详细拆解黄金过去50年的走势，这对比特币的发展有何启发？

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免责声明：本文旨在传递更多市场信息，不构成任何投资建议。文章仅代表作者观点，不代表火星财经官方立场。

This paper is intended to convey more information about the market and does not constitute an investment proposal.

小编：记得关注哦

Editor: Keep an eye on it.

来源：区块链骑士

Source: Knights of the Block Chain

今天稍微有点时间，我们今天展开一点来讲。 关于BTC的观点，做投资还是需要回到历史研究中，所以你看到那么多人告诉你，做投资的人都喜欢读历史和哲学的书。因为回到历史，你才能“古今多少事，都付笑谈中”。

It's a little bit of time today, and we're going to start a little bit. The point of the story about the BTC is that investment needs to go back to history, so you see so many people who tell you that people who invest like to read history and philosophy.

“事来则应，事去心止”绝非一种赘词，而是真正属于“阿赖耶识”以上的境界。在说BTC的时候，我们不得不将黄金的历史走势图翻出来，做一番研究，看看黄金当年是因为哪些时间一路走高，然后又是因为什么因素导致了今天历史地位的下滑。

“When things come, things come and go,” which is not a word, but really more than “Alaiyecece.” When speaking of the BTC, we have to roll out the historical picture of gold and do some research to see when it went up, and then what caused the decline in history today.

这是黄金过去50年的走势图，估计大家看不清。我拆分一下：

It's a map of the gold for the last 50 years. I don't think you can see it. I'll split it.

下面这张是黄金1968年-1980年价格走势图

Here's a chart of gold prices from 1968 to 1980.

第一个上涨阶段：

1967年11月18日，英镑在战后第二次贬值，1968年3月17日，“黄金总汇”解体。《史密森协定》签订， 美元正式与黄金脱钩，然后我们看到戴高乐同志宣布要从美国提走黄金。

On November 18, 1967, the pound sterling devalued for the second time after the war, and on March 17, 1968, the “gold sink” disintegrated. The Smithsonian agreement formally delinked the dollar from the gold and then we saw Comrade de Gaulle announce his intention to withdraw the gold from the United States.

紧接着美国总统尼克松关闭黄金窗口，停止各国政府或中央银行持有美元前来兑换黄金。 美元挣脱黄金的牢狱，自由浮动于外汇市场。

Immediately thereafter, US President Nixon closed the gold window, stopping governments or central banks from holding dollars to exchange gold. broke free from gold and floated freely on the foreign exchange market .

于是我们看到了，美元从1967年从40美金一路飙升了到了180美金，那个时候还没有超发泛滥的货币，没有高速发展的货币体系，没有经济危机，没有完备的现代工业体系，更没有信息门槛极低的互联网和交易门槛极低的世界经济体系。

So we see that the dollar jumped from $40 to $180 in 1967, when there was no excess currency, no fast-growing monetary system, no economic crisis, no adequate modern industrial system, and no world economic system with very low information and trading thresholds.

即便如此，脱钩美元后的黄金，依然如脱缰的野马，一路向上，如果按照今天的各种组成要素，400倍甚至更高的涨幅倍数，是可以看见的，所以这么去看BTC的涨幅也就一点都不为过了。

Even so, the gold after the decoupling dollar is like a wild horse that goes all the way up and can be seen if, according to today's constituent elements, it is 400 times or even higher, so it is not too much to look at the BTC upscale.

第二个暴涨阶段：

/strang':

我们再看上图，我们真正看到黄金开始上涨的时候是1978年以后中东爆发两伊战争， 世界陷入第二次石油危机。

Once again, we see the beginning of the rise in gold when the war between Iran and Iraq broke out in the Middle East after 1978, and the world fell into a second oil crisis .

所以我们看到了：

So we see:

1978年，原油飙涨达一桶30美元，金价涨到244美元。

In 1978, crude oil skyrocketed to $30 a barrel and gold prices rose to $244.

1979年，金价涨到500美元。而同年美国的通胀率仅仅才12%。

Gold prices rose to $500 in 1979, while inflation in the United States was only 12 per cent in the same year.

