段，比特币对矿机价格的影响幅度却大不相同。
Between 2017 and 2018, the price of Bitcoin made two four-to-five-fold leaps, followed by two leaps in the price of a miner. However, careful examination of the two phases, Bitcoin’s impact on the price of a miner varied considerably.
第一次跃升，比特币价格从2017年2月的1000美元上涨到10月的5000美元，矿机价格从8000元上涨到1万元，涨幅为25％。第二次跃升，比特币价格从2017年10月的5000美元上涨到1.9万美元，矿机价格则从1万元上涨到3万元，涨幅高达200％。
For the first time, the price of Bitcoin rose from $1,000 in February to $5,000 in October 2017, and the price of mine machines rose from $8,000 to $10,000, or 25 per cent. For the second time, the price of bitcoin rose from $5,000 to $19,000 in October 2017, and the price of miners rose from $10,000 to $30,000, or up to 200 per cent.
两次涨幅差异达到8倍之多。“两次比特币价格跌升对矿机价格影响差别很大。矿机需求指数级增长，比特币全网算力随之暴涨，但第二次产能没有跟上。”币印矿池联合创始人朱砝告诉《财经》记者。
The difference between the two increases is eightfold. “Two bitcoin price falls have a very different impact on the price of the miner. The rise in the index level of mine demand has led to a sharp rise in the full net capacity of bitcoin, but the second output has not been kept up. , the co-founder of the currency printing pond, Jojo, told the finance journalist.
比特币是一个基于算力的竞争游戏。作为一个比特币矿工，如果你想挖到更多的比特币，意味着你的挖矿机器需要跟全网的算力进行竞争。基于区块链技术的比特币有着独特的计算规则：平均每10分钟被挖出一个区块，每个区块包含12.5枚比特币以上。为了维持出块速率，比特币会约每13天增加一次计算难度。
Bitcoin is an arithmetic-based competition game. As a bitcoin miner, if you want to dig more bitcoin, it means that your mining machine needs to compete with the full net. 's bitcoin, based on block chain technology, has a unique rule of calculation: every 10 minutes a block is excavated, each block contains more than 12.5 bitcoins. In order to maintain the bit rate, bitcoin increases the difficulty of calculation about every 13 days.
从比特币诞生的2009年到现在，全网算力整整涨了300亿倍。全球共有200多万台矿机集合在数十家矿池，集中进行比特币挖矿。全网算力越多，单台矿机收益就越少，因为比特币产出全网是固定的。全网理论上一天能挖出144个区块，一个区块的挖矿奖金为12.5BTC，每天比特币全网挖矿总产出为1800BTC。实际上的挖矿产出会更多，约在2000BTC到2200BTC之间。
From the birth of Bitcoin in 2009 to the present, the full net capacity has increased 30 billion times. There are more than 2 million miners all over the world gathered in dozens of ponds to concentrate on bitcoin mining. The more the net power, the smaller the single mine, because bitcoin's output is fixed. The whole net is theoretically able to excavate 144 blocks a day, with a block worth 12.5 BTC, with a total daily output of 1800 BTC. The more minerals are actually excavated, between 2000 BTC and 2200 BTC.
你的矿机算力占全网总算力的几分之几，意味着你将在这2000多个BTC产出中分到相应比例的挖矿收益。
Your numeracy accounts for a fraction of the total net capacity, meaning that you will have a proportionate share of the mining proceeds from the output of more than 2,000 BTCs.
币印矿池联合创始人朱砝指出，近一年比特币全网算力平均每12天将增长8％。2017年初全网算力为5EH/S，2018年初则翻了5倍变为25EH/S，相当于多了4倍的矿机竞争。比特大陆S9矿机的算力为13.5TH/S，如今约1000台矿机才能挖出1个比特币。
The co-founder of the coin-printing pond, Chu, noted that the full-net capacity of Bitcoins would increase by 8% on average for 12 days in the past year. The full-net capacity was 5EH/S at the beginning of 2017, and by the beginning of 2018 it increased by five times to 25EH/S, amounting to four times the size of the mine. The size of the S9 miner in Bitland is 13.5 TH/S, and about 1,000 miners are now able to dig up one bitcoin.
