当地时间4月2日,美股三大指数集体低开,盘中均跌超1%。截至收盘,道指跌1.00%,纳指跌0.95%,标普跌0.72%。除了美股下跌以外,比特币也出现大跌。
On April 2, local time, the three major indices of the United States fell by more than 1%. By closing, the fingers fell by 1.00%, the finger by 0.95%, and the pamphlet by 0.72%. In addition to the United States shares, Bitcoin also fell by a large margin.
据羊城晚报,这次比特币突然暴跌的直接原因,可能是大型比特币持有者的异常行为(或称“比特币巨鲸”),他在周一深夜向Bitfinex交易所转移了超过4000枚比特币,所以,这一抛售后的10分钟,比特币价格迅速走低,接连跌破67000美元和66000美元两道整数关口,甚至一度失守65000美元/枚,为3月24日以来首次,过去24小时暴跌约5000美元。
According to the sheep city evening paper, the direct cause of the sudden collapse of Bitcoin may be the unusual behaviour of large Bitcoin holders (or “bitcoin whales”), who transferred more than 4,000 bitcoins to the Bitfinex Exchange late on Monday night, so that 10 minutes after the sale, Bitcoin prices quickly fell down, falling into two full doors of $67,000 and $66,000, and even lost $65,000 per item for the first time since 24 March, and fell by about $5,000 for the first time in the past 24 hours.
和3月14日创下的历史高点相比,比特币价格已下跌约11%。
Bitcoin prices have fallen by about 11 per cent compared to the historic highs that were created on 14 March.
CoinGlass数据显示,截至发稿,比特币24小时内跌6.26%,报65465美元;ETH在24小时内跌6.67%,报3279美元。24小时内,虚拟币市场共有13.45万人爆仓,爆仓总额4.56亿美元(约合人民币33亿元)。
CoinGlass data show that 消息面上,美债收益率继续上升,10年期美债收益率一度突破4.4%。交易员进一步下调了对美联储6月份和今年降息的押注。美联储官员Loretta Mester表示,希望今年降息三次前看到更多证明通胀放缓的数据。 According to the news, the rate of return on US debt has continued to rise, with the rate of return on US debt having exceeded 4.4 per cent in a decade, and traders have further reduced their bets on the Federal Reserve for June and this year’s interest cuts. Federal Reserve official Loretta Mester has said that he hopes to see more data on the slowdown three times before the fall this year. 正是在这样的背景下,链上分析平台CryptoQuant最新研报显示,比特币近期反弹至历史新高之后,市场的基本面发生了显著变化,表明美国国内投资者对其需求减弱。根据CryptoQuant跟踪的数据,Coinbase Premium指标的七天移动均线已经转为负值,这意味着美国投资者的净买盘相对较弱。 It is against this background that the recent study of CryptoQuant, the chain-based analysis platform, shows that, after the recent rebound of Bitcoin to historical heights, the market’s fundamentals have changed significantly, suggesting that domestic investors in the United States are less demanding. According to CryptoQuant, the seven-day average moving line of Coinbase Premium’s index has been converted to negative, which means that the net buying of US investors is relatively weak. 雪上加霜的是,市场预期的“减半”事件临近。所谓“减半”是指比特币的挖矿奖励减半,这减少了新比特币的供应量。据BTC.com显示,当前区块高度距离比特币“减半”时间剩余已不足20天。而在“减半”前进行价格调整也是市场中一部分所预期的健康回调。在2016年和2020年的“减半”周期中,比特币价格分别下跌了38%和20%。 This is compounded by the impending “50-per-cent” of market expectations. “50-per-cent” refers to the halving of bitcoin mining incentives, which reduces the availability of new bitcoins. 加密货币这个市场很魔幻,从高空到地板,是瞬息之间的事。但这些年,仍有不少投资者追逐比特币,背后也有多种原因。 The market for crypto-currency is eccentric, from the sky to the floor, and it is instantaneous. There are still a lot of investors chasing Bitcoin in these years, and there are many reasons behind it. 