对于突如其来的大跌，有网友表示：“该来的总会来”。有谨慎的投资者表示，这么高位，我先清仓，空一下。
For the sudden drop, there's an Internet friend who says, "It's always time to come." A prudent investor says, so high, I'll clean up.
值得注意的是，上周，比特币持续疯狂的上涨走势，一举突破4万美元关口，再度创下历史新高。彭博社9日称，比特币刚刚经过有史以来最好的一周，在截至8日的7天里飙升约40%。
It is worth noting that last week, Bitcoin continued its crazy upward trend, breaking the 40,000-dollar threshold, once again reaching an all-time high. According to Bloomberg, on 9th, Bitcoin had just risen by about 40 per cent in the seven days up to 8 days, after the best week of its history.
美国《华尔街日报》8日称，比特币涨势在最近数日已加快，2日首次突破3万美元，然后6日发力依次升破3.6万美元和3.7万美元，7日又连续跨过3个千位美元关口，抵达4万美元。与此同时，CoinDesk的数据显示，所有加密货币的市值总额首次突破1万亿美元。
The 8-day Wall Street Journal of the United States states that the surge in Bitcoin has accelerated in recent days, with the first breakthrough of $30,000 in two days, followed by a six-day surge of $360 million and $370 million, and a seven-day succession of three thousand dollar crossings, reaching $40,000. At the same time, CoinDesk’s data show that the total market value of all encrypted currencies for the first time exceeded $1 trillion.
比特币价格从去年3月低点3867美元上涨至今，涨幅已超过900%。路透社称，各国政府增加支出以削弱新冠疫情对经济造成的影响，引发投资者对通胀加剧和美元贬值的担忧。投资者需求的增加，推动了比特币价格的暴涨，他们被全球超低收益率和负利率背景下的快速获利前景所吸引。另外，《华尔街日报》认为，比特币等加密货币价格的飙升，也得益于电子支付巨头贝宝（PayPal）在去年允许通过其平台交易此类资产。
The price of bitcoin has risen from a low of $3867 last March to the present, rising by more than 900%. Reuters claims that increased spending by governments to reduce the economic impact of the new crown epidemic has raised concerns among investors about rising inflation and the depreciation of the dollar.
但也有数据显示，下跌的风险或随时降临，根据研究机构Flipside Crypto的数据，活跃比特币账户的数量已接近2017年末的历史高位。《华尔街日报》援引一些专业人士的话称，比特币可能即将迎来回调。加密货币基金管理公司Panxora集团首席执行官加文·史密斯表示，虽然自己对比特币的发展持乐观态度，但他提醒投资者要谨慎小心，比特币远不是“一棵神奇的摇钱树”。
But there are also data that suggest that the risk of a fall may be imminent, and according to the research institute Flipside Crypto, the number of active bitcoin accounts is approaching historical highs in late 2017. The Wall Street Journal quotes some professionals that Bitcoin may be on the verge of a comeback. The chief executive officer of the crypto-IMF management company Panxora Group, Gavin Smith, said that, while he was optimistic about the development of bitcoin, he warned investors that bitcoin was far from “a magical rock tree”.
Rosenberg Research经济学家和策略师戴维·罗森伯格(David Rosenberg)表示：“在这么短的时间内比特币的抛物线走势是非常不正常的。”
Rosenberg Research economist and strategist David Rosenberg said: “It is very unusual for bitcoin's parabola to move in such a short period of time.”
而最近的加密货币热潮正显示出融涨的迹象！融涨指的是市场中的多头越来越多，市场情绪超级乐观，市场不断走高甚至加速，最终导致市场崩溃。
And the recent boom in crypto-currency is showing signs of melting! It refers to the growing number of markets, their super-optimism, their increasing ups and even their acceleration, which eventually leads to market collapse.
Skybridge Capital的创始人斯卡拉穆奇（Anthony Scaramucci）持有比特币的大量股份。但即便是他，也表示投资者需要对比特币保持警惕。
Skybridge Capital’s founder, Anthony Scaramucci, holds large shares of Bitcoin. But even he suggests that investors need to be vigilant.
他表示，人们虽然已经开始接受比特币，而且由于它出现在很少的投资组合中，有很大的增长空间。
He indicated that, while the bitcoin had begun to be accepted, there was considerable room for growth as it appeared in a very small portfolio.
