吴说作者 | 谈叔
by Wu; nbsp;
本期编辑 | Colin Wu
Editor & nbsp; nbsp; Colin Wu
恰逢其时、完美的环保概念，顶级的领导团队与VC，以及主流合规打法，中国矿工们仿佛看到了第二个Filecoin。但Chia距离成功还有很久，更需要担心的是，当它完善、起步之后，还是牛市吗？
At a time when the concept of perfect environmental protection, top leadership with VC, and mainstream compliance, Chinese miners seem to have seen a second Filecoin. But Chia is still a long way from success.
Chia简介
Profile of Chia
3月19日，自称为“比特币”杀手的Chia经过三年多的开发，终于主网上线。这个项目可谓大有来头，它的创始人Bram Cohen是BitTorrent的发明人，而Chia的投资者中则包括a16z、greylock这些知名大机构，虽然项目启动时适逢熊市的开始，但主网上线却恰逢牛市，因而引来了巨大的关注量，社区热度极高。
On March 19, Chia, who claims to be a “bitcoin” killer, was developed for more than three years, and finally the main web line. This project is a remarkable event, with its founder, Bram Cohen, the inventor of BitTorrent, while Chia’s investors include a16z, greylock, a well-known large institution, which, although launched at the beginning of the project, coincides with the city of Bears, and thus attracts great attention and community heat.
Chia在很早就意识到了比特币高能耗的问题，因而它提倡绿色概念，它的白皮书甚至不叫白皮书，而是叫“绿皮书”。打开Chia的官网，也可见它的设计主要以绿色环保为主要概念。恰好由于碳中和政策，中美都因环保问题对比特币挖矿口诛笔伐。参考碳排放与环保 未来比特币挖矿的最大威胁 或是杞人忧天 如何应对
Chia, aware of the high energy consumption of Bitcoin at a very early stage, advocated the concept of green, and its white paper was not even called a white paper, but a “green paper”. Open Chia’s official network, as can be seen, and its design is mainly based on the concept of green environment. As a result of carbon neutrality and policy, China and the United States are digging up pitcoins because of environmental problems.
Chia是一条全新的公链，与以往的POW或是POS不同，它提出的概念叫Proof of Space and Time，即时空证明PoST，希望借此可以在确保安全的情况下降低“挖矿”的能耗，确保绿色。事实上，Chia连挖矿的概念也改变了，在它的系统设计中，挖矿不叫挖矿，而叫“种植”（farming），又是一个绿色的概念。
Chia is a brand-new public chain, unlike previous Pow or POSs, which proposes a concept called Proof of Space and Time, which proves PoST in time and space, in the hope that it can reduce the energy consumption of “mining” and ensure greenness while ensuring safety. In fact, Chia has changed the concept of mining, which in its system design is not mining, but “planting” and a green concept.
主网上线之后，Chia网络即开始了种植，用户可以通过贡献闲置硬盘空间的方式来参与种植。而目前整个网络还没有开启转账功能，要等到五月初才能转账。因此，目前获得chia代币XCH的唯一方式就是通过贡献硬盘空间的方式种植。
After the main web line, Chia’s network began to grow, and users can participate in planting by contributing idle hard disk space. At present, the entire network has not started to transfer until early May.
Chia的创新之处
Chia's innovator.
许多区块链项目的代码往往基于比特币、以太坊或是tendermint之类的开源代码，而Chia的代码则是从头写的，除了共识机制以外，Chia在技术上也进行了不少创新，比如它提出了一种新的专用智能合约语言，名为[chialisp](1)。
Many block chain projects often have codes based on open source codes such as Bitcoin, Etheria or Tendermint, while Chia's code is initialized and, in addition to consensus mechanisms, Chia has been technically innovative, for example, by proposing a new dedicated intellectual contract language called [chialist] (1).
在财务方面，Chia也有很大的创新，虽然是区块链项目，Chia的代币并未进行过私募或是公募。预挖的2100万个代币全部由Chia项目的公司Chia Networks所持有，而Chia的投资者们只获得了项目公司的股权，没有获得任何代币。
In financial terms, Chia is also very innovative, although it is a block chain project, and Chia’s tokens have not been raised privately or publicly.
按照Chia Networks的说法，作为一家盈利性质的公司，它的目标是最终到纳斯达克或是纽交所之类的传统股票交易所上市，而该公司的价值取决于它所持有的Chia代币的数量，也就是说，它的目标是通过上市而成为一个事实上基于Chia代币的ETF。
According to Chia Networks, as a profit-making company, its goal was to finally be listed on a traditional stock exchange such as NASDAQ or New Exchange, and the value of the company depended on the amount of Chia tokens it held, i.e., it was to be listed as a de facto Chia-based ETF.
因此，Chia也跟它的投资人们签订了对赌协议，如果它未能在主网上线后的两年之内向证券交易所提交上市申请，以及无法在主网上线后的三年之内成功上市的话，投资人都可以基于协议获取一定数量的chia代币。
Therefore, Chia also entered into a bet agreement with its investors, and if it fails to submit a listing application to the stock exchange within two years of the main web line and cannot be marketed successfully within three years of the main web line, the investor can obtain a certain amount of chia indemnities based on the agreement.
下一个明星项目或者又是一个巨大的泡沫？
The next star project or another huge bubble?