不只是比特币，其他数字货币矿工也面临着算力暴涨、挖矿收益急剧下跌的困局。一名以太坊矿工告诉《财经》记者，2017年10月他的一台矿机每个月还能挖出来1个ETH。但过了两个月左右就变成只能挖0.6个ETH，到2018年3月份则只能挖到0.45个ETH了。算力的暴涨让单台机器的挖矿收益几乎每两个月就将近减半。
Not only bitcoin, but other digital money miners in
他算了一笔账，在ETH3000元人民币的币价下，单台机器的产出平均为0.5个ETH，约为1500元人民币，每月电费需要花费800元左右，每台矿机挖矿单月利润为700元－800元。按一台机器6000元的成本算，基本要9个－10个月才能回本。而算力暴涨则让回本时间拖得更长，将超过一年。
He took an account of the average output of a single machine of 0.5 ETH at a currency value of RMB 3,000, at a cost of RMB 1,500, at a cost of RMB 800 per month for electricity, at a profit of 700-800 yuan per miner per month. , at a cost of RMB 6,000 per machine, would take roughly 9-10 months to return.
超过一年的回本时间对于矿工来说颇为危险。比特大陆的矿机平均约每1.5年推出一批新迭代产品，正常情况下，矿工会在挖矿半年时卖出手中的币和二手机器，将现金流投入购买最新型号的矿机。如果回本时间过长，这些旧矿机既无法变现，又消耗大量电费，且在算力竞争中落败挖矿收益极小，相当于“废铁”。
The return time of more than one year is dangerous for miners. On average, Bitcollers in the continent launch a new product every 1.5 years, and normally the union sells the coins and second-hand machines in its hand for six months to buy the newest type of mine. If the return time is too long, these old machines will neither realize, nor consume large amounts of electricity, and will lose much of their profits in arithmetic competition, amounting to “iron scrap”.
单打独斗的时代已经过去。
The era of solitude is over.
聪明的人们发明了“矿池”——一种可以将分散的个人算力合并联合运作的程序。当你的个人算力仅占全网算力一亿分之一时，连接到矿池后，你和其他人的算力聚集起来变成全网十分之一甚至更多，这让矿池有机会通过算力优势取得更多的挖矿收益。矿池收取3％－5％手续费后，再将收益分配给矿工。
Smart people have invented a “mine pool” – a procedure that combines dispersed individual computing with joint operations. When you have a personal capacity of one-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-one-one-one-tenteen-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred-one.
2011年5月全球第一家比特币矿池Eligius成立。2012年被称为“矿池元年”，当年所有矿池的算力已经占到了全球总算力的50％。这意味着个人使用家庭电脑挖比特币的时代结束。“有了矿池以后，单机就开始挖不到了。”币印矿池联合创始人朱砝说。
In May 2011, the world's first bitcoin pond, Eligius, was founded. 2012 was known as the “academic year of the pits”, when all the ponds accounted for 50% of the global total. meant that the time had come for individuals to use their home computers to dig for bitcoins. “With the ponds, the single machine can't begin to dig anymore.” The co-founder of the coin-printing ponds, Jojing, said .
矿机本质是芯片的集合，并非一台完整电脑，其系统跟路由器一样，只能执行计算操作。因此矿机挖矿时需要矿池为矿机下发任务，并在矿机完成任务后进行检验，发放收益奖励。
The core of the mine is a collection of chips, not a complete computer, and its system, like a router, can only perform computational operations.
矿池为了吸引更多的矿机加入聚集算力，会设计更为慷慨的奖励机制。一个简单的类比是，如果把挖矿抽象成掷骰子游戏，游戏规则原本应该在掷到“5”以上才有奖励，但不少矿池会设计只要掷到“3”以上就能分到小部分奖励。这让矿工更为踊跃地加入矿池，而非个人进行挖矿。
A simple analogy is that if the mining was abstracted into a dice-throwing game, the rules of the game should have been thrown more than “5” but a lot of the ponds would have been designed to get a smaller share of the reward if they had been thrown more than “3.” This has allowed miners to join the pool more actively than individuals.