1980年元月的头两个交易日，金价达到634美元，美国财长米勒宣布财政部不再出售黄金，之后不到30分钟金价大涨30美元达715美元，元月21日创850美元新高。

On the first two trading days of the month of January 1980, with a gold price of $634, US Secretary of State Miller announced that the Department of the Treasury would no longer sell gold, after which the value of gold rose by $30 to $715 in less than 30 minutes and reached a new high of $850 on 21 January.

美国总统 卡特不得不出来打压金市，表示一定会不惜任何代价来维护美国在世界上的地位 ，当天收盘时金价下跌了50美元。

The President of the United States , Carter /span >, had to come out and fight against the gold market, saying that he would do anything to preserve America's place in the world , when the price fell by $50.

1980年2月22日，金价重挫145美元。当代首次黄金大 牛市宣告结束，但是从1968年开始，黄金已经持续了12年的牛市，每年投资黄金的年化平均回报率是30%。

On February 22, 1980, the gold price fell by $145. The first-ever gold market in modern times was closed, but, since 1968, gold has been in the cattle market for 12 years, with an annualized return of 30 per cent per year on investment in gold.

而从1981年以后， 黄金在美联储的打压和世界和平的大环境下，走势一路阴跌。1980年左右世界一篇歌舞升平，亚洲四小龙崛起，日本制造业问鼎世界，美元不断超发，全球其他央行也不断跟风超发货币，但是在繁荣的经济发展背景下，黄金依然表现低迷。

From 1981 onward,

直到1987年， 美国股市崩盘后，黄金价格有一个反弹，到486美元的峰顶后便一路下滑。而这十年美国的通胀率升幅共达90%，以低通胀率见称的日本也在20%的水平，世界范围大灌水。

Until 1987, after the collapse of the stock market in the United States, the price of gold rebounded

即便是在1991年欧元央行体系正式搭建，美国策划了科威特战争，黄金也只是小幅度反弹，同年苏联宣布解体，世界从此进入一超多强的格局。

Even when the euro central bank system was formally established in 1991, when the United States planned the war in Kuwait, gold rebounded only marginally, with the Soviet Union declaring itself dissolved in the same year and the world entering a more than powerful pattern.

从90年代到2005年，这十多年的时间，黄金一直维持在500美刀左右的区间。中间虽然遇到过98年的经济危机，01年的互联网泡沫，但是整体的波动都不是很大。这意味着黄金在这个阶段变成了一个配置属性的产品。

For more than a decade, between the 1990s and 2005, gold remained in the region of $500. In the middle, despite the economic crisis of 98 and the Internet bubble of 01, the overall volatility was not significant.

从黄金的整个历史来看， 每个阶段世界的主要因素是影响黄金长期走势的最核心原因。

Throughout the history of gold, the main factor in every stage of the world is the most central factor affecting the long-term movement of gold.

我们来梳理一下。

Let's freshen up.

1968年-1980的整个走势，是美元与黄金脱钩，美元变成自由汇率体系，然后美元为了奠定世界货币体系的市场地位，不断搅乱中东局势，世界一篇混乱，石油危机成为了世界的主要事件，而石油又是世界工业体系最重要的生产要素，于是，石油影响美元，美元控制石油，美元的波动和不确定性，又推高了黄金的市场地位，于是我们看到了12年的黄金牛市。

The overall trend in 1968-1980 was the decoupling of the United States dollar from gold, the transformation of the United States dollar into a free-exchange-rate system, and the continued disruption of the situation in the Middle East by the dollar in order to establish the market position of the world monetary system. The world was troubled by the oil crisis, which was the most important factor in the world's industrial system. Oil thus influenced the United States dollar, the United States dollar controlled oil, the United States dollar fluctuated and uncertainty, and we saw the gold market for 12 years.

然后是 1980-2000左右的黄金震荡市场，这20年黄金为什么没有大的波动？我分析主要原因有2个：

Then there's the gold tremor market around 1980-2000. Why hasn't gold fluctuated much in the last 20 years? I've analysed two main reasons:

1、 黄金只是一种配置型的贵金属，不是生产必须的生产物资，不受市场供求关系的影响。

1.

