编者注：原标题为《观点|比特币达到100万美元一枚现实么？》
Editor's Note: The original title was "A realistic one for 1 million dollars in bitcoin? "
比特币的支持者们一直在谈论一枚比特币的价格怎样才能达到100万美元。在此之前，这只是猜测。而现在，一些币圈大佬们认为这是板上钉钉的事情。
The supporters of Bitcoin have been talking about how the price of a bitcoin could reach $1 million. Until then, it was speculation. Now, some big coins think it's nailed.
由于新冠病的流行，各国央行正在实施大规模的量化宽松计划，这促使人们预测，到2025年，比特币的价格将达到100万美元。专家们认为，比特币stock-to-flow比率正在接近黄金的水平，这意味着比特币的市值有可能大幅增长。此外，Grayscale的比特币和以太坊信托基金流入了大量资金，表明机构投资者对加密货币的强烈看涨情绪。
Given the prevalence of the new coronary disease, central banks are implementing large-scale quantitative easing schemes, prompting predictions that by 2025 the price of Bitcoin will reach $1 million. Experts argue that the Bitcoin stock-to-flow ratio is approaching gold levels, which means that Bitcoin’s market value is likely to increase significantly.
大规模的全球量化宽松重新点燃了人们对比特币一枚100万美元的预测。在新冠病大流行的背景下，实现这一价格现实么？
Large-scale global quantitative easing has rekindled projections of a $1 million bitcoin. In the context of the new coronary pandemic, is this price reality being realized?
有人预测比特币的价格在2025年前会达到100万美元
There are predictions that Bitcoin's prices will reach $1 million by 2025.
GlobalMacroInvester刚刚发布了一份报告，概述了未来全球金融市场的走向。
GlobalMacroInvester has just released a report outlining the future direction of global financial markets.
观点：加密货币交易量达16万亿美元，已超越FAANG年交易量:8月11日消，据Ark Investment Management 分析师 Yassine Elmandjra在推特上表示，加密货币交易已经超越FAANG年交易量。FAANG是指Facebook、苹果（Apple）、亚马逊（Amazon）、Netflix 和谷歌（Google），这五大科技巨头在公开股票市场的年交易量约为12万亿美元，而加密货币在 2020 年和 2021 年产生了超过 16 万亿美元的交易量。2021年，加密市场交易量呈现爆发式增长，以Coinbase最近发布的二季度报告显示，当季该公司交易量达到4600亿美元。[2021/8/11 1:49:00]
Opinion: Encrypted currency transactions amounting to $16 trillion, surpassing the annual transactions of FAANG: on August 11, the five major technology giants traded approximately $12 trillion in the open stock market, while encrypted currency generated more than $16 trillion in 2020 and 2021. In 2021, cryptomarket transactions increased in an outbreak, with the company trading reaching $46 billion in the current season, as recently reported by Coinbase in its second quarterly report. [2021/8/11:499]
在未来3至5年内，黄金的价格很可能会上涨3倍至5倍。而比特币则可能在同一时期达到100万美元一枚。
The price of gold is likely to rise three to five times over the next three to five years. Bitcoin could reach $1 million over the same period.
有人认为，比特币的市值将从2000亿美元增长到10万亿美元的资产类别，而黄金的市值在同一时期将从15万亿美元增长到60万亿美元。
The view was expressed that the market value of Bitcoin would increase from $200 billion to $10 trillion in asset classes, while the market value of gold would increase from $15 trillion to $60 trillion over the same period.
目前，流通中比特币的总供应量略高于1800万枚，10万亿美元的市值意味着每枚比特币的价值将略高于55万美元。
At present, the total supply of Bitcoins in circulation is just over 18 million and the market value of $10 trillion means that the value of each bitcoins will be just over $550,000.
