3月12日，是比3天前美股熔断，还悲惨的一天；全球股市都在发生熔断！
March 12 is a sad day, three days ago, when the American stock was melted; the global stock market is melting!
这天全球的股市，同一片天空，同一个股灾。不只是暴跌日，而是熔断日。菲律宾股市熔断，泰国股市熔断，巴基斯坦股市熔断，英法德、印尼等接近熔断，美股开盘也熔断了……除了中国，全世界都好像熔断了。
The world’s stock market, the same sky, is one and the same. It is not just a day of collapse, it is a day of smelting. The Philippine stock market is melting, the Thai stock market is melting, the Pakistani stock market is smelting, and the American stock is smelting away, as is the case in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Indonesia, etc. The world seems to be smelting apart from China.
美股这次熔断，是本周的第二次，创下了历史；从高位砸下来，美股跌幅近30%，正式进入到熊市！这次全球的溃败，超过2008年，比经济危机还危机！令人没想到的是，我们不仅见证美股的新历史！同时，在傍晚时分，也见证了比特币少有的大崩盘。
This melting of the United States stock was the second time in history this week; it fell by almost 30 per cent from a high position, officially entering the Bear City! This global collapse, more than in 2008, is more dangerous than the economic crisis! What is surprising is that we are witnessing not only the new history of the United States share!
据火币全球站数据显示，在连续半个小时的时间内，BTC跌幅超过20%。在18.47时，一根跌幅5.44%的大阴线，直接将价格跌下了5555.55美元。市值蒸发211亿美元。
According to the Treasure Global Station data, BTC fell by more than 20 per cent over a half-hour period. At 18.47, a fall of 5.44 per cent was recorded, directly reducing the price by $555.555. The market value evaporated by $21.1 billion.
最为凄惨的是合约市场已经多空双爆了。与之相对应的是，数字货币合约市场同样未能幸免。根据币Coin最新数据显示，在过去24小时全网总计爆仓高达20亿美元。其中，比特币爆仓12.9亿美元，以太坊爆仓1.74亿美元，EOS爆仓6127万美元，BCH爆仓8427万美元，LTC爆仓2860万美元，XRP爆仓3654万美元，BSV爆仓4716万美元，ETC爆仓983万美元，TRX爆仓361万美元。最大的单笔爆仓发生在火币交易所，价值5832万美元的BTC被爆。据QKL123数据，加密货币总市值在24小时内暴跌24%以上，只有1.3万亿元，在此次快速暴跌中，接近8万余人成了爆仓受害者。
The saddest of all is that the contract market has exploded. By contrast, the market for digital money contracts has not been spared. The latest data from Coin shows that the entire network has exploded for the last 24 hours, amounting to $2 billion. Of this amount, $1.29 billion has exploded in Bitcoin, $174 million in Taiku, $6.27 million in EOS, $8.42 million in BCH, $28.6 million in LTC, $3.64 million in XRP, $4.76 million in BSV, $9.83 million in ETC, and $3.61 million in TRX. The largest single-bureau has been destroyed at the Coal Exchange, with $5.832 million in BTC. According to QKL123, the total value of encrypted money has dropped by more than 24 per cent in 24 hours, with only $130,000 in LTC, and nearly 80,000 people have been victims of the explosion during this rapid crash.
从7400美元到5555.55美元，短时间内波动1900美元跌幅，已经让比特币价格比2019年的最高点价格12549美元，跌去了一半，创2019年5月初以来新低，接近2018年11月瀑布前价格。可以说，比特币产量减半还没到来，价格减半提前到来。
From $7,400 to $555.55, the short-term fluctuation of $1,900 has already caused Bitcoin prices to fall by half from its peak price of $125,449 in 2019, reaching a new low since the beginning of May 2019, close to the pre-Ball Falls in November 2018. It can be said that half of Bitcoin production has not yet come, and half of prices have come ahead of it.
哀鸿一片之下，很多加密货币的投资者不淡定了，难道以往比特币“避险资产”的神话已然破灭？甚至成为了高风险资产的代名词？
Are the myths of Bitcoin's “risk-free assets” broken down in the past, and even become a noun for high-risk assets?