2、 美元已经在1978左右控制了石油，Swift系统也受老美牢牢控制，世界货币体系的霸主地位已经稳固，虽然后面还发生了很多波动，但是这些波动都无法改变整个局面，苏联届时也奄奄一息，根本不具备和美抗衡的局势， 尼克松访华这些时间已经说明了一切。所以世界那个时候已经是混沌初定，因此 黄金的上涨因素失去了。所以黄金变成了配置型的产品，波动很小。

2. The United States dollar has taken control of oil around 1978, the Swift system has been firmly controlled by the old US, and the dominance of the world's monetary system has stabilized. Although there have been a lot of fluctuations, none of these fluctuations can change the whole situation, the Soviet Union is dying, there is no balance with the United States, and the time has come for Nixon to visit China /span's /span / /span / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /

2005年以后，还是由于美国出现了经济危机的端倪， 美元为了逃离风险敞口，所以黄金成了最好的风险避险地，于是我们看到了后面黄金从500涨到1900美金左右。

After 2005, again, because of the economic crisis in the United States,

简述完了黄金的50年走势图，大家应该非常明晰了， 黄金的价格波动主要背后的影响因素是美元的稳定性问题。

It should be very clear that the main factor behind the price volatility of

BTC行情分析

BTC Paranoia

如果大家再将BTC的历史走势做一个相对应的复盘的话，我相信也不难找出相对应的主要影响因素；具体的影响因素，我在之前的文章里面都有所罗列，我会再找一个时间做一个简单的梳理，这也是我说BTC的牛市基础，中短内还存在的原因。

I am sure it will not be difficult to identify the main factors of the BTC's relative influence, if you look at the BTC's historical trends as a corresponding reprogramming exercise; the specific factors of influence, which I have listed in my previous articles, will find another time for a simple collation, which is why I say the BTC's cow base still exists in the short and medium term.

再说回短期内的风险可能点，现在BTC又重回60000的大关口，这次对应的爆破点是62000的位置，如果不创出新高， 中期的共识和获利盘有杀盘的风险。

Besides the risk in the short term, the BTC is now back at the $60,000 threshold, and the corresponding blast point is 62,000, and if we don't create a new height, the medium-term consensus of and profit risk killing.

如果继续新高，风险会转换为更强的FOMO情绪，会再次推动整个市场的疯狂。最近的小币乱舞就是BTC和ETH坚挺推动的。

If it continues to be new, the risk will turn to a stronger FOMO mood, and it will drive the whole market mad again. 's recent choreography is driven by BTC and ETH.

ETH行情分析

ETH Paranoia

ETH继续震荡走高，但仍在日线新新中枢的位置中，结构稳定。最近喊ETH 10000刀的人越来越多了。市场乐观的热度又开始上升了，需要看到牛市基础下面ETH的可能，也需要密切监视BTC的波动风险。

ETH continues to rock high, but remains structurally stable in the new hub of the Japanese line

LTC/BCH/EOS/ XRP/ADA行情分析

LTC/BCH/EOS/XRP/ADA situation analysis

四小龙全部新高，XRP解除风险之后，重回第四位置，意料之中，但却也是惊喜之外。四小龙还是没有闲着，希望给自己正名，XRP首当其冲。短期内就不要再上车了，这个阶段， 周期只能短线视之。

The four dragons are all new, and after XRP is released, they return to their fourth position, unexpectedly, but unexpectedly. The four dragons are still busy, hoping to give themselves a proper name, and XRP will be the first to take the lead. In the short term, the cycle will be short-sighted .

DOT/KSM行情分析

DOT/KSM Paranoia

市场热度被ETH/BTC还有类似四小龙的小币们带走了，当然 新币的吸金效应也比较明显，波卡的热度自然就下来了，但是仍然需要坚定地持有，不然追高换仓，后面波卡搞事儿，回来一看又买不进去了。左一耳光，又一耳光，还谈什么赚钱。

The market heat was taken away by the ETH/BTC and the four dragon-like coins, and of course the cashing effect of the strong's new currency was also apparent, and Poca's heat naturally came down

行情分析完成于2021.04.11 10:00返回搜狐，查看更多

returned to see more fox

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