价格持续走高
prices keep going up
据小李了解,国内多家交易平台中,比特币交易除了采用T+0、不设涨跌幅限制、每周七天24小时交易之外,其他都与股票交易相似,提供买卖5档报价、实时成交数据、K线图等。此前平台还提供融资融币的杠杆服务,支持的最高杠杆倍数为5倍,但在监管部门介入后,目前已经停止杠杆交易。
According to Li, in many domestic trading platforms, Bitcoin transactions are similar to stock transactions, except for T+0, no upward and drop limits, 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and offer five-sale offers, real-time transaction data, and K-line maps. Previously, the platform also provided leverage for the financing of coins, supported by a maximum leverage of five times the number of times, but now, following regulatory intervention, the leverage trade has stopped.
从2009年比特币诞生之初至今,比特币价格涨幅惊人。从最初1美元可以买到1300多枚比特币,到2013年12月4日达到了1147美元的历史高位,比特币价格一路大涨。
Since the birth of Bitcoin in 2009, bitcoin prices have risen dramatically. From the start of the dollar, more than 1,300 bitcoins could be purchased, reaching a historic high of $1147 on 4 December 2013, with a steep rise in bitcoin prices.
据相关统计,过去一年间比特币涨幅高达267%;过去两年间涨幅为740%;过去四年间涨幅则为113.3倍。
According to relevant statistics, bitcoin increased by 267 per cent over the past year; 740 per cent over the past two years; and 113.3 times over the past four years.
比特币价格何以持续走高?招商证券刘泽晶团队曾发文表示,主要原因有二:一是随着部分国家地区经济波动风险的增加,避险情绪促使资金涌入比特币投资市场;二是比特币和区块链概念逐渐被越来越多人理解和关注。“这两点是互相佐证的,人们会选择比特币进行资金避险恰恰从侧面反映了比特币和区块链正逐渐被正视。”
How does the price of the bitcoin continue to rise? The company Liu Zejing, a broker, has written that the two main reasons are: first, as the risk of economic volatility in some parts of the country increases, the risk of flight has led to an influx of funds into the bitcoin investment market; second, the concepts of bitcoin and block chains are increasingly being understood and taken into account. “These two points are mutually supportive, and the choice of bitcoin for financial avoidance is precisely a side-by-side reflection of the fact that bitcoin and block chains are being seen.”
国泰君安证券研究所通信首席分析师宋嘉吉表示,比特币的总量是确定的,总共2100万枚,且是以代码的形式确定(code is law),如果当做投资品看,它具有稀缺性和不可再生性,且目前市值达500亿美元,日成交超10亿美元。
According to Song Jiaji, the chief analyst of communications at the National Thai King Ann Securities Institute, the total amount of Bitcoin is set at 21 million and defined in code form (code is law) if it is scarce and non-renewable as an investment, with a current market value of $50 billion and a daily transaction of over $1 billion.
日本成交量最大
“我们平台上线以来,成交量稳步攀升,注册用户不断增长,至今已有10倍以上增量。去年我们平台的推荐人超过3500人,今年已经突破12000人。”国内比特币交易平台FreeWil-lex COO姚智杰表示。
“Our platform has grown steadily since it got online, and registered users have grown by more than 10 times. Last year, our platform has more than 3,500 nominees, and this year it has surpassed 12,000. The country’s Bitcoin trading platform, FreeWil-lex Coo Yao Jie, says.
火币网最新数据显示,在全球各国比特币交易成交量排名中,日本成交量占46.4%;其次是美国,占26.4%;中国排第三,交易量降至10%。此前,中国比特币交易量占总交易量的比重一度高达80%-95%。
The latest data from the gunnet show that Japan accounted for 46.4 per cent of the world’s Bitcoin turnover; followed by the United States, with 26.4 per cent; and China’s third largest, with the volume falling to 10 per cent. Previously, China’s Bitcoin trade accounted for as much as 80-95 per cent of total transactions.
业内人士指出,推动比特币上涨的力量主要来自中国、日本和韩国的投资者。Cryp-toCompare网站近日数据显示,在日本和韩国,比特币的交易价格要比全球平均价格高出300多美元。日本交易平台bitFlyer报价最高为333200日元(约2998美元)。
According to industry sources, the power behind the Bitcoin rise comes mainly from investors in China, Japan, and South Korea. Recent data from Cryp-toCompare suggest that Bitco’s transaction prices in Japan and South Korea are more than $300 higher than the global average.
“从某种意义上说,比特币更加稀缺。此外,其天生具有较好的流通便利性,另外区块链技术的先进性也使比特币受到热捧。区块链技术的去中心化特点让基于这种技术的资产具备透明性,对于交易双方来说更具保障。随着比特币应用范围的扩大,人们对比特币的熟悉程度不断加深,其需求会越来越大。”姚智杰指出。
“In a sense, bitcoin is scarcer. Moreover, it is inherently more easily circulated, and Bitcoin is greatly appreciated by the technological sophistication of the block chain. The decentralization of block chain technology makes assets based on this technology more transparent and more secure for both parties to the transaction. As Bitcoin’s application expands, its familiarity with bitcoin will increase.” Yao Jiji pointed out.
事实上,比特币是否具有投资价值,最核心的因素在于各国政府的态度。比特币诞生之初那几年,各国政府视之为洪水猛兽,但情况日渐发生改变。
Indeed, the central factor in the investment value of Bitcoin is the attitude of governments. In the early years of Bitcoin’s existence, governments treated it as a flood beast, but the situation was changing.
