原標題：明知“割韭菜” 還是要“梭哈”
Title: Knows whether to cut vegetables or shoals
新一輪“炒幣熱潮”背后是什麼鬼
What the hell is behind the new round of "frozen booms"?
時隔僅僅4個月，“幣圈”(一群利用區塊鏈技術開發、發行、運營、交易虛擬貨幣的人)又熱鬧了，更多新手入局，玩法也越來越多。
In just four months, the currency ring (a group of people using the chain technology to develop, deliver, operate, trade in virtual currency) has rekindled, with more new players and more playing.
1月10日，數字資產交易平台Binance(幣安)宣布其全球注冊用戶超過了500萬人，已經躍升為世界最大的交易所之一，而這距離其開始運營僅6個月左右。而且，因為新用戶增長太多太快，幣安一度不得不暫時關閉注冊通道。
On January 10, the digital trading platform Binance announced that its global register, with over 5 million subscribers, had risen to one of the largest exchanges in the world, just about six months from the start of its operation. And, because the new user grew too fast, the currency had to close the register for a while.
眼前這股虛擬貨幣的熱潮有些眼熟。2017年八九月間，眾多ICO(首次發行代幣)項目在“幣圈”和社會上引起巨大關注。不過，“一幣一別墅”的神話在去年9月4日戛然而止。“一行三會”等七部委聯合出台的ICO政策，將虛擬貨幣的ICO定義為“本質上是一種未經批准非法公開融資的行為”。
However, the myth of “one dollar, one house” ended on September 4, last. The ICO policy, which was launched by seven ministries, such as the “three-line” conference, defines the ICO of the virtual currency as “the essence of an unsanctioned act of illegal publicization”.
此后，“幣圈”經歷了短期的沉寂，但“炒幣”“變相ICO”等熱潮依舊層出不窮，各類以區塊鏈、數字資產、虛擬貨幣為主題的會議、交流活動越來越多，參與“炒幣熱潮”的人也逐漸增多。
Since then, the currency circle has experienced short-term silence, but the tides of “fibbing” such as “disguised ICO” have continued to grow, with more meetings and exchanges on the topic of sector chains, digital assets, virtual currency, and more and more participants in the “fibulation boom”.
這股“炒幣熱潮”是如何卷土重來的？越來越多的入局新手，層出不窮的各種代幣和交易方式，將會給“幣圈”和社會帶來什麼？近日，中國青年報·中青在線記者進行了調查。
How does this “fouling boom” re-emerge? More and more new entrants, with a variety of coins and trading methods, will bring about a “currency ring” and society?
“梭哈”的炒幣大軍
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“梭哈”，原本是賭博牌局游戲中的名詞，指的是將所有賭資都押注，希望通過一把“All in”博得最大收益。而在“幣圈”群裡，“梭哈表情包”更多地被用來鼓勵投資者投入更多資金參與“炒幣”。
“Sho-ha,” originally used as a name for gambling games, refers to betting on all the bets in the hope of maximizing the profits from a “All in.” In the “currency ring” group, “Sho-ho-ho” is more often used to encourage investors to invest more in “money-raising.”
龐曉(化名)就是“炒幣大軍”的一員。從2017年6月開始關注區塊鏈和數字貨幣以來，她在各種代幣身上已經投入數萬元。不過，作為收入不算高的“工薪族”，龐曉還不太敢將全部身家“梭哈”進去，她知道，這個圈子裡風險太多了。
Since June 2017, she has invested tens of thousands of dollars in various currencies. But, as a “worker” with not much income, Pang knew that she had not dared to put all of her family in, and she knew that there were too many risks in the circle.
“‘幣圈’的資源被高度壟斷，信息極不透明，參與者水平參差不齊，‘割韭菜’的說法不是空穴來風。不只是外界，‘幣圈’也是同樣的看法。”龐曉說。
“The resources of the currency ring are highly strained, the information is highly opaque, the participants are highly variable, and the term “cuttering” is not empty. Not only the outside world, but the same thing is said about the currency ring.”