观点：全球加强虚拟货币监管:6月21日，中国人民银行就虚拟货币炒作交易提供服务问题约谈工商银行、农业银行、建设银行、邮储银行、兴业银行和支付宝（中国）网络技术有限公司等6家机构，进一步加大了对虚拟货币的监管力度。相关金融机构纷纷作出表态，比特币中国也表示响应国内政策已完全退出虚拟货币交易业务。全球监管者也日益关注虚拟货币市场。韩国将加强对虚拟货币企业运营商的管理，以提高交易透明度，并认为虚拟货币“不可被识别为货币或金融产品”。俄罗斯要求选举候选人披露其加密货币持有、消费和购买情况。日本央行行长黑田东彦称比特币交易多被用于投机活动，波动过大，且并未被真正用于结算目的。在欧洲央行行长拉加德看来，比特币是一个高度投机的资产，不是一种货币。（山西新闻网）[2021/6/28 0:11:06]
On 21 June, China’s People’s Bank interviewed six institutions, such as business banks, agricultural banks, construction banks, postal banks, boom banks, and payment funds (China) Network Technology Ltd., on the issue of virtual currency trading services. The financial institutions have come to the fore, and Bitcoin China has responded to domestic policies that have completely withdrawn from virtual currency transactions. Global regulators are also increasingly focusing on virtual money markets. South Korea will strengthen the management of virtual money business operators in order to increase transparency of transactions and consider virtual money “unidentifiable as money or financial products.” Russia calls for election candidates to disclose their secure currency holdings, consumption and purchases.
一位亿万富翁看到了比特币的上涨潜力
A billionaire saw the potential for bitcoin to rise.
SocialCapital的首席执行官、Facebook前高管ChamathPalihapitiya也认为，比特币的价格有可能会达到七位数。据《福布斯》4月初报道，Palihapitiya告诉MorganCreekDigital的AnthonyPompliano，他认为在新冠病疫情的刺激下，比特币的价格要么归零，要么达到数百万一枚。
SocialCapital’s CEO, former head of Facebook, Chamath Palihapitiya, also argued that Bitcoin’s prices were likely to reach seven digits. According to Forbes early in April, Palihapitiya told Anthony Pompliano of MorganCreekDigital that he believed that the price of Bitcoin was either zero or millions of dollars, spurred by the outbreak of the new crown disease.
观点：股市回调风险犹在，比特币作为对冲工具或迎来利好:比特币在1万美元的技术阻力位下方谨慎交易了一个多月。但在防御性投资组合中，再度买入避险资产的乐观情绪，可能在2020年推高比特币价格。纽约梅隆资产管理公司（BNY Mellon Asset Management）的Shamik Dhar在向英国《金融时报》发表的最新声明中表达了看涨的观点。
But, in a defensive portfolio, optimism about buying up risk-free assets again could push bitcoin prices up in 2020. Shamik Dhar, of the New York company BNY Mellon Asset Management (BNY Mellon Asset Management), expressed a strong view in his latest statement to the British Financial Times.
这位首席经济学家表示，由于一系列相互矛盾的指标，很多投资者并不买盘当前的股市反弹。因此，对冲基金购买对冲资产是有意义的。他提议，“考虑到目前的风险平衡，建议为投资组合购买主权债券、黄金和其他对冲工具，以为投资组合提供保险”。（Bitcoinist）[2020/6/8]
The chief economist said that, because of a series of conflicting indicators, many investors did not buy a current stock market rebound. Thus, hedge funds buy hedge assets. He proposed that “taking into account the current risk balance, it is recommended that sovereign bonds, gold and other hedging instruments be purchased for the portfolio to provide insurance for the portfolio”. (Bitcoinist) [2020/6/8]
Palihapitiya认为，全球经济可能正走向法币高速贬值的时期，在这种背景下，“比特币将成为一种避险资产。”
In the view of Palihapitiya, the global economy may be heading towards a period of rapid devaluation of the French currency, and against this background “bitcoin will become a hedge asset”.
这位前Facebook的前高管表示，这个过程可能需要10年时间。他说：
The former head of Facebook said that this process could take 10 years. He said:
现在来看，比特币有价值的概率可能是5%或10%。到2030年，我们很有可能无法通过通货膨胀来解决现存的经济问题。从本质上讲，要想遏制通胀，唯一的方法就是建立某种形式的金本位，但政府和央行之间几乎不可能做到这一点。他们永远不会在一种金融工具上达成共识，也永远不会在汇率上达成共识。但人们可能会选择使用比特币进行交易。
By 2030, it is likely that we will not be able to solve existing economic problems through inflation. In essence, the only way to contain inflation is to create some form of gold standard, but it is almost impossible for governments and central banks to do so.