尽管Chia有着不少的创新之处，但并不意味着它不会成为又一个泡沫，最明显的例子就是前不久上线的稳定币项目fei，它的背后同样有a16z，Coinbase等大牌机构的投资，但最终给投资者造成了巨大的损失，对于Chia来说，要想成功，面临的挑战同样不少：
Despite Chia's many innovations, it does not mean that it will not become yet another bubble. The most obvious example is the recent arrival of afei, a16z, Coinbase and other large institutions whose investments are also behind it, but which ultimately cost investors a great deal. For Chia, the challenges to success are as great:
一、能耗的问题。尽管Chia提出了“绿色”的概念，但它仍然需要用户开着电脑进行种植，虽然相对于比特币的矿场式挖矿可以节约很多能源，但相比于ETH2.0的POS机制来说，仍然算不上绿色。况且，虽然它和filecoin之类的项目一样，都要求用户贡献闲置硬盘资源，但毕竟filecoin的硬盘用来存储文件，还算有用，而Chia的硬盘资源则用来种植，和比特币的asic芯片一样，并没有实际用处。可以想象，如果Chia网络流行，可能会招致和比特币网络一样“浪费”的批评。
First, energy consumption. Despite Chia’s introduction of the “green” concept, it still needs to be grown by users using computers, and while it can save much energy compared to bitcoin mining, it is still not green compared to the ETH 2.0 POS mechanism. Moreover, while, like projects like filecoin, it requires users to contribute idle hard disk resources, the filecoin hard disks are useful for storing documents, while Chia’s hard disk resources are not useful for planting, as is Bitcoin’s asic chips.
二、中心化的问题。目前由于网络转账功能尚未开启，外加没有上线任何交易所，Chia代币的价值尚未明朗，因而参与者大多以散户为主。如果Chia的价值飙升的话，可以想象会有大型的数据中心或是云存储服务商加入到挖矿中来，而全世界的云服务商数量并不多，将在很大程度上造成挖矿或者说种植的中心化。官方最初的愿景是每个人闲置的电脑与手机都可以参与，但专业矿工加入明显背离，如果官方因此修改模型，那么早期参与的矿工可能遭到损失。
Second, there is a problem of centralization. As network transfer functions have not yet started, and there is no online exchange, the value of Chia’s tokens is not clear, and the majority of participants are scattered. If Chia’s value rises, it can be imagined that large data centres or cloud storage services will join in mining, while the number of cloud service providers around the world will be small, leading to a significant degree of centralization of mining or cultivation.
三、代币过于集中。按照Chia的设计，创世团队持有预挖的2100万个代币，而此后需要经过21年，网络才会产生出这么多数量的代币。虽然Chia官方声称要持有预挖的代币，但它能否上市仍然要看监管部门的态度，毕竟这样的做法相当于直接发行一个基于XCH的ETF，而目前为止SEC尚未批准过任何加密货币的ETF产品。如果无法及时上市的话，早期投资人可以获得大量XCH，为了兑现收益，这些XCH都是未来不可忽视的抛盘力量。
According to Chia’s design, the Genesis team holds 21 million predisposes, and it will take 21 years for the network to produce this amount of coins. Although Chia’s official claims to hold pre-discovery tokens, its ability to market depends on the attitude of the regulatory authorities, after all, is tantamount to issuing directly an ETF based on XCH, which has so far not been approved by the SEC.
四、Filecoin的成功很大程度因为它赶在牛市的开始时期上线，价格步步攀升，相当于走过了一整个牛市，让绝大多数参与者获益。但以Chia追求稳妥的走势，它真正完善并上所之时，是否已经到了牛市的尾巴？
iv. Filecoin’s success has been substantial, because it has been on its way to the start of the cattle market, and prices have risen, amounting to walking through an entire cattle market, benefiting the vast majority of participants. But, with Chia, is it really perfect and up to the end of the cattle market?
此外，Chia与比特币类似，有固定时间产币量与减半周期，诉求似乎与早期的BCH类似，主要应用在支付与交易，因此挖矿模型目前比较简单，并不像Filecoin那么复杂，最终价格高低将决定矿工的收益，有可能很快会类似那些POW小币种一样达到算力/收益的平衡，甚至出现算力过剩。
In addition, Chia, like Bitcoin, has a fixed-time production and a half-percent cycle, and claims appear to be similar to earlier BCHs, applying mainly to payments and transactions, so the mining model is currently relatively simple and not as complex as Filecoin, and the final price will determine the miner's return, and it is likely that it will soon achieve arithmetic/revenue balance, or even overcapacity, similar to those of Pow.
无论如何，火爆之下，熟悉的一幕已经再次上演。在吴说区块链多个矿工社群中，已有不少矿工开始布局Chia。矿工们表述，目前8T以上的机械硬盘严重供不应求，同时其他Chia挖矿相关设备也在哄抢。牛市中赚得大笔利润的矿工、以及没有赶上BTC、ETH、Filecoin挖矿的资金，都希望不要错过Chia。但由于对Chia未来的不确定性，很多人也选择租赁电脑进行挖矿。（由于Chia还在发展中，内容有什么问题欢迎探讨指正）
In any case, a familiar scene has re-emerged under fire. Many miners have begun to lay Chia in several communities of miners in the Wu-Nang block chain. Miners say that now more than 8Ts of mechanical hard disks are in short supply, while other Chia mining-related equipment is being looted.
[1]:https://chialisp.com
风险提示
Risk hints
根据银保监会等五部门发布的《关于防范以“虚拟货币”“区块链”名义进行非法集资的风险提示》，请大家树立正确的投资理念，本文内容报道不对任何经营与投资活动推广进行背书，请投资者提高风险防范意识。吴说区块链刊载内容未经许可，禁止进行转载、复制及建立镜像等任何使用，违者将追究法律责任。
According to the Risk Alert on the Prevention of Illegal Financing in the name of the “virtual currency” “block chain” issued by five departments, among others, the Superintendence of Silver Insurance, please establish the correct concept of investment. This report does not endorse any business or investment promotion, and invites investors to raise their awareness of risk prevention. The Uxiang block chain contains unlicensed content, prohibits any use such as reproducing, copying, and creating mirrors, and the offender will be held legally accountable.
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