尽管如此，斯卡拉穆奇认为比特币仍是一种不稳定的资产，投资它依然是存在风险的。在他看来，比特币存在崩溃的趋势。现在是调整的时候了，而且调整可能很猛烈。
Nevertheless, Scalamucci believes that Bitcoin is still an unstable asset and that investing in it is still risky. In his view, there is a tendency for Bitcoin to collapse. Now is the time to adjust, and the adjustment may be strong.
斯卡拉穆奇认为，比特币可能会突然暴跌20%至50%，因此投资者必须非常谨慎。
Scalamucci argued that Bitcoin could suddenly drop by between 20 and 50 per cent, so investors had to be very careful.
截至北京时间下午6点半左右，过去24小时内，加密数字货币市场有超20万人爆仓，爆仓金额达141亿。
As of about 6:30 p.m. Beijing time, in the last 24 hours there had been over 200,000 explosions in the encrypted digital money market, amounting to 141 billion.
一时间，比特币“泡沫”说再一次甚嚣尘上。
At one point, Bitcoin "foam" said it was full of dust again.
1月10日周日，曾在全球最大对冲基金桥水担任分析师一职的Howard Wang撰文直言，比特币就是一个巨大的泡沫，现在来看，很难预测其顶部。
On Sunday, 10 January, Howard Wang, who had worked as an analyst in the largest hedge fund bridge in the world, wrote that Bitcoin was a huge bubble and that it was difficult to predict its top.
首先，Howard Wang表示，以目前的形式来看，比特币并非是可行的货币替代品。
First, Howard Wang indicated that, in its current form, Bitcoin was not a viable alternative to currency.
其原因在于，若以比特币而非美元来衡量美国的年度通胀率，那么美国2018年的通胀率就达到了275%，2019年则为通缩-50%，到了2020年，通缩率进一步达到-75%。
The reason for this is that, if the annual inflation rate in the United States is measured in bitcoin instead of the United States dollar, the inflation rate in the United States reached 275 per cent in 2018, deflation - 50 per cent in 2019 and further deflation - 75 per cent by 2020.
上述分析师称，一个健康的社会无法在这样的价格波动下运转，即使比特币可能在未来发展成熟，但就目前的情况来看，这只是一种投机性资产。
According to the analysts mentioned above, a healthy society cannot function under such price fluctuations, and even though Bitcoin may mature in the future, it is a speculative asset in the present situation.
由此，他进一步认为，几乎可以肯定的是，比特币正处于另一个泡沫之中，目前的增长速度不可持续。若是比特币在2021年也像2020年一样疯狂，这一数字货币的市值将超过流通中的美元总值。
As a result, he further argued that it was almost certain that Bitcoin was in another bubble and that the current growth rate was unsustainable. If Bitcoin was as crazy in 2021 as in 2020, the market value of that number would exceed the total dollar value in circulation.
在Howard Wang看来，现在投资者不是喜欢躲在诸如比特币这样没有基本面的市场里，就是喜欢特斯拉那样增长有故事、还给人留下足够想象空间的资产。
In Howard Wang's view, investors now prefer to hide in a market without basics like Bitcoin, or to grow stories like Tesla, leaving enough room for imagination.
按这样的势头来看，Howard Wang再无信心像2017年12月时一样对比特币“喊顶”。他甚至提出，鉴于用于衡量价格的全球法币体系本身就是一个更大的泡沫，预测比特币泡沫的顶部是十分困难的。
With this momentum, Howard Wang no longer has the confidence to “scream at the top” of Bitcoin, as he did in December 2017. He even suggested that it would be very difficult to predict the top of a bitcoin bubble, given that the global French system used to measure prices is itself a bigger bubble.
投资者们被迫持有高达18万亿美元的负收益率债券，与此同时，数万亿美元的钞票正在全球各地被印制。 投资者正在溺水，他们抓住的救命稻草就是数字货币。
Investors of
Howard Wang写道，尽管持续的低收益率会提高价格并压低所有市场的预期回报率，许多投资者仍会选择押注收益为未知数的风险资产，而非注定蒙受损失的债券。
Howard Wang wrote that, although a persistently low rate of return would raise prices and lower the expected rate of return in all markets, many investors would choose to stake returns as unknown risk assets rather than as bonds destined to suffer losses.