比特币共识大会第三天观点汇总:1、Square首席执行官Jack Dorsey：数字货币是未来的发展方向。互联网理应拥有一个原生货币，且它将拥有一个原生货币，我希望它会是比特币。使用比特币或其他加密货币作为全球货币，将降低Dorsey’s payments进入新市场的障碍。Dorsey对 Lightning Labs CEO表示：“我们想要回到最初的想法——用比特币购买咖啡，这就是我们与你们合作的原因。”2、Coinbase的CTO Balaji Srinivasan称，目前像微软这样的公司正在密切关注数字货币行业。目前有三种类型的投资者入场，投资者数量正在迅速增加，第一波组是数字黄金，第二波是智能合约，我认为第三波将是小额支付。3、Ledger CEO Eric Larcheveque称，计划启动机构加密交易。他表示：“如果想扩大加密交易的规模，不能单靠区块链。”4、Union Square Ventures合伙人Fred Wilson认为，现在的一些加密货币在十年后会变得令人感到惊讶。此外，他还表示价值是在代币中的，而非建立在这些加密货币之上的企业中。[2018/5/17]
One, Jack Dorsey, Chief Executive Officer of the Bitcoin Consensus: Digital Currency is the future direction of development.” Two, CTO Balaji Srinivasan of Coinbase says that companies like Microsoft are paying close attention to the digital money industry. Three types of investors are now entering the market, investors are rapidly increasing, the first wave is digital gold, the second wave is smart contracts, and I think the third wave will be small payments, which is why we're working with you to buy coffee in Bitco.
比特币的基本面怎么样？
What about the basics of Bitcoin?
金色财经现场报道 圆桌环节嘉宾关于区块链3.0时代的发展方向是什么的观点:金色财经现场报道，今日在纽约举行的2018区块链无国界峰会上金色财经合伙人佟扬主持了圆桌环节，讨论了有关区块链3.0时代的发展方向。对此，Certik联合创始人哥大助理教授顾荣辉表示，区块链1.0是存储数据的区块链，区块链2.0存储的是可以操作数据的程序，而区块链3.0意味着可以在区块链之上继续加载区块链，是终极的区块链。星云链联合创始人钟馥百表示，区块链3.0偏重区块链技术的落地，区块链3.0面临经济模型和技术方面的挑战。区块链3.0可以在经济模型上激励更多的人，提供门槛更低的开发平台。IOST联合创始人及CEO钟家鸣表示，比特币仍然是最适应区块链的，区块链3.0包含目前区块链还不包括的一些功能。 Hydro Protocol联合创始人王博闻表示，以太坊区块链的效率低下，需要解决TPS问题，下一代的区块链技术需要解决是否能使TPS以指数增长的问题。[2018/5/13]
In response, the Co-founder of Certik co-founder, Prof. Guo Quanhui, said that block chain 1.0 was a segment chain in which data could be stored, that block chain 2.0 was a program for which operational data could be stored, and that block chain 3.0 meant that the block chain could continue to be built over the block chain and that the block chain was the ultimate block chain. The co-founder of the star cloud chain, the co-founder of the co-founder's bell, indicated that the block chain of 3.0 was located in the middle of the block chain, and that the block chain of 3.0 was faced with economic modelling and technical challenges. The block chain 3.0 could stimulate more people on the economic model and provide a lower threshold development platform.
尽管存在争议，但stock-to-flow模型显示，在此次减半之后，比特币的稀缺程度将逼近黄金。
Despite the controversy, the stock-to-low model shows that after this halving, the scarcity of Bitcoin will approach gold.
S2F模型是一个用来衡量稀缺性的价值度量标准。它是一种资产的当前供给除以新供给所得到的比率。例如，白银的S2F比率为22。
The S2F model is a measure of the value of scarcity. It is a ratio of the current supply of assets divided by the new supply. For example, the S2F ratio for silver is 22.
PlanB是最早将S2F模型用来计算比特币稀缺性的投资者，这么做目的是评估比特币的长期价值。目前比特币的S2F比率为27，已经超过了白银的数值。而黄金的S2F比率为62。
PlanB was the first investor to use the S2F model to calculate the scarcity of bitcoins in order to assess the long-term value of bitcoins. The current S2F ratio of bitcoins is 27, which exceeds the value of silver. The S2F ratio of gold is 62.