2013年6月底,德国议会决定持有比特币一年以上将予以免税后,比特币被德国财政部认定为“记账单位”。
At the end of June 2013, after the German Parliament had decided that Bitcoin would be exempt for more than one year, Bitcoin was recognized by the German Ministry of Finance as a “unit of account”.
2013年8月,美国得克萨斯州地方法院法官阿莫斯·马赞特在一起比特币虚拟对冲基金的案件中裁定,比特币是一种货币,应该将其纳入金融法规的监管范围之内。
In August 2013, Amos Mazant, a judge of the United States District Court of Texas, ruled in a Bitcoin virtual hedge fund case that Bitcoin was a currency that should be included in the regulation of financial regulations.
“年初,监管部门限制了国内交易所平台的提币。6月1日,OKcoin、火币等主流比特币交易平台获准提币,但额度受限。由于比特币去中心化特征,并非某组织发行,未来如何合理监管依然是需要面对的问题。”宋嘉吉说。
On June 1, the mainstream Bitcoin trading platform, OKcoin, and coins, was allowed to raise money, but at a limited level. Because of the centralization of Bitcoin, which is not issued by an organization, reasonable regulation in the future remains a problem.”
“数字黄金”or泡沫
"Digital gold" or foam
比特币备受追捧,也带火了以太坊、莱特币等虚拟竞争币,其涨幅同样令人惊愕:据OKcoin数据,莱特币从年初不到25元人民币/枚,涨至最高253.98元/枚。
Bitcoin has been well received and has also set fire to virtual competitions such as Etheria and Leitecoin, the increase of which is equally shocking: according to OKcoin, it has risen from less than 25 yuan/me at the beginning of the year to a maximum of 253.98 yuan/me.
5月31日,国内两大虚拟货币交易平台火币网和OKCoin接连宣布上线以太坊交易。虚拟货币交易平台Coinbase的数据显示,以太坊的价格在今年之前一直平稳,从今年3月份迎来了上涨潮。就在火币网和OKCoin宣布上线以太坊前的5月18日到5月25日一周,以太坊从89.5美元涨到195.27美元,涨幅达118%。
According to data from the virtual currency exchange platform Coinbase, prices were stable until this year, rising from March this year. On 18 May until 25 May, just before the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea announced their arrival, the number rose from $89.5 to $195.27, an increase of 118 per cent.
在比特币价格高企的阶段,上述竞争币成为投资者的替代选择。在5月22日美国谷歌搜索量排行中,以太坊搜索排名第18位,热度并不输排在前面的比特币。
During the period of high Bitcoin prices, the competition became an alternative option for investors. On May 22, the US Google Search Line ranked 18th in the Tahrir Search, and the heat did not fall ahead of the Bitcoin.
“从民间投资看,比特币作为被普遍接受的区块链资产鼻祖,具有很好的口碑。虽然所谓的竞争币和山寨币不断冲击市场,但是比特币的鼻祖地位一直比较稳固。虽然随着技术发展,比特币现有技术出现了一些落后,但是区块链技术也在不断升级,比特币可以从中不断获取新的生命力。”姚智杰说。
“In terms of private investment, Bitcoin has a good reputation as a well-accepted asset in the chain of blocks. Although so-called competitive coins and mountain coins continue to hit the market, Bitcoin’s status has been stronger.
对于比特币,目前人们的态度两极分化,有人认为其是“数字黄金”,极具稀缺性,可与黄金媲美;有人则担心这是又一场泡沫。
For Bitcoin, the attitude is currently polarized, with some arguing that it is “digital gold”, which is extremely scarce and comparable to gold; some fear that it is yet another bubble.
姚智杰表示,比特币总数是2100万枚,目前产量经受了两次折半,在算力不能倍增的情况下,供给实际在下降,但是应用方面正在提升。比如商店接受比特币支付,给比特币应用打开了一条渠道,所以供需失衡目前不存在。
According to Yao Jijie, with a total of 21 million bitcoins, production is now two-and-a-half folds, and the supply is actually falling in the event that there is no multiplier capacity, but the application is increasing. For example, shops accept bitcoins, opening up a channel for bitcoins applications, and the supply-demand imbalance is currently non-existent.
“受多重因素影响,比特币价格波动较大,且是24小时不设涨跌幅的连续交易,投资风险较大。但目前看,比特币不光是炒作币价,其背后的区块链技术才是根本,长期的发展仍值得期待。”宋嘉吉表示。
“As a result of multiple factors, bitcoin prices fluctuate more and are a 24-hour series of transactions with no increase or decrease, investment risks are greater. But now, bitcoin is not just about currency, but the technology behind it is fundamental, and long-term development is still to be expected.”
宋嘉吉认为,比特币背后的区块链技术对数字货币而言是重要的可选技术,其8年以来的安全运行为未来各国推行数字货币提供了“简化版”案例。此外,由比特币延伸出的代币概念驱动了ICO(Initial Coin Offering),即在社区内发行针对某个项目的代币凭证(To-ken),这已成为区块链创业团队重要的融资手段。相比于传统VC模式,ICO最大限度减少了信息不对称,提高了效率。目前ICO尚属萌芽期,未来应该进行合理监管。
Song Jiaji believes that the block chain technology behind Bitcoin is an important option for digital money, and that its secure operation for eight years has provided a “simplified version” of the case of future digital currencies in countries. Moreover, the concept of coins extended by Bitcoin has driven the ICO (Initial Coin Offering), that is to say, the issuance within the community of a project-specific token (To-ken), which has become an important financing tool for the sector chain’s business team.
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