“增量的算力如果矿池能抓得住，会很快崛起。”币印矿池联合创始人朱砝说。他曾经参与创办过BTC.COM。BTC.COM于2016年9月份上线，是比特大陆的内部矿池创业项目。由于把握住了2017年比特币市场的牛市红利，BTC.COM从2016年排名前十开外到2017年底成为世界第一的矿池。
"The incremental calculus will rise quickly if the pond can catch it." The co-founder of the coin-printing pond, Joju, said. He was involved in the creation of the BTC.COM. BTC.COM was launched in September 2016 as an in-house pit business project in Bitland. became the world's number-one miner from the top ten in 2016 to the end of 2017, as he captured the cattle dividend of the 2017 Bitcoin market.
随着中国矿工在全球的壮大，中国的矿池亦同步崛起。考虑网络速度问题，矿工会优先选自己国家的矿池，因此矿池和矿工是一体的。据BTC.COM的实时数据显示，2018年4月全球前十大矿池中国矿池占据了八席，掌握着比特币全网算力的75％。其中比特大陆的两个矿池BTC.COM和蚂蚁矿池牢牢占据着第一、二名的位置。
According to BTC.COM, in April 2018, the Chinese ponds in the top ten of the world's largest ponds occupied eight seats and held 75% of Bitcoin's full net power. Two of them, BTC.COM and ant ponds in Bit continent, held first and second positions.
矿池解决了单台矿机算力不足的问题，但也引发人们的担忧——理论上只要有人能掌握全网51％的算力，就能发动“51％攻击”，控制整个比特币网络。而目前矿池排名第一的BTC.COM已经占据了全网超过30％的算力。
The pond solves the problem of a single mine machine's insufficiency, but it also raises concerns – theoretically, with 51% of the net, one can launch a “51% attack” and control the entire Bitcoin network. The BTC.COM, which is now the number one in the pond, has more than 30% of the net.
如何制衡矿池的权力，也成为比特币矿业接下来的难题。
How to balance the power of the pits is also the next challenge for the Bitcoin mine.
电力博弈
“矿机不值钱，就会比谁的电费便宜。”
电价和机器价格是比特币挖矿的两大核心成本。在币价和机器价格双重下跌之时，电价则成为盈亏关键。电价相差1毛钱到2毛钱，甚至可以直接关系到矿场的存亡。
The price of electricity and machine prices are two of the core costs of mining bitcoin. When the price of money and machine prices fall, the price of electricity becomes the key to the profit or loss. The difference between the price of
个人矿工在挖矿时，基础设施往往不及格。一名矿工告诉《财经》记者，他在河南农村架设了100多台矿机，甚至连地线都没有接上。最开始只有20台－30台矿机时机器运行稳定，但增长到100台之后由于静电增多，不少矿机经常死机。他想出一个除静电的土办法：在院子里挖个坑，买来废弃的三角铁扔坑里，再倒上十几包盐。
Personal miners often fail in their infrastructure when they dig. A miner told the bank reporter, ‘strong’, that he had set up more than 100 mine machines in rural Henan, even without access to the earthline. At the beginning, there were only 20-30 miners whose machines were stable at the beginning, but after they grew to 100, a number of miners often died because of the increase in static power. He came up with a way to remove the electrostatic power: to dig a hole in the yard, buy an abandoned triangle to throw, pour a dozen more bags of salt.
由于没有其他供电的方法，他挖矿只能使用市电，0.76元一度，一个月所有矿机的总电费开销就要8万多，挖矿的收益为50个ETH，按目前ETH4200元人民币计算，单月收益为21万元，扣除电费成本后利润为13万元。同时购买矿机的总成本约为100万元，意味着要近一年才能收回成本。而算力在持续衰减，他的回本时间将会拉得更长——这还不包括币价下跌的风险。
In the absence of alternative sources of electricity, he was able to dig only with municipal electricity, while at one time he spent more than 80,000 dollars per month on the total cost of electricity for all mine machines, with 50 ETHs, with a profit of 210,000 yuan per month based on the current ETH 4,200 yuan and a profit of 130,000 yuan after deducting the cost of electricity. At the same time, the total cost of purchasing a miner was about $1 million, meaning that it would take almost a year to recover the cost.
