文章编辑时间2023.4.11凌晨0：20分，所有观点不构成任何投资建议！仅供学习交流。
The editorial time is 2023.4.11 a.m. at 0.20 a.m., and all views do not constitute an investment proposal!
上周美国公布的一系列数据几乎全线不及预期，范围从制造业、房地产进一步扩散至重要经济部门服务业。经历了突发性的地区性银行动荡后，外界对于美国经济的走势变得越发引人关注。
Last week’s series of data released in the United States was almost incomplete, extending further from manufacturing, real estate, to services in key sectors of the economy. After a sudden regional banking turmoil, the trend in the US economy has become increasingly interesting.
种种迹象表明，美联储近四十年来最激进的货币政策正在产生效果。受多种因素影响，近两周美国经济预期进一步放缓，亚特兰大联储GDPNow最新预测显示，一季度经济增速已经降至1.5%，较上月高位回落近1个百分点，投资者一度憧憬5月结束加息周期。不过对于美联储而言，仍然遥远的通胀目标或成为政策路径调整的重大挑战，特别是近期产油国组织OPEC+意外减产可能对能源价格的影响。
There are indications that the Fed’s most aggressive monetary policy has been working for nearly four decades. The US economy is expected to slow further in the last two weeks, owing to a combination of factors, and recent forecasts by the Federal Reserve’s GDP Now indicate that the economy has declined to 1.5 per cent in the first quarter, down nearly 1 percentage point from last month’s high, with investors hoping to end the interest-rate cycle in May.
美股期货开市后，在凌晨带动大饼市场走强了一波，这是美股对于周五非农数据的修复式反馈，随后美股期货则一路走低，晚间开盘后，预计很难持续冲高，核心逻辑还是当前对于 5 月份升息 25 个基点的概率依然不小，升息 60% 不升息 40%。以纳斯达克为代表的科技类股票此前的炒作炒的是 5 月份收紧结束，未来具备放水预期，但现在来看收紧似乎尚未结束，同时其基本面并没有转好，4 月中会公布大量的一季度报表，彭博社认为这个财报季的预期是令人沮丧的，也有分析认为科技股在该季度的利润可能是 2006 年以来最大的跌幅。本周公布 CPI，以及大量财报，不确定性极高，投资上应该更加保守，市场并没有表面上看到的那么完美。
After the opening of the market for US equity futures, a wave of United States stock restoration feedback on Friday's non-farm data took place in the early hours of the morning, after which US stock futures were down, and it was not expected to keep up. After the opening of the market at night, it was difficult to keep up. The core logic was still the current probability of raising interest rates for 25 basis points in May, raising interest rates by 60% without interest rates by 40%. The stock of technology, represented by NASDAQ, had been strained in May and had future water release expectations, but it now seemed that the tightening had not yet ended, while its fundamentals had not changed, and that a large number of quarterly statements would be published in mid-April.
大饼截至发稿前高点28570附近，低点28170附近。大饼在美股期货的影响下，走了一波冲高回落，随后在周一白盘维持窄幅震荡，大饼连续多日维持27800-28500窄幅整理，日线成交量维持缩量运行，自3月底截止目前近一个月时间整体维持高位震荡，目前接近于整理末端。由于前期主趋势仍是多头，因此后期上破概率较大，在周三CPI数据出来前估计继续维持震荡走势。
The big cakes, which are close to the height of 28570 until the end of the release, are close to the end of the consolidation. The big pies, under the influence of American futures, have gone down a wave, then maintained a narrow shock on a white plate on Monday, maintained a narrow consolidation of 27800-28500 on a continuous basis for many days, maintained a contraction in the volume of the sunlines, and maintained an overall high shock for almost a month up to the end of March, and are now nearing the end of the consolidation. As the trend remains high, the probability of later breakouts is high, and it is expected to continue until Wednesday's CPI data comes out.
日线上看，受MA7日和10日线支撑，布林带依然处于收敛口中，受布林中轨28000支撑。从4小时图来看，布林带开口打开，受布林上轨28400压制。总体看大饼目前走势相当稳定，操作上可以高抛低吸。日内上方关注压力28500-28800，下方关注支撑27500-27300。建议27500-27750区间轻仓多，止损放到27100下方，目标看到28000-28500。28500-28800区间轻仓空，止损放到29200上方，目标28100-27800. 行情变化万千，具体操作以实时策略为主。一颗红心做好两手准备嘉威KDJ四柒伍八零，浮竹提醒切记带好止损止盈
On the solar line, supported by the MA7 and 10 lines, the Brein belt is still in a trap, supported by the Bulin track 28000. According to the four-hour map, the Brenn belt is open and is under pressure from the Boolin track 28400. On the whole, the big pies are now stable and can be used for low-sortting. On the inside, the pressure is 28500-28800. On the bottom, the pressure is 27500-27300.
以太坊截至发稿前高点1866附近，低点1846附近，以太近期走势强于大饼，整体在上周冲高触及1940一线后开始跌落，从时间上来看对以太是不利的，升级的时间临近，多头如果再不发动进攻，可能等升级开始反弹的机会就小了。建议大家在升级前遇高点还是要减仓一些，因为升级后会有较多的解封盘会涌出，可能会给市场造成压力。
In the near 1866 high, near the low 1846, near the pre-drafting point, it was too recent to be so strong that the whole fell after hitting the 1940 line last week. In time, it was too bad for the Ether, the timing of the escalation was approaching, and it might be less likely to wait for the upgrades to start rebounding. It was suggested that everyone should be better off before the upgrades, because more disassemblies would come up, which could put pressure on the market.
周线上看，以太依然处于多头趋势中，布林开口向上打开，受布林上轨2000一线压制。从日线上看，周日收出阳十字星，结束了三连阴，布林带处在收敛口中，受布林中轨1810支撑。 从4小时图看，布林带处于收敛口中，受布林中轨1850支撑，MCAD量能低迷。操作上回调低吸为主。日内关注上方压力1880-1900，下方关注支撑1800-1820。建议1830-1850区间轻仓多，止损放到1700下方，目标1870-1880。1880-1870区间轻仓空，止损放到1900上方，目标1855-1830。行情变化万千，具体操作以实时策略为主。
On the line of four hours, the Brynn belt is still in a multi-head trend, supported by 1850 in the middle of the boolean track, and the MCAD volume is low. The upwards and downs are dominated by the upwards pressure of 1880-1900, the bottom of which is 1800-1820. Recommendations 1830-1850 are for more light storage in areas below 1700, with targets 1870-1880. 1880-1870 is for light storage in areas below 1900, with targets 1855-1830.
声明：以上内容均为个人观点，策略仅供参考，不作为投资依据，如有跟进风险自担。返回搜狐，查看更多
Statement: The above is a personal point of view, and the strategy does not serve as a basis for investment, if there is a risk of follow-up. returned to search for more
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