据上观新闻,“首先,比特币呈现出高回报潜力,过去几年,比特币的价格表现优于传统资产。其次,比特币与传统金融市场的关联度较低,将其纳入投资组合可以分散风险。此外,一些投资者认为其有抗通胀的特性,可作保值工具。”天使投资人郭涛向记者分析。 According to the above news, “firstly, Bitcoin has shown high return potential, and in the past few years Bitcoin prices have outperformed traditional assets. Second, it has a low correlation with traditional financial markets, and its inclusion in the portfolio can spread risk. 但是,投资比特币存在的风险仍很多。北京社科院研究员王鹏告诉记者,比特币的价格可能在短时间内大幅波动,导致投资者遭受巨大损失,尽管比特币的技术被认为是安全的,但仍存在潜在的被网络攻击和窃取的风险。 However, the risk of investing in bitcoin remains high. Researcher Wang Peng of Beijing SSS told reporters that the price of bitcoin could fluctuate significantly in a short period of time, leading to huge losses for investors, and that while Bitcoin technology is considered safe, there is still a potential risk of cyberattacks and theft. 此外,当前不同国家对比特币的监管政策各异,法律框架尚还在不断发展,这会影响其合法性和市场接受度。比特币价格会受到大型参与者的影响,市场有被操纵的风险。 Moreover, the regulatory policy and legal framework currently vary from country to country, and the legal framework is still evolving, affecting its legitimacy and market acceptability. Bitcoin prices are influenced by large players, with markets at risk of manipulation. 必须注意的是,在我国,持有和交易比特币是不受法律保护的行为。2017年相关部门要求国内比特币交易平台全部关停,并退出市场。2021年,中国人民银行发布通知称,虚拟货币不具有与法定货币等同的法律地位,虚拟货币相关业务活动属于非法金融活动。 It is important to note that in our country, the holding and trading of Bitcoin is not protected by law. In 2017, the relevant sector asked the domestic Bitcoin trading platform to shut down completely and exit the market. In 2021, the Chinese people 自比特币问世以来,价格一路起伏不定,暴涨暴跌几乎是常态,市场面临的多重风险不容忽视。“风险是金融活动的内在属性,加密行业也不例外。当前加密货币市场仍面临宏观经济不确定性加大、行业‘黑天鹅’犹存以及监管政策尚未明朗等潜在利空因素。”数字资产交易平台OKX研究院高级研究员赵伟表示。 “Risk is the intrinsic attribute of financial activity, and the encryption industry is no exception. The current market for encrypted money is still faced with potential profit-making factors such as increased macroeconomic uncertainty, the persistence of the industry ‘black swan’ and the lack of clarity about regulatory policies.” Zhao Wei, a senior researcher at the Digital Asset Trading Platform OKX, said. 另据北京商报报道,比特币是否还有进一步上行空间?未来如何走?中国通信工业协会区块链专委会共同主席、香港区块链协会荣誉主席于佳宁指出,以比特币为首的数字资产可以被认为是一种“未来资产”,其价值能够有效穿越经济周期。而数字资产可以理解为数字经济发展的一面镜子,就如同股市反映实体产业的关系一样,数字资产价值重估反映数字经济的发展和繁荣。但作为一种高波动性的资产,比特币的价格短期内可能会经历剧烈波动,这在很大程度上取决于市场情绪、宏观经济环境、监管政策等因素。 Also reported by the Beijing Businessmen, is there room for further upscaling in Bitcoin? How to go in the future? The China Communications Industry Association 于佳宁同时提醒,比特币价格的波动是其本质属性的一部分,任何投资决策都应基于充分的市场研究和个人的风险承受能力。理解比特币在数字资产中的地位,以及数字资产与数字经济关系的深层次逻辑,对于投资决策和市场分析都具有重要意义。 At the same time, Gianning reminds that the price volatility of bitcoin is part of its properties, and that any investment decision should be based on adequate market research and personal risk tolerance. Understanding the position of bitcoin in digital assets and the underlying logic of the relationship between The digital economy is important for investment policymaking and market analysis. (文章来源:每日经济新闻)
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