利益與風險總是成正比。幣圈雖然風險多，但幣價在一周內動輒上漲五六成，甚至翻倍的情況並不鮮見，超高的利潤回報率仍不斷吸引著更多龐曉一樣的新手加入其中。
Benefits and risks are always proportional. The currency circle is more risky, but the currency price rises by 50 per cent or even doubles in a week, and the ultra-high return on profits continues to attract more and equally well-known new players.
加入“炒幣大軍”已有數月，龐曉的心情就像幣價走勢一樣，忽高忽低。但更多的時候，她對幣圈的感覺是興奮。“隻要進了‘幣圈’，看到自己買的或者其他沒買到的幣在一天之內漲了百分之二三十，想要投更多錢進去投機的心態就會越來越強。”
It has been months since she joined the “false army” – a feeling that she feels like the currency is moving, but more often, she feels excited about the currency ring. “Only in the currency ring, seeing that the money she buys or does not buy rises by 20 or 30 per cent in one day, and the feeling that she wants to invest more in it will grow stronger.”
眾多新手不斷加入的直接因素，是各種虛擬貨幣的快速造富神話，哪怕是一些惡搞的虛擬貨幣，也能被追捧為高價的虛擬貨幣。
The direct factor behind the many new entrants is the myth of rapid enrichment of various virtual currencies, which can be promoted as high-value virtual coins even if they are some of the bogus ones.
2013 年被推出的“狗狗幣”，原本只是創始團隊借此籌款做公益的一個項目，在公益活動結束后就處於相對停滯的狀態。但在2017年12月，“狗狗幣”的價格穩步走高，市值上漲超過400%。“狗狗幣”的創始人之一杰克遜·帕爾默曾對媒體表示，擔心這會是一場惡性通貨膨脹騙局。
But in December 2017, the price of the “dog coin” rose steadily and the market value rose by more than 400%. Jackson Palmer, one of the founders of the “dog coin”, once told the press that he feared it would be a bad inflation scam.
而在投資界人士看來，“狗狗幣”這類案例在再次來臨的“炒幣熱潮”中其實並不新鮮。
According to investors, the case of “dog coins” is not new in the “frozen boom” that comes again.
“我相信絕大多數人沒有想到，在那麼短的時間裡面，ICO會重新狂熱，甚至有遠超上一次的態勢。”星合資本董事長郭宇航認為，再次來臨的“炒幣熱潮”中，肯定不乏對虛擬貨幣抱有信仰，而且懂技術的人，但大多數人並不會堅定持有某些虛擬貨幣。
“I believe that most people do not think that in such a short period of time, the ICO will reheated, even more than it did last time.” In the re-emergence of the “fibulation boom”, Chairman Kwok cosmos believes that there is no shortage of people who believe in virtual currency and know technology, but most people do not insist on holding some virtual currency.
“參與其中的人都很清楚，很多代幣背后支撐的邏輯是很脆弱的。隻要一有風吹草動，追漲殺跌比股市要嚴重的多，因為沒有漲跌停板。”郭宇航說，“其實大家都是帶著一點投機的心理參與這場游戲的，只是覺得擊鼓傳花，自己不會是最后一棒。”
"It is clear to all who are involved that the logic behind many of the coins is fragile. It's more serious than the stock market to go after it, because it doesn't go up or down." As the cosmos says, "We're all involved in this game with a little investment, but we just feel like we're not going to be the last."
幣價的漲跌邏輯
The logic of the fall in the price of
那麼，這一輪“炒幣熱潮”是如何在ICO禁令后，悄然發展並波及更廣的？
So, how did this round of "frozen boom" develop and spread after the ICO ban?
中央民族大學法學院教授鄧建鵬長期研究虛擬貨幣及其監管。在他看來，最近這一輪“炒幣熱潮”與2017年9月監管部門對虛擬貨幣的集中整治有一定關系，但更多地還是因為，比特幣造富現象吸引了更多普通投資者，甚至是傳統金融機構紛紛入場，從而推動比特幣以及其他虛擬貨幣的價格上漲。
The Law School of the Central National University, Professor Deng Jianjin, has long been studying virtual currency and its supervision. In his view, the recent round of “frozen currency booms” has had some bearing on the centralization of virtual currency in September 2017 by the Department of Supervision, but more so because of the fact that bitcoins have attracted more ordinary investors, even traditional financial institutions, to push the price of bitcoins and other virtual coins.