简单来说，只要低利率、大量印钞的趋势延续下去，投资者就会逃离国债，资本就将推高价格，压低收益率，并在此过程中制造出资产泡沫。
Simply put, as long as the trend of low interest rates and large banknote printing continues, investors will flee the national debt and capital will push up prices, reduce yields and create asset bubbles in the process.
短期之内，政府和央行刺激措施所印下的钞票还残留有一定的影响力。因此，只要利率保持在低水平，印钞也在不断持续，比特币狂欢就会继续下去，波动性和资产泡沫都会成为无法改变的事实。
In the short term, the government and central banks still have some influence on the banknotes that are printed as a result of stimulus measures. So, as long as interest rates remain low, and printing continues, the Bitcoins party will continue, and volatility and asset bubbles will become immutable.
作为全球市值最高的加密数字货币，比特币在两个交易日一度暴跌21%，最低跌至32,389美元。在比特币1月8日创出近4.2万美元的历史新高之后，这款加密数字货币创出自去年全球市场首次受到新冠肺炎疫情影响以来最大两日跌幅。
As the world’s highest-market crypto-digital currency, Bitcoin fell by 21% on two trading days, down to $32,389. After Bitcoin’s historic high of almost $42,000 on 8 January, the crypto-digital currency fell by the largest two days since the global market was first affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic last year.
加密数字货币交易所Luno的商业开发主管维贾伊·阿亚尔（Vijay Ayyar）表示：“这是否是更大修正的开始还有待确定。鉴于我们现在看到比特币跌破了抛物线式上涨趋势，所以可能就是。”比特币的价格在过去一年上涨了四倍多，让人回想起2017年的狂热。在当时比特币价格暴跌之前，加密数字货币先成为人们热议的话题。
The commercial development manager of the encrypted digital currency exchange, Luno Vijay Ayyar, said, “It is still to be determined whether this is the beginning of a much larger correction. Given that we now see bitcoin collapsing into parabolic upwards, it may be.” Bitcoin prices have increased more than fourfold in the past year, reminiscent of the fanaticism of 2017.
对此，Guggenheim Investments的首席投资官斯科特·迈纳德（Scott Minerd）发推文称：“是时候把一些钱拿出来了。比特币的抛物线式上涨在短期内是不可持续的。”迈纳德在去年12月曾预计，比特币最终将会上涨至40万美元。
In response, Scott Minerd, the chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments, wrote: "It's time to get some money out. Bitcoin's parabolic rise is not sustainable in the short term." Maynard predicted last December that Bitcoin would eventually rise to $400,000.
比特币的真正信徒认为，比特币本轮大涨不同于过去的繁荣-萧条周期，因为随着机构投资者的杀入，加密数字货币资产已经成熟，并越来越被视为抵御美元疲软和通胀风险的合法对冲。但也有人担心，这轮大涨没有任何原因，主要是受到大量财政和货币刺激的推动，而且比特币不太可能成为一种可行的货币替代品。
A true believer in Bitcoin believes that the surge in Bitcoin’s current cycle is different from the previous boom-bust cycle, because, with institutional investors killing, encrypted digital monetary assets have matured and are increasingly seen as a legitimate hedge against the risks of weakening the dollar and inflation. There is also concern that the surge has no cause, mainly driven by substantial fiscal and monetary stimulus, and that Bitcoin is unlikely to be a viable alternative to currency.
在Luno的阿亚尔看来，比特币已摆脱了最近的暴跌，但却会继续下跌。他表示，在“开始真正的修正之前，”比特币的价格将可能重新上涨至4.4万美元。
According to Runo's Arar, Bitcoin has escaped from its recent collapse, but it will continue to fall. He said that the price of bitcoin could rise again to $44,000 before “starting a real fix”.
算法交易
Algorithm transactions
根据调研公司CryptoCompare提供的数据，伴随比特币上周日的暴跌，全球六大加密数字货币交易所的成交量也较工作日期间增长了10%。这代表着与前11个月相比的重大转变，当时周末成交量比传统交易时间低13%。
According to the research company CryptoCompare, with Bitcoin falling last Sunday, six of the world’s largest crypto-digital money exchanges also recorded a 10% increase in turnover over the working day. This represents a significant shift from the previous 11 months, when transactions were 13% lower on weekends than traditional trading times.