以黄金为例，S2F比率为62意味着按照目前的开采速度，黄金的供应量需要62年才能翻一番，因此黄金极度稀缺。使用这种稀缺性模型可以尝试预测商品在未来的价格。
In the case of gold, the S2F ratio of 62 means that, at the current rate of mining, the supply of gold will take 62 years to double, so that gold is extremely scarce. Using this scarcity model, one can try to predict future prices for commodities.
在2020年5月份减半之后，比特币的S2F比率将翻一番，达到52，其稀缺性将更接近黄金。根据该模型显示，比特币在减半后的的预期价格将达到5.5万美元一枚。
After halving in May 2020, the S2F ratio of Bitcoin will double to 52, and its scarcity will be closer to gold. According to this model, Bitcoin’s expected price after halving will reach $55,000.
如果黄金和比特币是价值类似的对冲资产，那么根据S2F模型，从理论上讲，两种资产可能具有相似的稀缺性。因此，如果比特币的市值飙升至黄金的水平，那么每枚比特币的价值将超过50万美元。如果把纸黄金也涵盖在黄金的市值当中，那么每枚比特币的价格将最高达到80万美元。
If gold and bitcoin are hedge assets of similar value, then, according to the S2F model, the two assets may theoretically be similarly scarce. So, if bitcoin's market value soars to gold, each bitcoin will be worth more than $500,000. If paper gold is also included in the gold's market value, then the price per bitcoin will be up to $800,000.
此外，分析师PhilipSwift提出的一种观点认为，由于比特币的价格走势与S2F比率趋势相同，每枚比特币的价格正在接近10万美元。
In addition, the analyst PhilipSwift presented the view that the price per bit was approaching $100,000, as the price of Bitcoin followed the same trend as the S2F ratio.
比特币价格和S2F趋势图，由PhilipSwift提供
Bitcoin prices and S2F trend maps, provided by PhilipSwift
PlanB在最近还更新了S2F的模型图，它预测从2020年到比特币的第四次减半期间，每枚比特币的价格将达到28.8万美元。
PlanB has also recently updated the S2F model map, which predicts that the price per bitcoin will reach $288,000 between 2020 and the fourth halving of Bitcoin.
PlanB最新提供的S2F模型图
The latest S2F model from PlanB
比特币需求强劲
Bitcoin demand is strong
根据目前比特币的供应量来看，比特币的价格已经接近8000美元。而供应量的增长将在5月中旬后减半。因此，直到新币产出减少的全面影响开始显现之前，比特币价格的上涨实际上是需求驱动的。
The price of Bitcoin is already close to $8,000, based on the current supply of bitcoin. The increase in supply will be halved by mid-May. So, until the full impact of the decline in output in the new currency begins to emerge, the price increase in bitcoin is actually demand-driven.
Grayscale在2019年的投资者研究发现，大约36%的美国投资者对于投资比特币感兴趣。83%的受访者表示，比特币的“增长潜力”是他们对比特币感兴趣的原因之一。此外，比特币的稀缺性也引起了投资者的强烈共鸣。
Grayscale’s 2019 investor study found that about 36% of US investors were interested in investing in bitcoin. Eighty-three% of respondents said that Bitcoin’s “growth potential” was one of the reasons for their interest in bitcoin. Moreover, the scarcity of bitcoin has generated strong resonance among investors.
Grayscale的季度报告还显示，机构投资者对比特币的兴趣正日益浓厚。在2020年第一季度季，机构投资者对比特币出现了有史以来最强劲的需求水平，流入该基金的资金超过了5亿美元。
Grayscale’s quarterly report also shows that institutional investors’ interest in bitcoin is growing. In the first quarter of 2020, institutional investors’ demand for bitcoin was the strongest in history, with more than $500 million flowing into the fund.
其中，79%的资金流入来自对冲基金和其他机构投资者。约4亿美元的资金流入了该公司的比特币信托产品，1亿美元流入了以太坊信托产品。
Of that amount, 79 per cent went to hedge funds and other institutional investors. About $400 million went to the company’s Bitcoin Trust and $100 million to the Etheraya Trust.