在郭宇航看來，推動比特幣等虛擬貨幣價格高漲最主要的動力，就是不斷有新人涌入市場。據他估算，經過近幾年虛擬貨幣領域前后2輪的“牛熊切換”，國內“幣圈”的總人數已經從數十萬暴增至數百萬，由於比特幣總量有限，且其中有許多已經遺失，或者掌握在極少數人手中，其集中度遠超傳統財富，所以逐漸增多的新投資者還會繼續將比特幣以及其他虛擬貨幣的價格推高。
According to Kwok Space, the most important incentive to boost the price of virtual currency such as bitcoins is the constant influx of new people into the market. He estimates that, after two rounds of “cow bear swaps” in the virtual currency field in recent years, the total number of people in the domestic “currency” has increased from hundreds of thousands to millions, owing to limited amounts of bitcoins and many of them have lost, or are in the hands of a very small number of people whose concentration is far greater than traditional wealth, so that the growing number of new investors will continue to push up the price of bitcoins and other virtual currencies.
“當整個‘幣圈’市場從20萬人快速擴張到100萬時，其實很多‘幣圈’的硬通貨，比如比特幣和ETH(以太坊幣)的單價自然水漲船高。”郭宇航如此解釋比特幣和其他虛擬貨幣的“造富效應”。
“When the entire market of the “currency ring” expanded rapidly from 200,000 to 1 million, a lot of hard currency of the “currency ring” actually went up to a very high ship at a single price, such as Bitcoins and ETHs.” As this explains the “rich effect” of the “bitcoins” and other virtual coins.
如果說“硬通貨”的高價更多地是因為稀缺性，那麼“幣圈”中其他各種代幣的漲價邏輯則更為復雜。
If the high price of “hard currency” is more due to scarcity, the logic of price increases in other currencies in the “currency circle” is even more complicated.
中國政法大學資本金融研究院副院長武長海告訴中國青年報·中青在線記者，其他各種代幣的發展是與比特幣同步增長起來的，這包括公司與個人利用加密數字貨幣開展的企業及項目融資行為。因此，其他各種代幣與比特幣具有關聯性，比特幣的交易價格走勢與其他各種代幣的交易價格增減具有一致性。
The Vice-President of the Financial Research Institute of China’s University of Political Science and Law told Chinese youth reporters that the development of other currencies has grown in tandem with the Bitcoins, including companies and projects where companies and individuals use encrypted digital currencies for investment purposes. As a result, various other currencies are linked to the Bitcoins, and the currency’s trade price booms are consistent with the increases in the prices of other currencies.
以上述“狗狗幣”為例，構成其價格變動的因素有很多，比特幣的價格走勢、投資“狗狗幣”的人群等因素都可能影響其價格變化。而在真實的“幣圈”中，受影響最明顯而且最受爭議的，可能還是虛擬貨幣的交易環節。
In the case of “dog coins,” as described above, there are a number of factors that make up their price movements, such as price movements in bitcoins, and people who invest in “dog coins,” all of which can influence the price changes. In the real currency circles, the most obvious and controversial of the influence is probably the virtual currency trading loop.
1月14日晚間，另一數字資產交易所OKEx幣幣交易的ETH/USDT(以太坊與泰達幣)交易對出現超低價巨額成交單，大量ETH不計成本地快速賣出。對此，OKEx方面回應稱，超低價巨額成交單是因為某用戶在12分鐘內，連續5次通過市價單快速賣出大量ETH。
On the evening of January 14, another digital capital exchange, the ETH/USDT (Etha and Tedar) deal, traded in OKEx coins, made a huge amount of ETHs sold at no cost because a user sold a large amount of ETHs five times in a row over a 12-minute period of time.
但在龐曉看來，如此粗心大意的ETH交易價格錯誤發生的概率較低。她認為，這類情況背后，可能是業內為提高一些幣種交易的流動性和價格，採取的一種手段。
But, in the first place, it is less likely that such a careless ETH transaction price error will occur. She argues that behind this may be an in-house means of improving the flow and price of some currency transactions.