不管怎样？我们还是要对此次比特币大跌有个客观而理性的认识，并及时调整我们的投资策略。
Anyway, we also need to have an objective and rational understanding of this bitcoin fall and to adjust our investment strategy in a timely manner.
外部环境恶化比特币难以幸免
The deterioration of the external environment Bitcoin is inevitable
据不完全统计，3月12日一天内，美国、巴西、加拿大、泰国、菲律宾、韩国、巴基斯坦、印尼等8个国家股市发生熔断，没有熔断机制的印度股指盘中暴跌超8%，创2008年以来最大单日跌幅。
According to incomplete statistics, on 12 March, eight countries, the United States, Brazil, Canada, Thailand, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, Pakistan and Indonesia, experienced a break-up in stock markets, with India's stockboards without a break-up mechanism falling by more than 8 per cent, the largest single-day fall since 2008.
国际油价继续大幅走低，市场对供需失衡的担忧进一步加剧。截至记者发稿，WTI原油主力合约跌超4%，布伦特原油主力合约跌超6%。
International oil prices continue to fall sharply, and market concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand are further exacerbated. As journalists write, the WTI crude oil master contract fell by more than 4 per cent, and the Brent crude oil master contract fell by more than 6 per cent.
现货黄金跌破1580美元/盎司，日内跌幅超过3%，现货白银日内下跌5.2%。
Cash gold fell by $1.580 per ounce, more than 3 per cent per day, and spot silver fell by 5.2 per cent per day.
雪上加霜的是，芝加哥商业交易所和芝加哥期货交易所的母公司芝商所集团（CME）于当地时间3月11日表示，为减少可能有助于新冠病毒传播的大型集会，将在周五盘后关闭其芝加哥交易大厅。这是目前美国第一个为应对疫情而关闭交易大厅的主要交易所。
Added to this is the fact that the Chicago Business Exchange and the Chicago Futures Exchange’s parent company, the CME Group, stated on 11 March local time that, in order to reduce major gatherings that could contribute to the spread of the new crown virus, it would close its Chicago trading hall after Friday. This is the first major exchange in the United States to close the trading hall in response to the epidemic.
外部环境的恶化造成了此次比特币的大跌。比如Covid-19冠状病毒周三被世界卫生组织宣布为全球性大流行病，它将使全球经济步入衰退的恐慌情绪进一步被点燃，包括股票、原油、垃圾债所有风险资产都在大跌，市场缺乏现金，比特币自然也不能幸免。
The deterioration of the external environment has led to a sharp drop in Bitcoin. For example, the Covid-19 coronary virus was declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization on Wednesday, which will further inflame the panic of the global economy into recession, including the collapse of stocks, crude oil, garbage debt, all risky assets, lack of cash in the market, and by nature Bitcoin.
期待的比特币减半行情呢？
What about the bitcoin cut in half?
在比特币历史上，比特币的前两轮减半都将推动比特币价格大幅上涨。但这一规律似乎在今年失灵了。
In Bitcoin’s history, halving the first two rounds of Bitcoin will drive the price of bitcoin up sharply. But this pattern seems to have failed this year.
距离5月18日比特币的第三次减产，仅剩下2个多月时间了。然而比特币在达到2020年最高点10457美元以来之后便一直跌跌不休。今年2月20日，比特币单日跌幅近1000美元；3月8日，比特币失守8000美元关口，跌超10%，被寄予厚望的“减半”不免遭到调侃：储备减半，指的是价格减半资产减半。
However, Bitcoin has been falling since its peak of $10,457 in 2020. On 20 February this year, Bitcoin fell by almost $1,000 a day; on 8 March, Bitcoin lost $8,000, by more than 10%, and the hoped-for “50%” was not spared: by halving reserves, it meant halving the value of its assets by half.
加密交易所BitMex首席执行官Arthur Hayes仍然相信比特币作为避险资产的地位，并称2020年底，比特币还是可能会反弹至2万美元。
Arthur Hayes, Chief Executive Officer of the encryption exchange BitMex, continues to believe in the status of Bitcoin as a hedge asset, stating that by the end of 2020 Bitcoin could still rebound to $20,000.