2020年第一季度流入加密货币信托基金的资金情况
Financial flows to the Encrypted Currency Trust Fund in the first quarter of 2020
Grayscale的季度报告反映了投资者对比特币的需求，因为该基金是数字资产的重要持有者。截至今年第一季度末，该公司持有了总流通量中1.7%的比特币。这也意味着该公司持有的加密货币占加密货币资产总市值的1.2%。
The quarterly report of Grayscale reflects the needs of the investor, which is an important holder of digital assets. By the end of the first quarter of this year, the company held 1.7% of the Bitcoins in total circulation. This also means that the company held 1.2% of the total market value of encrypted monetary assets.
Grasysacle比特币信托占比特币流通供应量的百分比
Grasysaclebitcoin Trust as a percentage of Bitcoin circulation supply
去年，每季度流入该公司比特币产品的资金都增长了一倍。虽然下图显示了从2019年第二季度、第三季度和第四季度的流入资金出现了增长停滞的情况，但这实际上是Graysale停止接受新资金的结果。
Last year, quarterly inflows to the company’s Bitcoin products doubled. While the figure below shows a stagnation in inflows from the second, third and fourth quarters of 2019, this is actually the result of Graysale’s cessation of new funding.
当基金被超额认购时，这家资产管理公司会周期性地停止接受新的资金流入。因此，没有资金流入并不代表投资者对其产品没有需求，而是人为设定了管理资产上限的结果。
When the Fund is oversubscribed, the asset management firm will cease to receive new inflows on a cyclical basis. Thus, the absence of inflows does not mean that investors have no demand for their products, but rather the result of artificial asset-management caps.
在过去一年，通过Grayscale流入比特币的资金在每个季度都增加了一倍，从2019年第二季度的约1亿美元，到2019年第三季度的2亿美元，再到2019年第四季度的4亿美元，2020年3月底的8亿美元。说明机构对比特币需求呈持续上涨的趋势。
In the past year, the flow of funds to Bitcoin through Grayscale doubled in every quarter, from about $100 million in the second quarter of 2019 to $200 million in the third quarter of 2019 to $400 million in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $800 million at the end of March 2020. This represents a continuing upward trend in agency demand for bitcoin.
过去一年，流入Grayscale的资金情况
Financial flows to Grayscale over the past year
Grayscale的数据显示，机构投资者看好币价上涨。正如VisualCapitalist提供的数据所显示的那样，全球衍生品的名义价值在630万亿到1.2万亿美元之间。如果这些资金中只有一小部分从衍生品转向数字资产，那么比特币的价格就可能会出现大幅飙升。机构投资者从其他资产类别转向数字资产，将推动币价升至100万美元一枚。
The value of global derivatives ranges from $630 trillion to $1.2 trillion in nominal terms, as shown by the data provided by VillalCapitalist. If only a fraction of these funds were to shift from derivatives to digital assets, the price of bitcoins could rise dramatically.
到比特币第四次减半的时候，即从现在起的4年后，流通中的比特币将达到1968.75万枚。它的S2F比率将再次翻倍并远超黄金。如果到那时，比特币已经成为了一种避险资产，那么比特币的价格也一定会土大木。
By the fourth half of Bitcoin, four years from now, the number of bitcoins in circulation will reach 1968.750 million. Its S2F ratio will double again and go far beyond gold. If by then Bitcoin has become a hedge asset, the price of bitcoin will be huge.
虽然100万美元的比特币可能在2020年看起来有些遥不可及，但回到2016年，人们也很难想象比特币能达到今天的价格。
While $1 million in bitcoin may seem somewhat out of reach in 2020, it is also difficult to imagine that bitcoin could reach today's prices in 2016.
当然，我们需要谨慎对待所有的价格预测模型。因为，预测模型中丁点的错误都可有能极大的影响到最终结果。
Of course, we need to be cautious about all price forecasting models. Because errors in the dots in the prediction models can have a great impact on the end result.
到2025年，我们会看到一枚比特币达到100万美元么？没有人能真正知道。然而，通过上面的分析表明，这完全有可能实现。
By 2025, will we see a bitcoin of $1 million? No one really knows. But the analysis above shows that this is entirely possible.
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