事實上，最近不少交易所都推出了意在提高流動性、增加用戶黏性的平台幣。1月20日晚間，火幣Pro宣布發行自己的平台令牌Huobi Token，短短幾分鐘內，OKEx就傳出將要推出OKB，並且要把OKB建設成OKEx生態中的重要組成部分。加上此前幣安推出的BNB(幣安幣)，目前國內“幣圈”的三大常用平台都已經推出相應的平台幣。
In fact, a number of recent exchanges have introduced platform coins designed to increase mobility and user stickyness. In the evening of January 20, Firecoin Pro announced the launch of its own platform, Huobi Token, and in a matter of minutes, OKEx announced that it would launch an OKB and set it up as an important component of the OKEx system.
在鄧建鵬看來，目前全球各大虛擬貨幣交易所的數據基本都沒有與金融監管機構對接，所以很難証明這類交易所有沒有和代幣的“大礦主”聯手拉抬價格，或者內幕交易。
According to Dunjian, the data of the world's major virtual currency exchanges are largely unconnected with financial regulators, so it is difficult to prove whether such exchanges are working with the money's “big miners” to raise prices or to deal with insiders.
而在許多虛擬貨幣價格飛漲的情況下，許多投資者更有可能擔心存在人為哄抬價格的情況。“這種擔心是有一定道理和可能性的，日本已經有(虛擬貨幣)交易所被發現在使用機器人自買自賣、單方面拉抬價格。”鄧建鵬說。
In many cases of surreal currency price hikes, many investors are more likely to worry about the existence of surrogate prices. “There is some reason and possibility for this fear, and Japan already has a (virtual currency) exchange that is found to be increasing prices in the use of robots to buy their own money.” According to Deng Jianjin.
未來的監管選擇
's future management options
意識到“炒幣熱潮”中潛藏的投資風險，監管部門最近頻頻出招，或提出明確要求，或作出風險提醒。
In the recent past, the regulatory department has made frequent or explicit requests, or made risk alerts, in recognition of the investment risks that are hidden in the “fibre boom”.
日前，中國人民銀行營業管理部發布《關於開展為非法虛擬貨幣交易提供支付服務自查整改工作的通知》(下稱《整改通知》)，要求轄區內各支付機構開展自查整改工作，嚴禁為虛擬貨幣交易提供服務，並且採取措施防止交易通道用於虛擬貨幣交易。
Today, the Ministry of People's Bank Administration of China issued a circular on self-censorship and reform of payment services for illegal virtual currency transactions (hereinafter referred to as the " Reorganization Notice " ), requiring payment agencies in the area to open self-censorship and make changes, strictly prohibiting the provision of services for virtual currency transactions, and taking measures to prevent trade routes from being used for virtual currency transactions.
1月12日，中國互聯網金融協會發表了題目為《關於防范變相ICO活動的風險提示》(下稱《提示)》的公告，呼吁廣大消費者和投資者認清相關模式的本質，增強風險防范意識，理性投資，不要盲目跟風炒作。《提示》還點名了迅雷集團所發布的數字貨幣“鏈克”(原“玩客幣”)，稱其“代替了對參與者貢獻服務的法幣付款義務，本質上是一種融資行為，是變相ICO”。
On January 12, the China Internet Financial Association issued an announcement entitled "A Risk Alert for Protection against ICO Activities" (hereinafter referred to as "the Hint" ), calling on the wider consumer and investor to understand the nature of the relevant model, increase risk awareness, invest rationally, and not blindly. The Hint also named the digital currency “chain” (formerly the “principal currency”) issued by the Thundergroup, calling it “a substitute for the legal currency obligation to pay for the services rendered to the participants, which is inherently an inclusive undertaking and a variant of the ICO”.
蘇寧金融研究院高級研究員洪蜀寧認為，《整改通知》實際上並沒有更新的內容，雖然對虛擬貨幣交易會造成一定不便，但由於國內已禁止場內交易，目前虛擬貨幣的投資者進行的一般都是場外交易，因此這項政策的可操作性不大，隻能禁掉個別知名的、交易量大的虛擬貨幣做市商。
The Senior Researcher of the Sunning Institute of Financial Studies, Hong Yong Ning, argues that the Reorganization Notice does not actually have an updated content and that, although it may be of some inconvenience to virtual currency transactions, because domestic transactions have been banned in the country, the investors in virtual currency are now generally off-the-shelf transactions, so that the policy is not operational enough to stop a well-known, highly traded, virtual currency from doing business.