有数据显示，比特币偶尔能成为传统市场的一个有效替代品。Wind针对全球大类资产所做的数据分析显示，2020年年初至今，比特币的收益率为10.53%，在全球大类资产中排名第一，COMEX黄金则位列第二。值得一提的是，比特币在2019年的收益率为87.48%。
Data show that Bitcoin is occasionally an effective alternative to traditional markets. Wind’s analysis of global asset classes shows that by the beginning of 2020 to date, Bitcoins had a rate of return of 10.53%, ranking first among global assets, and COMEX gold ranked second. It is worth noting that Bitcoins had a rate of return of 87.48% in 2019.
同时，据前两次比特币减半行情的统计数据显示：
At the same time, according to the statistics for the first two halves of bitcoin:
2012年的减半前60天，这个阶段大致以震荡上升的走势迎接减半，减半过后稍作横盘后便出现了一段涨幅为20倍的主升浪。
In 2012, 60 days before the halving of the scale, the period was roughly halved by the upward trend of shocks, followed by a 20-fold rise in a major wave after the reduction in the length of the scale.
2016年的减半前60天，BTC在经历过一段“静默”期后突然发动了一波70%涨幅的“小高潮”，在实际减半前20天左右结束上涨，以回调下跌的方式穿越减半节点。当然后面的剧情大家都看到了，BTC自此开启了一轮史上最大的牛市行情。
Sixty days before the halving of 2016, BTC suddenly launched a wave of 70% rises after a “silent” period, ending up about 20 days before the reduction in real terms and moving back through the halving node. Of course, as you can see, the BTC has since started the largest ever round of cattle.
这么看来，历史数据告诉我们，目前BTC距离减半大概60天左右的时间，价格走势在前高和前低之间宽幅震荡，符合前两次减半行情的历史规律。
In this way, historical data tell us that, at this time, the BTC is about 60 days away, and that price trends are in line with the historical pattern of the two previous halves.
并且每次着装行情的持续时间，大约在一年左右。此次受“黑天鹅”事件的影响，或许是低位建仓的不错时机。
And the duration of each dress is around a year. This time, influenced by the Black Swan, may be a good time for low-level warehousing.
采矿业走到生死边缘
Mining to the edge of life and death
事实上，加密货币继续跌下去，受影响的不仅仅是持币人的财富缩水，更多受影响的是产业链上的矿工以及矿机，这场暴跌将是矿业从业者的噩梦。
In fact, the continued decline of the encrypt currency, which affected not only the shrinking wealth of the currencyholders, but more so the miners on the industrial chain and the miner, would be a nightmare for the miners.
伴随着产量的减半，大量矿工的命运也将被改写。众多手持大量低算力低效率矿机的矿工将面对不断增加挖矿难度与高效率矿机一机难求的境遇。一位持有16nm矿机的矿工告诉中证君，“减半或许是灭顶之灾，如果到时候币价不大涨，每天的收益会断崖式下滑。”
A miner with a 16nm mine said, “A half may be a disaster, but if the currency doesn’t rise, the daily gains will fall off a cliff.”
更可怕的是，电费占比不到50%的机器只有蚂蚁最新的矿机S19和S19PRO。这是什么概念？比特币预计还有58天减半，也就是说，假设币价依然如此，而收益减半，那绝大部分矿机将进入生死存亡的境地。
What's worse is that less than 50% of the electricity costs are just the latest ants miners S19 and S19PRO. What is the concept? Bitcoin is expected to halve by 58 days, that is, assuming that the currency is still the same, and the returns are reduced by half, the vast majority of the machines will be in a state of survival.
可见预见的是，此次大跌是又一次对加密货币投资者和采矿业的大洗牌。
It can be foreseen that the fall was yet another large-scale shuffling of encrypt money investors and the mining industry.
特别声明：本号只做区块链资讯，本文不代表“洋洋说币” 公众号的立场，且不构成投资建议，请谨慎对待。
Special statement: This number only provides information on block chains. This document does not represent the position of the
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