“一台矿机的收益曲线是持续下降的，当收益曲线降到跟电费相等就达到关机临界点。一般矿机是半年左右卖掉，半年回本，一年半关机。只有当你的电费特别便宜，才能够一直开着矿机。”朱砝说。
"The yield curve of a miner continues to decline, reaching the cut-off threshold when the yield curve falls to the same level as the electricity charge. Usually the mine is sold for about six months, six months back, and one and a half years off. Only when your electricity costs are particularly cheap can you keep the mine on." Jojon says.
渴求低廉电费和专业的基础设施，比特币挖矿业从个人矿工逐渐向规模化矿场发展。“矿场有特殊条件要求：噪音高达100分贝，矿机安放在城市里不适合。同时电费不能太高，还要配备稳压器等各种设施，散户无法来干，只适合工厂来挖。”一名新疆矿场主告诉《财经》记者。
矿场分为自有和托管两种模式。由于自有模式需要前期积压大量成本投入矿机，目前大部分矿场都采取托管模式——类似于房产的物业服务，矿场寻找到电费低廉的矿场场地，为客户托管矿机。挖矿收益归属客户，矿场只收取部分管理费用。
mines are divided into self-owned and hosting models. , due to its own model, which requires a significant backlog of pre-existing cost inputs, now most mines use a hosting model — similar to real estate services — to find low-cost mining sites and host mine machines for their clients.
尽管如此，建设一家托管矿场的前期投资也不小。据一位拥有2万台机位的贵州矿场主介绍，托管矿场的成本为1000元一个机位。如果一家1万台机位的中小型矿场，可以节约一些成本，但也需要投入七八百万元。不过，矿场托管的收益也颇为可观。一般矿场会对客户收取一个月200元左右的服务费用，1万个机位如果全部上满，大约半年左右可以回本。
The cost of hosting a mine is $1,000, according to the owner of a mining site in Guizhou, which has 20,000 seats. A small and medium-sized mine of 10,000 places would have saved some of the costs, but would have cost $7.8 million.
在比特币进入熊市时，谁的电费更加低廉还决定着矿场能否挺过寒冬。
When Bitcoin entered Bear City, whose electricity costs were lower and who determined whether or not the mines would survive the winter.
一位矿池创始人透露，目前矿业的用电分为两档：正常工业供电为0.6元－0.7元/度，但许多矿场的电力成本只有0.3元－0.4元/度。这种低成本的电力来源有很多种，一些是不正规的，比如某个环节没有交过网费，也有一些地区没有国电，自己开矿场要去跟有售电资质的单位谈，例如新疆有兵团，内蒙古有蒙西电网。“这些地方反正电也没人要，能够谈下比较好的价格。主要是火电，风电也有。”
One of the founders of the ponds revealed that there are currently two types of electricity used in mining: normal industrial power supply is 0.6-0.7 yuan/degree, but the cost of electricity in many mines is only 0.3-0.4 yuan/degree. There are many types of low-cost sources of electricity, some of which are informal, such as the non-payment of network fees at a certain link and the absence of electricity in some areas, and the opening of the mine itself is to talk to entities that sell electricity, such as the army in Xinjiang and the Monci grid in Mongolia.
为了寻找到低廉的电力，比特币矿场军团在全国开启了一场持续数年的寻电大迁移。
In order to find low-cost electricity, the Bitcoin Mine Corps has launched a major power-seeking migration throughout the country for several years.