郭宇航也認為，《整改通知》對場外交易的作用很有限，而此前虛擬貨幣領域最重要的政策——對ICO“一刀切”——已經落地數月，更多代幣項目在場外交易，甚至是國外交易平台上交易，由此加劇很多虛擬貨幣項目的風險。“一些小型交易所‘卷幣跑’的情況逐漸出現，根本沒價值的‘空氣幣’泛濫，大家都是撈一把就走的心態。”
Kwok also believes that the Reorganization Notice has had a limited impact on off-site transactions, and that the most important policy in the virtual currency domain — “one size fits all” — has been on the ground for months now, with more intergenerational transactions taking place outside the field, even on foreign trading platforms, thereby putting a lot of risks in the form of virtual currency. “The emergence of small exchanges ‘rolling’, which are nothing more than worthless ‘air money’, has been the focus of all of us.”
虛擬貨幣的技術特性決定了監管總是滯后的，那麼以往採取的監管政策可以為未來的監管提供哪些參考？
The technical characteristics of virtual currency determine that supervision is always poor, so what are the references to future supervision that have been introduced in the past?
洪蜀寧認為，虛擬貨幣作為區塊鏈技術的重要產物有著巨大的市場需求，強行禁止隻能阻攔一時，不可能阻擋技術發展的腳步。“監管部門應當靜下心來認真研究區塊鏈和虛擬貨幣，研究真正的技術應用和欺詐行為之間的差別。”
According to Hong Jinning, virtual currency as an important product of regional chain technology has a huge market demand, and it is impossible to block technological development by imposing a ban on just one moment. “Guidance should be careful about the difference between genuine technical applications and fraudulent practices.”
郭宇航也建議，對虛擬貨幣的監管應該更多考慮“疏”的可能，例如，通過一個監管所信任的機構，在小范圍內試行代幣交易，嚴格把控交易流程和人員，嚴格篩選交易幣種。“有一個出口讓大家能夠正規交易，把它放在陽光下。”
Kwok also suggested that oversight of virtual currency should be given greater consideration to the possibility of “leaping” through, for example, a body trusted by a regulator, trading in tokens within a narrow range, strictly controlling the transaction process and personnel, and strictly selecting the currency. “There is an exit that allows people to deal properly and put it in the sun.”
鄧建鵬認為，私人或企業發行的虛擬貨幣與國家金融監管體系之間，在之后的很長一段時間內恐怕都可能是天然對立的。但他在之前也預測過，關閉國內的比特幣交易機構后，最終監管力量可能會因為難以管制場外交易，而出現新規。
According to Dunjian, the virtual currency of private or corporate development and the national financial regulatory system may be a natural confrontation for a long time to come. He had also predicted that, after closing down the country’s Bitcoin trading structure, the ultimate control might be new rules because it was difficult to control off-site transactions.
在武長海看來，在“ICO一刀切”以后，虛擬貨幣的監管方面還面臨一大挑戰：由於區塊鏈和虛擬貨幣可以超越國界線，而各國政府對待虛擬貨幣的態度並不一致，放鬆監管的國家也許能就此獲得額外收益。“所以說從長遠來看，各國還應當協同監管，防止監管套利。”（記者 王林 實習生 竇彤輝）
As far as the sea is concerned, there is still a major challenge to the regulation of virtual currency after the “ICO one-size-fits-all”: since regional chains and virtual currency can go beyond national lines, governments may not agree on the treatment of virtual currency, and countries that relax custody may receive extra benefits. “So, in the long run, countries should also work together to prevent the regulation of arbitrage.” (Reporter King Lin interrogatories)
互金協會發布境外ICO、“虛擬貨幣”交易風險提示
國內比特幣平台關停進入倒計時
When the national bitcoin platform shuts down into the countdown
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