疯狂的周末给大大小小的市场参与者带来了新的挑战，他们不得不在传统的办公时间之外安排办公桌，或者冒着错过潜在赚钱或破坏性价格波动的风险。
Mad weekends bring new challenges to market participants, large and small, who have to set up desks outside traditional office hours or run the risk of missing potential for earning money or damaging price fluctuations.
是什么导致了这种变化呢？根据对多名加密数字货币经纪人和交易员的采访，对冲基金等美国较大投资者在市场上的活动越来越多，特别是他们对交易算法的使用，推动了比特币的大涨。
What has led to this change? According to interviews with a number of encrypted digital money brokers and traders, the growing activity of larger United States investors, such as hedge funds, in the market, especially their use of transaction algorithms, has contributed to a sharp rise in bitcoins.
投资者使用算法来买卖更小块的比特币，这不会对价格产生太大影响。加密数字货币交易所Coinbase在去年12月的一篇博客文章中称，美国软件公司MicroStrategy使用该技术购买了价值4.25亿美元的比特币。“过去，交易活动是交易者在某个时刻购买特定数量的基础上进行的，这在工作日更为常见，”Gemini的英国负责人布莱尔·哈利迪（Blair Halliday）说。“此时购买的数量太大，所以这些交易会持续到周末。”
Investors use algorithms to buy and sell smaller bits of bitcoins, which does not have much impact on prices. The crypto-digital money exchange Coinbase, in a blog article last December, stated that US software company MicroStrategy used the technology to purchase bitcoins worth $425 million. “In the past, transactions were conducted by traders on the basis of a certain amount at a certain point in time, which was more common on working days,” says Blair Halliday, the British head of Gemini, who said. “The amount of purchases is too large at this time, so these transactions will continue until the weekend.”
根据美国研究机构Coin Metrics的数据，圣诞节期间，主要加密数字货币交易所的买入价和卖出价之间的差距扩大，表明流动性减弱。波动性也大幅上升。比特币市场一直是无休运行的，在不可预测的时间为价格波动创造了条件。不过从历史成交情况来看，散户和日内交易者推动了这一趋势。
According to the American research institute Coin Metrics, the gap between the purchase and sale prices of major encrypted digital money exchanges has widened during Christmas, indicating a weakening of liquidity. Volatility has also increased significantly. The Bitcoin market has been running endlessly, creating conditions for price fluctuations in unpredictable times.
但在比特币最近的大涨过程中，美国大型投资者在决定价格走势方面发挥了更大的作用。自去年年初以来，比特币的价格上涨了5倍多，上周达到创纪录的4.2万美元。随着对冲基金和更传统的投资经理的进入，算法交易的作用已经增加，导致比特币的价格在周末出现大幅波动。
Since the beginning of last year, the price of bitcoin has increased more than fivefold, reaching a record $42,000 last week. As hedge funds and more traditional investment managers enter, the role of algorithmic transactions has increased, leading to significant price fluctuations in bitcoin over the weekend.
加密数字货币市场中的算法交易员使用的技术与主流资产类似。其中的一种被称为时间加权平均价格（time-weighted average price），允许交易者在指定的时间内买卖一定数量的比特币。另一种是成交量加权平均（volume-weighted average），交易者可以根据给定时间数字加密货币市场的成交量下单。
One is known as the time-weighted average price (time-weighted average price), which allows traders to buy and sell a certain amount of bitcoins over a specified period of time. The other is the volume-weighted average (volume-weighted average), which allows traders to encrypt orders from the currency market according to the given time number.
尽管如此，与传统资产不同，加密数字货币市场没有休息，这对于希望对周末或公共假日可能发生的价格波动事件做出快速反应的投资者来说也是一个积极因素。加密数字货币交易所Cumberland的全球主管克里斯·齐尔克（Chris Zuehlke）说：“如果有事件发生在周末期间，在这个时间段参与加密数字货币交易的投资人能够立即对冲风险--这对市场而言是一个非常强大的东西。”
Nevertheless, unlike traditional assets, there is no rest in the encrypted digital currency market, which is also a positive factor for investors wishing to respond quickly to possible price fluctuations on weekends or public holidays. Chris Zuehlke, the global director of the encrypted digital currency exchange in Cumberland, said: “If an event occurs during the weekend, investors involved in the encrypted digital currency transactions during this time period are able to hedge immediately - a very powerful thing for the market.”
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