一名2014年开始挖矿的矿场主告诉《财经》记者，中国最早一批挖矿的人聚集在深圳，当时用的是深圳市电，价格偏高接近1元/度，不少比特币矿工都是在深圳打工的外来务工人员，家乡在河南、安徽等地。他们随后将矿机携带返回家乡开始大规模挖矿，挖矿聚集地转移到平顶山、马鞍山等地。为了降低电费，不少人挖矿时在用电上做手脚，“基本是用一半，偷一半”。其后平顶山等地开始严控偷电行为，电费失去了低价优势，矿工们又开始向有大量水电的四川转移。
A miner who began mining in 2014 told the financial press that 四川水力发电丰富，丰水期电力供大于求。一些矿场甚至能直接包下一个小型水电站供电，电费成本最低能够达到0.1元－0.2元/度。但进入秋冬季节之后，四川电力供应不稳定，矿业迁入引发电厂激烈竞争，电力价格开始上涨。矿场军团随后从四川进一步向大西北迁移，目前不少矿场转移至内蒙古、新疆，以火力和风力发电为主。同时也有一部分更有实力的矿场开始向海外迁移，电费便宜的加拿大、俄罗斯、冰岛等国都成为了中国矿场迁移的目的地。 Some mines can even directly charge the next small hydroelectric power station at a minimum cost of 0.1-0.2 yuan/degree. But after autumn and winter, the supply of Sichuan electricity became unstable, mining moved into the power plant and electricity prices began to rise. The mining corps then moved further from Sichuan to the north-west, and now many mines are transferred to Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, where power is based on fire and wind. 穿越熊市 Crosses Bear City“在这个领域里待得足够久的人看来，这次更像是历史的重演。”
2018年初的熊市让整个比特币矿业在寒冬中瑟瑟发抖。但在这个领域里待得足够久的一些人看来，这次更像是历史的重演。
The Bear City in early 2018 caused the entire Bitcoin mine to shake in the winter. But some of those who stayed in this area long enough seem more like a repeat of history.
比特币世界里是有周期的——一部分经历过2014年比特币熊市的人倾向做出如上判断。2018年3月底，曾为中国最大比特币矿场之一的经营者赵东在区块链社群中公开分享了对比特币周期的判断。他认为2017年11月到如今比特币大涨大跌的情况，非常类似2013年比特币涨到历史高位8000元人民币之后的阶段。
At the end of March 2018, Zhao Dong, the operator of one of China’s largest bitcoin mines, publicly shared the judgement of the Bitcoin cycle among the block chain communities. believed that by November 2017, when bitcoin had risen and dropped to the present day, it was very similar to the period following its rise to an historic high of 8,000 yuan in 2013.
“比特币大概是四年一个周期，以挖矿减半为关键时间点。如果我们把2013年看作是比特币的夏天，那么2014年是秋天，2015年是冬天。我本人就曾经冻死在了2015年的冬天。”赵东说。他以此推断，2016年比特币减半开启新一轮牛市，到2017年成为比特币的大牛市，到2018年应该进入又一个“秋天”，“冬天”则会在2019年。
"bitcoin" is probably a four-year cycle, with the key point of time for mining to be halved. If we see 2013 as the summer of Bitcoin, 2014 as autumn and 2015 as winter. I've been freezing myself to death in the winter of 2015.
CoinMarketCap数据显示，2014年到2015年比特币进入震荡下行的通道，价格一直在200元－300美元低位徘徊。直到2016年比特币开始进入震荡上行阶段，新一轮牛市开启。大量的矿机公司、矿工和炒币者在这一轮暴涨暴跌中血本无归。赵东亦是其中之一。
CoinMarketCap data show that the price of Bitcoin’s access to the low tremor route from 2014 to 2015 remained at a low price of $200 to $300. By 2016, Bitcoin began to move into the upper stage of the shock, opening a new cycle of cattle.
他在社群分享中提到，他在2014年因加杠杆炒币爆仓和开设比特币矿场，总亏损达到近1.5亿元人民币。2015年比特币最低跌到900元人民币，赵东为了偿还开设矿场募资的债务，只能卖掉所有的挖矿设备，原价5000万元买进的矿机不到300万元悉数卖掉。最艰难的时候，他身上只有10万元，加6000万元债务。
In community sharing, he mentioned that in 2014 he had foiled the silo and opened the Bitcoin mine, with a total loss of close to RMB 150 million. In 2015, Bitcoins dropped to RMB 900, and Zhao Dong sold only all the mining equipment to pay off the debt to raise money to open the mine. The original 50 million-dollar miner bought less than 3 million yuan in full.
残酷的熊市，却也成为了一些人的机会。当电费成本0.5元多的矿工急于抛售矿机时，电费成本0.3元的矿工则仍未达到停机临界值，可以一直开机挖矿。有部分矿工趁机用几百元的价格低价大量抄底矿机，一直挖到2017年，在新一轮牛市中暴富。目前全球矿机市场份额第一的比特大陆，也是2014年比特币“寒冬”的幸存者。
A brutal bear market is also an opportunity for some people. When the cost of electricity is more than $0.5 million, the cost of electricity is still short of the cut-off threshold of $0.3 million.
一名接近比特大陆的人士告诉《财经》记者，2013年－2014年比特币大跌，两三千元成本的矿机只能卖不到几百元，如果不卖就是废铁。市场上当时存在数十家矿机制造商，在币价大跌时多数都因资金链断裂倒闭，或者勉强撑过也不得不缩减研发成本，由于比特大陆一直强调成本控制，在这一轮熊市中脱颖而出。
A man close to Bitland told the finance reporter that between 2013 and 2014 Bitcoin fell sharply, with $23,000 worth of machines selling less than a few hundred dollars, or scrap iron. There were dozens of miner manufacturers in the market at that time, most of which had to cut down because of the collapse of the money chain or barely survived, and because of the constant emphasis on cost control in Bitcontinent, it emerged from the bear market.
比特大陆在2014年相继推出了蚂蚁S3和S4等型号的矿机。S3矿机销量不错，但受到市场低迷影响，S4矿机的销售情况惨淡，公司损失不小。所幸由于成本控制较好，比特大陆在低谷期仍然能支持新一代矿机研发。2015年1月，比特大陆推出新一代蚂蚁矿机S5。在对手们大多因熊市缩减研发的情况下，蚂蚁矿机S5在市场上获得成功。比特大陆联合创始人詹克团在接受《商业周刊》采访时表示，公司会为熊市准备三年的现金流。
In January 2015, Pitcontinent launched a new generation of ant miner S5. An ant miner S5 was successful on the market when its rivals mostly reduced their research and development in Bear City. ’s co-founder, Jank, in his interview in Businessweek, said that the company would prepare three years of cash flow for Bear City.
“比特大陆靠S5矿机挺过了那一轮，熊市是帮它跑到第一的机会。挺有意思的是，比特大陆偶数型号的矿机都比较赔钱，单数都很成功。所以后来只有S7、S9、S11，没有S8。比特大陆在S4之后再也不出偶数了。”该名接近比特大陆的人士说。
"Bit continent's S5 mine went through that round, and Bear City was the first chance to help it get to the top. Interestingly, Bit continent's even-numbered mine has been relatively successful. So only S7, S9, S11, no S8. Bit continent never even had an even number after S4.
2018年4月以来，比特币的价格开始出现了回升的迹象，从7000美元左右上涨至9000美元以上。数字货币业界有人判断这是比特币重回牛市的征兆，也有人认为熊市将持续一年或更长时间——不同的判断，将决定他们不同的命运。
Since April 2018, the price of Bitcoin has begun to show signs of recovery, rising from around $7,000 to over $9,000. The digital currency industry has been judged to be a sign of Bitcoin’s return to the cattle market, and it has been argued that Bear City will last one year or more – a different judgement that will determine their different destinies.
无论如何，只有预见寒冬并为之早做准备的人，才更有看见下一个牛市的可能。
In any case, only those who foresee the cold winter and prepare for the early morning are more likely to see the next cow market.
（本文首刊于2018年4月30日出版的《财经》杂志）
(the first issue of this paper was published on 30 April 2018 in the Journal of Finance)
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